Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Digga said:
Welshbeef said:
Gargamel said:
Nothing to do with house prices, in hyperinflation, it is the inability of wages to keep pace with the cost of goods.
When you can grow your own fruit and veg and be self sufficient it's irrelevantThe cost of machinery is often the most significant capital investment for many in the Greek economy, paying more for them because their currency has tanked is not affordable or sustainable.
LongQ said:
Digga said:
Welshbeef said:
Gargamel said:
Nothing to do with house prices, in hyperinflation, it is the inability of wages to keep pace with the cost of goods.
When you can grow your own fruit and veg and be self sufficient it's irrelevantThe cost of machinery is often the most significant capital investment for many in the Greek economy, paying more for them because their currency has tanked is not affordable or sustainable.
Home growing needs a spade borrow one of you don't have one.
Welshbeef said:
Exactly they don't need brand new kit they already have kit so bloody well use it. Sure not as good as new stud but it will get the job done.
Home growing needs a spade borrow one of you don't have one.
Unfortunately, even new 'in warranty' construction plant and agricultural machinery do not run on fresh air (I know, it's how I earn my crust) and parts, spares and attachments will all need to be imported. Add into that sub-optimal maintenance routines - which always increase un-budgeted operating costs - and you'll see there's no miracle or magic bullet.Home growing needs a spade borrow one of you don't have one.
Digga said:
Unfortunately, even new 'in warranty' construction plant and agricultural machinery do not run on fresh air (I know, it's how I earn my crust) and parts, spares and attachments will all need to be imported. Add into that sub-optimal maintenance routines - which always increase un-budgeted operating costs - and you'll see there's no miracle or magic bullet.
I'm talking about tractors to grow food - Water and feed the population is the first requirement then welfare then we go up Mazlows hierarchy of needs. They shout that they are barely surviving... if true then feed and watervthe population first, if not it's lies.
Alot of main land Europe grow their own via a veg plot or have a few chickens if they have the space.Very few do that in the UK so the mind set is different.
Most people in UK wouldn't know how to process a chicken but the story would be different in France,Spain etc.
If push came to shove people could feed themselves and reduce the cost of the weekly shop in Greece and the rest of the basket case economies.
To be self sufficient is hard work,very hard.There is no rest,something always needs doing and it's physically demanding.To go down that road you have to want to drop off the grid or have few options left open too you.
Most people in UK wouldn't know how to process a chicken but the story would be different in France,Spain etc.
If push came to shove people could feed themselves and reduce the cost of the weekly shop in Greece and the rest of the basket case economies.
To be self sufficient is hard work,very hard.There is no rest,something always needs doing and it's physically demanding.To go down that road you have to want to drop off the grid or have few options left open too you.
Welshbeef said:
Digga said:
Unfortunately, even new 'in warranty' construction plant and agricultural machinery do not run on fresh air (I know, it's how I earn my crust) and parts, spares and attachments will all need to be imported. Add into that sub-optimal maintenance routines - which always increase un-budgeted operating costs - and you'll see there's no miracle or magic bullet.
I'm talking about tractors to grow food - Water and feed the population is the first requirement then welfare then we go up Mazlows hierarchy of needs. They shout that they are barely surviving... if true then feed and watervthe population first, if not it's lies.
Carl_Manchester said:
FN2TypeR said:
Why is the pound now down on the euro compared to yesterday? 
I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
a currency trader might hand me my arse here. the computer trading systems won't allow a rise in a straight line. short positions in the £ will keep it buried until there is a weight of short positions being unwound. they call it a relief rally. I appreciate that there is a risk to the UK if any potential fallout/collapse takes place but that's a surprise, to an uninitiated numpty like me.
what happens before fridays trading close is more telling.
6 month short positions on the pound unwind near the end of this month first week in Jan could see bounce.
Lets see what happens first/second week of Jan.
My guess is that the computers are programmed to sell positions at 1.20 so it will be a while before it breaks through that.
Edited by Carl_Manchester on Monday 19th December 10:52
Monte dei Paschi irresistible offer to mom + pop savers: swap your ugly bonds for some shiney shirt buttons!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/18/cru...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/18/cru...
Gargamel said:
Largarde found guilty but not handed any punishment?
Wierd decision, makes a bit of a mockery of the whole process.
Anyway, will we have a new IMF chief by the New Year, after DSK and Lagarde can't see the French getting a look in.
It's typical of the ruling classes these days. No idea how that result can come through.Wierd decision, makes a bit of a mockery of the whole process.
Anyway, will we have a new IMF chief by the New Year, after DSK and Lagarde can't see the French getting a look in.
Wouldn't surprise me if the IMF left her in position too.
Now, where are all the people who sided with her expert view 6mths ago...punishment or no, common crook.
Well, i have now returned from our short sojourn in Lucca, Italy and a very enjoyable and informative visit it was. Good Evening to you all and not a bad evening at all, very umild and not raining. Mildest weather I can remember in December for some years?I
There have been a good many postings on here and I have read through these at some length and some exceptionally good comments have been made. I really am impressed with the quality of some these. Particularly the very detailed and informative economic assessments which have detailed at some length the, probable consequences to the EU/Euro of the failure by the EU to engender any real recovery or growth within the failing EU states.
Good to see Andy Zarse, Long Q, Gargamel, Digga, Welsh Beef and many, many others contributing to this thread and very good to see the significant number of comments on here from many new contributors who have brought a new line of thoughts to the proceedings! I have suggested before on here that there is significantly better information on here in ths this than there is in the mainstream press. All down to the posting of others and I commend you all for this!
On the subject of the timescale of Brexit, it does seem to me, that we have to recognise that the timescale of the changes that are definitely coming to the EU and the UK are so enmeshed by the deeply bureaucratic approach and processing of the EU that there simply cannot be a quick fix (or breakup) for this process.
I think we need to recognise that the Brexit decision has been made and that, in consequence, the UK is coming out of union. Not going to happen quickly, but it is going to happen. Probably within this parliament but also probably some years away?
Two events have occurred in the last few days upon which I would be interested to hear the comments of our contributors.
Firstly, the dreadful business of Ms Lagarde being found guilty of criminal deception, by the French Judiciary. That really does underline the depths to which the IMF has sunk, since Ms Lagarde is still in post and likely to remain so. Utter contempt for all!
When that utter contempt is laid over the facts that her predecessor at the IMF Mr Strauss-Kahn was forced from office following Rape charges and being prosecuted in France for consorting with Prostitutes and that his predecessor at the IMF Rodrigo Rutter is being prosecuted in Spain, for misusing funds In his time running Spanish Banks the credibility of the IMF is at an all time low!!
To bowdlerise Oscar Wylde
"To have one Chief Executive prosecuted for Rape, may be forgivable but to have another prosecuted for fraud is, most certainly not and to then have a further Chief Executive, prosecuted for fraud , is just ridiculous!!
The IMF are typical of modern politics! Rubbish!!! Totally inept and Self serving!
Well now, what is this all leading towards? No quick fixes I suspect. I am still concerned that with the Italian Banks crumbling and Deutsche Bank still rolling in bad debt and the French Banks holding the larger part of the Italian Banks debt there could well be a deeply serious systemic failing of these EU Banks.
What price the Euro, then I wonder. What do others think?.
There have been a good many postings on here and I have read through these at some length and some exceptionally good comments have been made. I really am impressed with the quality of some these. Particularly the very detailed and informative economic assessments which have detailed at some length the, probable consequences to the EU/Euro of the failure by the EU to engender any real recovery or growth within the failing EU states.
Good to see Andy Zarse, Long Q, Gargamel, Digga, Welsh Beef and many, many others contributing to this thread and very good to see the significant number of comments on here from many new contributors who have brought a new line of thoughts to the proceedings! I have suggested before on here that there is significantly better information on here in ths this than there is in the mainstream press. All down to the posting of others and I commend you all for this!
On the subject of the timescale of Brexit, it does seem to me, that we have to recognise that the timescale of the changes that are definitely coming to the EU and the UK are so enmeshed by the deeply bureaucratic approach and processing of the EU that there simply cannot be a quick fix (or breakup) for this process.
I think we need to recognise that the Brexit decision has been made and that, in consequence, the UK is coming out of union. Not going to happen quickly, but it is going to happen. Probably within this parliament but also probably some years away?
Two events have occurred in the last few days upon which I would be interested to hear the comments of our contributors.
Firstly, the dreadful business of Ms Lagarde being found guilty of criminal deception, by the French Judiciary. That really does underline the depths to which the IMF has sunk, since Ms Lagarde is still in post and likely to remain so. Utter contempt for all!
When that utter contempt is laid over the facts that her predecessor at the IMF Mr Strauss-Kahn was forced from office following Rape charges and being prosecuted in France for consorting with Prostitutes and that his predecessor at the IMF Rodrigo Rutter is being prosecuted in Spain, for misusing funds In his time running Spanish Banks the credibility of the IMF is at an all time low!!
To bowdlerise Oscar Wylde
"To have one Chief Executive prosecuted for Rape, may be forgivable but to have another prosecuted for fraud is, most certainly not and to then have a further Chief Executive, prosecuted for fraud , is just ridiculous!!
The IMF are typical of modern politics! Rubbish!!! Totally inept and Self serving!
Well now, what is this all leading towards? No quick fixes I suspect. I am still concerned that with the Italian Banks crumbling and Deutsche Bank still rolling in bad debt and the French Banks holding the larger part of the Italian Banks debt there could well be a deeply serious systemic failing of these EU Banks.
What price the Euro, then I wonder. What do others think?.
The IMF is morally bankrupt.
What is clear is that organisations like Goldman Sachs have huge grip on international banking and politics. In a move that's largely slipped beneath the radar, I see Trump's 'anti establishment' government has already found a role for at least one Goldmanite.
The elite have never had it so good. The question remains as to whether the EU elite can, by cosying up to the great and good, maintain the merry go round in its current form, and without major problems in 2017. Events last night in Germany cast even more doubt.
What is clear is that organisations like Goldman Sachs have huge grip on international banking and politics. In a move that's largely slipped beneath the radar, I see Trump's 'anti establishment' government has already found a role for at least one Goldmanite.
The elite have never had it so good. The question remains as to whether the EU elite can, by cosying up to the great and good, maintain the merry go round in its current form, and without major problems in 2017. Events last night in Germany cast even more doubt.
Digga said:
Events last night in Germany cast even more doubt.
Events are one thing, in the context of this thread though it's reactions to events that are significant. The CDU are already spinning that it's just one event and not a result of Merkel's daft policies. Let's look at that in more detail, 12 people died, but that doesn't matter because it's only 12 people. 12 lives are a small price to pay for having Merkel running the show.Do Germans agree with that? Pragmatically politicians all make decisions that ultimately result in people dying sooner than otherwise one way or another. But where there's clear mistake compounded by poor judgement and deliberate policy choices, where there were clear alternatives, that result in otherwise avoidable deaths then those deaths become pretty inexcusable.
I'm no expert on French and German politics and I've found it pretty much impossible to establish the credentials of any foreign sources of information, but given 2016 I'd not be surprised to see Merkel gone, Le Pen in and all bets off by the end of 2017. I think then it's a question of when 'events' over come the fear of pulling the plug.
Possibly the key is when Italy actually get to elect their President, they've had a few unelected ones now, so they must be due a say soon.....
paulrockliffe said:
Digga said:
Events last night in Germany cast even more doubt.
Events are one thing, in the context of this thread though it's reactions to events that are significant. The CDU are already spinning that it's just one event and not a result of Merkel's daft policies. Let's look at that in more detail, 12 people died, but that doesn't matter because it's only 12 people. 12 lives are a small price to pay for having Merkel running the show.Do Germans agree with that? Pragmatically politicians all make decisions that ultimately result in people dying sooner than otherwise one way or another. But where there's clear mistake compounded by poor judgement and deliberate policy choices, where there were clear alternatives, that result in otherwise avoidable deaths then those deaths become pretty inexcusable.
I'm no expert on French and German politics and I've found it pretty much impossible to establish the credentials of any foreign sources of information, but given 2016 I'd not be surprised to see Merkel gone, Le Pen in and all bets off by the end of 2017. I think then it's a question of when 'events' over come the fear of pulling the plug.
Possibly the key is when Italy actually get to elect their President, they've had a few unelected ones now, so they must be due a say soon.....
Add into this, as you say, the very significant potential for a wholesale overhaul of the elite within both France and Germany and you have some a very compelling case for change.
paulrockliffe said:
Digga said:
Events last night in Germany cast even more doubt.
Events are one thing, in the context of this thread though it's reactions to events that are significant. The CDU are already spinning that it's just one event and not a result of Merkel's daft policies. Let's look at that in more detail, 12 people died, but that doesn't matter because it's only 12 people. 12 lives are a small price to pay for having Merkel running the show.
Trading halted. Due to run out of money in 4 months (rather than 11 as previously forecast) - http://news.sky.com/story/shares-in-worlds-oldest-...
The debt-for-equity swap is due to close at 2pm Italian time on Wednesday. That's <2 hours from now and while I don't know what it is now the planned ~5B swap only had 200M pledged on Monday!
The debt-for-equity swap is due to close at 2pm Italian time on Wednesday. That's <2 hours from now and while I don't know what it is now the planned ~5B swap only had 200M pledged on Monday!
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff