Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Andy Zarse]

France, by the by. Her economy is really continuing to struggle to keep its head above la mer, despite all the QE.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2016/11...

This bit grabbed me; "...while France’s equivalent (total) debt is around 280% of GDP, up 66% (since 2007). This tally ignores unfunded pension and health-care obligations, as well as contingent commitments to euro zone bailouts.

[Steffan]

Driller said:

This Autumn maybe?

Just a short quip!?

Andy Zarse is right on the button wth his French concerns!

Very interesting situation developing in the governance of our country. What price Democracy?

The plot really is beginning to thicken and as Driller suggests this Autumn maybe?

I am becoming increasingly disposed to ancipating that the Brexit timing may be overtaken by the beginnings of the reality of the problems facing the majority of EU states, becoming more and more apparent! I do not think that the EU can keep this going.

But the personal incomes, gravy train membership and Personal aggrandisements and appeareances at the EU junkets for freeloading, depends upon these nonsenses being continued for as long as it possibly can be. Very interesting times we live in, if somewhat challenging on how to personally weather the ominous storm approaching!

[chris watton]

Steffan said:

Driller said:

This Autumn maybe?

But the personal incomes, gravy train membership and Personal aggrandisements and appeareances at the EU junkets for freeloading, depends upon these nonsenses being continued for as long as it possibly can be. Very interesting times we live in, if somewhat challenging on how to personally weather the ominous storm approaching!

The above is why I do not think it will ever stop unless the people physically take the power away from them by revolution, which may be hardly likely right now, but you never know...

ETA - I truly believe that those in power would rather see the whole of the EU in flames before relinquishing their power.

[FN2TypeR]

Andy Zarse said:

France, by the by. Her economy is really continuing to struggle to keep its head above la mer, despite all the QE.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2016/11...

This bit grabbed me; "...while France’s equivalent (total) debt is around 280% of GDP, up 66% (since 2007). This tally ignores unfunded pension and health-care obligations, as well as contingent commitments to euro zone bailouts.

The last bit sounds more or less like the UK to be honest.

[B'stard Child]

chris watton said:

Steffan said:

Driller said:

This Autumn maybe?

But the personal incomes, gravy train membership and Personal aggrandisements and appeareances at the EU junkets for freeloading, depends upon these nonsenses being continued for as long as it possibly can be. Very interesting times we live in, if somewhat challenging on how to personally weather the ominous storm approaching!

The above is why I do not think it will ever stop unless the people physically take the power away from them by revolution, which may be hardly likely right now, but you never know...

ETA - I truly believe that those in power would rather see the whole of the EU in flames before relinquishing their power.

When their printer runs out of paper......... Then they'll take what they can carry and run

[Driller]

Steffan said:

Driller said:

This Autumn maybe?

Just a short quip!?

I'm afraid your epic prediction leaves you open to all quips, short, long and medium Steffan

In the meantime I'll give you, it's certainly interesting times

[tumble dryer]

jshell said:

QuantumTokoloshi said:

maffski said:

Digga said:

loafer123 said:

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

I think we've seen that with the Wallonian veto of the EU-Canada trade deal.

Clearly someone 'helped' the Walloons to see sense. I'd love to know how, but we'll never find out.

My understanding is the Walloons have been told they can write a 'clarification' to the trade agreement. And that the Canadians have been told this 'clarification' has no legal standing and will be put in the back of a filing cabinet and ignored.

Reminds me of the Cameron "deal of the century" with the EU, file under "recycling".

Would they be the same people who persuaded the never-to-give-up Greek Finance Minister, to, well, give up? ..for personal reasons...

I knew there had to be more to the quick exit stage left; spill. (Apologies, I've been Dextracted) Of course I realise it will all be rumor.

Linky?

[hidetheelephants]

Digga said:

jsf said:

I don't agree. It's far too frightening a prospect for the average Italian to leave the Euro.

I can definitely see the Euro elite being even more persuasive than they were with Varoufakis.

Will the likes of Draghi change their minds when the horses heads start turning up in their beds?

[Digga]

hidetheelephants said:

Digga said:

jsf said:

I don't agree. It's far too frightening a prospect for the average Italian to leave the Euro.

I can definitely see the Euro elite being even more persuasive than they were with Varoufakis.

Will the likes of Draghi change their minds when the horses heads start turning up in their beds?

I wonder what the official Cosa Nostra line is going to be for the Italian referendum? Has their press officer made any announcements yet?

I think we know which way the Lega Nord will vote anyway.

[jshell]

tumble dryer said:

jshell said:

QuantumTokoloshi said:

maffski said:

Digga said:

loafer123 said:

The EU may be irrational, but the pragmatism of the politicians will prevail.

I think we've seen that with the Wallonian veto of the EU-Canada trade deal.

Clearly someone 'helped' the Walloons to see sense. I'd love to know how, but we'll never find out.

My understanding is the Walloons have been told they can write a 'clarification' to the trade agreement. And that the Canadians have been told this 'clarification' has no legal standing and will be put in the back of a filing cabinet and ignored.

Reminds me of the Cameron "deal of the century" with the EU, file under "recycling".

Would they be the same people who persuaded the never-to-give-up Greek Finance Minister, to, well, give up? ..for personal reasons...

I knew there had to be more to the quick exit stage left; spill. (Apologies, I've been Dextracted) Of course I realise it will all be rumor.

Linky?

No link, just suspicions that a key player, highly motivated to see through the management of the Greek economy suddenly stood down. It was suspicious, it was sudden, too sudden at a key point in negotiations that I believe someone was deffo 'got at'! Time may tell, but the Euro experiment must be kept on the tracks at all costs...

[Steffan]

Well no one can say, we do not live in challenging and changing times. The Government has changed signifcanty, in direct rconsequence to the Brexit result, albeit with some policians leaving politics, some politicians losing their government portfolios, some Policians (viz Boris!) gaining portfolios and the Prime Minister changing from Caneron, who I did not support, to Theresa May who I hope proves as resolute as she appears to be. Changing times indeed and not just for the UK and Europe!

By this time tomorrow we will (probably) have some idea as to where the USA has determined their country is going, politically. I am bound to say that I have come to intensely distrust and dislike the Clinton Saga with all the nefarious actives, that such American politics seems to involve! To my mind the concept of Donad Trump as President is just too awful to contempate. I rather think that the combination of the distrust in the USA in all politcans and the really dire reality of the actual candidates that have been put forward by the American system, is a damning indightment of Amercan Politics.I wish the electorate in the USA the best of luck in their dire choices!

Returning to the subject of this thread, we are really beginning, at last, to get some idea of just how complex the reality of Brexit must inevitably be. The sheer extent and magnitude, of the profound complexities is finally beginning to dawn, in all it's consequences, upon the Politicians and Law Makers in this country. It is going to be a very long and very drawn out process and we are looking at many years of negotiations before Brexit can be totally effected. However I still believe that Brexit is very much our future. My real concern now is that the increainly visible failings of thebinsolvent states, now locked within the Euro is beginning to dawn upon the economists.

Thus this article makes vey interesting reading I think, see:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37859684

I have been banging on about the impossibility of Draghi being abe to keep up this crockery. My concern now is that the bindings of the Euro and EU simply cannot contain this problem. Can we get out before the crunch comes,Is becoming my concern? What, I wonder do others think?

Edited by Steffan on Monday 7th November 19:11

[RYH64E]

Steffan said:

Well no one can say, we do not live in challenging and changing times.

And still the euro keeps chugging on and on...

[loafer123]

RYH64E said:

Steffan said:

Well no one can say, we do not live in challenging and changing times.

And still the euro keeps chugging on and on...

It's like a car with a fatal engine fault.

It keeps going until suddenly it doesn't.

[RYH64E]

loafer123 said:

RYH64E said:

Steffan said:

Well no one can say, we do not live in challenging and changing times.

And still the euro keeps chugging on and on...

It's like a car with a fatal engine fault.

It keeps going until suddenly it doesn't.

To use your analogy, there's a full time team of mechanics on hand to patch it up and make sure it keeps chugging on.

[loafer123]

RYH64E said:

loafer123 said:

RYH64E said:

Steffan said:

Well no one can say, we do not live in challenging and changing times.

And still the euro keeps chugging on and on...

It's like a car with a fatal engine fault.

It keeps going until suddenly it doesn't.

To use your analogy, there's a full time team of mechanics on hand to patch it up and make sure it keeps chugging on.

Except they are using used parts from lots of different manufacturers and a lot of duct tape...

[Digga]

loafer123 said:

RYH64E said:

loafer123 said:

RYH64E said:

Steffan said:

Well no one can say, we do not live in challenging and changing times.

And still the euro keeps chugging on and on...

It's like a car with a fatal engine fault.

It keeps going until suddenly it doesn't.

To use your analogy, there's a full time team of mechanics on hand to patch it up and make sure it keeps chugging on.

Except they are using used parts from lots of different manufacturers and a lot of duct tape...

When there's oil in the water and smoke blowing from the exhaust, is it still running or merely at the beginning of the end?

Steffan said:

Prime Minister changing from Caneron, who I did not support, to Theresa May who I hope proves as resolute as she appears to be.../quote]
I'd tend to agree with this. IMHO she has already proved herself far tougher and more effective than Cameron.

[RYH64E]

loafer123 said:

RYH64E said:

loafer123 said:

RYH64E said:

Steffan said:

Well no one can say, we do not live in challenging and changing times.

And still the euro keeps chugging on and on...

It's like a car with a fatal engine fault.

It keeps going until suddenly it doesn't.

To use your analogy, there's a full time team of mechanics on hand to patch it up and make sure it keeps chugging on.

Except they are using used parts from lots of different manufacturers and a lot of duct tape...

New parts, old parts, makeshift parts, whatever, it still keeps chugging on.

I rather suspect that the euro will outlast me, the EU has too much at stake in the currency to ever let it fail, so as long as the EU continues...

[superlightr]

the car may still chug on but the road ahead is running out and all that is left is Beachy Head the car may swerve around a bit over the 7 sisters but it will veer of over the cliff with the lighthouse blinking in the background warning all those that wish to see that the edge is approaching.

[jjlynn27]

superlightr said:

the car may still chug on but the road ahead is running out and all that is left is Beachy Head the car may swerve around a bit over the 7 sisters but it will veer of over the cliff with the lighthouse blinking in the background warning all those that wish to see that the edge is approaching.

Didn't that 'road ahead' start to run out 5 years ago, according to this thread? But it's imminent now, yes?

[Digga]

jjlynn27 said:

Didn't that 'road ahead' start to run out 5 years ago, according to this thread? But it's imminent now, yes?

Who knows?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/brexit-coul...