War with Russia
Discussion
hidetheelephants said:
Seems to be plenty about it on the BBC; it's a bit partial in presentation and the analysis is pisspoor, but it's definitely getting screen time.
I was being flippant whilst watching the BBC news report on it. The ordinary people laying into others is disturbing.The US State Department has issued a rebuttal of Russia's claims:
1. Russia Claims: Russian agents are not active in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Government has arrested more than a dozen suspected Russian intelligence agents in recent weeks, many of whom were armed at the time of arrest.
2. Russia Claims: Pro-Russia demonstrations are comprised exclusively of Ukrainian citizens acting of their own volition, like the Maidan movement in Kyiv.
This is not the grassroots Ukrainian civic activism of the EuroMaidan movement, which grew from a handful of student protestors to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from all parts of the country and all walks of life. Russian internet sites openly are recruiting volunteers to travel from Russia to Ukraine and incite violence.
3. Russia Claims: Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine enjoy broad popular support.
The recent demonstrations in eastern Ukraine are not organic and lack wide support in the region. A large majority of Donetsk residents (65.7 percent) want to live in a united Ukraine and reject unification with Russia.
4. Russia Claims: The situation in eastern Ukraine risks spiraling into civil war.
What is going on in eastern Ukraine would not be happening without Russian disinformation and provocateurs fostering unrest. It would not be happening if a large Russian military force were not massed on the border, destabilizing the situation through their overtly threatening presence.
5. Russia Claims: Ukrainians in Donetsk rejected the illegitimate authorities in Kyiv and established the independent “People’s Republic of Donetsk.”
A broad and representative collection of civil society and non-governmental organizations in Donetsk categorically rejected the declaration of a “People’s Republic of Donetsk” by the small number of separatists occupying the regional administration building
6. Russia Claims: Russia ordered a “partial drawdown” of troops from the Ukrainian border.
No evidence shows significant movement of Russian forces away from the Ukrainian border.
7. Russia Claims: Ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under threat.
There are no credible reports of ethnic Russians facing threats in Ukraine.
8. Russia Claims: Ukraine’s new government is led by radical nationalists and fascists.
The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) did not change in February. It is the same Rada that was elected by all Ukrainians, comprising all of the parties that existed prior to February’s events, including former president Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. The new government, approved by an overwhelming majority in the parliament -- including many members of Yanukovych’s former party -- is committed to protecting the rights of all Ukrainians, including those in Crimea.
9. Russia Claims: Ethnic minorities face persecution in Ukraine from the “fascist” government in Kyiv.
Leaders of Ukraine’s Jewish as well as German, Czech, and Hungarian communities have all publicly expressed their sense of safety under the new authorities in Kyiv
10. Russia Claims: Russia is not using energy and trade as weapons against Ukraine.
Following Russia’s illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea, Russia raised the price Ukraine pays for natural gas by 80 percent in the past two weeks. In addition, it is seeking more than $11 billion in back payments following its abrogation of the 2010 Kharkiv accords.
1. Russia Claims: Russian agents are not active in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Government has arrested more than a dozen suspected Russian intelligence agents in recent weeks, many of whom were armed at the time of arrest.
2. Russia Claims: Pro-Russia demonstrations are comprised exclusively of Ukrainian citizens acting of their own volition, like the Maidan movement in Kyiv.
This is not the grassroots Ukrainian civic activism of the EuroMaidan movement, which grew from a handful of student protestors to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from all parts of the country and all walks of life. Russian internet sites openly are recruiting volunteers to travel from Russia to Ukraine and incite violence.
3. Russia Claims: Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine enjoy broad popular support.
The recent demonstrations in eastern Ukraine are not organic and lack wide support in the region. A large majority of Donetsk residents (65.7 percent) want to live in a united Ukraine and reject unification with Russia.
4. Russia Claims: The situation in eastern Ukraine risks spiraling into civil war.
What is going on in eastern Ukraine would not be happening without Russian disinformation and provocateurs fostering unrest. It would not be happening if a large Russian military force were not massed on the border, destabilizing the situation through their overtly threatening presence.
5. Russia Claims: Ukrainians in Donetsk rejected the illegitimate authorities in Kyiv and established the independent “People’s Republic of Donetsk.”
A broad and representative collection of civil society and non-governmental organizations in Donetsk categorically rejected the declaration of a “People’s Republic of Donetsk” by the small number of separatists occupying the regional administration building
6. Russia Claims: Russia ordered a “partial drawdown” of troops from the Ukrainian border.
No evidence shows significant movement of Russian forces away from the Ukrainian border.
7. Russia Claims: Ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under threat.
There are no credible reports of ethnic Russians facing threats in Ukraine.
8. Russia Claims: Ukraine’s new government is led by radical nationalists and fascists.
The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) did not change in February. It is the same Rada that was elected by all Ukrainians, comprising all of the parties that existed prior to February’s events, including former president Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. The new government, approved by an overwhelming majority in the parliament -- including many members of Yanukovych’s former party -- is committed to protecting the rights of all Ukrainians, including those in Crimea.
9. Russia Claims: Ethnic minorities face persecution in Ukraine from the “fascist” government in Kyiv.
Leaders of Ukraine’s Jewish as well as German, Czech, and Hungarian communities have all publicly expressed their sense of safety under the new authorities in Kyiv
10. Russia Claims: Russia is not using energy and trade as weapons against Ukraine.
Following Russia’s illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea, Russia raised the price Ukraine pays for natural gas by 80 percent in the past two weeks. In addition, it is seeking more than $11 billion in back payments following its abrogation of the 2010 Kharkiv accords.
DMN said:
The US State Department has issued a rebuttal of Russia's claims:
1. Russia Claims: Russian agents are not active in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Government has arrested more than a dozen suspected Russian intelligence agents in recent weeks, many of whom were armed at the time of arrest.
2. Russia Claims: Pro-Russia demonstrations are comprised exclusively of Ukrainian citizens acting of their own volition, like the Maidan movement in Kyiv.
This is not the grassroots Ukrainian civic activism of the EuroMaidan movement, which grew from a handful of student protestors to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from all parts of the country and all walks of life. Russian internet sites openly are recruiting volunteers to travel from Russia to Ukraine and incite violence.
3. Russia Claims: Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine enjoy broad popular support.
The recent demonstrations in eastern Ukraine are not organic and lack wide support in the region. A large majority of Donetsk residents (65.7 percent) want to live in a united Ukraine and reject unification with Russia.
4. Russia Claims: The situation in eastern Ukraine risks spiraling into civil war.
What is going on in eastern Ukraine would not be happening without Russian disinformation and provocateurs fostering unrest. It would not be happening if a large Russian military force were not massed on the border, destabilizing the situation through their overtly threatening presence.
5. Russia Claims: Ukrainians in Donetsk rejected the illegitimate authorities in Kyiv and established the independent “People’s Republic of Donetsk.”
A broad and representative collection of civil society and non-governmental organizations in Donetsk categorically rejected the declaration of a “People’s Republic of Donetsk” by the small number of separatists occupying the regional administration building
6. Russia Claims: Russia ordered a “partial drawdown” of troops from the Ukrainian border.
No evidence shows significant movement of Russian forces away from the Ukrainian border.
7. Russia Claims: Ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under threat.
There are no credible reports of ethnic Russians facing threats in Ukraine.
8. Russia Claims: Ukraine’s new government is led by radical nationalists and fascists.
The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) did not change in February. It is the same Rada that was elected by all Ukrainians, comprising all of the parties that existed prior to February’s events, including former president Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. The new government, approved by an overwhelming majority in the parliament -- including many members of Yanukovych’s former party -- is committed to protecting the rights of all Ukrainians, including those in Crimea.
9. Russia Claims: Ethnic minorities face persecution in Ukraine from the “fascist” government in Kyiv.
Leaders of Ukraine’s Jewish as well as German, Czech, and Hungarian communities have all publicly expressed their sense of safety under the new authorities in Kyiv
10. Russia Claims: Russia is not using energy and trade as weapons against Ukraine.
Following Russia’s illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea, Russia raised the price Ukraine pays for natural gas by 80 percent in the past two weeks. In addition, it is seeking more than $11 billion in back payments following its abrogation of the 2010 Kharkiv accords.
Yawn.1. Russia Claims: Russian agents are not active in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Government has arrested more than a dozen suspected Russian intelligence agents in recent weeks, many of whom were armed at the time of arrest.
2. Russia Claims: Pro-Russia demonstrations are comprised exclusively of Ukrainian citizens acting of their own volition, like the Maidan movement in Kyiv.
This is not the grassroots Ukrainian civic activism of the EuroMaidan movement, which grew from a handful of student protestors to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from all parts of the country and all walks of life. Russian internet sites openly are recruiting volunteers to travel from Russia to Ukraine and incite violence.
3. Russia Claims: Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine enjoy broad popular support.
The recent demonstrations in eastern Ukraine are not organic and lack wide support in the region. A large majority of Donetsk residents (65.7 percent) want to live in a united Ukraine and reject unification with Russia.
4. Russia Claims: The situation in eastern Ukraine risks spiraling into civil war.
What is going on in eastern Ukraine would not be happening without Russian disinformation and provocateurs fostering unrest. It would not be happening if a large Russian military force were not massed on the border, destabilizing the situation through their overtly threatening presence.
5. Russia Claims: Ukrainians in Donetsk rejected the illegitimate authorities in Kyiv and established the independent “People’s Republic of Donetsk.”
A broad and representative collection of civil society and non-governmental organizations in Donetsk categorically rejected the declaration of a “People’s Republic of Donetsk” by the small number of separatists occupying the regional administration building
6. Russia Claims: Russia ordered a “partial drawdown” of troops from the Ukrainian border.
No evidence shows significant movement of Russian forces away from the Ukrainian border.
7. Russia Claims: Ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under threat.
There are no credible reports of ethnic Russians facing threats in Ukraine.
8. Russia Claims: Ukraine’s new government is led by radical nationalists and fascists.
The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) did not change in February. It is the same Rada that was elected by all Ukrainians, comprising all of the parties that existed prior to February’s events, including former president Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. The new government, approved by an overwhelming majority in the parliament -- including many members of Yanukovych’s former party -- is committed to protecting the rights of all Ukrainians, including those in Crimea.
9. Russia Claims: Ethnic minorities face persecution in Ukraine from the “fascist” government in Kyiv.
Leaders of Ukraine’s Jewish as well as German, Czech, and Hungarian communities have all publicly expressed their sense of safety under the new authorities in Kyiv
10. Russia Claims: Russia is not using energy and trade as weapons against Ukraine.
Following Russia’s illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea, Russia raised the price Ukraine pays for natural gas by 80 percent in the past two weeks. In addition, it is seeking more than $11 billion in back payments following its abrogation of the 2010 Kharkiv accords.
scherzkeks said:
Yawn.
great contribution scherzkeks... really helpful 
in other news:
A map of separatist actions
Citizens of Zaporizhia pelt "pro-russians" with egg's
and some more non-Russian, concerned local civilians from Eastern Ukraine, protesting against the fascists from Kiev. Probably took a few days off from the factory in order to be at the protest:
Edited by skyrover on Monday 14th April 10:09
TheJimi said:
funkyrobot said:
TheJimi said:
That's a LOT of eggs.
I thought it was only a poultry amount.AK100 sub-machine gun being used by so called pro-Russian activists not normally available in Ukraine says Lithuanian FM:
http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/lithuanian_fm_lin...
http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/lithuanian_fm_lin...
Transmitter Man said:
AK100 sub-machine gun being used by so called pro-Russian activists not normally available in Ukraine says Lithuanian FM:
http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/lithuanian_fm_lin...
The clip they showed on the TV of the pro-Russian "militia" taking over the police station, was clearly fully trained soldiers going through a housing clearing operation.http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/lithuanian_fm_lin...
DMN said:
Transmitter Man said:
AK100 sub-machine gun being used by so called pro-Russian activists not normally available in Ukraine says Lithuanian FM:
http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/lithuanian_fm_lin...
The clip they showed on the TV of the pro-Russian "militia" taking over the police station, was clearly fully trained soldiers going through a housing clearing operation.http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/lithuanian_fm_lin...
I saw this earlier, which needs to be verified of course:
[i] Horlivka - The man in fatigues introduces himself as a lieutenant colonel of the Russian army https://t.co/Uh0HguuAeG via @OS1954
— Kevin Bishop (@bishopk) April 14, 2014 [/i]
Putin has until the 25th May to make his move, the day the people of the Ukraine Vote. After that date all of his rhetoric about facists and terrorists is null and void. I suspect we're seeing the opening moves of the occupation of Eastern Ukraine.
[i] Horlivka - The man in fatigues introduces himself as a lieutenant colonel of the Russian army https://t.co/Uh0HguuAeG via @OS1954
— Kevin Bishop (@bishopk) April 14, 2014 [/i]
Putin has until the 25th May to make his move, the day the people of the Ukraine Vote. After that date all of his rhetoric about facists and terrorists is null and void. I suspect we're seeing the opening moves of the occupation of Eastern Ukraine.
scherzkeks said:
skyrover said:
great contribution scherzkeks... really helpful
I gave the post the reaction it deserves in my mind. Endless streams of propaganda aren't really a contribution to the discussion.DMN said:
1. Russia Claims: Russian agents are not active in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Government has arrested more than a dozen suspected Russian intelligence agents in recent weeks, many of whom were armed at the time of arrest.
"Suspected", as in looked a bit foreign in a public place?The Ukrainian Government has arrested more than a dozen suspected Russian intelligence agents in recent weeks, many of whom were armed at the time of arrest.
DMN said:
This is not the grassroots Ukrainian civic activism of the EuroMaidan movement, which grew from a handful of student protestors to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians from all parts of the country and all walks of life.
Yeah, all those who didn't like the result of the last election and wouldn't wait for the next . . . civic activism is one way of looking at it, I suppose!DMN said:
The new government, approved by an overwhelming majority in the parliament -- including many members of Yanukovych’s former party -- is committed to protecting the rights of all Ukrainians, including those in Crimea.
They're Russian now guys, do try to keep up. (OK, me bad 
). DMN said:
Following Russia’s illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea . . .
Bit of an assertion there! It's done and it's legal (as in right of self determination of peoples).And so it goes on, remarkable only for its paucity of facts.
More "green men" in Sloviansk
US is considering supplying arms to Ukraine, as unrest continues in Eastern cities, an adviser to Secretary of State John Kerry says - @Reuters
FM Fabius of France: Next week there will be a meeting with the leaders of all EU countries during which the EU may impose new sanctions
US military officials say a Russian attack warplane engaged in 'provocative action' when it buzzed the US Navy guided missile destroyer Donald Cook in the western Black Sea on Saturday, April 12 - @NBCNews
The ministers of finance of US and Ukraine have signed the guarantee for a loan of 1 billion dollar. The US secretary of the treasury has said the US are ready to impose heavier sanctions.
'If the policemen in Horlivka don't step over on our side, we will execute them' - Russian separatists claim after taking the police station there
Russia may be playing a behind-the-scenes role in escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine, a German government spokeswoman says - @Reuters
Masked pro-Russian separatists reportedly seen attacking British photojournalist Frederick Paxton in the eastern Ukrainian town of Horlivka - @itvnews
US is considering supplying arms to Ukraine, as unrest continues in Eastern cities, an adviser to Secretary of State John Kerry says - @Reuters
FM Fabius of France: Next week there will be a meeting with the leaders of all EU countries during which the EU may impose new sanctions
US military officials say a Russian attack warplane engaged in 'provocative action' when it buzzed the US Navy guided missile destroyer Donald Cook in the western Black Sea on Saturday, April 12 - @NBCNews
The ministers of finance of US and Ukraine have signed the guarantee for a loan of 1 billion dollar. The US secretary of the treasury has said the US are ready to impose heavier sanctions.
'If the policemen in Horlivka don't step over on our side, we will execute them' - Russian separatists claim after taking the police station there
Russia may be playing a behind-the-scenes role in escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine, a German government spokeswoman says - @Reuters
Masked pro-Russian separatists reportedly seen attacking British photojournalist Frederick Paxton in the eastern Ukrainian town of Horlivka - @itvnews
Octoposse said:
It's done and it's legal.
Theres some irony that you followed up that sentence with this one:Octoposse said:
remarkable only for its paucity of facts.
Do the people of Ukraine have the right to self determination? Yes.Do the Russians have the right to stir up hatred, have their army take over an area and then give no option on the ballot paper for retaining the staus quo? No.
A vote where people are not allowed a choice is not a vote, legal or not.
A good article:
PeterInstituteforInternationalEconomics said:
Putin Needs Victory
“All we need is victory regardless of the cost.” So runs the refrain in a popular old Soviet film, “The Belarusian Railway Station,” about World War II veterans. This line probably explains President Vladimir Putin’s policy on Ukraine. The latest developments, including the seizure by Russian operatives of police stations in several towns in eastern Ukraine, make it increasingly clear that Putin’s game plan is to destabilize the region and use the chaos as an excuse to invade. A Russian military invasion of all of Ukraine, including the capital of Kiev, cannot be ruled out. It is time for the West to stop the waiting game and escalate its sanctions against Russia to avoid a catastrophe.
The sequence of events this year has made Putin’s plans obvious. Evidently, the Russia president decided to annex Crimea himself with a few close former KGB officers. His decision-making power is nearly absolute. He has successfully built up a neofeudal system based on crony capitalists, state capitalists, and top state security officials. The feudal lords are richly remunerated at the cost of the state and remain loyal. Such a feudal system is politically stable, but economically stagnant, since it is alien to reform.
Ukraine’s democratic breakthrough and European integration posed an existential threat to Putin’s system. The democratic breakthrough challenged his domestic power, and the European Association Agreement offered to Ukraine would have ended his neoimperialist project called the Eurasian Union, designed to bring together the former Soviet republics.
Putin, who is an astute tactician and improviser but a poor strategist, concluded that he had to act. As the new democratic Ukrainian government was appointed on February 27, unmarked Russian special forces occupied the Crimean parliament, and the next day they seized the Crimean airports. Three weeks later Crimea had been annexed by Russia in an extraordinary act of aggression, but no fewer than 88 percent of Russians approved this incorporation of their traditional favorite holiday spot.
After the Russian annexation of Crimea, the predominant Western view was that Putin would stop. But by annexing Crimea, Putin risked alienating the remaining 96 percent of the Ukrainian population. Democracy could evolve in the country, and Ukraine would opt for European integration. Crimea was not a victory, only an appetizer. To achieve a victory, Putin has to proceed to widen his aggression. He faces three options: to control, devastate, or incorporate Ukraine.
Officially, Russia is demanding a new constitution for Ukraine, neutralizing and federalizing the country. But Ukraine has no reason to accept its emasculation. Putin lives in the illusion that Washington and Brussels dictate everything in Ukraine. Therefore, he does not want to negotiate with Ukraine but with the United States and possibly the European Union. Yet Washington and Brussels will not accept such a constitution for Ukraine. Still, a new constitution remains the official Russian goal. On April 17, the four parties are supposed to meet with one another in Geneva for an abortive negotiation.
Putin is left with two alternatives. He can destabilize Ukraine through covert subversion, using trade and gas sanctions to make sure that the country fails so that democracy does not appear attractive to Russians. This scenario is being implemented with Russian nationalist bikers and military “tourists” who are being bussed into Ukraine’s East to cause disturbances. On April 6, a masked and armed crowd occupied the Kharkiv Opera House in the belief that it was the government’s regional administrative headquarters, showing the absence of local participation. Yet, separatism for the Russian-speaking population is not catching on at all. The Russian provocations are too obvious.
That leaves Putin with one single plausible option: military invasion. On Saturday, April 12, small groups of what were obviously Russian special forces in their usual uniforms and with sophisticated armament—but without insignias—occupied police stations in several towns in the Donetsk region. This looked exactly like the Russian seizure of the Crimean Parliament.
So far, the Ukrainian government has avoided responding with force for several reasons. Deposed President Viktor Yanukovych allowed Russian secret services to infiltrate Ukraine’s security services and military, rendering them unreliable. Moscow wants corpses to show that Ukraine has fallen into chaos to justify its armed intervention, which Kiev wants to avoid. Finally, Ukraine was completely unprepared for this aggression, and it needs time for mobilization.
Today, Ukraine has little choice but to meet this covert military aggression with military force. Putin has crossed the Rubicon. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted on April 13: “Over the past few hours we’ve witnessed the worst-case scenario playing out in Ukraine.” All the defenders and apologists of Putin have turned out to be wrong and can now be disregarded.
The question remains whether the Kremlin intends to take the whole of Ukraine or only half of it. In early November, Russian state television showed a map on how Ukraine should be divided. An alleged Russian national security council memorandum has been leaked, showing how Russia would seize 11 eastern regions as well as Kiev, annexing more than half the country. Yet, the well-informed former Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski claims that Russia’s aim is to seize the whole of Ukraine.
Not only does Putin want to record a victory in Ukraine, he needs to do so fast. His deadline is May 25, when Ukraine is scheduled to hold presidential elections. Putin claims that Ukraine has no legitimate or constitutional government, but at the same time he wants to postpone the Ukrainian presidential election, which would provide Ukraine with a fully-legitimate president.
To judge from recent opinion polls, the presidential election is between two veteran pro-European politicians, Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko. Whoever wins, the new Ukrainian president would have democratic legitimacy, unlike Putin. Therefore, he wants to make sure that the election does not take place, and the safest way of doing so is to invade Ukraine militarily.
This reasoning leads to three conclusions. First, Putin will not stop unless he faces horrendous obstacles. Second, Western sanctions to date have failed because they have not made Putin change course. Unfortunately, the United States and the European Union have persistently been behind the curve. Third, Russia and the West have ended up in a squirrel’s wheel of tit-for-tat. Neither side has any strategy. Mindlessly, they wander along a road without knowing where it leads.
Given that Putin has launched a war in eastern Ukraine, it would be rather optimistic to hope that mere sanctions would stop him. Moreover, the West has probably less credibility with Putin than President Kennedy had with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev after their disastrous summit in Vienna in 1961. That debacle led to the Cuban missile crisis. After Russia’s war in Georgia in August 2008, the West made some noise, but soon it turned quiet, ignoring the Russian aggression. Clearly, Putin expects that to happen once again.
Considering its lack of credibility, the West needs to step up its sanctions instantly and dramatically to a near Iran level. Presumably, this will not be sufficient to stop a war in Europe, but the West needs to finally get serious.
The good news for the West is that Russia is highly vulnerable. Its GDP is slightly less than 3 percent of global output, or 6 percent of NATO’s output. Its military expenditures are less than one-tenth of NATO’s, and half of Russia’s arms procurement cost is probably lost on kickbacks. Russia is far too weak to be so aggressive, and it has no allies.
Its economic weakness is conspicuous. The market volatility in March, partially caused by the threat of sanctions, has shaved off about 2 percentage points from Russia’s expected GDP this year. Capital outflows amounted to $64 billion in the first quarter, slightly more than 3 percent of GDP, and they are now expected to rise to some $150 billion for the year as a whole. This will hit Russia’s investment, consumption, and growth.
The ruble has fallen, and inflation has risen, forcing the Central Bank of Russia to raise interest rates by 150 basis points. With continued Russian aggression in Ukraine, and stricter Western sanctions, Russia can easily see a fall in its GDP of 2 to 4 percent this year. That will hurt Russia’s standard of living, which has been vital for Putin’s popularity. Perhaps there is a limit to how much economic damage Putin can tolerate. The West needs to test this hypothesis by imposing a truly great cost upon him with a broad array of sanctions. Obviously, the West should also supply arms to Ukraine as fast as possible.
The West has no reason to worry about Putin losing face. He is used to losing face and saving himself through skillful improvisation or manipulation. Rather than apologizing for Russian atrocities in Chechnya, he celebrated them as a victory. He unleashed the shoot-out of hundreds of child hostages in Beslan in September 2005 and used it to reinforce his authoritarian powers. After President Obama snubbed him by refusing to go to Moscow for a bilateral summit in September 2013 and threatened to bomb Syria, Putin came up with the clever idea of eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons. Putin is not interested in any win-win game. On the contrary, to him victory means that his enemy loses.
The West needs to recognize that it cannot afford not to stop Putin. The earlier and more effectively that is accomplished, the lower the cost will be. The obvious parallel is the West’s failure to stop Nazi Germany in time in 1938.
http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=4275#.U0wx3kWIX2...“All we need is victory regardless of the cost.” So runs the refrain in a popular old Soviet film, “The Belarusian Railway Station,” about World War II veterans. This line probably explains President Vladimir Putin’s policy on Ukraine. The latest developments, including the seizure by Russian operatives of police stations in several towns in eastern Ukraine, make it increasingly clear that Putin’s game plan is to destabilize the region and use the chaos as an excuse to invade. A Russian military invasion of all of Ukraine, including the capital of Kiev, cannot be ruled out. It is time for the West to stop the waiting game and escalate its sanctions against Russia to avoid a catastrophe.
The sequence of events this year has made Putin’s plans obvious. Evidently, the Russia president decided to annex Crimea himself with a few close former KGB officers. His decision-making power is nearly absolute. He has successfully built up a neofeudal system based on crony capitalists, state capitalists, and top state security officials. The feudal lords are richly remunerated at the cost of the state and remain loyal. Such a feudal system is politically stable, but economically stagnant, since it is alien to reform.
Ukraine’s democratic breakthrough and European integration posed an existential threat to Putin’s system. The democratic breakthrough challenged his domestic power, and the European Association Agreement offered to Ukraine would have ended his neoimperialist project called the Eurasian Union, designed to bring together the former Soviet republics.
Putin, who is an astute tactician and improviser but a poor strategist, concluded that he had to act. As the new democratic Ukrainian government was appointed on February 27, unmarked Russian special forces occupied the Crimean parliament, and the next day they seized the Crimean airports. Three weeks later Crimea had been annexed by Russia in an extraordinary act of aggression, but no fewer than 88 percent of Russians approved this incorporation of their traditional favorite holiday spot.
After the Russian annexation of Crimea, the predominant Western view was that Putin would stop. But by annexing Crimea, Putin risked alienating the remaining 96 percent of the Ukrainian population. Democracy could evolve in the country, and Ukraine would opt for European integration. Crimea was not a victory, only an appetizer. To achieve a victory, Putin has to proceed to widen his aggression. He faces three options: to control, devastate, or incorporate Ukraine.
Officially, Russia is demanding a new constitution for Ukraine, neutralizing and federalizing the country. But Ukraine has no reason to accept its emasculation. Putin lives in the illusion that Washington and Brussels dictate everything in Ukraine. Therefore, he does not want to negotiate with Ukraine but with the United States and possibly the European Union. Yet Washington and Brussels will not accept such a constitution for Ukraine. Still, a new constitution remains the official Russian goal. On April 17, the four parties are supposed to meet with one another in Geneva for an abortive negotiation.
Putin is left with two alternatives. He can destabilize Ukraine through covert subversion, using trade and gas sanctions to make sure that the country fails so that democracy does not appear attractive to Russians. This scenario is being implemented with Russian nationalist bikers and military “tourists” who are being bussed into Ukraine’s East to cause disturbances. On April 6, a masked and armed crowd occupied the Kharkiv Opera House in the belief that it was the government’s regional administrative headquarters, showing the absence of local participation. Yet, separatism for the Russian-speaking population is not catching on at all. The Russian provocations are too obvious.
That leaves Putin with one single plausible option: military invasion. On Saturday, April 12, small groups of what were obviously Russian special forces in their usual uniforms and with sophisticated armament—but without insignias—occupied police stations in several towns in the Donetsk region. This looked exactly like the Russian seizure of the Crimean Parliament.
So far, the Ukrainian government has avoided responding with force for several reasons. Deposed President Viktor Yanukovych allowed Russian secret services to infiltrate Ukraine’s security services and military, rendering them unreliable. Moscow wants corpses to show that Ukraine has fallen into chaos to justify its armed intervention, which Kiev wants to avoid. Finally, Ukraine was completely unprepared for this aggression, and it needs time for mobilization.
Today, Ukraine has little choice but to meet this covert military aggression with military force. Putin has crossed the Rubicon. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted on April 13: “Over the past few hours we’ve witnessed the worst-case scenario playing out in Ukraine.” All the defenders and apologists of Putin have turned out to be wrong and can now be disregarded.
The question remains whether the Kremlin intends to take the whole of Ukraine or only half of it. In early November, Russian state television showed a map on how Ukraine should be divided. An alleged Russian national security council memorandum has been leaked, showing how Russia would seize 11 eastern regions as well as Kiev, annexing more than half the country. Yet, the well-informed former Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski claims that Russia’s aim is to seize the whole of Ukraine.
Not only does Putin want to record a victory in Ukraine, he needs to do so fast. His deadline is May 25, when Ukraine is scheduled to hold presidential elections. Putin claims that Ukraine has no legitimate or constitutional government, but at the same time he wants to postpone the Ukrainian presidential election, which would provide Ukraine with a fully-legitimate president.
To judge from recent opinion polls, the presidential election is between two veteran pro-European politicians, Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko. Whoever wins, the new Ukrainian president would have democratic legitimacy, unlike Putin. Therefore, he wants to make sure that the election does not take place, and the safest way of doing so is to invade Ukraine militarily.
This reasoning leads to three conclusions. First, Putin will not stop unless he faces horrendous obstacles. Second, Western sanctions to date have failed because they have not made Putin change course. Unfortunately, the United States and the European Union have persistently been behind the curve. Third, Russia and the West have ended up in a squirrel’s wheel of tit-for-tat. Neither side has any strategy. Mindlessly, they wander along a road without knowing where it leads.
Given that Putin has launched a war in eastern Ukraine, it would be rather optimistic to hope that mere sanctions would stop him. Moreover, the West has probably less credibility with Putin than President Kennedy had with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev after their disastrous summit in Vienna in 1961. That debacle led to the Cuban missile crisis. After Russia’s war in Georgia in August 2008, the West made some noise, but soon it turned quiet, ignoring the Russian aggression. Clearly, Putin expects that to happen once again.
Considering its lack of credibility, the West needs to step up its sanctions instantly and dramatically to a near Iran level. Presumably, this will not be sufficient to stop a war in Europe, but the West needs to finally get serious.
The good news for the West is that Russia is highly vulnerable. Its GDP is slightly less than 3 percent of global output, or 6 percent of NATO’s output. Its military expenditures are less than one-tenth of NATO’s, and half of Russia’s arms procurement cost is probably lost on kickbacks. Russia is far too weak to be so aggressive, and it has no allies.
Its economic weakness is conspicuous. The market volatility in March, partially caused by the threat of sanctions, has shaved off about 2 percentage points from Russia’s expected GDP this year. Capital outflows amounted to $64 billion in the first quarter, slightly more than 3 percent of GDP, and they are now expected to rise to some $150 billion for the year as a whole. This will hit Russia’s investment, consumption, and growth.
The ruble has fallen, and inflation has risen, forcing the Central Bank of Russia to raise interest rates by 150 basis points. With continued Russian aggression in Ukraine, and stricter Western sanctions, Russia can easily see a fall in its GDP of 2 to 4 percent this year. That will hurt Russia’s standard of living, which has been vital for Putin’s popularity. Perhaps there is a limit to how much economic damage Putin can tolerate. The West needs to test this hypothesis by imposing a truly great cost upon him with a broad array of sanctions. Obviously, the West should also supply arms to Ukraine as fast as possible.
The West has no reason to worry about Putin losing face. He is used to losing face and saving himself through skillful improvisation or manipulation. Rather than apologizing for Russian atrocities in Chechnya, he celebrated them as a victory. He unleashed the shoot-out of hundreds of child hostages in Beslan in September 2005 and used it to reinforce his authoritarian powers. After President Obama snubbed him by refusing to go to Moscow for a bilateral summit in September 2013 and threatened to bomb Syria, Putin came up with the clever idea of eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons. Putin is not interested in any win-win game. On the contrary, to him victory means that his enemy loses.
The West needs to recognize that it cannot afford not to stop Putin. The earlier and more effectively that is accomplished, the lower the cost will be. The obvious parallel is the West’s failure to stop Nazi Germany in time in 1938.
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