UKIP - The Future - Volume 2
Discussion
The more thought I've given this the more impressed I am with Carswell.
The example he's setting with a defection where he seeks new endorsement from the public is something that should be expected but isn't.
It is also the direct opposite of the politics that leads to people not voting on principle, but on the basis of vote blue or you'll get evil red. UKIP are asking people to support them knowing they have minimal chance of becoming the governing party, but unless voters act on principle there will be little change.
Carswell taking an honourable stand is a great example of embracing risk to get results.
The example he's setting with a defection where he seeks new endorsement from the public is something that should be expected but isn't.
It is also the direct opposite of the politics that leads to people not voting on principle, but on the basis of vote blue or you'll get evil red. UKIP are asking people to support them knowing they have minimal chance of becoming the governing party, but unless voters act on principle there will be little change.
Carswell taking an honourable stand is a great example of embracing risk to get results.
Quote from BBC
Tendring District Council's Labour leader, Ivan Henderson
"He's seen the vote increasing for UKIP, seen the possibility he could lose his seat and panicked. Douglas has always been a maverick in terms of his party but this is an opportunistic move because he's seen it slipping away from him.
What were the chances of him losing as an Tory candidate at the next election in his current seat?
Tendring District Council's Labour leader, Ivan Henderson
"He's seen the vote increasing for UKIP, seen the possibility he could lose his seat and panicked. Douglas has always been a maverick in terms of his party but this is an opportunistic move because he's seen it slipping away from him.
What were the chances of him losing as an Tory candidate at the next election in his current seat?
Tendring District Council Labour leader Ivan Henderson said:
He's seen the vote increasing for UKIP, seen the possibility he could lose his seat and panicked. Douglas has always been a maverick in terms of his party but this is an opportunistic move because he's seen it slipping away from him.
Labour spin, it didn't take very long for the expected line to appear.Mojooo said:
Quote from BBC
What were the chances of him losing as an Tory candidate at the next election in his current seat?
Given the previous results - a lot lower than as a kipper I would say.What were the chances of him losing as an Tory candidate at the next election in his current seat?
The results last time round - nicked from the other thread on here.
Con 22,867
Lab 10,799
LD 5,577
BNP 1975
Mojooo said:
Quote from BBC
Tendring District Council's Labour leader, Ivan Henderson
"He's seen the vote increasing for UKIP, seen the possibility he could lose his seat and panicked. Douglas has always been a maverick in terms of his party but this is an opportunistic move because he's seen it slipping away from him.
What were the chances of him losing as an Tory candidate at the next election in his current seat?
UKIP didn't field a candidate last time because they liked him so much.Tendring District Council's Labour leader, Ivan Henderson
"He's seen the vote increasing for UKIP, seen the possibility he could lose his seat and panicked. Douglas has always been a maverick in terms of his party but this is an opportunistic move because he's seen it slipping away from him.
What were the chances of him losing as an Tory candidate at the next election in his current seat?
Mojooo said:
What were the chances of him losing as an Tory candidate at the next election in his current seat?
Slim.He had a 12,000 majority and won 53% of the vote last election. It would have taken a 14% swing to Labour to lose the seat. UKIP didn't contest the seat last time so would have been starting from scratch. It is not clear that they would have contested it in 2015. If UKIP contested it in 2015 then the Tory vote might have been split by enough to let in Labour. However, by jumping ship it is now 100% certain that the seat will be contested so his defection actually makes it more likely that he will lose rather than less likely.
brenflys777 said:
Douglas Carswell, has announced defection to UKIP.
First MP a tad early. Now to get one elected properly under the UKIP envelope.
A. He's not a UKIP MPFirst MP a tad early. Now to get one elected properly under the UKIP envelope.
B. He's got as much chance of being elected as a UKIP MP as I have of being the first dog in space
Wonder if he was about to be deselected by the Tories? The timing makes no sense otherwise.
longblackcoat said:
A. He's not a UKIP MP
based on what? technically, until the by-election, he islongblackcoat said:
B. He's got as much chance of being elected as a UKIP MP as I have of being the first dog in space
better start training then! (although your a few years behind Laika (1957)turbobloke said:
Labour spin, it didn't take very long for the expected line to appear.
Ivan Henderson was the Labour MP that Carswell defeated to get elected in the first place !As I have said on another thread, I am a constituent of Carswell and he commands a lot of respect here on a personal basis rather than just out of party loyalty.
McWigglebum4th said:
longblackcoat said:
B. He's got as much chance of being elected as a UKIP MP as I have of being the first dog in space
I shall put this in terms you will understandWoof Wooof Woof Woof Woof grrrr Wooof wooof grr woof <over>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCARADb9asE
Scuffers said:
longblackcoat said:
A. He's not a UKIP MP
based on what? technically, until the by-election, he islongblackcoat said:
B. He's got as much chance of being elected as a UKIP MP as I have of being the first dog in space
better start training then! (although your a few years behind Laika (1957)Guam said:
longblackcoat said:
He's taken the Chiltern Hundreds, I understand, and thus can't change his allegiance. So no, he's not a UKIP MP.
Any chance of a PO address for us to send you some Pedigree Chum for your trip? 
Edited to add: thinking about it, if you want to pay for my dogs' food, that's great. There are three of them though, and they're hungry hounds. Still, send through whatever you've got and I'll let them at it.
Edited by longblackcoat on Thursday 28th August 13:34
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