Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Art0ir said:
Their deficit is shrinking to 0.9%, an enviable number amongst the G20 nevermind the Eurozone. They're also meeting the targets set out by the Department of Finance year on year and are set to be in surplus by 2018. In fact they reduced the deficit more this year than they had planned for.
Most of the bailout loans have or are being refinanced using market lenders.
Their youth unemployment is 15%, only 2 points higher than the UK's 13% and a reduction from almost 20% this time last year.
Brexit certainly offers some challenges.
But you're dire predictions for the country are completely unfounded so long as the multinationals stick around.
Well,that's one out of seven if we take your view that everything is now wonderful.Most of the bailout loans have or are being refinanced using market lenders.
Their youth unemployment is 15%, only 2 points higher than the UK's 13% and a reduction from almost 20% this time last year.
Brexit certainly offers some challenges.
But you're dire predictions for the country are completely unfounded so long as the multinationals stick around.
Try Greece next.
Art0ir said:
Welshbeef said:
It's in deficit
It has £80billion bail out
It has high youth unemployment
It is facing a risk on BREXIT
Their deficit is shrinking to 0.9%, an enviable number amongst the G20 nevermind the Eurozone. They're also meeting the targets set out by the Department of Finance year on year and are set to be in surplus by 2018. In fact they reduced the deficit more this year than they had planned for.It has £80billion bail out
It has high youth unemployment
It is facing a risk on BREXIT
Most of the bailout loans have or are being refinanced using market lenders.
Their youth unemployment is 15%, only 2 points higher than the UK's 13% and a reduction from almost 20% this time last year.
Brexit certainly offers some challenges.
But you're dire predictions for the country are completely unfounded so long as the multinationals stick around.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/mass-you...
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/generatio...
http://claredaly.ie/latest-emigration-figures-show...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-2268...
Cheers,
Tony
Art0ir said:
Welshbeef said:
It's in deficit
It has £80billion bail out
It has high youth unemployment
It is facing a risk on BREXIT
Their deficit is shrinking to 0.9%, an enviable number amongst the G20 nevermind the Eurozone. They're also meeting the targets set out by the Department of Finance year on year and are set to be in surplus by 2018. In fact they reduced the deficit more this year than they had planned for.It has £80billion bail out
It has high youth unemployment
It is facing a risk on BREXIT
Most of the bailout loans have or are being refinanced using market lenders.
Their youth unemployment is 15%, only 2 points higher than the UK's 13% and a reduction from almost 20% this time last year.
Brexit certainly offers some challenges.
But you're dire predictions for the country are completely unfounded so long as the multinationals stick around.
Add in the issues with getting their goods to mainland Europe if the EU play silly buggers with the Brexit deal, that's Ireland even more screwed. They currently get free use of our road network, that will stop if the EU play hard ball.
I would suggest Ireland are at far more risk than the UK with Brexit, they would be wise to make that point in the negotiations.
Funkycoldribena said:
Well,that's one out of seven if we take your view that everything is now wonderful.
Try Greece next.
Either I'm not posting with as much frequency as I used to or you weren't around for vol. 1 & 2. I'm no proponent of the Euro or even the EU as an institution. Try Greece next.
I posted plenty of graphs, figures, articles and opinions on this forum when Ireland was up s
t creek.Within the past week I'm pretty sure I've posted on this very thread that Italy and France are Greece with a borrowed suit on.
I'm simply challenging the assessment that Ireland is structurally as screwed. They had their crash and reset already remember. The big banks already went bust. The ECB f
ked them over so the contagion wouldn't spread and the big European banks could continue the can kicking.They took it hard but they took it nonetheless and are now reaping the (modest) rewards.
Are they secure for the next 20 years? Most certainly not.
Compared with the rest of Europe are they looking pretty good for 2017? Beyond a doubt.
Tony427 said:
It's easy to get youth unemployment down when you export your children.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/mass-you...
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/generatio...
http://claredaly.ie/latest-emigration-figures-show...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-2268...
Cheers,
Tony
Would be stupid to deny the social and economic effects mass emigration had had on the country for sure. I'll reiterate, I'm not defending the long term security of Ireland, only their present day economic situation.http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/mass-you...
http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/generatio...
http://claredaly.ie/latest-emigration-figures-show...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-2268...
Cheers,
Tony
jsf said:
With the EU actively coming after these multinationals in Ireland, are they going to stick around post Brexit? If the UK go aggressively for that tax income Ireland are screwed. We already have McDonalds moving to the UK this last week.
Add in the issues with getting their goods to mainland Europe if the EU play silly buggers with the Brexit deal, that's Ireland even more screwed. They currently get free use of our road network, that will stop if the EU play hard ball.
I would suggest Ireland are at far more risk than the UK with Brexit, they would be wise to make that point in the negotiations.
You're spot on. They have a very fine line to walk over the next few years. Right now market access is incredibly important to them to attract the multinationals. Add in the issues with getting their goods to mainland Europe if the EU play silly buggers with the Brexit deal, that's Ireland even more screwed. They currently get free use of our road network, that will stop if the EU play hard ball.
I would suggest Ireland are at far more risk than the UK with Brexit, they would be wise to make that point in the negotiations.
If the EU come after them over tax, they could leave but then may not have the access required. That being said, an English speaking country with a secure democracy and stable economy may be enough anyway if the McDonald's example is anything to go by.
Regardless I would hope the Irish and British governments are in regular conversation about the next 5-10 years.
Edited by Art0ir on Sunday 11th December 19:40
Art0ir said:
Their deficit is shrinking to 0.9%, an enviable number amongst the G20 nevermind the Eurozone. They're also meeting the targets set out by the Department of Finance year on year and are set to be in surplus by 2018. In fact they reduced the deficit more this year than they had planned for.
Most of the bailout loans have or are being refinanced using market lenders.
Their youth unemployment is 15%, only 2 points higher than the UK's 13% and a reduction from almost 20% this time last year.
Brexit certainly offers some challenges.
But your dire predictions for the country are completely unfounded so long as the multinationals stick around.
You forgot to add the E13 billion windfall from Apple.Most of the bailout loans have or are being refinanced using market lenders.
Their youth unemployment is 15%, only 2 points higher than the UK's 13% and a reduction from almost 20% this time last year.
Brexit certainly offers some challenges.
But your dire predictions for the country are completely unfounded so long as the multinationals stick around.
Edited by Art0ir on Sunday 11th December 19:37
Ireland could stand to gain from Brexit in terms of firms looking to relocate if the UK loses passporting rights, on the other hand their trade with us would become more difficult of course and that potential instability might make companies looking to move away from the UK overlook them incase their economy suffers from any fall out.
Welshbeef said:
Greece basket case subsiding
Not so sure there - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree...Fastdruid said:
Not so sure there - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree...
Good article thanks for posting. Short summary - intransigent Germans vs Socialist Greeks. I think it is pretty telling that articles openly talking about currency splits and highlightig some of the politcal events that may hasten the end of the EU are coming on a regular basis. Not just Bootle/AEP.
In other news, Head of the IMF up for Fraud ?
Gargamel said:
Fastdruid said:
Not so sure there - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree...
Good article thanks for posting. Short summary - intransigent Germans vs Socialist Greeks. I think it is pretty telling that articles openly talking about currency splits and highlightig some of the politcal events that may hasten the end of the EU are coming on a regular basis. Not just Bootle/AEP.
In other news, Head of the IMF up for Fraud ?
Lagarde? I hope I'm wrong but I very much doubt she'll be found guilty, regardless of whether she is or not.
REALIST123 said:
Lagarde? I hope I'm wrong but I very much doubt she'll be found guilty, regardless of whether she is or not.
Not so sure, unlike the French to have let it go to court unless they really wanted it to. Its the compensation payment to Tapie that she approved whilst Finance Minister.
Whole thing screams show trial.
Gargamel said:
REALIST123 said:
Lagarde? I hope I'm wrong but I very much doubt she'll be found guilty, regardless of whether she is or not.
Not so sure, unlike the French to have let it go to court unless they really wanted it to. Its the compensation payment to Tapie that she approved whilst Finance Minister.
Whole thing screams show trial.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/12/imf-hea...
Gargamel said:
REALIST123 said:
Lagarde? I hope I'm wrong but I very much doubt she'll be found guilty, regardless of whether she is or not.
Not so sure, unlike the French to have let it go to court unless they really wanted it to. Its the compensation payment to Tapie that she approved whilst Finance Minister.
Whole thing screams show trial.
Gargamel said:
Fastdruid said:
Not so sure there - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree...
Good article thanks for posting. Short summary - intransigent Germans vs Socialist Greeks. I think it is pretty telling that articles openly talking about currency splits and highlightig some of the politcal events that may hasten the end of the EU are coming on a regular basis. Not just Bootle/AEP.
In other news, Head of the IMF up for Fraud ?
Greek reforms to date and starting with most recent: edited highlights for brevity
13th package - May '16 -
Cuts in new pensions.
Reduction the higher pensions
Increase the insurance contributions
Increase VAT to 24 percent
Higher taxes in all fuels
A range of new taxes, such as coffee and electronic cigarettes.
Tax on tourists staying in hotels from 2 stars and up.
Levy tax in TV subscriptions, landlines and internet broadband connections
12th package - Oct '15 -
Pensions will be calculated as the sum of the basic and contributory pensions.
The minimum age for pensions is universally raised to 67 retroactively from 1 July 2015.
Public sector pensioners receiving reduced pension will suffer from a further 10% decrease in their pensions until they reach the universal minimum pension age. Disability pensions are excluded from this provision.
Non-payment of the OAEE and ETAA social security funds is reinstated as a penal offense
11th package - Aug '15
Diesel fuel tax for farmers going from 6 euros per 1,000 liters to 200 euros/1,000 liters from October 1, 2015, and to 330 euros by October 1, 2016.
Farmers’ income tax to be paid in advance will rise from 27.5 percent to 55 percent.
Income tax for farmers is set to rise from 13 to 20 percent for 2016 and to 26 percent for 2017.
Freelancers will be subject to a gradual increase from 55 to 75 percent in advanced tax payments for income earned in 2015, increasing to 100 percent in 2016. The 2 percent tax break for single payments on income tax is also being abolished from January 1, 2015.
Private education, previously untaxed, will be taxed at 23 percent, including the tutoring schools (frontistiria), but excluding preschools.
10th package - July '15
Transfer of many products in the high rate VAT (23%). 13% rate covers fresh food, energy bills, water and hotel stays. 6% rate covers medicines and press.
Abolition of the VAT discount of 30% for the most touristic Greek islands, after 1 October 2015.
Rise of tax of solidarity for incomes over €50.000
Corporation tax rise from 26% to 29% for small companies
Luxury tax rise
Rise of health contributions paid by pensioners (6% from 4% )
End to early retirement by 2022 and a retirement age increase to 67
and so on through 7 years and 9 previous packages.
Meanwhile lets have a look at how the base diagnosis is faring:
Government spending as GDP% and Government debt as a GDP%
Government debt is still at 176% of GDP.
Government spending as a % is now back up to 55%.
Apart from a very busy 8 years for their litigators, and a reform list spanning some 14 pages on Wikipedia, Greece has very little to show for it, however Schauble continues to chunter on about required reforms:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree... - Dec 16
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/11/18/schaeub... - Nov 16
http://www.wsj.com/articles/german-finance-ministe... - Oct 16
https://www.ft.com/content/03177f72-0327-11e6-9cc4... - Apr 16
http://www.ekathimerini.com/206765/article/ekathim... - Mar 16
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/sch%C3... - July 15
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/schauble-refus... - Feb 15
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30629269 - Dec 14
William Hague described the Euro as a burning down house with no exit. I beg to differ. For Greece it's like being locked in with a psychopathic BDSM aficionado.
Edited by Ridgemont on Monday 12th December 13:38
Ridgemont said:
Gargamel said:
Fastdruid said:
Not so sure there - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree...
Good article thanks for posting. Short summary - intransigent Germans vs Socialist Greeks. I think it is pretty telling that articles openly talking about currency splits and highlightig some of the politcal events that may hasten the end of the EU are coming on a regular basis. Not just Bootle/AEP.
In other news, Head of the IMF up for Fraud ?
Greek reforms to date and starting with most recent: edited highlights for brevity
13th package - May '16 -
Cuts in new pensions.
Reduction the higher pensions
Increase the insurance contributions
Increase VAT to 24 percent
Higher taxes in all fuels
A range of new taxes, such as coffee and electronic cigarettes.
Tax on tourists staying in hotels from 2 stars and up.
Levy tax in TV subscriptions, landlines and internet broadband connections
12th package - Oct '15 -
Pensions will be calculated as the sum of the basic and contributory pensions.
The minimum age for pensions is universally raised to 67 retroactively from 1 July 2015.
Public sector pensioners receiving reduced pension will suffer from a further 10% decrease in their pensions until they reach the universal minimum pension age. Disability pensions are excluded from this provision.
Non-payment of the OAEE and ETAA social security funds is reinstated as a penal offense
11th package - Aug '15
Diesel fuel tax for farmers going from 6 euros per 1,000 liters to 200 euros/1,000 liters from October 1, 2015, and to 330 euros by October 1, 2016.
Farmers’ income tax to be paid in advance will rise from 27.5 percent to 55 percent.
Income tax for farmers is set to rise from 13 to 20 percent for 2016 and to 26 percent for 2017.
Freelancers will be subject to a gradual increase from 55 to 75 percent in advanced tax payments for income earned in 2015, increasing to 100 percent in 2016. The 2 percent tax break for single payments on income tax is also being abolished from January 1, 2015.
Private education, previously untaxed, will be taxed at 23 percent, including the tutoring schools (frontistiria), but excluding preschools.
10th package - July '15
Transfer of many products in the high rate VAT (23%). 13% rate covers fresh food, energy bills, water and hotel stays. 6% rate covers medicines and press.
Abolition of the VAT discount of 30% for the most touristic Greek islands, after 1 October 2015.
Rise of tax of solidarity for incomes over €50.000
Corporation tax rise from 26% to 29% for small companies
Luxury tax rise
Rise of health contributions paid by pensioners (6% from 4% )
End to early retirement by 2022 and a retirement age increase to 67
and so on through 7 years and 9 previous packages.
Meanwhile lets have a look at how the base diagnosis is faring:
Government spending as GDP% and Government debt as a GDP%
Government debt is still at 176% of GDP.
Government spending as a % is now back up to 55%.
Apart from a very busy 8 years for their litigators, and a reform list spanning some 14 pages on Wikipedia, Greek has very little to show for it, however Schauble continues to chunter on about required reforms:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree... - Dec 16
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/11/18/schaeub... - Nov 16
http://www.wsj.com/articles/german-finance-ministe... - Oct 16
https://www.ft.com/content/03177f72-0327-11e6-9cc4... - Apr 16
http://www.ekathimerini.com/206765/article/ekathim... - Mar 16
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/sch%C3... - July 15
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/schauble-refus... - Feb 15
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30629269 - Dec 14
William Hague described the Euro as a burning down house with no exit. I beg to differ. For Greece it's like being locked in with a psychopathic BDSM aficionado.
I know they have been pushed through parliament but the collection of tax was such a big issue for Greece.
The Greek analysis puts me in mind of the observations last week that Osborne's property tax revisions cost the taxman £500M last year.
I thought this potential effect was very well known around the world and we in the UK had experience of it well within living memory (although perhaps Osborne would be too young to remember.)
Was it not 95% Higher Rate taxes back in the 60s that drove high earners into tax exile?
Is it not similar considerations that have multinationals moving their Tax HQs around the world according to who is offering the best deals for corporation tax?
So how does an extreme version of such tax policy, as advised to Greece, work differently?
I presume they cook all of thins up with some models to support the proposals? Is that too trusting of the professionalism of these people?
I thought this potential effect was very well known around the world and we in the UK had experience of it well within living memory (although perhaps Osborne would be too young to remember.)
Was it not 95% Higher Rate taxes back in the 60s that drove high earners into tax exile?
Is it not similar considerations that have multinationals moving their Tax HQs around the world according to who is offering the best deals for corporation tax?
So how does an extreme version of such tax policy, as advised to Greece, work differently?
I presume they cook all of thins up with some models to support the proposals? Is that too trusting of the professionalism of these people?
gruffalo said:
Ridgemont said:
Gargamel said:
Fastdruid said:
Not so sure there - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree...
Good article thanks for posting. Short summary - intransigent Germans vs Socialist Greeks. I think it is pretty telling that articles openly talking about currency splits and highlightig some of the politcal events that may hasten the end of the EU are coming on a regular basis. Not just Bootle/AEP.
In other news, Head of the IMF up for Fraud ?
Greek reforms to date and starting with most recent: edited highlights for brevity
13th package - May '16 -
Cuts in new pensions.
Reduction the higher pensions
Increase the insurance contributions
Increase VAT to 24 percent
Higher taxes in all fuels
A range of new taxes, such as coffee and electronic cigarettes.
Tax on tourists staying in hotels from 2 stars and up.
Levy tax in TV subscriptions, landlines and internet broadband connections
12th package - Oct '15 -
Pensions will be calculated as the sum of the basic and contributory pensions.
The minimum age for pensions is universally raised to 67 retroactively from 1 July 2015.
Public sector pensioners receiving reduced pension will suffer from a further 10% decrease in their pensions until they reach the universal minimum pension age. Disability pensions are excluded from this provision.
Non-payment of the OAEE and ETAA social security funds is reinstated as a penal offense
11th package - Aug '15
Diesel fuel tax for farmers going from 6 euros per 1,000 liters to 200 euros/1,000 liters from October 1, 2015, and to 330 euros by October 1, 2016.
Farmers’ income tax to be paid in advance will rise from 27.5 percent to 55 percent.
Income tax for farmers is set to rise from 13 to 20 percent for 2016 and to 26 percent for 2017.
Freelancers will be subject to a gradual increase from 55 to 75 percent in advanced tax payments for income earned in 2015, increasing to 100 percent in 2016. The 2 percent tax break for single payments on income tax is also being abolished from January 1, 2015.
Private education, previously untaxed, will be taxed at 23 percent, including the tutoring schools (frontistiria), but excluding preschools.
10th package - July '15
Transfer of many products in the high rate VAT (23%). 13% rate covers fresh food, energy bills, water and hotel stays. 6% rate covers medicines and press.
Abolition of the VAT discount of 30% for the most touristic Greek islands, after 1 October 2015.
Rise of tax of solidarity for incomes over €50.000
Corporation tax rise from 26% to 29% for small companies
Luxury tax rise
Rise of health contributions paid by pensioners (6% from 4% )
End to early retirement by 2022 and a retirement age increase to 67
and so on through 7 years and 9 previous packages.
Meanwhile lets have a look at how the base diagnosis is faring:
Government spending as GDP% and Government debt as a GDP%
Government debt is still at 176% of GDP.
Government spending as a % is now back up to 55%.
Apart from a very busy 8 years for their litigators, and a reform list spanning some 14 pages on Wikipedia, Greek has very little to show for it, however Schauble continues to chunter on about required reforms:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/gree... - Dec 16
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/11/18/schaeub... - Nov 16
http://www.wsj.com/articles/german-finance-ministe... - Oct 16
https://www.ft.com/content/03177f72-0327-11e6-9cc4... - Apr 16
http://www.ekathimerini.com/206765/article/ekathim... - Mar 16
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/sch%C3... - July 15
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/schauble-refus... - Feb 15
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30629269 - Dec 14
William Hague described the Euro as a burning down house with no exit. I beg to differ. For Greece it's like being locked in with a psychopathic BDSM aficionado.
I know they have been pushed through parliament but the collection of tax was such a big issue for Greece.
There have been estimates of non payment was at around 89%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33479946
As the article notes however, the 89.5% relates to historic tax debts.
If Greece is looked at in an international comparisons for *current* debts, assuming tax revenue as a % of GDP actually it looks okish:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by...
39% sat roughly ahead of Spain, but slightly below the Dutch.
Neither here nor there to be honest: generally you can only get people to pony up so much: top 10 taxers.
Denmark 50.8[6]
Belgium 47.9[2]
France 47.9[8]
Sweden 45.8
Cuba 44.8
Finland 43.6
Norway 43.6
Italy 43.5
Austria 43.4
Germany is in 12th position - with 40%, 7 places above Greece.
Meanwhile to put it in context this is how far Greece has grown since 2008:
So Greece is hitting a ceiling of tax take, its government spend is increasing again and its economy is nearly half the size in $ terms than it was 8 years ago.
I tell you what that bunch of slacktards needs. More reform I tell you..
Edited by Ridgemont on Monday 12th December 14:20
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff