Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Seems no punches were pulled to ensure a positive result:
http://www.politico.eu/article/5-ways-renzi-tried-...
http://www.politico.eu/article/5-ways-renzi-tried-...
911gary said:
If this doesn't sink it nothing will Le Penn next!
Just another Italian political crisis to add to the long string of them. For once I have to agree with the EU technocrats when they say this is a domestic issue. The Euro will waver a bit and then bounce back because nothing has changed.People are saying the Italian result was another success for people-power, but the reforms they have just voted down would have seriously curbed the strength of the entrenched elite who are now rubbing their hands with glee. You only have to look at the unholy alliance that was the 'No' campaign to see that this was vested interests at work to trigger another general election.
A result achieved for the wrong reason - a vote on a premier's popularity rather than a critique of the measures he was proposing, but then Renzi made it personal by stating in advance he would resign if it was a 'no', so that overshadowed the debate.
Edited by r11co on Monday 5th December 12:26
Digga said:
Except for the small problem of the Italian banks, teetering on the brink and still owing French banks about 250b Euro.
As I said, the result hasn't changed that, and if anything a short-term fall in the Euro would be a big help for Italy in that respect.Edited by r11co on Monday 5th December 12:31
r11co said:
500000000000000L at the rate they went in at (2000L/€)
Conversion rate was something I did wonder and couldn't remember. I do remember filling out triplicate Priority Payment forms to Italian firms, in the dim and distant past.I think the issue which is still dynamic is the uncertainty around the Italian banks. I do wonder whether that has changed?
Digga said:
xcept for the small problem of the Italian banks, teetering on the brink and still owing French banks about 250b Euro.
As a UK citizen seeing the French on he ropes for £250billion to the Italians is somewhat amusing. It also flags up that BREXIT in the grand scheme of things is pretty minor and hey should stop having a cock measuring contest and get to sorting out a realistic deal rather than screwing both sides over.
Digga said:
I think the issue which is still dynamic is the uncertainty around the Italian banks. I do wonder whether that has changed?
Yes, the uncertainty is now significantly worse. Or perhaps less in that it's more certain that the banks are in trouble. Italy's little better off than Greece now and could soon be worse off. Way to go, EU!!
REALIST123 said:
Yes, the uncertainty is now significantly worse. Or perhaps less in that it's more certain that the banks are in trouble. Italy's little better off than Greece now and could soon be worse off.
Which would still have been the case had this referendum never happened. Too many 'what-if's, but one thing that is for certain is that the constitutional reforms that have just been rejected would have given someone in Italy the levers to sort things out had they been so motivated.Contrary to how this election has been portrayed it has actually played straight into the hands of the political elite in Italy who now sit entrenched and untouchable in the upper house while those taking part in the broken party system can continue to dream about one day forming an effective government. Hasn't happened yet since WW2 and I am not holding my breath.
There are those who are saying that with Renzi out the way there is scope for an anti-EU party to take over. Take one look at how polarised the 'no' campaign was and ask yourself how likely that really is.
r11co said:
Which would still have been the case had this referendum never happened.
Not so sure.r11co said:
Too many 'what-if's, but one thing that is for certain is that the constitutional reforms that have just been rejected would have given someone in Italy the levers to sort things out had they been so motivated.
Not really. They're still hamstrung by EU rules on state bail-ins to banks. They can make the odd exception, but in order to bail out the whole sector, they're going to have to act and ask for forgiveness rather than permission. Hopeful at best and unlikely to go down well with the Troika and the Germans.FN2TypeR said:
Why is the pound now down on the euro compared to yesterday? 
I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
Oh I don't know - any significant activity happening in the UK which is likely to have an input regarding markets??I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
I couldn't think of one but markets seem to have decided to plan for the worst case senario result regardless of the predicted result since they got Court out on June 24th
I'm not saying it's true for all Case but Prior to June 24th they appeared to take their lead from polling data.....
B'stard Child said:
FN2TypeR said:
Why is the pound now down on the euro compared to yesterday?
I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
Oh I don't know - any significant activity happening in the UK which is likely to have an input regarding markets??I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
I couldn't think of one but markets seem to have decided to plan for the worst case senario result regardless of the predicted result since they got Court out on June 24th
I'm not saying it's true for all Case but Prior to June 24th they appeared to take their lead from polling data.....
One would think they'd price it in at least 30 mins before.
philv said:
B'stard Child said:
FN2TypeR said:
Why is the pound now down on the euro compared to yesterday?
I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
Oh I don't know - any significant activity happening in the UK which is likely to have an input regarding markets??I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
I couldn't think of one but markets seem to have decided to plan for the worst case senario result regardless of the predicted result since they got Court out on June 24th
I'm not saying it's true for all Case but Prior to June 24th they appeared to take their lead from polling data.....
One would think they'd price it in at least 30 mins before.
r11co said:
£ was trading around 3000L at the time and had been fairly stable for around two decades before then. Puts things into perspective a little.
Some 30 years ago I remember the lira flactuating 2200 to 2500.Edited by r11co on Monday 5th December 13:35
I'm a retailer and at that time I was buying clothing and footwear at competitive prices from Italy,Spain and Portugal.
The euro I believe has exacerbated the problems for those countries at least with control over their own currencies they were able to adjust the rate to improve their competitiveness and also encourage tourism.
However I was also able to get stuff made up in GB that was also competitive.
All that has changed over the past 30 years,all gone to China and India etc.
So much for globalisation,never understood how GB and Europe could compete with those countries with huge populations willing or having to work for tuppence an hour.
Edited by avinalarf on Monday 5th December 15:56
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