Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Another (practical) sign of the prolonged seppuku (without the honor) of the EUR & EC driven masterplan is the intervention in the LSE / Deutsche Boerse deal. In a classic act of “social liberal” European political thinking (otherwise known as missing the forest for the frikkin trees), the EU Commissioner (Margrethe Vestager uncanny resemblance to Carol from the Walking Dead and possibly scarier), for competition is demanding that the LSE spin off MTS in advance of any deal. Rightly (and possibly emboldened by current economic reality); the LSE is telling the EU to “do-one” (somewhat backed up by the Italian Regulators and German lawmakers). If the merger doesn’t happen, none of the EU exchanges can stand against the US firms (even if in Margrethes’ suede she’s done the right thing by the little guy).
It’s a totally weird situation where political dogma is colouring practical thinking. It’s a further nonsense, that the EC consistently fails to apply its own rule set internally (BRRD and the preventative re-capitalisation of Italian banks). It’s becoming very difficult to trust EU thinking – which has to be damaging (some of) the EUs plan to move FS into mainland Europe (whom will jump into that toilet?).
It’s a totally weird situation where political dogma is colouring practical thinking. It’s a further nonsense, that the EC consistently fails to apply its own rule set internally (BRRD and the preventative re-capitalisation of Italian banks). It’s becoming very difficult to trust EU thinking – which has to be damaging (some of) the EUs plan to move FS into mainland Europe (whom will jump into that toilet?).
I thought the same. The deal would be good for Europe post Brexit surely as a means of accessing the rest of the world more seamlessly via LSE? Control however seems more important to the commission even after they have ceded any practically useful control they may have had in many other areas i.e. the Target2 discussion a case where its only going to go one way until such point as something drastic happens.
stongle said:
It’s a totally weird situation where political dogma is colouring practical thinking. It’s a further nonsense, that the EC consistently fails to apply its own rule set internally (BRRD and the preventative re-capitalisation of Italian banks). It’s becoming very difficult to trust EU thinking – which has to be damaging (some of) the EUs plan to move FS into mainland Europe (whom will jump into that toilet?).
My abiding reasons for voting out. Europeans individually and even collectively as nations, are not nearly as clueless and impractical as the unelected, dogmatic idiots who believe themselves to be Europe, but are actually merely custodians of a failing organisation.Digga said:
y abiding reasons for voting out. Europeans individually and even collectively as nations, are not nearly as clueless and impractical as the unelected, dogmatic idiots who believe themselves to be Europe, but are actually merely custodians of a failing organisation.
If I could take back my remain vote now, I definitely would! TBH, I must’ve taken leave of my senses in June (although having an Irish-born and passport holding wife voting “out” does suggest do the opposite). I think you firmly crack the nut on the head. I had hoped that perhaps, maybe common sense would prevail – but it’s going down faster than a lady of horizontal refreshment in a ho house. Common Travel Area mate. I also have a very large Irish family, that part of the argument was never really an issue for me. I can fully understand however those with spouse from the EU who are left hanging at the moment whilst the government fails to do the decent thing by people that have made their lives here. Even Farage was calling for this guarantee right after the referendum result so it is frankly a bit shambolic and nasty of our government to play this game + of course the daft race to the bottom threats. Its like going to buy a secondhand Porsche and starting your negotiation with a threat to walk down the road to the Hyundai garage if you don't get the right price.
NJH said:
Common Travel Area mate. I also have a very large Irish family, that part of the argument was never really an issue for me. I can fully understand however those with spouse from the EU who are left hanging at the moment whilst the government fails to do the decent thing by people that have made their lives here. Even Farage was calling for this guarantee right after the referendum result so it is frankly a bit shambolic and nasty of our government to play this game + of course the daft race to the bottom threats. Its like going to buy a secondhand Porsche and starting your negotiation with a threat to walk down the road to the Hyundai garage if you don't get the right price.
You do know it's not our (nasty) government pulling this trick. May wanted this sorted ages ago, it's the EU that have said nothing will be discussed. So if you want to direct your anger/frustration somewhere then you need to look over the water I'm afraid. London424 said:
NJH said:
Common Travel Area mate. I also have a very large Irish family, that part of the argument was never really an issue for me. I can fully understand however those with spouse from the EU who are left hanging at the moment whilst the government fails to do the decent thing by people that have made their lives here. Even Farage was calling for this guarantee right after the referendum result so it is frankly a bit shambolic and nasty of our government to play this game + of course the daft race to the bottom threats. Its like going to buy a secondhand Porsche and starting your negotiation with a threat to walk down the road to the Hyundai garage if you don't get the right price.
You do know it's not our (nasty) government pulling this trick. May wanted this sorted ages ago, it's the EU that have said nothing will be discussed. So if you want to direct your anger/frustration somewhere then you need to look over the water I'm afraid. stongle said:
It’s a totally weird situation where political dogma is colouring practical thinking. It’s a further nonsense, that the EC consistently fails to apply its own rule set internally (BRRD and the preventative re-capitalisation of Italian banks). It’s becoming very difficult to trust EU thinking – which has to be damaging (some of) the EUs plan to move FS into mainland Europe (whom will jump into that toilet?).
There are not many financial institutions thinking "Thank f
k for that, I really wanted to move to Paris". However, all of them have had major articles written about them by the Guardian. 
davepoth said:
There are not many financial institutions thinking "Thank fk for that, I really wanted to move to Paris". However, all of them have had major articles written about them by the Guardian.
They write articles about everything moving, each day another one appears and their online audience lap the supposition up like it's solid gold.k for that, I really wanted to move to Paris". However, all of them have had major articles written about them by the Guardian. stongle said:
Digga said:
y abiding reasons for voting out. Europeans individually and even collectively as nations, are not nearly as clueless and impractical as the unelected, dogmatic idiots who believe themselves to be Europe, but are actually merely custodians of a failing organisation.
If I could take back my remain vote now, I definitely would! TBH, I must’ve taken leave of my senses in June (although having an Irish-born and passport holding wife voting “out” does suggest do the opposite). <snip>Of course that might be down to the media wanting to spin the story they way they want it to be and it was stated earlier that there are plenty of threads to brexit with so I'll try to steer back to the thread title
Digga nailed it - I have no issues with Europeans but the EU (and the Euro) is continuing to fail and cannot suceed long term in it's current modus operandi - change is required and I can't see the "leadership" effecting any other change than trying to keep their noses in the trough for as long as possible
I had a meeting with a chap we do business with yesterday. He's a Brit but speaks fluent German and his partner lives in Hamburg where they have a place - he lives and works here and goes over to visit her regularly and has done for several years. He says - and there could be confirmation bias here, or people being polite - that all of the Germans he's talked to on the subject of Brexit believe we've done the right thing and are themselves worried about what further involvement in the Euro and Europe might do to Germany.
As I say, it's annecdotal and unscientific, but then so are a lot of these opinion polls.
As I say, it's annecdotal and unscientific, but then so are a lot of these opinion polls.
Any self thinking person in Germany should be worried about the Euro. Ditto all the net contributors.
It's served them well to date, but it takes no levels of genius to see the problems it has, and that nothing is being done to properly resolve them (quite the opposite).
No one is prepared to grasp the problems of imbalance between member states because of the political project. It will be its undoing eventually. It's simply going to be a question of how much it will hurt, and whom.
It's served them well to date, but it takes no levels of genius to see the problems it has, and that nothing is being done to properly resolve them (quite the opposite).
No one is prepared to grasp the problems of imbalance between member states because of the political project. It will be its undoing eventually. It's simply going to be a question of how much it will hurt, and whom.
Digga said:
that all of the Germans he's talked to on the subject of Brexit believe we've done the right thing and are themselves worried about what further involvement in the Euro and Europe might do to Germany.
As I say, it's annecdotal and unscientific, but then so are a lot of these opinion polls.
Crikey - that is a bit of a shift from the messages I was getting from Germany on the morning of the result. To paraphrase, they all said "What the fAs I say, it's annecdotal and unscientific, but then so are a lot of these opinion polls.
k have you lot done??!?"The point you raise about the opinion polls is a good one. There is a growing disconnect between what people say they are going to do in public (ie to a pollster) and what they do in private (in the poll booth). I am wondering if it is driven by concern about vilification for holding "unpopular" or "unsavoury" views.
GlenMH said:
Crikey - that is a bit of a shift from the messages I was getting from Germany on the morning of the result. To paraphrase, they all said "What the fk have you lot done??!?"
I guess, turning the tables and trying to be sympathetic, if I were German - and irrespective of my POV about the EU or the Euro - I think it was perhaps something that would cause shock, at the very least. For the rest of Europe, I guess the referendum was going on largely beneath the radar until the 'unexpected' result.k have you lot done??!?"GlenMH said:
Crikey - that is a bit of a shift from the messages I was getting from Germany on the morning of the result. To paraphrase, they all said "What the fk have you lot done??!?"
The point you raise about the opinion polls is a good one. There is a growing disconnect between what people say they are going to do in public (ie to a pollster) and what they do in private (in the poll booth). I am wondering if it is driven by concern about vilification for holding "unpopular" or "unsavoury" views.
I definitely think that's part of it. k have you lot done??!?"The point you raise about the opinion polls is a good one. There is a growing disconnect between what people say they are going to do in public (ie to a pollster) and what they do in private (in the poll booth). I am wondering if it is driven by concern about vilification for holding "unpopular" or "unsavoury" views.
It will be interesting to see how vocal people get now they know they are not in the minority...
(I also wonder how much of the original comments you received were down to “bugger, we'll be picking up even more now! “...)
Murph7355 said:
Any self thinking person in Germany should be worried about the Euro. Ditto all the net contributors.
If they think today's situation is costing them imagine what it would be like under full federalism. All that money they gain in exports will go straight out again to the weaker states in the union.Its a hard thing to say it after the past year but people will look back on this period in 50 years time and think those who have gone along with this mess the past decade were insane, they will find it as difficult to understand as why everyone was dragged into WW1.
NJH said:
Murph7355 said:
Any self thinking person in Germany should be worried about the Euro. Ditto all the net contributors.
If they think today's situation is costing them imagine what it would be like under full federalism. All that money they gain in exports will go straight out again to the weaker states in the union.Its a hard thing to say it after the past year but people will look back on this period in 50 years time and think those who have gone along with this mess the past decade were insane, they will find it as difficult to understand as why everyone was dragged into WW1.
And without a full federal EU they've not been able to control it.
Agree on how history will see this experiment. Much more water to go under the bridge yet though.
Murph7355 said:
That money's already gone to the Southern States. They just haven't admitted it yet.
And without a full federal EU they've not been able to control it.
Agree on how history will see this experiment. Much more water to go under the bridge yet though.
Indeed Germany effectively has a loan book of circa 800bn Euro's. Money it is unlikely to be able to collect. Oddly at some point it would be in Germanys interest to socialize all Euro zone debt and schedule a repayment plan from individual states whilst using its own credit rating to effectively stand behind the loans. that would prevent nation state failure in the south and a run on the banks in the north. And without a full federal EU they've not been able to control it.
Agree on how history will see this experiment. Much more water to go under the bridge yet though.
GlenMH said:
There is a growing disconnect between what people say they are going to do in public (ie to a pollster) and what they do in private (in the poll booth).
I don't think the disconnect is growing particularly. The 'shy tory' effect has been well known for a long time and the difference between unadjusted polls and election results has fallen since the immediate post Thatcher years. A good friend did a lot of work on this and called both Brexit and Trump. His theory is that the effect is mostly a function of how 'toxic' one side is portrayed as; who wants to be a racist little englander or a dumb hateful redneck? The poll shocks might be increasing but that's because the 'toxicity level' is. France will be very interesting!fblm said:
GlenMH said:
There is a growing disconnect between what people say they are going to do in public (ie to a pollster) and what they do in private (in the poll booth).
I don't think the disconnect is growing particularly. The 'shy tory' effect has been well known for a long time and the difference between unadjusted polls and election results has fallen since the immediate post Thatcher years. A good friend did a lot of work on this and called both Brexit and Trump. His theory is that the effect is mostly a function of how 'toxic' one side is portrayed as; who wants to be a racist little englander or a dumb hateful redneck? The poll shocks might be increasing but that's because the 'toxicity level' is. France will be very interesting!Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff