Malaysia Airlines Plane "Loses Contact"
Discussion
tenpenceshort said:
Welshbeef said:
That mountain range is vast and I'd say its much more probable than
Landing on the ocean then slowly sinking
Exceeding escape velocity to get into orbit
Landing on an island and is hidden
Hitting water from 30,000 feet would be like hitting concrete. Finding bits of plane bigger than a side plate would be the issue.Landing on the ocean then slowly sinking
Exceeding escape velocity to get into orbit
Landing on an island and is hidden
-Z- said:
tenpenceshort said:
Welshbeef said:
That mountain range is vast and I'd say its much more probable than
Landing on the ocean then slowly sinking
Exceeding escape velocity to get into orbit
Landing on an island and is hidden
Hitting water from 30,000 feet would be like hitting concrete. Finding bits of plane bigger than a side plate would be the issue.Landing on the ocean then slowly sinking
Exceeding escape velocity to get into orbit
Landing on an island and is hidden
The issue with MH370 isn't so much the size of any debris, but the extremely remote nature of the suspected crash site. It is so far from any inhabited coast that it is barely within range of any aircraft to do more than get there, have a quick look, and head back again. A ship could take a week to get there. The seas are mountainous, the Empire State Building could be bobbing about on a wave and you'd be hard pressed to spot it. If debris is washed up it is likely to be on the shores of one of the barren, uninhabited and uninhabitable islands which lies between there and the South Pole. If you wanted somewhere to ditch a plane in the hope it would never be found, that is where you would fly to. It's not in any shipping lanes - the best bet is that eventually some of it drifts far enough to reach populated areas. But I won't be surprised if it never does.
TheSnitch said:
The issue with MH370 isn't so much the size of any debris, but the extremely remote nature of the suspected crash site. It is so far from any inhabited coast that it is barely within range of any aircraft to do more than get there, have a quick look, and head back again. A ship could take a week to get there. The seas are mountainous, the Empire State Building could be bobbing about on a wave and you'd be hard pressed to spot it. If debris is washed up it is likely to be on the shores of one of the barren, uninhabited and uninhabitable islands which lies between there and the South Pole. If you wanted somewhere to ditch a plane in the hope it would never be found, that is where you would fly to. It's not in any shipping lanes - the best bet is that eventually some of it drifts far enough to reach populated areas. But I won't be surprised if it never does.
I appreciate the reasoning. I still personally believe in the fire/anoxia explanation imperfect though it is. However there are many other suggestions some more plausible than others. I doubt if the plane will remain missing for a very long time but it could do so. If you were choosing the best place to suggest as a crash site likely to remain undiscovered the southern Indian ocean would probably be a very good bet. Which makes me wonder what really did happen. Time will tell I think. There are already enough theories on the causes of what is a most tragic accident.-Z- said:
This pic of AF447 says big pieces would still be possible
From memory AF447 was still in forward flight, albeit descending. An extreme example of the difference this makes would be the Hudson River landing, where the plane was landed intact.At the opposite end, imagine the plane hitting the water vertically from an uncontrolled 30,000ft drop.
It's like driving your car and scraping along a concrete reservation, versus crashing into it head on. The damage from the first is incomparable to that in the second.
Vaud said:
Did you hear back from the investigators after your detailed and considered "report"?
yupp 
btw there are more and more people on duncansteel.com that get the crash in vicinity of CI as a result of BFO&BTO calculationsfor example
"Dennis Workman
2014/07/27 at 15:56
Thx Henrik. I had not even considered that. I’ve been in a “BFO funk” of late, and your insight only adds to it.
While I am very supportive of the modelers here, the reality is that the only data we have that is real are a handful of BTO and BFO values. We don’t know how fast the plane was flying. We don’t know if the autopilot was used or what mode it might have been in. We don’t know if what Kate saw was MH370.
I do have confidence in the BTO data, but not much confidence in the usefulness of the BFO data. Is it better than nothing? Sure.
I spent a couple of days last week developing a BFO series expansion, simply starting with an equation that included a minimalist set of variables that had a major effect on BFO, and solving for the constants by using data before ADS-B was lost. It resulted in the plane coming down in the vicinity of Christmas Island!
Thanks again,
Dennis"
then this one from Bryan C.
"Comparisions indicate that my solution using average Vsp values is yielding reasonable results. To calculate values using the actual Vsp value at time t involves solving 10 equations with 10 unknowns. The good news is that the solution would reduce to a quadratic equation. It is interesting that the solution for the equations based on distance traveled yields 2 roots with different latitudes. The solution to the equations based on velocities yields 2 roots with different longitudes. 1 to the west of the satellite and 1 to the east, effectively resulting in 1 solution. As a check, I plugged in Ra and Rs values for the northern and southern paths, it duplicates those paths.
Imagine my shock after I got this debugged (I keep reversing signs in my vector math) and I get a result that indicates the plane took a large circular path to the south heading eventually back to KLIA. I almost fell off my chair. I was not expecting this. I have to admit that I have not been that excited about anything in a long time, hence my need to hurriedly share this with someone."
and several others...
it doesn't have to be cover-up, try reading official report and see for yourself they base probabilities on assumptions and some values that are everything but reliable, they might come out right or not after all, and they never state they are sure the plane is in that 60.000 square km zone
btw it seems they have also covered malaysian authorities for other reasons
https://wikileaks.org/aus-suppression-order/
btw it seems they have also covered malaysian authorities for other reasons
https://wikileaks.org/aus-suppression-order/
News release about how the sonar mapping is going. Mapping is a prelude to an actual search to avoid crashing the ROV into a seamount etc.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29378953
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29378953
MartG said:
News release about how the sonar mapping is going. Mapping is a prelude to an actual search to avoid crashing the ROV into a seamount etc.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29378953
Well, that got that bit right http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29378953
The operation to find flight MH370 is the most complex search in history. They may find clues within months. Or they may never find the aircraft.
Vipers said:
MartG said:
News release about how the sonar mapping is going. Mapping is a prelude to an actual search to avoid crashing the ROV into a seamount etc.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29378953
Well, that got that bit right http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29378953
The operation to find flight MH370 is the most complex search in history. They may find clues within months. Or they may never find the aircraft.
Without definite proven physical evidenced of the plane being in the area expected by data analysis this seems likely to remain a complete mystery. Tragedy for the occupants of the plane and their families and indeed for Malaysian Airlines. As things stand a wholly unexplained event.
Vipers said:
I vote that no announcements from the Malaysian authorities can be believed. They'll go to any lengths to save face / cover up their incompetence. The wreckage of the plane is in the jungle somewhere in Malaysia / Thailand.
Just as it always has been.
lamboman100 said:
^ It was def deliberate. The plane bobbed and weaved and redirected all over the place. Can only be explained by human intervention. The only remaining question is "who" (pilot(s)) and "why" (suicide, terror or mis-theft likeliest).
You are right. The manoeuvring was deliberate. But you are missing the most likely option of a failure in the aircraft and resulting hypoxia from your why options.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff