Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[NJH]

Fundamentally resolving the Euro problem is at the heart of saving the EU in whatever form it takes in the future. It worries me that so many don't see a threat in all the commotion popping up all over Europe. Is the rise of far right groups and the Italian clown due to 1/2 the continent being racists or is it because people are fed up, can see this isn't working but don't have anywhere else to turn? Personally I have enough faith in humanity to firmly believe its the later. Do nothing and continue to kick the can down the road could end up imploding the entire EU project.

[chemistry]

An interesting piece in this week's Economist about the future of the Euro, especially the mechanics of a country leaving:

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21719...

Edited by chemistry on Monday 27th March 12:25

[Murph7355]

chemistry said:

An interesting piece in this week's Economist about the future of the Euro, especially the mechanics of a country leaving:

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21719...
...

It's al about the politics and bugger all to do with what makes economic sense for each member state or what is good for the people of Europe.

As noted in the article it's the fear of contagion and the break up of the project and Germany ending up holding a lot of crystallised debt that it will need to explain to its electorate that are stopping major change.

Politicians need to get their heads out of their arses and start owning up to mistakes/errors in direction rather than perpetuating them.

[hornetrider]

Fascinating article here on Yanis Varoufakis' memoirs and his account of the Greek financial crisis and bailout. Some real insight into the political workings and machinations even in the review, the book should be a cracking read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yani...

[hornetrider]

He's on 5live now. Fascinating!

[NJH]

hornetrider said:

Fascinating article here on Yanis Varoufakis' memoirs and his account of the Greek financial crisis and bailout. Some real insight into the political workings and machinations even in the review, the book should be a cracking read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yani...

Thanks for the link, I have ordered the book and look forward to reading it. He was talking about the book and his experience the other night on the TV, he is a perplexing character in many ways, his own experience of the EU and his description of them as irrational and thus impossible to negotiate with would lead one to believe he must be pro Brexit. However at the time he was asking for people to vote Remain to fight from the inside to reform the EU and has claimed that we couldn't get a good deal (because there irrational). I guess one could describe this as a modern non-idealogical approach to politics i.e. rather than doing what you believe is right and then trying to make it work, take a risk analysis and do things you don't believe in or believe are right. I don't see much evidence of that philosophy leading to long term success frankly.

[tumble dryer]

NJH said:

hornetrider said:

Fascinating article here on Yanis Varoufakis' memoirs and his account of the Greek financial crisis and bailout. Some real insight into the political workings and machinations even in the review, the book should be a cracking read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yani...

Thanks for the link, I have ordered the book and look forward to reading it. He was talking about the book and his experience the other night on the TV, he is a perplexing character in many ways, his own experience of the EU and his description of them as irrational and thus impossible to negotiate with would lead one to believe he must be pro Brexit. However at the time he was asking for people to vote Remain to fight from the inside to reform the EU and has claimed that we couldn't get a good deal (because there irrational). I guess one could describe this as a modern non-idealogical approach to politics i.e. rather than doing what you believe is right and then trying to make it work, take a risk analysis and do things you don't believe in or believe are right. I don't see much evidence of that philosophy leading to long term success frankly.

He's my idea of a thinking politician, and full of charisma.

I wondered why he so suddenly exited Stage Left; I'm now beginning to understand.

[LongQ]

tumble dryer said:

NJH said:

hornetrider said:

Fascinating article here on Yanis Varoufakis' memoirs and his account of the Greek financial crisis and bailout. Some real insight into the political workings and machinations even in the review, the book should be a cracking read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yani...

Thanks for the link, I have ordered the book and look forward to reading it. He was talking about the book and his experience the other night on the TV, he is a perplexing character in many ways, his own experience of the EU and his description of them as irrational and thus impossible to negotiate with would lead one to believe he must be pro Brexit. However at the time he was asking for people to vote Remain to fight from the inside to reform the EU and has claimed that we couldn't get a good deal (because there irrational). I guess one could describe this as a modern non-idealogical approach to politics i.e. rather than doing what you believe is right and then trying to make it work, take a risk analysis and do things you don't believe in or believe are right. I don't see much evidence of that philosophy leading to long term success frankly.

He's my idea of a thinking politician, and full of charisma.

I wondered why he so suddenly exited Stage Left; I'm now beginning to understand.

I don't think he is a Politician. He may have known some of the "rules" before he signed up and may know a few more now. But I don't see him as a politician in the usual sense of the word.

[tumble dryer]

LongQ said:

tumble dryer said:

NJH said:

hornetrider said:

Fascinating article here on Yanis Varoufakis' memoirs and his account of the Greek financial crisis and bailout. Some real insight into the political workings and machinations even in the review, the book should be a cracking read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yani...

Thanks for the link, I have ordered the book and look forward to reading it. He was talking about the book and his experience the other night on the TV, he is a perplexing character in many ways, his own experience of the EU and his description of them as irrational and thus impossible to negotiate with would lead one to believe he must be pro Brexit. However at the time he was asking for people to vote Remain to fight from the inside to reform the EU and has claimed that we couldn't get a good deal (because there irrational). I guess one could describe this as a modern non-idealogical approach to politics i.e. rather than doing what you believe is right and then trying to make it work, take a risk analysis and do things you don't believe in or believe are right. I don't see much evidence of that philosophy leading to long term success frankly.

He's my idea of a thinking politician, and full of charisma.

I wondered why he so suddenly exited Stage Left; I'm now beginning to understand.

I don't think he is a Politician. He may have known some of the "rules" before he signed up and may know a few more now. But I don't see him as a politician in the usual sense of the word.

Fair point. And on thinking about it, I agree.

Doesn't stop me liking / admiring him tho'.

[anonymous-user]

LongQ said:

tumble dryer said:

NJH said:

hornetrider said:

Fascinating article here on Yanis Varoufakis' memoirs and his account of the Greek financial crisis and bailout. Some real insight into the political workings and machinations even in the review, the book should be a cracking read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yani...

Thanks for the link, I have ordered the book and look forward to reading it. He was talking about the book and his experience the other night on the TV, he is a perplexing character in many ways, his own experience of the EU and his description of them as irrational and thus impossible to negotiate with would lead one to believe he must be pro Brexit. However at the time he was asking for people to vote Remain to fight from the inside to reform the EU and has claimed that we couldn't get a good deal (because there irrational). I guess one could describe this as a modern non-idealogical approach to politics i.e. rather than doing what you believe is right and then trying to make it work, take a risk analysis and do things you don't believe in or believe are right. I don't see much evidence of that philosophy leading to long term success frankly.

He's my idea of a thinking politician, and full of charisma.

I wondered why he so suddenly exited Stage Left; I'm now beginning to understand.

I don't think he is a Politician. He may have known some of the "rules" before he signed up and may know a few more now. But I don't see him as a politician in the usual sense of the word.

Mark Blyth is far easier to listen to, you should watch some of his lectures. This one is on the future of the Euro. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S31VLG8Qi78

[LongQ]

jsf said:

LongQ said:

tumble dryer said:

NJH said:

hornetrider said:

Fascinating article here on Yanis Varoufakis' memoirs and his account of the Greek financial crisis and bailout. Some real insight into the political workings and machinations even in the review, the book should be a cracking read.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yani...

Thanks for the link, I have ordered the book and look forward to reading it. He was talking about the book and his experience the other night on the TV, he is a perplexing character in many ways, his own experience of the EU and his description of them as irrational and thus impossible to negotiate with would lead one to believe he must be pro Brexit. However at the time he was asking for people to vote Remain to fight from the inside to reform the EU and has claimed that we couldn't get a good deal (because there irrational). I guess one could describe this as a modern non-idealogical approach to politics i.e. rather than doing what you believe is right and then trying to make it work, take a risk analysis and do things you don't believe in or believe are right. I don't see much evidence of that philosophy leading to long term success frankly.

He's my idea of a thinking politician, and full of charisma.

I wondered why he so suddenly exited Stage Left; I'm now beginning to understand.

I don't think he is a Politician. He may have known some of the "rules" before he signed up and may know a few more now. But I don't see him as a politician in the usual sense of the word.

Mark Blyth is far easier to listen to, you should watch some of his lectures. This one is on the future of the Euro. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S31VLG8Qi78

I've watched a number of Mark Blyth videos, including the one where is interviews Yanis Varoufakis.

In many ways, whether or not one agrees with their political leanings, they offer sensible observations.

However they both seem to have some peripheral subject areas where the sensible observations and natural questioning seem to go AWOL.

No surprise - it seem to be something that affects all smart people in one form or another - and less smart people in many forms, probably.

[YankeePorker]

One Trader Asks: "Is Time To Stop Worrying About The Euro?"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-04/one-trade...

Don't agree with the trader as I still haven't heard EU commission proposals that will correct the structural imbalances of the €zone countries while they are all fighting inside the same currency straitjacket. However, for him it's all about the "narrative".....

[NJH]

LongQ said:

I've watched a number of Mark Blyth videos, including the one where is interviews Yanis Varoufakis.

In many ways, whether or not one agrees with their political leanings, they offer sensible observations.

However they both seem to have some peripheral subject areas where the sensible observations and natural questioning seem to go AWOL.

No surprise - it seem to be something that affects all smart people in one form or another - and less smart people in many forms, probably.

One could be generous to such folks and say its just a characteristic of being a free thinker, of being ones own man.

Perhaps we should be asking the question of those who freely subject themselves to increasingly irrelevant and debased political tribes why they can't think for themselves, or why they don't have enough back bone to stand up for what they believe in rather than prostituting themselves to political tribes.

[AstonZagato]

Gandahar said:

After all these pages the answer is still NO.

NO

How many years and posts by PH people wanting it to be true to be shown that it is wishful thinking? Lots.

I'm thinking of paying those infinite amount of monkeys who are writing the next Shakespear version of 50 Shades of Grey a substantial amount of bananas to come on here and actually say

"No"

And the next 1000000000 pages it continues, to say

"No"

It's not a tricky question after all.

The answer is

"No".

Not in your lifetime.

I know you want it to be YES. But the answer is NO

So go suck on it

PS You might want to start worrying about the £

The Euro will only survive long term if the EU becomes a Untied States of Europe. It has managed to get a long, long way down that path and continues to head in that direction. It needs fiscal union. That requires political union. The crisis has convinced the elites that these are needed. They just haven't worked out a way of either selling that to the electorate. So they continue on with their plan of edging ever closer until it has happened without the electorate ever noticing enough to complain. They are most of the way there now. It may, with Macron a shoe-in, have just passed the point of no-return.

[LongQ]

NJH said:

LongQ said:

I've watched a number of Mark Blyth videos, including the one where is interviews Yanis Varoufakis.

In many ways, whether or not one agrees with their political leanings, they offer sensible observations.

However they both seem to have some peripheral subject areas where the sensible observations and natural questioning seem to go AWOL.

No surprise - it seem to be something that affects all smart people in one form or another - and less smart people in many forms, probably.

One could be generous to such folks and say its just a characteristic of being a free thinker, of being ones own man.

Perhaps we should be asking the question of those who freely subject themselves to increasingly irrelevant and debased political tribes why they can't think for themselves, or why they don't have enough back bone to stand up for what they believe in rather than prostituting themselves to political tribes.

Humans, along with most creatures, are tribal by nature.

Nearly everyone has a yearning to belong somewhere and we just join up to the most comfortable (usually) "place" or tribe that we have found so far.

"Place" does not have to be physical. It can be philosophical, political, etc. Anything that provides a grouping connection of some sort.

PH for example.

Other than the most remote outliers most humans, no matter how much they appear to be free thinkers, seem to like to have at least one connection point to the rest of humanity where they don't feel a need to think to much about it. A sort of bonding thing.

[Huntsman]

Italy continues to be cause for concern.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40400210

[Gargamel]

Huntsman said:

Italy continues to be cause for concern.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40400210

Talk about dwonplaying it !

So the deal writes off 12bn in Bad loans, from two small regional banks in Veneto, helpfully avoids EU rules on state aid and of course takes over the assests. Great news for consumers.

Then you get to this bit

Bailout fund
Sunday's rescue is the latest twist in the drive to fix the Italian banking system, which is saddled with bad loans worth about 350bn euros - a third of the eurozone's total bad debt

Hmm - so 12bn Euro's of bad debt written off. Just another 338bn to go !

[Blib]

Excellent timing for the Brexit negotiations.

[Tryke3]

Welshbeef said:

As the € currently works there is a gaping disconnect between those who have and those that don't. This gap is increasing all the time which is not good.
The EU have shown how inept it is eg agreece entry due diligence and it's monitoring of escalating debt to GDP/also deficit to GDP.
The EU rules on deficit max at 3% is a farce no one sticks to it and no one is fined.
The EU has not been able to tackle immigration
The EU were so shockingly bad at trying to resolve Ukraine Putin after a few years had to step in and now we are dealing with a different beast.
The EU pushed derv sales hard - which turns out to be because it benefitted Germany instead it's causing tens of thousands of deaths a year. We are also now behind the rest of the world at adopting ultra efficient petrol and PHaeV and EVs.


If we have a school report on the EU it doesn't read very well.

However it's easy to fix /unpalatable. The EU needs fiscal consolidation so that means netting off deficits against surpluses. Hard to swallow for say a German who has to retire at 70yo yet in Greece is 55yo ish along with so many other issues.

The EU worked when it had Germany France UK that made sense 3 equal economies similar living standards and similarvlife goals. Drag in countries where average salary isn't even 1/10th of the average in the above 3 you have a big issue. They all want to move to you to get the better salary (and why not) at the expense of brain drain in their country of origin. The SU has done nothing about increasing productivity skills and average salary per country.
The sole thing I'd say about the € is when it came in I noticed a marked increase in the cost of a beer on holiday. It used to be £0.20-0.50 suddenly €2.50.... did all the locals suddenly have vast pay rises? Nope also in Spain and Greece I noticed a quick change from countless old clapped out cars running about to suddenly everyone has new cars or try spotting the clapped out one. Again how? Did they have big pay rises? Nope instead they thought look at Germany we want some of that we deserve it etc.

What you are claiming is just st you read in the daily mail

[Murph7355]

Tryke3 said:

What you are claiming is just st you read in the daily mail

A bit harsh.

At least half of it is pretty much OK. The rest is at worst conjecture, some of it that might stand a debate if you wanted to rather than just dismissing it all