War with Russia

[Mermaid]

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

[skyrover]

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

The markets will be his downfall before any military action. Russia simply can't afford it.

Russia Debt Rating Cut to Step Above Junk at S&P

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/russia-s-...

Interestingly investment in Poland is soaring at the moment as it falls flat in Russia

[Mermaid]

skyrover said:

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

The markets will be his downfall before any military action. Russia simply can't afford it.

Russia Debt Rating Cut to Step Above Junk at S&P

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/russia-s-...

Interestingly investment in Poland is soaring at the moment as it falls flat in Russia

I agree -££££$$$$'s will prevail.

[Fittster]

Mermaid said:

skyrover said:

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

The markets will be his downfall before any military action. Russia simply can't afford it.

Russia Debt Rating Cut to Step Above Junk at S&P

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/russia-s-...

Interestingly investment in Poland is soaring at the moment as it falls flat in Russia

I agree -££££$$$$'s will prevail.

So gas bills are going to be very high this winter.

Out of interest what's was the Soviet Unions debt rating when it took over most of eastern europe?

[Fittster]

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

You think Kiev is going to get back control of Crimea?

[Mermaid]

Fittster said:

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

You think Kiev is going to get back control of Crimea?

I don't rule it out unless Putin makes a grand deal with the West that is for the greater good.

[toppstuff]

skyrover said:

The markets will be his downfall before any military action. Russia simply can't afford it.

Russia Debt Rating Cut to Step Above Junk at S&P

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/russia-s-...

Interestingly investment in Poland is soaring at the moment as it falls flat in Russia

This.

Russia now is NOT the same as the Soviet Union.

Modern Russia must trade with the West or it rapidly turns into a poor country with little more than drunken turnip farmers. It only has oil and gas ( when was the last time you purchased something Russian- made??) and if the West decides to secure its long term supply elsewhere then Russia has no future.

Putin knows this. He'll take what he can from the East of Ukraine, then put his shirt back on, go home and play the hero. He'll then hope everyone forgets about it and business returns to normal.

[RedTrident]

So the Ukrainian Prime Minister are now talking about a risk of WW3. Absolute bks. Russia will step in and protect their interests in the areas where a significant number of people want to be Russian. If in a similar position and if able to the US/UK/Anyone else would do the same.

Maybe if they hadn't tried to ban Russian as the second official language on the first day they took control things wouldn't have turned out so badly.

[Mermaid]

RedTrident said:

So the Ukrainian Prime Minister are now talking about a risk of WW3. Absolute bks. Russia will step in and protect their interests in the areas where a significant number of people want to be Russian. If in a similar position and if able to the US/UK/Anyone else would do the same.

Maybe if they hadn't tried to ban Russian as the second official language on the first day they took control things wouldn't have turned out so badly.

Cannot argue with that.

[Fittster]

Mermaid said:

Fittster said:

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

You think Kiev is going to get back control of Crimea?

I don't rule it out unless Putin makes a grand deal with the West that is for the greater good.

The greater good? Do you think the population of Crimea want's to be ruled by Kiev or Moscow?

[Fittster]

toppstuff said:

Modern Russia must trade with the West or it rapidly turns into a poor country with little more than drunken turnip farmers. It only has oil and gas ( when was the last time you purchased something Russian- made??) and if the West decides to secure its long term supply elsewhere then Russia has no future.

Who knew that the far east doesn't use gas or oil and that the people of Europe are happy to face much higher energy bills to support the population of Ukraine.

There's plenty of people in the world who want cheap energy and good proportion of the population of Eastern Ukraine want to be ruled by Moscow.

[TheJimi]

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

Who said anything about him winning?

There's a difference in concept between winning and not backing down.

[skyrover]

Latest updates:

In the OSCE bus that was taken by separatists there were 13 people: 7 OSCE members, 5 people from the Ukrainian army and the driver

The separatists say they will not release them, since they have first to meet with their authorities of the Russian federation

Among the kidnapped OSCE member there are 3 persons from Germany and 1 from Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Denmark

Russia says it will not take part in another round of talks on Ukraine in Geneva

Ukrainian energy company DTEK has informed Crimea it might cut the gas supply

Sloviansk says it won't give up. The city is now encircled by the Ukrainian army and National Guard

Angela Merkel today supported the Polish idea for a European Energy Union:

'In principle, Germany supports Poland's idea of European energy partnership but details must be worked out'

Earlier France and the UK gave Tusk their support

[nikaiyo2]

skyrover said:

http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttra...

He's not Churchill is he

[skyrover]

Latest pole... interesting results:

Are your rights as a Russian speaker violated in Ukraine?
Yes - 23%
No - 71%

Are your rights as a Russian speaker violated in your region?
Yes - 4%
No - 96%

http://www.tvn24.pl/sily-ukrainskie-zniszczyly-pos...

[hidetheelephants]

[tinfoil hat]
Putin takes Ukrainian action as a casus belli, invades eastern Ukraine and repeats his actions in Crimea; dodgy plebicite endorses union with Russia; NATO issues strongly worded press release; rUkraine waits for apocalypse, but it doesn't arrive; western capital flees Russia causing economic chaos, mitigated by enlarged sales of O&G to China; 2 years later China annexes Siberia(minor tactical nuclear exchange follows Russian rout), but they don't bother mucking about with plebicites; NATO issues another strongly worded press release.
[/tinfoil hat]

[SlipStream77]

hidetheelephants said:

I wish people wouldn't call them tanks; they're armoured personnel carriers, and fairly crappy ones at that. It's the russian equivalent of a Saxon, a biscuit tin on wheels.

A BTR-90 is hardly a Saxon equivalent, it weighs twice as much and is armed with a 30mm cannon. Additionally it is sometimes fitted with the the AT-5 missile system. Essentially it has the similar offensive capability as a BMP2.

Edited by SlipStream77 on Friday 25th April 23:03

[skyrover]

Spotted in east Romania 2 days ago... obviously not taking any chances

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INQcZ2JkIWM

According to American military officials Russian fighter jets have violated Ukrainian airspace several times during the last 24 hours

http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/1,114912,15...

[Talksteer]

SlipStream77 said:

hidetheelephants said:

I wish people wouldn't call them tanks; they're armoured personnel carriers, and fairly crappy ones at that. It's the russian equivalent of a Saxon, a biscuit tin on wheels.

A BTR-90 is hardly a Saxon equivalent, it weighs twice as much and is armed with a 30mm cannon. Additionally it is sometimes fitted with the the AT-5 missile system. Essentially it has the similar offensive capability as a BMP2.

Those are BTR-80's, the BTR-90 never made it into service.

Most of them carry a heavy machine gun rather than a 30mm cannon, probably a 5 to 1 ration in that video.

The biggest difference between the BTR and the Saxon is however mobility and a low profile. The BTR has 8 wheel drive and more power meaning that it can handle most tactical terrain, whereas the Saxon performs like an overloaded Bedford truck.

However the video is demonstrating the effectiveness of this type of vehicle in that they can simple self deploy by road (or off it).

We should field something bad ass like this:



However due to blown budgets we will be fielding this liability in a conflict where the adversary has AT capability.

[Octoposse]

Fittster said:

Mermaid said:

TheJimi said:

I really can't see Putin backing down over this, as such, this whole thing ain't gonna end well

I can't see Putin winning.

You think Kiev is going to get back control of Crimea?

About the same time Mexico gets back Texas.

Crimea is now part of Russia. End of. Neither Putin nor any subsequent leader can in any conceivable set of circumstances backtrack.

There's an obvious deal to be done recognising that fact (new constitution in Ukraine, security guarantees, more local autonomy stopping short of federalism), and the sooner 'we' step up to the plate and do the deal rather than grandstanding, the fewer lives lost and lives ruined there will be, and Ukraine less polarised. (It's getting like Israel/Palestine - everybody (OK, bar 0.5% of swivel eyed loons on both sides) knows what a peace deal must look like, they just won't get there).

Worryingly and depressingly, I see no signs of lessons learned or contrition in Brussels or Washington at the calamity following cheerleading (at the very least), or active encouragement, of regime change in a democracy, in a state in which we have no vital strategic interest, but a neighbouring significant power has. Sheer reckless stupidity.