UK politics if Scotland votes Yes

[PRTVR]

Edinburger said:

While interesting, isn't most of this thread off topic?

What's the impact to UK politics of Scotland votes Yes? So for starters: a significantly reduced voice at EU, NATO, etc. (bearing in mind the UK has lost a third of her land mass and 10% of her population).

Thoughts?

The loss of the land mass is irrelevant, very few people live in most of it, it has very little value,except for scenic value, people do not want to live in most of it, you think 10 % reduction is a problem but do not think a 90% reduction will be a problem for Scotland?

[Welshbeef]

Edinburger said:

While interesting, isn't most of this thread off topic?

What's the impact to UK politics of Scotland votes Yes? So for starters: a significantly reduced voice at EU, NATO, etc. (bearing in mind the UK has lost a third of her land mass and 10% of her population).

Thoughts?

Given our growth rate it will take 3-5 years to replace Scotland's GDP for rUK.

That's actually very interesting - however the other way round well to replace 90% of your GDP - it would be 85-100 years and that's assuming there is no negative impact following Independance.

Thoughts?

[simoid]

Welshbeef said:

Given our growth rate it will take 3-5 years to replace Scotland's GDP for rUK.

That's actually very interesting - however the other way round well to replace 90% of your GDP - it would be 85-100 years and that's assuming there is no negative impact following Independance.

Thoughts?

What?

Are you predicting GDP will accelerate after Scotland leaves, or do you mean GDP per capita?

Capital economics reckoned the risks, change and uncertainty caused by Scotland leaving the UK could lead to a 10% contraction of the remaining UK economy, incidentally.

[Welshbeef]

simoid said:

What?

Are you predicting GDP will accelerate after Scotland leaves, or do you mean GDP per capita?

Capital economics reckoned the risks, change and uncertainty caused by Scotland leaving the UK could lead to a 10% contraction of the remaining UK economy, incidentally.

What I mean is UK will see a slice of its GDP vanish (Scotland leaving and let's say its 10%) - given our growth rate forecasted we will recoup the 10% within 3-5 years (though clearly that would mean rUK stays static). But still its a very short timeframe

[McWigglebum4th]

Siscar said:

I see it still matters to you that the UK suffers as a result. Just be reassured, it's OK, we'd be fine. Land mass is no great loss and less than 10% of population, do you really think we'd notice?

That is assuming everyone stays in Scotland

Which is unlikely

Though quite a few will move north into workers paradise

So it will probably even out


So you will swap me for a unemployed chav

And being scottish i have the McForce and you can do nothing about it

[Johnnytheboy]

pcvdriver said:

Johnnytheboy said:

So who do right wing Scots vote for?

Not UKIP it would appear, certainly going on the strength of evidence regarding deposit retention.

This is what I find out. A lot of Scots are conservative (in the non-party sense) as far as I can judge the national character, so some of them must be broadly right wing. Who do they vote for?

[///ajd]

Edinburger said:

While interesting, isn't most of this thread off topic?

What's the impact to UK politics of Scotland votes Yes? So for starters: a significantly reduced voice at EU, NATO, etc. (bearing in mind the UK has lost a third of her land mass and 10% of her population).

Thoughts?

Sounds like you are looking forward to the nasty english being punished while you sail away to riches with the oil.

I thought you guys were trying to say you weren't selfish and racist?

Thoughts!?

[cardigankid]

First off I think it is highly likely that the vote will go with independence irrespective of any argument which is put forward either way. I don't believe this is about logic. It just seems to be taking the polls a while to catch up.

This should take Labour down to a bit part and hand Conservative leadership to the right wing of the party, which should again reduce UKIP to an extreme. The political divide then will not be between left and right so much as north and south, and in or out of the EU. Therefore there will be a resurgence of the Liberal Democrats as the party of opposition. However, this will take place in the context of a nation which must finally abandon any notion of being a significant player on the world stage. If that means a reduction in arms spending, I see that as a good thing.

However the oil issue pans out, and that looks like trouble, in Scotland there will be a vote buying contest between Labour and whatever the SNP turn into once independence is a fact, and there will be a keenness to divert attention away from internal problems by creating trouble with rUK. The initial drive will be to create a socialist paradise, which is guaranteed to fail, leading to more extreme conditions. Scotland lacks England's stability. Scotland will become a constant pain in England's arse, much as it was up to Tudor times. Scotland is not in the EU so there is no free movement in England never mind the rest of Europe. Do you imagine the no voters will docilely accept the result. They will form a resistance, albeit initially non-violent, or migrate south. How is England going to stop that? How is anyone going to define who is Scottish and who is English?

All just imho of course.

[ninja-lewis]

Johnnytheboy said:

This is what I find out. A lot of Scots are conservative (in the non-party sense) as far as I can judge the national character, so some of them must be broadly right wing. Who do they vote for?

If you look at the former heartlands of the Scottish Unionist Party (the only party that has ever won a majority of the vote in a general election in Scotland), many of them have become Liberal Democrat and more recently SNP (at a grassroots level the SNP are a pretty broad church who support independence, just not necessarily for the same reasons!)

The Lib Dems have fairly strong links with traditional 'conservative' elements in Scotland dating back to the days of the old Liberal Party. At various points there were groups that split from the liberals and stood either as Liberal Unionists or National Liberals and aligning more with the Tories. The Lib Dems traditionally did well (and have still managed to hold onto a disproportionate number of seats since 2010) by cultivating a very strong local MP image. It's much easier for an incumbent MP on expenses to visit constituents across some of the vast constituencies in the North compared to challengers who may typically only be well known on their own island.

Last but least a not insignificant proportion simply don't vote for anyone anymore.

[BlackLabel]

In the unlikely event the 'yes' vote succeeds it will be interesting to see what happens to a potential Ed Miliband government if it governs with a slim majority. We could potentially have another general election soon after the Scottish referendum vote.

[cardigankid]

His situation would be totally untenable, another reason why people would be disinclined to vote for him, apart from the fact that most sentient creatures in the UK still remember the last Labour Government and how fiscally incompetent they were. A Yes vote is far from unlikely - anyone you speak to in Glasgow is for it, me excepted. I see that as ending in a bilateral Conservative / Lib dem future in England.

[Derek Smith]

cardigankid said:

This should take Labour down to a bit part and hand Conservative leadership to the right wing of the party, which should again reduce UKIP to an extreme. The political divide then will not be between left and right so much as north and south, and in or out of the EU. Therefore there will be a resurgence of the Liberal Democrats as the party of opposition. However, this will take place in the context of a nation which must finally abandon any notion of being a significant player on the world stage. If that means a reduction in arms spending, I see that as a good thing.

I disagree, purely because it ignores history.

I think it likely, as you seem to suggest, that the tories will, under pressure from their nutty sector, move to the right. Labour, on the other hand, will have the choice of becoming a minority party by keeping their status quo or, as they did under Blair, move to the centre ground. I reckon they will opt for the latter as that will be the only option for power, and that trumps principles for most.

The disenfranchisement of the left, I think, will give labour a bit of a bonus. If the tories move to the right then there will be significant infighting. Nothing puts the electorate off more than disunity. It cost Major and cost us Blair. If labour appears unified then the floating voter - the one that matters - might consider then worth a go.

Further, some, although by no means all, of the Scottish labour MPs are not too tightly wrapped when it comes to their understanding of the economy. With them gone, pressure is relieved from Milliband's replacement.

However, there is the joker (in more ways than one) of the UKIP. A right moving tory party might well be challenged by the UKIP and this could lead to confusion. I'm not so sure, but if PH is anything to go by, some think a vote for them is in some way a protest.

If labour get in next election and the economy continues to expand then, again as history shows us, they will be the beneficiaries.

I wouldn't bet on it but in politics, simple adding and subtraction is rarely accurate.

As for Scottish politics, OT I know, but others have commented on it, the assumption is that it will be quite left wing. I doubt if it will be socialist though, as some have suggested, but there might be a movement to make it more left than the national labour party is at present.

If this happens then it is possible that a more centrist party might evolve, especially if the first labour government of Scotland drops a few. As it possibly will as there is no sensible option other than restrictions across the board at least initially. These are unlikely given the promises of the SNP.

"Welcome to the brave new world of massive increases in taxes" is hardly the motto of a majority winning party in elections.

Other parties will then put all the blame on labour and the party might well dissolve.

So I reckon Indescot will end up a little left of centre but not by any means socialist in the medium term.

It is not impossible for the country to dissolve into a right financial mess. In that case, extremism is possible and the terms far right and far left have no real meaning as they are both the same in effect. So it is possible that England will end up with an unstable country on its borders. Now that would be interesting, in the sense of may you live in interesting times.

[anonymous-user]

Johnnytheboy said:

This is what I find out. A lot of Scots are conservative (in the non-party sense) as far as I can judge the national character, so some of them must be broadly right wing. Who do they vote for?

FPTP Seat count is, as ever, misleading. Surprisingly almost as many vote Tory as LibDem and SNP...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/result...

Will Scots be allowed to remain in EU countries like England while their work visa applications are processed?

[Edinburger]

BlackLabel said:

In the unlikely event the 'yes' vote succeeds it will be interesting to see what happens to a potential Ed Miliband government if it governs with a slim majority. We could potentially have another general election soon after the Scottish referendum vote.

We probably will, especially if the SNP breaks up.

[McWigglebum4th]

Edinburger said:

BlackLabel said:

In the unlikely event the 'yes' vote succeeds it will be interesting to see what happens to a potential Ed Miliband government if it governs with a slim majority. We could potentially have another general election soon after the Scottish referendum vote.

We probably will, especially if the SNP breaks up.

Not according to the SNP

we are scheduled to have our FRRRRRREEEEeeeedddooommmmMMMMM and then 3 months later a election

But by then the damage will of been done as we will be outside the EU and have no currency.

[Funk]

McWigglebum4th said:

Edinburger said:

BlackLabel said:

In the unlikely event the 'yes' vote succeeds it will be interesting to see what happens to a potential Ed Miliband government if it governs with a slim majority. We could potentially have another general election soon after the Scottish referendum vote.

We probably will, especially if the SNP breaks up.

Not according to the SNP

we are scheduled to have our FRRRRRREEEEeeeedddooommmmMMMMM and then 3 months later a election

But by then the damage will of been done as we will be outside the EU and have no currency.

I fear you are on the money there.

On the plus side, if Scotland leaves we might finally be able to ensure Labour never return to power when all the Scottish Labour MPs are booted out of Westminster and sent home.

[Rick_1138]

Funk said:

I fear you are on the money there.

On the plus side, if Scotland leaves we might finally be able to ensure Labour never return to power when all the Scottish Labour MPs are booted out of Westminster and sent home.

I'm totally against independence, so don't take this as pro Yes.

Apparently the belief that Scotland's voting habits have meant that the UK has had Labour for years is actually not true, if you take out the Scottish votes on every election since 1950 I believe, the results would have been the same every time except for the current administration.

My GF is from Formby\Liverpool, and she says that she doesn't like independence because it will mean England has tory govt's for evermore, and her dad is the same. However Due to them being scousers, any mention of Tory or (god forbid Thatcher), usually results in a gripe.

As they are all teachers in her family (bar the GF) and lefties, I just don't mention news or politics when I see them, being a previous Tory voter myself.

Though no idea what I am voting for at the next GE.

[simoid]

Rick_1138 said:

Apparently the belief that Scotland's voting habits have meant that the UK has had Labour for years is actually not true, if you take out the Scottish votes on every election since 1950 I believe, the results would have been the same every time except for the current administration.

I think on quite a few occasions, Scottish votes meant a majority where there would otherwise have been a minority. But yes, same party "winning" the election most of the time.

[Funk]

Rick_1138 said:

Funk said:

I fear you are on the money there.

On the plus side, if Scotland leaves we might finally be able to ensure Labour never return to power when all the Scottish Labour MPs are booted out of Westminster and sent home.

I'm totally against independence, so don't take this as pro Yes.

Apparently the belief that Scotland's voting habits have meant that the UK has had Labour for years is actually not true, if you take out the Scottish votes on every election since 1950 I believe, the results would have been the same every time except for the current administration.

My GF is from Formby\Liverpool, and she says that she doesn't like independence because it will mean England has tory govt's for evermore, and her dad is the same. However Due to them being scousers, any mention of Tory or (god forbid Thatcher), usually results in a gripe.

As they are all teachers in her family (bar the GF) and lefties, I just don't mention news or politics when I see them, being a previous Tory voter myself.

Though no idea what I am voting for at the next GE.

Unfortunately even in the event of a Yes vote, Scotland will still have a say in the next 5 years of UK government despite being scheduled to leave in 2016.

As I understand it, let's say Labour win the 2015 election with 330 seats giving them a majority of 10 (there are 650 seats in the HoC - why this many are needed is not known - Germany has 80m inhabitants and 600 MPs, Japan has 470 MPs representing 127m people, Russia has 144m people and 470 MPs, America with 300m people has 430 congressmen and women - anyway, that aside..). They have 40 MPs in Scotland. After the break-up of the UK, the HoC would be reduced to 590 or so MPs. Labour would be reduced to 290 MPs - not enough for a majority. Without the Scottish MPs, Labour would not be able to form a government and would be forced to look at a Coalition of some description (the LibDems would probably jump at this as the chances of them ever getting a sniff at power again is non-existent).

Even if Labour win in 2015, if Scotland subsequently goes I think there'll be another general election fairly soon after a Scoxit (I just invented that) from the UK.

I may be wrong, so if I am please take the piss.

[Los Endos]

The landscape of British Politics will be radically changed for generations, if the Scots decide to leave, I suspect the Conservatives will hold majorities in the HoC's for a long time, however with such a shift perhaps we may see splintering of the right in the rUK with further moves towards UKIP.
Maybe even a UKIP / Tory Goverment in our lifetime ?
One thing I can't ever see happening is the galvanising of the left, they will remain The Peoples Front of Judah ! Perhaps Liverpool could join Scotland in 'Putin does Crimea' stylee ?