War with Russia
Discussion
skyrover said:
$10.60 per mmBtu for EU vs $9-10 to China, figures still not finalized. And $25Bn prepayment. Btw, any news what happened with investigation into killing of civilians by burning them inside TV building? You seem to follow Ukrainian sources quite closely.
So, anything? Apart from laughable attempt at spin on how this is a bad deal for ruskies.
league67 said:
skyrover said:
$10.60 per mmBtu for EU vs $9-10 to China, figures still not finalized. And $25Bn prepayment. Btw, any news what happened with investigation into killing of civilians by burning them inside TV building? You seem to follow Ukrainian sources quite closely.
So, anything? Apart from laughable attempt at spin on how this is a bad deal for ruskies.
Regarding the fire in Odessa, there is some evidence emerging that those who died were killed by vapours from chloroform, not necessarily the smoke and flames.
The perpetrators have not been caught.
skyrover said:
league67 said:
skyrover said:
$10.60 per mmBtu for EU vs $9-10 to China, figures still not finalized. And $25Bn prepayment. Btw, any news what happened with investigation into killing of civilians by burning them inside TV building? You seem to follow Ukrainian sources quite closely.
So, anything? Apart from laughable attempt at spin on how this is a bad deal for ruskies.
Regarding the fire in Odessa, there is some evidence emerging that those who died were killed by vapours from chloroform, not necessarily the smoke and flames.
The perpetrators have not been caught.
As for the fire, you are not being serious, are you? You are suggesting that people, trapped in the building, burning building were poisoned by chloroform? To what end and by whom?
Ah right, surprisingly, perpetrators were never found.
league67 said:
So nothing, on gas deal then. Where is this discontent. It looks to me, at the quick glance, that it's a very good deal. Especially the part of getting $25Bn in advance. If the price gets anywhere near $10, and it looks like that it will that renders your statement 'bellow market prices' as correct as most of your post on this thread.
Did you read the article I linked? league67 said:
As for the fire, you are not being serious, are you? You are suggesting that people, trapped in the building, burning building were poisoned by chloroform? To what end and by whom?
We don't know... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-19/ukraine-i...
Some suspects have been arrested but nobody has been tried.
Ukraine has asked Israel to send specialists to investigate.
Edited by skyrover on Thursday 19th June 17:36
The villages of Yampil and Kirovsk in the Donetsk Oblast have been freed from "terrorists"
http://espreso.tv/news/2014/06/19/na_donechchyni_v...
Ukraine's President Poroshenko says he will sign the association agreement with the European Union on June 27 - @Reuters
NATO: Russians resume military buildup near Ukraine, 'several thousand' more troops deployed - @AP
http://espreso.tv/news/2014/06/19/na_donechchyni_v...
Ukraine's President Poroshenko says he will sign the association agreement with the European Union on June 27 - @Reuters
NATO: Russians resume military buildup near Ukraine, 'several thousand' more troops deployed - @AP
Turkey Is the Big Winner Following the Crisis in Ukraine
usinvestors said:
Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the possibility of further action taken in Ukraine and other former Soviet Bloc nations have led many investors to wonder, understandably so, what impact the crisis has had on investment opportunities in Eastern Europe. To unravel these concerns and more, U.S. Global’s Director of Research John Derrick caught up with Gavin Graham of VoiceAmerica’s “Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing” program.
Below you can read some of the interview highlights, in which John speculates on who were the winners and losers in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He also touches briefly on the violence that has recently erupted in Iraqi Kurdistan and what effect it might have on neighboring Turkey.
Which European countries have the greatest potential and have benefited the most from what’s been happening?
I think Poland’s been a beneficiary. It’s used as a safe haven in the region: stable economy, stable political environment. It’s benefited from the European recovery and doesn’t have that much trade with Russia.
I think Turkey has benefited, more from a money flow standpoint. If you were worried about what was going on in Russia and some of the longer-term implications, I think money flowed into places like Turkey. Money also flowed into places like Greece because a lot of the international investors tend to be regional investors, and within that region, there are shift allocations into places like Turkey, which has been a very strong performer this year. Part of that money is coming out of Russia.
That’s a very fair point because, as you say, if you’re running a dedicated Eastern European fund, Russia’s been overwhelmingly the largest weight within it, though a fair number of people were underweight even before Crimea because of concerns about governance and the like. Nonetheless, where are you going to go? Turkey is obviously a major market. Some of the reasons you like it include the demographics as well as the government’s pro-business attitude.
Exactly. If you just take a step back and look at the long-term secular growth, the demographics are very positive. There’s an entrepreneurial culture in Turkey: good government policies generally speaking toward business development, toward foreign investors. Basically business can get done, businesses can be created, and all those kinds of things that most Americans can relate to.
It’s still an emerging market country, and they’ll do things that you’ll look at and scratch your head, like banning Twitter or Facebook. But the political situation has definitely calmed down, and so I think the long-term secular story for Turkey is probably the best long-term secular story in the region. That’s what you want to hitch your wagon to over the long run.
Now I know that maybe one or two eyebrows will have been raised by you mentioning that Greece has been seen as a safe haven, but you are very right and very early in picking Greece as a market that had some very positive changes taking place. Do you want to just briefly recap where we are now?
Six years into a recession, Greece is finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. They’ve made some significant structural changes. Essentially the banking system has been consolidated down. There are now four major players there. All in the last month, they actually have recapitalized, raised money. That put some pressure on the Greek market and banks over the last month or so, and it puts them on a much firmer footing. The banking system can function more properly, and you can actually start seeing real growth.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been very supportive. The ECB announced a TARP-like program where you can get long-term funding—essentially a four-year repo currently at 25 basis points. That’s going to be positive for peripheral banks in general whether it’s Greece or Spain or Italy.
They’ve also talked about doing a securitization program where you get some kind of quantitative easing. All those kinds of incremental things are very positive for Greece. After six years of recession, they’re finally starting to come out of it. It’s just like a natural cycle. It doesn’t stay bad forever. That’s going to continue for the next 12 to 18 months.
Which is about as long as one can look ahead, especially with exciting things like the Ukrainian crisis happening. Briefly, in terms of those countries, which don’t look as attractive? Presumably the Baltic republics, which are seen as being more vulnerable, given what happened with Crimea and Ukraine?
Definitely. There’s concern there that Russian expansionism is going to continue. Will NATO really defend those countries if Russia tries to re-exert its influence in those regions? I think those have been areas that have been hurt by the crisis because they’re viewed as the next dominoes, if you will. Obviously those are not big markets and have limited investment opportunities, but definitely I think they’ve been negatively impacted. People aren’t really sure what the Russians’ ultimate goals are here, what they’re really trying to accomplish: are they done, or are they trying to recreate the Soviet Union?
http://www.usfunds.com/investor-library/frank-talk...Below you can read some of the interview highlights, in which John speculates on who were the winners and losers in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He also touches briefly on the violence that has recently erupted in Iraqi Kurdistan and what effect it might have on neighboring Turkey.
Which European countries have the greatest potential and have benefited the most from what’s been happening?
I think Poland’s been a beneficiary. It’s used as a safe haven in the region: stable economy, stable political environment. It’s benefited from the European recovery and doesn’t have that much trade with Russia.
I think Turkey has benefited, more from a money flow standpoint. If you were worried about what was going on in Russia and some of the longer-term implications, I think money flowed into places like Turkey. Money also flowed into places like Greece because a lot of the international investors tend to be regional investors, and within that region, there are shift allocations into places like Turkey, which has been a very strong performer this year. Part of that money is coming out of Russia.
That’s a very fair point because, as you say, if you’re running a dedicated Eastern European fund, Russia’s been overwhelmingly the largest weight within it, though a fair number of people were underweight even before Crimea because of concerns about governance and the like. Nonetheless, where are you going to go? Turkey is obviously a major market. Some of the reasons you like it include the demographics as well as the government’s pro-business attitude.
Exactly. If you just take a step back and look at the long-term secular growth, the demographics are very positive. There’s an entrepreneurial culture in Turkey: good government policies generally speaking toward business development, toward foreign investors. Basically business can get done, businesses can be created, and all those kinds of things that most Americans can relate to.
It’s still an emerging market country, and they’ll do things that you’ll look at and scratch your head, like banning Twitter or Facebook. But the political situation has definitely calmed down, and so I think the long-term secular story for Turkey is probably the best long-term secular story in the region. That’s what you want to hitch your wagon to over the long run.
Now I know that maybe one or two eyebrows will have been raised by you mentioning that Greece has been seen as a safe haven, but you are very right and very early in picking Greece as a market that had some very positive changes taking place. Do you want to just briefly recap where we are now?
Six years into a recession, Greece is finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. They’ve made some significant structural changes. Essentially the banking system has been consolidated down. There are now four major players there. All in the last month, they actually have recapitalized, raised money. That put some pressure on the Greek market and banks over the last month or so, and it puts them on a much firmer footing. The banking system can function more properly, and you can actually start seeing real growth.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been very supportive. The ECB announced a TARP-like program where you can get long-term funding—essentially a four-year repo currently at 25 basis points. That’s going to be positive for peripheral banks in general whether it’s Greece or Spain or Italy.
They’ve also talked about doing a securitization program where you get some kind of quantitative easing. All those kinds of incremental things are very positive for Greece. After six years of recession, they’re finally starting to come out of it. It’s just like a natural cycle. It doesn’t stay bad forever. That’s going to continue for the next 12 to 18 months.
Which is about as long as one can look ahead, especially with exciting things like the Ukrainian crisis happening. Briefly, in terms of those countries, which don’t look as attractive? Presumably the Baltic republics, which are seen as being more vulnerable, given what happened with Crimea and Ukraine?
Definitely. There’s concern there that Russian expansionism is going to continue. Will NATO really defend those countries if Russia tries to re-exert its influence in those regions? I think those have been areas that have been hurt by the crisis because they’re viewed as the next dominoes, if you will. Obviously those are not big markets and have limited investment opportunities, but definitely I think they’ve been negatively impacted. People aren’t really sure what the Russians’ ultimate goals are here, what they’re really trying to accomplish: are they done, or are they trying to recreate the Soviet Union?
It starts. Several columns of Russian tanks, APCs and trucks are now rolling in east Ukraine:
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/06/open-russi...
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/06/russia-sen...
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/06/open-russi...
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/06/russia-sen...
The rebels are now resorting to stealing tanks from museums!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2683271/Uk...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2683271/Uk...
ChemicalChaos said:
The rebels are now resorting to stealing tanks from museums!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2683271/Uk...
Atleast it's not like the is-3 Stalin they stole with its unobtainable ammo, but like it, the t-54 has bugger all chance against ukraines modern T-64BM with iirc 100cm of armour and an incoming weapon defeat system!http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2683271/Uk...
ChemicalChaos said:
The rebels are now resorting to stealing tanks from museums!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2683271/Uk...
Loving the minefield; really difficult to spot where they're laid. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2683271/Uk...
That's not a tank, it's a target.skyrover said:
Where do you folks get your news.... RT? confused
It would seem they [RT] do provide the other side of the balance.Taking a viewpoint solely based up on the likes of BBC, SKY, FOX, CNN etc. will not provide a true/real insight.
Viewing news from different 'outlets' may allow one to find a scent of reality reading between the lines of each of their agendas.
AA999 said:
It would seem they [RT] do provide the other side of the balance.
Taking a viewpoint solely based up on the likes of BBC, SKY, FOX, CNN etc. will not provide a true/real insight.
Viewing news from different 'outlets' may allow one to find a scent of reality reading between the lines of each of their agendas.
Ah yes... some examples of russian "journalism" Taking a viewpoint solely based up on the likes of BBC, SKY, FOX, CNN etc. will not provide a true/real insight.
Viewing news from different 'outlets' may allow one to find a scent of reality reading between the lines of each of their agendas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVT_oaMmOIc
AA999 said:
How very 'tabloid' of you 
Choose a couple of words, put them together to form your own context.
You said "the other side of the balance" ... which is a little hard to understand but seems to suggest that you'd consider RT to be a useful counter balance to organisations like the BBC to some extent. That strikes me as rather naive. Choose a couple of words, put them together to form your own context.
ATG said:
You said "the other side of the balance" ... which is a little hard to understand but seems to suggest that you'd consider RT to be a useful counter balance to organisations like the BBC to some extent. That strikes me as rather naive.
Depends on how you define 'useful' right?The BBC is the UK's state TV broadcaster, and its no secret that it broadcasts the UK's message/political viewpoints etc.
RT is Russia's equivalent. (Agree or disagree on that - I'm not going to argue here).
But would you say that RT is on one side of the balance and the BBC is on the other? Or would you say that BBC and RT are giving out the same 'message'? (ie. same side of the balance)
The proxy war taking place in the Ukraine has echoes of the old cold war, I think this has been discussed many times. East vs West etc. etc.
Surely I can make a 'balance' comparison between the two, as each media outlet has its own agenda to push forward.
I watch a lot of the news from various different channels and I notice the 'avoidance' and 'put down' tactics used by the USA media office statements and at the same time I notice the politics involved and the choice of stories run by each media outlet. Russia's political office press releases also only concentrate on certain stories and at the same time counter the USA's press releases etc. etc.
Its not hard to see the agendas being played out with the wide access we now have to media channels through freeview/Sky and the internet (not suggesting it was hard for you in particular - just a generalized use of the phrase).
I think the major difference between organisation like the BBC and RT is the quality of the investigative journalism and the influence the state has over it's content.
I don't recall the BBC fabricating evidence to support a specific viewpoint as is frequent on Russian state TV.
The vast majority of the worlds media is safe to conduct investigative journalism throughout Ukraine, yet in the Russian/separatist regions, only media which tows the line is allowed, under threat of detention, physical violence or even death.
From that I find it relatively easy to draw a conclusion on which side can claim to be acting in the best interests of the Ukrainian people, and which "side" of the story is likely to be a more accurate representation.
I don't recall the BBC fabricating evidence to support a specific viewpoint as is frequent on Russian state TV.
The vast majority of the worlds media is safe to conduct investigative journalism throughout Ukraine, yet in the Russian/separatist regions, only media which tows the line is allowed, under threat of detention, physical violence or even death.
From that I find it relatively easy to draw a conclusion on which side can claim to be acting in the best interests of the Ukrainian people, and which "side" of the story is likely to be a more accurate representation.
I don't think even rt are welcome there, certainly they had 3 journalists taken hostage and a cameraman killed out there by the separatists!
I think if you are aware of the amount of s
t rt produce it can be fun to watch but in no way can it actually provide useful news!
Iirc their stated aim is to attract the 18-35 group in America and provide them 'the other side of the story' which is why they can come across as alternative yet believable to a lot of people, especially with people like max keiser, larry king etc to provide a semblance of legitimacy, although having George Galloway doesn't help having last been seen on Iran's pr channel press tv (another amusing channel!) until they lost their licence for non payment of fees!
Eta. The vice news series on YouTube following the Ukraine crisis has been quite interesting to watch to see how it is on the ground although they've cut back a lot recently, at one point they were coming out every day, then every 3rd working day, now it's about 1 every 2 weeks.
I think if you are aware of the amount of s
t rt produce it can be fun to watch but in no way can it actually provide useful news!Iirc their stated aim is to attract the 18-35 group in America and provide them 'the other side of the story' which is why they can come across as alternative yet believable to a lot of people, especially with people like max keiser, larry king etc to provide a semblance of legitimacy, although having George Galloway doesn't help having last been seen on Iran's pr channel press tv (another amusing channel!) until they lost their licence for non payment of fees!
Eta. The vice news series on YouTube following the Ukraine crisis has been quite interesting to watch to see how it is on the ground although they've cut back a lot recently, at one point they were coming out every day, then every 3rd working day, now it's about 1 every 2 weeks.
Edited by Silent1 on Wednesday 9th July 15:52
skyrover said:
The scary part is that even with utterly dumb st like is, people are zombified enough to swallow it.http://www.examiner.com/list/russia-s-media-caught...
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