Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[paulrockliffe]

And seeing what's happened post Trump it wouldn't be a huge surprise that even more Le Pen voters are now keeping their heads down than before, making the polls wrong again even after 'adjustments' have been factored in. But who knows.

[Seek]

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/02/europe/marine-le...

[gruffalo]

Seek said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/02/europe/marine-le...

I saw thyat and my first thought was "It looks like the EU is protecting their own again" They did it earlier in th eweek with I think the chap expected to stand against Merkel being investigated.

The timings of both of these announcements seems rather convenient.

[Atomic12C]

Gargamel said:

Indeed Germany effectively has a loan book of circa 800bn Euro's. Money it is unlikely to be able to collect. Oddly at some point it would be in Germanys interest to socialize all Euro zone debt and schedule a repayment plan from individual states whilst using its own credit rating to effectively stand behind the loans. that would prevent nation state failure in the south and a run on the banks in the north.

Isn't the end goal to be a United States of Europe?
Whereby this loan book will be a U.SofE. loan to itself in effect?
Similar to the debt.... whereby this will 'sort of' be 'cleverly' written off as loans vs debts to and from the same entity?

Once this trickery has neutralised the debts vs loans of former nations, the new entity which will be the U.SofE will then just 'suffer' the inequalities of the productive north funding the benefits of the 'lazy' south.

('lazy' is obviously not the correct wording, struggling to find the correct analogy - its application is more towards the rate of economies rather that attitudes of the people/workforce)

[anonymous-user]

Atomic12C said:

Gargamel said:

Indeed Germany effectively has a loan book of circa 800bn Euro's. Money it is unlikely to be able to collect. Oddly at some point it would be in Germanys interest to socialize all Euro zone debt and schedule a repayment plan from individual states whilst using its own credit rating to effectively stand behind the loans. that would prevent nation state failure in the south and a run on the banks in the north.

Isn't the end goal to be a United States of Europe?
Whereby this loan book will be a U.SofE. loan to itself in effect?
Similar to the debt.... whereby this will 'sort of' be 'cleverly' written off as loans vs debts to and from the same entity?

Once this trickery has neutralised the debts vs loans of former nations, the new entity which will be the U.SofE will then just 'suffer' the inequalities of the productive north funding the benefits of the 'lazy' south.

('lazy' is obviously not the correct wording, struggling to find the correct analogy - its application is more towards the rate of economies rather that attitudes of the people/workforce)

Old but worth a read.
http://www.economist.com/node/21524887

[Murph7355]

gruffalo said:

Seek said:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/02/europe/marine-le...

I saw thyat and my first thought was "It looks like the EU is protecting their own again" They did it earlier in th eweek with I think the chap expected to stand against Merkel being investigated.

The timings of both of these announcements seems rather convenient.

This will backfire massively on the EU IMO.

Those against MlP will nod sagely saying hear hear.

Those who are for her will start shouting much more loudly.

The undecided though. And the quiet MlPers. This could all too readily tip them the "wrong" way (from an EU perspective).

Project Peur commences (Bacofoil to the ready)

[Borghetto]

gruffalo said:

I saw thyat and my first thought was "It looks like the EU is protecting their own again" They did it earlier in th eweek with I think the chap expected to stand against Merkel being investigated.

The timings of both of these announcements seems rather convenient.

I find it hard to understand the stupidity of the EU and Le Pen's opponents. How do they think these prosecutions will play to her supporters and undecided voters. They will make a martyr of her and increase her electability.

[Digga]

Borghetto said:

I find it hard to understand the stupidity of the EU and Le Pen's opponents. How do they think these prosecutions will play to her supporters and undecided voters. They will make a martyr of her and increase her electability.

If they neutralise her - remove her from the vote by consequence of their actions - then the mood could turn extremely ugly. This being the land of very direct action from any disgruntled sections of the public.

[LongQ]

I thought it was compulsory for any serious French politician with leadership leanings to have at least one good investigation and preferably a prosecution on their cv.

Have I misunderstood?

[Phud]

LongQ said:

I thought it was compulsory for any serious French politician with leadership leanings to have at least one good investigation and preferably a prosecution on their cv.

Have I misunderstood?

and affairs and mistresses, however not sure what MLP will have in her cupboard!!

[Perik Omo]

I see thet the Target 2 imbalances are acclerating, net claims for Germany now stands at 814.4 billion euros at the end of February and Italy's net debt has risen to 386.1 billion euros up from 797 billion euros and 356 billion euros respectively. Won't be long before Germany's claims exceed 1 trillion euros and that's a very scary number for the euro zone.

[LongQ]

Perik Omo said:

I see thet the Target 2 imbalances are acclerating, net claims for Germany now stands at 814.4 billion euros at the end of February and Italy's net debt has risen to 386.1 billion euros up from 797 billion euros and 356 billion euros respectively. Won't be long before Germany's claims exceed 1 trillion euros and that's a very scary number for the euro zone.

So how long before Germany actually owns, to all intents and purposes, the whole of Europe officially and practically?

[Welshbeef]

Perik Omo said:

I see thet the Target 2 imbalances are acclerating, net claims for Germany now stands at 814.4 billion euros at the end of February and Italy's net debt has risen to 386.1 billion euros up from 797 billion euros and 356 billion euros respectively. Won't be long before Germany's claims exceed 1 trillion euros and that's a very scary number for the euro zone.

The issue is it will never be paid off.


Germany for some reason had a hugely generous WW2 settlement - yet the voctors spent the next 70years paying back he debt and having to wait until they had£ or were able to borrow more to invest in the future.

Maybe this will be Germanys watershed / payback time? Greece have already stated that Germany have still to pay back what is owed to them I can see that gathering monentun.

[Gandahar]

After all these pages the answer is still NO.

NO

How many years and posts by PH people wanting it to be true to be shown that it is wishful thinking? Lots.

I'm thinking of paying those infinite amount of monkeys who are writing the next Shakespear version of 50 Shades of Grey a substantial amount of bananas to come on here and actually say

"No"

And the next 1000000000 pages it continues, to say

"No"

It's not a tricky question after all.

The answer is

"No".

Not in your lifetime.

I know you want it to be YES. But the answer is NO

So go suck on it

PS You might want to start worrying about the £

Edited by Gandahar on Tuesday 7th March 22:50

[wc98]

Atomic12C said:

Isn't the end goal to be a United States of Europe?
Whereby this loan book will be a U.SofE. loan to itself in effect?
Similar to the debt.... whereby this will 'sort of' be 'cleverly' written off as loans vs debts to and from the same entity?

Once this trickery has neutralised the debts vs loans of former nations, the new entity which will be the U.SofE will then just 'suffer' the inequalities of the productive north funding the benefits of the 'lazy' south.

('lazy' is obviously not the correct wording, struggling to find the correct analogy - its application is more towards the rate of economies rather that attitudes of the people/workforce)

lazy isn't the right word. they just have different priorities in life. working themselves into the ground for material possessions only seems to be the preserve of the countries with crap weather and long winters , in europe anyway.

i am pretty sure if we had mediterranean weather in the uk we would all work a fair few hours less as well

[anonymous-user]

Gandahar said:

After all these pages the answer is still NO.

NO

How many years and posts by PH people wanting it to be true to be shown that it is wishful thinking? Lots.

I'm thinking of paying those infinite amount of monkeys who are writing the next Shakespear version of 50 Shades of Grey a substantial amount of bananas to come on here and actually say

"No"

And the next 1000000000 pages it continues, to say

"No"

It's not a tricky question after all.

The answer is

"No".

Not in your lifetime.

I know you want it to be YES. But the answer is NO

So go suck on it

PS You might want to start worrying about the £

Edited by Gandahar on Tuesday 7th March 22:50

I don't think its a case of people wanting it to happen.

Its more a case of people wishing the effects of the Euro were not so damaging for Europe.

It's not exactly working out well for most Euro countries right now.

[Welshbeef]

Gandahar said:

After all these pages the answer is still NO.

NO

How many years and posts by PH people wanting it to be true to be shown that it is wishful thinking? Lots.

I'm thinking of paying those infinite amount of monkeys who are writing the next Shakespear version of 50 Shades of Grey a substantial amount of bananas to come on here and actually say

"No"

And the next 1000000000 pages it continues, to say

"No"

It's not a tricky question after all.

The answer is

"No".

Not in your lifetime.

I know you want it to be YES. But the answer is NO

So go suck on it

PS You might want to start worrying about the £

Edited by Gandahar on Tuesday 7th March 22:50

As the € currently works there is a gaping disconnect between those who have and those that don't. This gap is increasing all the time which is not good.
The EU have shown how inept it is eg agreece entry due diligence and it's monitoring of escalating debt to GDP/also deficit to GDP.
The EU rules on deficit max at 3% is a farce no one sticks to it and no one is fined.
The EU has not been able to tackle immigration
The EU were so shockingly bad at trying to resolve Ukraine Putin after a few years had to step in and now we are dealing with a different beast.
The EU pushed derv sales hard - which turns out to be because it benefitted Germany instead it's causing tens of thousands of deaths a year. We are also now behind the rest of the world at adopting ultra efficient petrol and PHaeV and EVs.


If we have a school report on the EU it doesn't read very well.

However it's easy to fix /unpalatable. The EU needs fiscal consolidation so that means netting off deficits against surpluses. Hard to swallow for say a German who has to retire at 70yo yet in Greece is 55yo ish along with so many other issues.

The EU worked when it had Germany France UK that made sense 3 equal economies similar living standards and similarvlife goals. Drag in countries where average salary isn't even 1/10th of the average in the above 3 you have a big issue. They all want to move to you to get the better salary (and why not) at the expense of brain drain in their country of origin. The SU has done nothing about increasing productivity skills and average salary per country.
The sole thing I'd say about the € is when it came in I noticed a marked increase in the cost of a beer on holiday. It used to be £0.20-0.50 suddenly €2.50.... did all the locals suddenly have vast pay rises? Nope also in Spain and Greece I noticed a quick change from countless old clapped out cars running about to suddenly everyone has new cars or try spotting the clapped out one. Again how? Did they have big pay rises? Nope instead they thought look at Germany we want some of that we deserve it etc.

[anonymous-user]

Welshbeef said:

...
The EU rules on deficit max at 3% is a farce no one sticks to it and no one is fined.
...

The Stability and Growth Pact (3 and 60 rule) was kicked into touch a long time ago (2004?); by ze Germans of all people. Doh.

[Tuna]

Gandahar said:

After all these pages the answer is still NO.

NO
....

Calm down.

It is of course unthinkable, and the political and social fall out would be huge.

But I seem to remember the "End of Boom and Bust" prior to 2008 where the world economies were seen to be unshakeable.

It's not that I personally wish it to happen, but watching the turmoil in Europe, the pressures on PIGS and political changes makes you wonder what shape the continent will be in in five, ten years time. I've not met anyone who would deny the Euro in its current form has been disastrous for the southern nations, so what happens next? If the Euro itself survives, how do those countries rebuild their economies? Continuous bail-outs and massive unemployment cannot be regarded as sustainable can they?

The moment economists start saying "This could not possibly happen", I get a little nervous

[Atomic12C]

wc98 said:

Atomic12C said:

Isn't the end goal to be a United States of Europe?
Whereby this loan book will be a U.SofE. loan to itself in effect?
Similar to the debt.... whereby this will 'sort of' be 'cleverly' written off as loans vs debts to and from the same entity?

Once this trickery has neutralised the debts vs loans of former nations, the new entity which will be the U.SofE will then just 'suffer' the inequalities of the productive north funding the benefits of the 'lazy' south.

('lazy' is obviously not the correct wording, struggling to find the correct analogy - its application is more towards the rate of economies rather that attitudes of the people/workforce)

lazy isn't the right word. they just have different priorities in life. working themselves into the ground for material possessions only seems to be the preserve of the countries with crap weather and long winters , in europe anyway.

i am pretty sure if we had mediterranean weather in the uk we would all work a fair few hours less as well

I suppose that is true on a personal level; but the end result in the cut-throat world of business, if you snooze, you lose.

In terms of economic growth and the ability of a government to spend on public services and maintenance/development of infrastructures etc., I think those 'lazy' economies may suffer in years to come. Whereas those economies that enjoy growth can drive themselves in to the future.

Until of course they have the likes of Germany paying for them, in the form of a United States of Europe
(Something that more and more Germans are becoming concerned about).


(again, my use of 'lazy' may sound harsh - not my intention; please insert a more suitable term to suit. I was going to use 'slower' but even that is wrong and could be deemed derogatory)