Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Northern Munkee]

majordad said:

You're right, I missed five of them and I'm not even in the UK. Some surprising ones when I checked my answer.

I wonder, if that question was asked of some of the more recent members what percentage would omit the UK ?

Eventually failure to be able to name all 28, pledge allegiance to the flag, name all the presidents and the 4 freedoms and all the articles will necessitate reporting to a reeducation camp for reindoctrination, Comrade Citizen.

[The Don of Croy]

Welshbeef said:

Bobajobbob said:

It is a little bit scarey when the Eurozone is confused with the EU. I wonder what proportion of the country could actually tell the difference?

I'd imagine 95% of the UK population couldn't name all 28 members

I can't even name three members of Take That.

There again, there's a vanishingly small number of UK MPs who even read the Treaties they all voted on for EEC/EU membership...

[Digga]

Welshbeef said:

Bobajobbob said:

It is a little bit scarey when the Eurozone is confused with the EU. I wonder what proportion of the country could actually tell the difference?

I'd imagine 95% of the UK population couldn't name all 28 members

29 if you include Goldman Sachs.

[B'stard Child]

Digga said:

Welshbeef said:

Bobajobbob said:

It is a little bit scarey when the Eurozone is confused with the EU. I wonder what proportion of the country could actually tell the difference?

I'd imagine 95% of the UK population couldn't name all 28 members

29 if you include Goldman Sachs.

[Digga]

Euro area private sector credit flows turning negative:

[loafer123]

Likely a combination of tight regulatory capital rules pushing up margins and making loans less attractive and nervousness from lenders about whether they want to take on more debt at a time when everyone is talking about risks and uncertainty rather than opportunities and investment.

[LongQ]

Digga said:

Euro area private sector credit flows turning negative:

Well, current favourite "Blame for everything" is Brexit so we might as well make the association here.

Of course it is clear to all, I hope, that Brexit is another of those wonderful "The dog at my homework" excuses that can be offered up for any and every perceived problem.

In the news in recent weeks has been the concept that, medically, some people are, apparently, successfully "treated" by placebos rather then real chemicals and the effect persists even if they know they are taking a placebo.

It occurs to me that there are potential parallels with economics.

The downside in both cases may be that, eventually the patient will pass away, if not through illness then through "natural causes."

Or sometimes events outside their control - accident, murder, some sort of violent incident related to a form of warfare.

Perhaps, in human terms, those are also "Natural causes".

Edited by LongQ on Thursday 27th October 20:43

[Steffan]

Well I have been reading with considerable interest, and a number of  personal chuckles,  the various comments, considerations and predictions that have been added to this thread over the last few weeks. I have found, that the general appreciation on here, of the reality of the length of time that the UK Brexit is almost bound to take, is  beginning to be reflected  in the comments on here. The UK is definitely, a very long way, indeed, from effecting the intended exit. 

Very good to see the number of comments from LongQ, Welshbeef, Digga, The_Don_Of_Croy, B'stard Child and many others all contributing to the mood of the thread. Like it or not it will take the UK years of negotiation to exit membership of the EU and the requirements of ensuring a substantially, fair and equitable settlement are bound to require years of discussion before any equitable settlement is reached, if in fact such a settlement is reached, in the future.

I have been recording my concerns on this thread for some time, that the very visible and obvious economic difficulties that the EU is facing in attempting to continue to disguise the constant bailouts of Greece, Italy and the other failing states within the EU so that this continues to pass unnoticed, is in my view not actually a sustainable position.  For that reason I cannot see the EU holding this together for long enough for our exit to be continued for the considerable time that the current negotiations by the UK, suggest could be required?

Greece is coming up to to the review of its fourth bailout in the last eight years and, once again more and more totally unaffordable and therefore unrecoverable debt  'lent' by the EU will be required with no realistic recovery by the EU of any of that debt.  Does seem downright stupid to me!

Given that the other failing states within the EU are also visibly, no more solvent now, than they were when their financial troubles were identified many years ago and that Deutsche Bank is in the mess, that it is, with no current signs of any improvement and the monumental historic losses locked within the French banks and within the Italian banks, which nether France nor Italy, can possibly sustain, I really am beginning to think that in reality the EU difficulties are beginning to slide out of control and that is likely to be where the crunch comes?

I am interested to hear the opinions of others on this proposition? Can the EU actually manage to pretend that a fourth bailout for Greece is actually an economically viable proposition given the ineffective failures of the last three bail outs? I just cannot see that this is viable given the history to date? But I am interested to hear the views of others on here!

[anonymous-user]

They will keep shovelling the st down the road until the markets force their hand. I see no signs yet of the Markets wanting to kill the Euro.

The only way I see the Euro collapsing, is if there is a political collapse within the EU, or the big players make a play and kill it.

[loafer123]

I disagree.

The EU is highly incentivised to get a deal settled with the UK within 2 years of A50 so they can focus their attention on their own gathering storm.

I am sure the deal will be made to look optically horrible for us when described to their own populations, and financial services in particular will lose passporting, but overall it will be neutral for tariffs and the reality will be equivalence for financial services where they have to take EU regulations no matter what ( just as any export into the EU has to abide by their regulations ) because that is what they are offering to the wider world and life will continue largely as before.

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

[Digga]

loafer123 said:

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

I think we've seen that with the Wallonian veto of the EU-Canada trade deal.

Clearly someone 'helped' the Walloons to see sense. I'd love to know how, but we'll never find out.

[rdjohn]

loafer123 said:

The EU is highly incentivised to get a deal settled with the UK within 2 years of A50 so they can focus their attention on their own gathering storm.

I am sure the deal will be made to look optically horrible for us when described to their own populations, and financial services in particular will lose passporting, but overall it will be neutral for tariffs and the reality will be equivalence for financial services where they have to take EU regulations no matter what ( just as any export into the EU has to abide by their regulations ) because that is what they are offering to the wider world and life will continue largely as before.

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

I agree that this is the most likely scenario for the single market.

The bigger stumbling block is freedom of movement. I do not believe that the most ardent Brexiters were ever voting to leave the single market. Most people were trying to balance their perceived benefits of being in the single market against their perceived detriments of freedom of movement - Competition for jobs, suppression of wage increases, pressures on housing and public services.

All the EU posturing will be primarily about this issue. Relaxing this requirement would have huge Political consequences for the 27 and it will be this that will cause delays.

Meanwhile the status quo is likely to remain. Unless the UK unilaterally declares an end to FoM, logically in March 2019 - and then sparks will really start to fly.

[maffski]

Digga said:

loafer123 said:

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

I think we've seen that with the Wallonian veto of the EU-Canada trade deal.

Clearly someone 'helped' the Walloons to see sense. I'd love to know how, but we'll never find out.

My understanding is the Walloons have been told they can write a 'clarification' to the trade agreement. And that the Canadians have been told this 'clarification' has no legal standing and will be put in the back of a filing cabinet and ignored.

[QuantumTokoloshi]

maffski said:

Digga said:

loafer123 said:

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

I think we've seen that with the Wallonian veto of the EU-Canada trade deal.

Clearly someone 'helped' the Walloons to see sense. I'd love to know how, but we'll never find out.

My understanding is the Walloons have been told they can write a 'clarification' to the trade agreement. And that the Canadians have been told this 'clarification' has no legal standing and will be put in the back of a filing cabinet and ignored.

Reminds me of the Cameron "deal of the century" with the EU, file under "recycling".

[johnfm]

Still amazed the EURO is still kicking really. Has Greece & Italy been sorted already? Did I miss it?

[Enricogto]

I am still interested to see any details of this fabled Italian bailout....

Meanwhile out there, http://fortune.com/2016/05/16/hsbc-jobs-layoffs/, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/28/rbs-slips-to-a-loss-as-misconduct-and-restructuring-costs-weigh/

[B'stard Child]

Enricogto said:

I am still interested to see any details of this fabled Italian bailout....

Meanwhile out there, http://fortune.com/2016/05/16/hsbc-jobs-layoffs/, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/28/rbs-slips-to-a-loss-as-misconduct-and-restructuring-costs-weigh/

Not sure what you did with those links

HSBC Jobs Layoff

RBS Slips to a loss

I think I've fixed them

[Digga]

QuantumTokoloshi said:

maffski said:

Digga said:

loafer123 said:

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

I think we've seen that with the Wallonian veto of the EU-Canada trade deal.

Clearly someone 'helped' the Walloons to see sense. I'd love to know how, but we'll never find out.

My understanding is the Walloons have been told they can write a 'clarification' to the trade agreement. And that the Canadians have been told this 'clarification' has no legal standing and will be put in the back of a filing cabinet and ignored.

Reminds me of the Cameron "deal of the century" with the EU, file under "recycling".

For those who think the EU is 'all' about free trade, the power of one area of one country to use veto, out of a small-minded prejudice, to derail an international trade deal is worrying and demonstrative of the tensions and complications that such a large trade area can bring.

[Guybrush]

How it's not at least 3 euros to the pound I don't know. I'd be interested in the explanation.

[bigweb]

Guybrush said:

How it's not at least 3 euros to the pound I don't know. I'd be interested in the explanation.

I don't know if this is a joke but I honestly do think this!