UK politics if Scotland votes Yes
Discussion
Los Endos said:
The landscape of British Politics will be radically changed for generations, if the Scots decide to leave, I suspect the Conservatives will hold majorities in the HoC's for a long time, KIP.
Why? Which elections have the Conservatives lost which they would have won if it were not for labour voters from north of the boarder?Perhaps I got this wrong but I believe that the loss of of the Scottish MPs would favour the Conservatives, therefore possibly leading to long term Conservative Govt, also the dynamics of the current political landscape must change in the event of such a massive change.
I also don't think you can retrospectively redraw past election results by simply adding and subtracting the numbers of the Scots MP's to project new outcomes because it doesn't take account of any Scottish issues that abound and the tactical voting of the time. Although it fair to say the loss of one Tory MP is less likely to impact the Conservatives ?
So in answer to your question which election would the Conservatives would have won, I would say the next one ( if the Scots pull out )
I also don't think you can retrospectively redraw past election results by simply adding and subtracting the numbers of the Scots MP's to project new outcomes because it doesn't take account of any Scottish issues that abound and the tactical voting of the time. Although it fair to say the loss of one Tory MP is less likely to impact the Conservatives ?
So in answer to your question which election would the Conservatives would have won, I would say the next one ( if the Scots pull out )
Edited by Los Endos on Friday 25th April 19:59
Los Endos said:
Perhaps I got this wrong but I believe that the loss of of the Scottish MPs would favour the Conservatives...
It would be better for the Tories of course but the electoral system still wouldn't favour them, it's still heavily weighted in Labours favour. More important than Scotland; the Tory's need a majority to redraw the electoral boundaries.2005 general election results for england;
Labour 286 seats 8,043,461 votes
Con 194 seats 8,116,005 votes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/vote2005/html/eng...
Rather than having to form a coalition with the Lib Dems, David Cameron would have had a majority of 21 seats in the Commons, according to the BBC's Political Research Unit.
BBC News Page.
Of course I am being selective because the article says all the other previous elections there would get no overall change
BBC News Page.
Of course I am being selective because the article says all the other previous elections there would get no overall change
Los Endos said:
Perhaps I got this wrong but I believe that the loss of of the Scottish MPs would favour the Conservatives, therefore possibly leading to long term Conservative Govt, also the dynamics of the current political landscape must change in the event of such a massive change.
I also don't think you can retrospectively redraw past election results by simply adding and subtracting the numbers of the Scots MP's to project new outcomes because it doesn't take account of any Scottish issues that abound and the tactical voting of the time. Although it fair to say the loss of one Tory MP is less likely to impact the Conservatives ?
So in answer to your question which election would the Conservatives would have won, I would say the next one ( if the Scots pull out )
The adage that politics is the art of the possible is very true. The chat about the manifesto is not what they believe in but what will get them elected. Already we have seen Cameron change some policies given what appears to be the move to the UKIP from the tory right. This is not him suddenly believing in these new policies, but believing that they might cut the vote for the UKIP.I also don't think you can retrospectively redraw past election results by simply adding and subtracting the numbers of the Scots MP's to project new outcomes because it doesn't take account of any Scottish issues that abound and the tactical voting of the time. Although it fair to say the loss of one Tory MP is less likely to impact the Conservatives ?
So in answer to your question which election would the Conservatives would have won, I would say the next one ( if the Scots pull out )
Edited by Los Endos on Friday 25th April 19:59
What will happen is that, probably, labour will move to the centre ground. If it doesn't then the libdems will see their vote increase as they will change their beliefs to suit the new situation.
The worst thing for the tories will be a labour victory at the next election and a boost in the world and national economy. Labour will reap the benefit of this and voters are reluctant to change a party when things are going well.
My bet, and I would bet, is that the tory party will suffer internecine battles for supremacy. It has happened in the past. It cost labour the election that put Thatcher in and it cost Major when Blair got in.
The word union in the title of the tory party title is false. It is hardly a union. If the nutty right sense a chance to push their right-wing agenda then there will be a public falling out.
If the Union does end then so does the status quo in this country's politics.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff