Malaysia Airlines Plane "Loses Contact"

Malaysia Airlines Plane "Loses Contact"

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thehawk

9,335 posts

207 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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Testaburger said:
It was dark.

There are tens of thousands of fishing vessels in that area, operating specifically at night. I believe many of them are not equipped with radios however, so it may take a while for any witnesses to contact authorities.
I fly in the region every 2 weeks, normally Singapore to Bangkok - flew there last night 2 hours prior to this incident and the weather was perfect. Always amazes me the number of fishing boats there, how you can cross the Gulf of Thailand and rarely be out of sight of a fishing boat light.

Testaburger

3,682 posts

198 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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thehawk said:
I fly in the region every 2 weeks, normally Singapore to Bangkok - flew there last night 2 hours prior to this incident and the weather was perfect. Always amazes me the number of fishing boats there, how you can cross the Gulf of Thailand and rarely be out of sight of a fishing boat light.
You're right, it's probably quite likely something was seen from the surface, given the weather, even on a first quarter moon night. Not sure how long it would take for such news to filter back to land, though.

Eric Mc

121,886 posts

265 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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Testaburger said:
It was dark.

There are tens of thousands of fishing vessels in that area, operating specifically at night. I believe many of them are not equipped with radios however, so it may take a while for any witnesses to contact authorities.
Shades of Air France 447?

So many of these more "modern" accidents seem to happen over the ocean, at night.

I would be looking at flight control systems and software on this one.

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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What's the political situation in Malaysia like these days?

i.e anyone with sufficient motivation to bomb the aircraft?

Edited by skyrover on Saturday 8th March 10:22

Testaburger

3,682 posts

198 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
Shades of Air France 447?

So many of these more "modern" accidents seem to happen over the ocean, at night.

I would be looking at flight control systems and software on this one.
My understanding, though, was that it was a clear, calm night.

Given the apparent lack of distress calls from them, if I were to speculate, I'd be looking at a total electrical failure (nigh-on impossible in a B777, though the aircraft would still be controllable) or some nature of catastrophic in-flight breakup. My money is on the latter.

TeamD

4,913 posts

232 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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Testaburger said:
TeamD

You're right. You're the expert.

Be aware that the majority of he travelling populace disagrees with you.

It appears that it is you that is coming across as an opinionated tosser.
It wasn't me that started calling people idiots. And if my (not insubstantial) experience of flying with Malaysian has lead me to rate them as crap then I am entitled to my opinion. That said, Eric is correct, whether or not we agree or disagree on the quality of the airline, it is still a terrible thing to have happened and I am sure that there are many people affected by this tragedy. My statement was not intended to belittle their loss...although I suspect that it has been (deliberately?) misinterpreted as such.

I see that the BBC are still reporting the "vanished/no clue" story at the moment but they do seem to be a slow about things these days. In answer to Erics question, since the reported time of loss was around 02:40 Saturday Local then "yes" it would have been dark at the time but they should have had a good bit of daylight for search operations by now as it's now gone 16:00 KL time.

ETA: Reuters: "Plane still missing"

Edited by TeamD on Saturday 8th March 08:28

anonymous-user

54 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
quotequote all
Testaburger said:
Eric Mc said:
Shades of Air France 447?

So many of these more "modern" accidents seem to happen over the ocean, at night.

I would be looking at flight control systems and software on this one.
My understanding, though, was that it was a clear, calm night.

Given the apparent lack of distress calls from them, if I were to speculate, I'd be looking at a total electrical failure (nigh-on impossible in a B777, though the aircraft would still be controllable) or some nature of catastrophic in-flight breakup. My money is on the latter.
You guys should definitely contact Boeing, that kind of information will be gold dust to them!

Testaburger

3,682 posts

198 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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el stovey said:
You guys should definitely contact Boeing, that kind of information will be gold dust to them!
Ho ho ho. Sorry to upset your sensibilities.

Just like everyone else, we're free to speculate based on what information is known.

This is a discussion forum. Feel free not to take part.

Juanco20

3,214 posts

193 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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Spent a bit of time on boats in the Gulf of Thailand, although a little bit more West of Phu Quoc, but someone will definitely have seen this happen. There are hundreds out there every night

nigelpugh7

6,024 posts

190 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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Just seen David Learmount, the Sky News Aviation expert commenting on this.

He raised an interesting point in regard to general states of Pilots Awareness and circadian rhythms, in other words the body expecting to be asleep during the hours of midnight and 6 am and the effect of that cycle on people, such as these pilots who fly during the same hours.

He also cited that the Air France Airbus crash, could have been due to the same conditions, which I found both interesting and alarming.

Finally he also mentioned that in the case of the Malaysia air flight, to simply loose contact, with no mayday call, or other radio communication, would most likely indicate the potential of a bomb being the cause, because as he had previously stated modern aircraft of this type would be extremely unlikely to fall out of the sky from a sudden catastrophic failure.

Sadly it does now seem that this flight is down with all souls lost,so RIP to all of those poor people.

Le TVR

3,092 posts

251 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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MitchT

15,831 posts

209 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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The absence of a distress call does make it look like there was some kind of catastrophic disintegration, possibly caused by a bomb. Some sources are reporting that the a/c descended by 700ft during the minute before contact was lost. Again, if it had been bombed it could be that the piece of wreckage containing the component which was communicating flight data was now in a descent trajectory of, initially, -700fpm. Obviously this would become steeper as the forward momentum bled-off. If said component failed after the first minute due to damage and its now being exposed to the kind of hostile conditions it would experience at that altitude and speed then that explains why contact was lost one minute after the initial descent of 700ft commenced. All speculation, I accept, so please restrain those flamethrowers!

It's also maybe worth noting that this a/c lost a wing tip in a ground collision with an A340 in China back on 9 August 2012.

ETA: I was still typing this when Le TVR posted.

Edited by MitchT on Saturday 8th March 10:05

Mojocvh

16,837 posts

262 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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OT

BA wrote off their Johannesburg 747, mind you it did the job properly.....

edited on/off/on/off

Edited by Mojocvh on Saturday 8th March 18:40

Munter

31,319 posts

241 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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MitchT said:
it could be that the piece of wreckage containing the component which was communicating flight data was now in a descent trajectory of, initially, -700fpm. Obviously this would become steeper as the forward momentum bled-off.
Vertical acceleration is not affected by horizontal speed. Unless it has a wing attached to it. But it doesn't sound like that's what you were thinking.

The traditional explanation is you fire a perfectly horizontal gun with one hand, and drop a bullet from the other at the same height and time. Both will hit the ground at the same time.

MitchT

15,831 posts

209 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
quotequote all
Munter said:
Vertical acceleration is not affected by horizontal speed. Unless it has a wing attached to it. But it doesn't sound like that's what you were thinking.

The traditional explanation is you fire a perfectly horizontal gun with one hand, and drop a bullet from the other at the same height and time. Both will hit the ground at the same time.
What I mean is that if an/ac disintegrates in mid air the wreckage will continue to travel forwards initially while gradually losing altitude. As forward momentum decreases the rate of descent increases. What's notable here is that only the initial -700fpm descent was captured, for whatever reason, and no distress call preceded it.

Chilli

17,318 posts

236 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
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Munter said:
Vertical acceleration is not affected by horizontal speed. Unless it has a wing attached to it. But it doesn't sound like that's what you were thinking.

The traditional explanation is you fire a perfectly horizontal gun with one hand, and drop a bullet from the other at the same height and time. Both will hit the ground at the same time.
Doesn't that depend on the shape of the object? Surely if the object was shaped like a wing it would have lift properties?

I just hope they find it bobbing around on the sea surface with everyone on the wings....doubt it though.

Actually, wouldn't the FDRs be "pinging" away?

Otispunkmeyer

12,578 posts

155 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
quotequote all
Munter said:
Vertical acceleration is not affected by horizontal speed. Unless it has a wing attached to it. But it doesn't sound like that's what you were thinking.The traditional explanation is you fire a perfectly horizontal gun with one hand, and drop a bullet from the other at the same height and time. Both will hit the ground at the same time.
just watched that mythbusters ep last night. Its one of those things that is simple in paper but when you see it, you cant help but smile over its coolness.

Chilli

17,318 posts

236 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
quotequote all
Munter said:
Vertical acceleration is not affected by horizontal speed. Unless it has a wing attached to it. But it doesn't sound like that's what you were thinking.

The traditional explanation is you fire a perfectly horizontal gun with one hand, and drop a bullet from the other at the same height and time. Both will hit the ground at the same time.
Doesn't that depend on the shape of the object? Surely if the object was shaped like a wing it would have lift properties?

I just hope they find it bobbing around on the sea surface with everyone on the wings....doubt it though.

Actually, wouldn't the FDRs be "pinging" away?

MarkRSi

5,782 posts

218 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
quotequote all
Mojocvh said:
OT

BA wrote their Johannesburg 747, mind you it did the job properly.....
Yep hehe




This situation on the other hand... frown

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Saturday 8th March 2014
quotequote all
kapiteinlangzaam said:
They should be, but this will quite quickly turn in to an AF447 situation I fear frown

Anybody know the approx. see bed depth around there?
Here's a quick bathymetric map of the area