Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Smart move is simply for he strong EU Nations to leave - so they should have printed own currency all stock piled ready to go and do it over a weekend - with some grace if you hold cash you have x days or weeks to trade it in at the rate of splitting else it will be at market rates.
No debt issue as the debt for the troubled countries is in €.
No debt issue as the debt for the troubled countries is in €.
So if my time line is anything resembling what could happen (very loosely of course), then its most definitely not in the UK national interest for the E.U and euro to fail?
Not in the national interest of any global nation.
Another global economic crisis is not what people need.
So how could the UK promote the continuance of the E.U. and the euro and at the same time have good reason to leave and go it alone?
I think this is one of the biggest challenges the UK and the EU have at the moment.
Not in the national interest of any global nation.
Another global economic crisis is not what people need.
So how could the UK promote the continuance of the E.U. and the euro and at the same time have good reason to leave and go it alone?
I think this is one of the biggest challenges the UK and the EU have at the moment.
Atomic12C said:
So if my time line is anything resembling what could happen (very loosely of course), then its most definitely not in the UK national interest for the E.U and euro to fail?
Not in the national interest of any global nation.
Another global economic crisis is not what people need.
So how could the UK promote the continuance of the E.U. and the euro and at the same time have good reason to leave and go it alone?
I think this is one of the biggest challenges the UK and the EU have at the moment.
The problem is the EU don't deal with problems. Not in the national interest of any global nation.
Another global economic crisis is not what people need.
So how could the UK promote the continuance of the E.U. and the euro and at the same time have good reason to leave and go it alone?
I think this is one of the biggest challenges the UK and the EU have at the moment.
1.The strict deficit rules - 3% max ignored
2. the entry to the EU due diligence is non existent and say Greece joined on lies hence their Drachma was vastly overstated to the € when it joined so it lost its competitive advantage.
3. For some god forsaken reason allowing the IMF to join in to Help Greece - that's no different for the U.K. Saying please help N Ireland or Wales out or Scotland or England as we as one unit don't want the risk.
4. They have some sort of ever closer political union YRT refuse to consolidate surpluses and deficits & debts. So politics may or may not work for all but as say Germans refuse point blank to permantly take on debts of other less fortunate nations is the crux (or any other net contributor or actually any nation with less debt. ) this all stems from allowing countries into the EU without due diligence and ratifying to all members you are now on the hook for this new country and likewise new country is on the hook for any balls up elsewhere. Do EU citizens not realise the consequences ? It's currently devaluing the € so they have a partial impact but when the chickens come home to roost then all taxes go up to fund it or pensions EU wide get less. To fund it.
This is the problem.
If they let Greece go Greece should default on the debt as it is 200 years of pain for them - Walk away be a paraih state who cares your future generations will thank you plus frankly what they need to do anyway is hadsh so the difference isn't huge.
Problem with letting Greece go it means the EU guarantor countries suddenly have crystalized debt on top of their own which they might have been surviving on.
Problem with letting Greece go is the German D Bank will go pop and a few French banks. So massive instant state aid is required which in turn means higher annual interest for those countries to a position that they are in the s
tAtomic12C said:
So if my time line is anything resembling what could happen (very loosely of course), then its most definitely not in the UK national interest for the E.U and euro to fail?
It matters little what is in anyone's interest; you'll find scarce few who made money out of, let alone actually 'wanted' the GFC to occur, but happen it did. The relevant point is that, as the posts above and a great many prior to it show, it simply cannot carry on indefinitely in its present form.Rovinghawk said:
Atomic12C said:
So how could the UK promote the continuance of the E.U. and the euro and at the same time have good reason to leave and go it alone?
The answer at its most simple is that it's their problem not ours. We just have to avoid getting caught too much in any backlash.k you" were not paying escalate a lot and conflict between countries is possible. The oppressors causing mass suffering to a population we stand up for our people. Etc etc.
So they need to balance a tight wire.
Also if they give too much relief to one country then another in a not massively different situation think hey we didn't get any write off plus we have had to pay off a chunk of that countries debt - not fair guess what we're not paying either you can give us relief or we will not pay. Rinse and repeat.
Point is someone is and has to lose out big time - it cannot be Greece as they have nothing to lose, you cannot acquire islands from them for instance so what could you take from them?
maffski said:
Gargamel said:
The EU as a superstate may want EU level agreements, but if we don't get a deal, we could go to WTF rules and then go country by country...possibly.
Under WTO rules you would need a trade deal between the UK and Germany to give them a different tariff on car imports than say France (all WTO members must have the same deal, but you can have extra deals that trump the WTO one), but EU rules forbid a member state making their own deal.Of course you there's nothing to stop us publicly offering things the EU rules currently forbid.
Using WTO regimes you have a set of tariff rates set for products by product type, you have to apply those to everyone using WTO rules as a basis for trade.
If you wish to do a bespoke rate for a country, you have to do that via an agreement outside WTO. That's what having a free trade deal is for.
With the EU, we either sort out a trade deal for the whole block, or we use WTO rates we set for the all countries we don't have a bespoke free trade deal with.
So, for example, if we set a 10% tariff rate on cars, that would apply to Japan, Germany, South Korea and the USA until we arranged a free trade deal or dropped our tariff rate across the board.
Rovinghawk said:
The answer at its most simple is that it's their problem not ours. We just have to avoid getting caught too much in any backlash.
But it is our problem as we'd lose a huge export market - so UK economy is hit hard. So their financial problem is also ours.
My view on it is that for the UK to have prosperous years ahead that we hope will improve our current generations of lives, then we need to find a way of having the UK exit the EU and also promote the continuance of the EU and the euro.
I think a drastic change is needed at the head of the EU. The "ever closer union" is causing the problem as many people are preparing to vote against the loss of their national identity and loss of their sovereign powers.
If for example, a new mission of the EU could be drawn out before Brexit, something along the lines that it will go back to being primarily a trading union rather than a political union, then would that go to solve the impending crisis?
Atomic12C said:
But it is our problem as we'd lose a huge export market - so UK economy is hit hard.
So their financial problem is also ours.
My view on it is that for the UK to have prosperous years ahead that we hope will improve our current generations of lives, then we need to find a way of having the UK exit the EU and also promote the continuance of the EU and the euro.
I think a drastic change is needed at the head of the EU. The "ever closer union" is causing the problem as many people are preparing to vote against the loss of their national identity and loss of their sovereign powers.
If for example, a new mission of the EU could be drawn out before Brexit, something along the lines that it will go back to being primarily a trading union rather than a political union, then would that go to solve the impending crisis?
And that would stop BREXIT in one swoop. So their financial problem is also ours.
My view on it is that for the UK to have prosperous years ahead that we hope will improve our current generations of lives, then we need to find a way of having the UK exit the EU and also promote the continuance of the EU and the euro.
I think a drastic change is needed at the head of the EU. The "ever closer union" is causing the problem as many people are preparing to vote against the loss of their national identity and loss of their sovereign powers.
If for example, a new mission of the EU could be drawn out before Brexit, something along the lines that it will go back to being primarily a trading union rather than a political union, then would that go to solve the impending crisis?
Welshbeef said:
And that would stop BREXIT in one swoop.
Possibly so.But if the EU were a trading partnership and having little political control then I would vote to stay (having voted for brexit under the current conditions and refusal of the EU to reform).
A trading partnership is good in some ways and bad in others - this is accepted.
But for the sake of peace and prosperity in our part of the world I'd hope this would be a target to aim for not only for existing EU members but also for us Brits.
Atomic12C said:
So if my time line is anything resembling what could happen (very loosely of course), then its most definitely not in the UK national interest for the E.U and euro to fail?
Not in the national interest of any global nation.
Another global economic crisis is not what people need.
So how could the UK promote the continuance of the E.U. and the euro and at the same time have good reason to leave and go it alone?
I think this is one of the biggest challenges the UK and the EU have at the moment.
Not in the national interest of any global nation.
Another global economic crisis is not what people need.
So how could the UK promote the continuance of the E.U. and the euro and at the same time have good reason to leave and go it alone?
I think this is one of the biggest challenges the UK and the EU have at the moment.
You're taking an irrelevant POV and asking the wrong questions.
When the damage has been done, which it has, and the s
t has already been flung far and wide by the fan, there's no point trying to switch off the fan let alone try to treat the gastric disorder. All that can be done is get on with the clean up and the longer the delay the longer that will take.
Unfortunately the EU is still in denial.
At the end of last week Federica Mogherini, an Italian Eurocrat, who is Foreign Policy Chief of the EU, met leaders of the Trump administration and 'warned' them not to interfere with politics in Europe. She said that “the strength of the EU and the unity of the EU I believe is more evident today than it was”.
Just who are they trying to convince?
REALIST123 said:
Unfortunately the EU is still in denial.
At the end of last week Federica Mogherini, an Italian Eurocrat, who is Foreign Policy Chief of the EU, met leaders of the Trump administration and 'warned' them not to interfere with politics in Europe. She said that “the strength of the EU and the unity of the EU I believe is more evident today than it was”.
Just who are they trying to convince?
This is as laughable as it is chilling. Utter mania.At the end of last week Federica Mogherini, an Italian Eurocrat, who is Foreign Policy Chief of the EU, met leaders of the Trump administration and 'warned' them not to interfere with politics in Europe. She said that “the strength of the EU and the unity of the EU I believe is more evident today than it was”.
Just who are they trying to convince?
Welshbeef said:
Yipper said:
Greece looking at the dollar.
How would that work?superlightr said:
Welshbeef said:
Yipper said:
Greece looking at the dollar.
How would that work?fblm said:
superlightr said:
Welshbeef said:
Yipper said:
Greece looking at the dollar.
How would that work?fblm said:
Makes no sense. They have got a long term stable currency already, that arguably is part of the reason for the current problem. Moving to another one will only make things look cheaper because it will destroy what's left of their economy and force them to work for 3rd world wages or starve.
Perhaps Trump will allow Greece its own $ printing press?Got to help with the currency wars that Trump accuses Japan/China/Germany/etc.
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