UKIP - The Future - Volume 2

[Steffan]

Esseesse said:

As nice as that poll looks, it's an online poll and I wouldn't trust it.

Aeons ago I studied Statistics as part of my first degree. As Esseesse confirms polls need to be carefully balanced statistically to have any real validity. Which an online poll clearly is unlikely to achieve. However I do think there may be a real swell of opinion against the politicians currently in power in the UK. I rather think the "lets give someone ese a chance" feeling may influence voting at the next election.

I do think that the current batch of UK Westminster politicians are a very self serving duplicitous lot. I do hope there will be a real night of long knives in the next election and power will actually shift towards serving the people. I believe that the current politicians are much too fond of their glittering lifestyles and gravy train rewards personally to be interested in what the voters actually require. Changes are needed and I am very hopeful that the next election will confirm the desire for real change in UK politics.

[FiF]

brenflys777 said:

If Carswell, Reckless or Bickley win, I don't think any of the previous surveys will matter. It will change the way UKIP are seen, it might even put a stop to the nonsense about a vote for UKIP being a vote for Labour/conservative.

As we discussed this morning, Bickley's result is the key. Currently.

Depends who else jumps / resigns / dies etc.

We ain't seen the last of this I reckon.

Btw where's Guam? On holiday?

[don4l]

FiF said:

As we discussed this morning, Bickley's result is the key. Currently.

Depends who else jumps / resigns / dies etc.

We ain't seen the last of this I reckon.

Btw where's Guam? On holiday?

We definitely haven't seen the last of this.

The atmosphere at the Conservative conference must be terrible. Today a chap wearing a T-shirt with the logo "Nigel has a point" caused some consternation. http://order-order.com/2014/09/29/cchq-gestapo-int...

The big question is "Will the next defector be from Labour or the Conservatives?" If it is a Conservative, then I reckon that it will be announced during Cameron's closing speech to conference. If it is from Labour, then we will probably have to wait a couple of weeks.

Either way, it is not a nice time to be a conservative.

Nigel is running British politics at the moment. Dave, Ed, and (whatever Clegg's first name is), are just staring into the headlights.

ETA. I've just remembered that Clegg's first name is "Nick". But who gives a st.

Edited by don4l on Monday 29th September 20:01

[steveT350C]

Hannan on the defections. As per usual, a thoughtful and well written article.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...

Check the comments though...

[sjn2004]

FiF said:

Just remember folks there are a lot of ifs and buts in the development of that ranking.
If Reckless wins no 271 that really doesn't mean all the previous 270 are at risk.

Where did that get that figure from? I thought UKIP did well in that region?

[rudecherub]

steveT350C said:

Hannan on the defections. As per usual, a thoughtful and well written article.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...

Check the comments though...

Hitchens reply to Hannan (and Rees Mogg) on why a Tory UKIP pact isn't right.

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/09/a-t...

Peter Hitchens: "In fact, such a UKIP-Tory deal would be deeply dishonest, and its only aim would be the destruction of UKIP and the crushing of the conservative revolt against the liberal Tory monolith. It is only being talked about now because the Tory party’s original more honest strategy, of abuse and smears against a declared enemy, hasn’t worked.

You might call it ‘The Hannan Delusion’, since the Euro-MP Daniel Hannan likes to voice the idea.

I have never been an admirer of Mr Hannan, and my regard for this Euro-MP has grown less over the years. The more he parades himself as an intellectual, the less he seems to be thinking.

Edited by rudecherub on Monday 29th September 20:52

[BlackLabel]

steveT350C said:

Hannan on the defections. As per usual, a thoughtful and well written article.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...

Check the comments though...

Hannan's interview with Andrew Neil yesterday was interesting - in particular the bit from 3.00 mins onwards where he talks about the PM's promised renegotiation with the EU.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29410873

[steveT350C]

rudecherub said:

steveT350C said:

Hannan on the defections. As per usual, a thoughtful and well written article.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...

Check the comments though...

Hitchins reply to Hannan (and Rees Mogg) on why a Tory UKIP pact isn't right.

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/09/a-t...

I was wondering who would pick up on this.

A very long piece with some very astute observations and the odd paragraph of drivel. On the whole though, spot on and well worth a read.

[mrpurple]

I know Rees Mogg has been courting, and having conversations with, our local UKIP branch for quite a long time now on the subject of doing a pact but I do wonder if he has half an eye on joining UKIP as well.

ETA especially when I read things like this:

Reunite the right: give Ukip jobs in a Conservative ministry
In the first of his regular contributions to telegraph.co.uk/politics, Jacob Rees-Mogg says Nigel Farage and his party must be brought back into the Conservative fold -- and given seats in Government.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservat...

Edited by mrpurple on Monday 29th September 21:00

[steveT350C]

mrpurple said:

I know Rees Mogg has been courting, and having conversations with, our local UKIP branch for quite a long time now on the subject of doing a pact but I do wonder if he has half an eye on joining UKIP as well.

UKIP did write to Rees Mogg asking him to join UKIP. He did not say 'no'.

http://www.ukipdaily.com/we-wrote-to-rees-mogg-inv...

[mrpurple]

steveT350C said:

mrpurple said:

I know Rees Mogg has been courting, and having conversations with, our local UKIP branch for quite a long time now on the subject of doing a pact but I do wonder if he has half an eye on joining UKIP as well.

UKIP did write to Rees Mogg asking him to join UKIP. He did not say 'no'.

http://www.ukipdaily.com/we-wrote-to-rees-mogg-inv...

Thanks for that Steve.......not seen it before. Richard Crowder is a lovely, genuine man that works like a trojan on behalf of the party and a big part of the reason I actually joined UKIP in the 1st place.

[SpeedMattersNot]

mrpurple said:

steveT350C said:

mrpurple said:

I know Rees Mogg has been courting, and having conversations with, our local UKIP branch for quite a long time now on the subject of doing a pact but I do wonder if he has half an eye on joining UKIP as well.

UKIP did write to Rees Mogg asking him to join UKIP. He did not say 'no'.

http://www.ukipdaily.com/we-wrote-to-rees-mogg-inv...

Thanks for that Steve.......not seen it before. Richard Crowder is a lovely, genuine man that works like a trojan on behalf of the party and a big part of the reason I actually joined UKIP in the 1st place.

How did you join UKIP?

[jogon]

http://join.ukip.org/JoinOnline.aspx?type=1

£30 and play your part on saving this nation

But apparently there is a back log as they don't allow any racist loon in the party as they do properly vet you.

[steveT350C]

mrpurple said:

steveT350C said:

mrpurple said:

I know Rees Mogg has been courting, and having conversations with, our local UKIP branch for quite a long time now on the subject of doing a pact but I do wonder if he has half an eye on joining UKIP as well.

UKIP did write to Rees Mogg asking him to join UKIP. He did not say 'no'.

http://www.ukipdaily.com/we-wrote-to-rees-mogg-inv...

Thanks for that Steve.......not seen it before. Richard Crowder is a lovely, genuine man that works like a trojan on behalf of the party and a big part of the reason I actually joined UKIP in the 1st place.

I just picked this quote from Rees Mogg in the telegrapgh article you posted above..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservat...

"Naturally, any offer to Ukip must involve our relationship with Europe. First, the referendum needs to be real"

'real'

one little word suggests a lot about what the chat is within Westminster.

[steveT350C]

SpeedMattersNot said:

mrpurple said:

steveT350C said:

mrpurple said:

I know Rees Mogg has been courting, and having conversations with, our local UKIP branch for quite a long time now on the subject of doing a pact but I do wonder if he has half an eye on joining UKIP as well.

UKIP did write to Rees Mogg asking him to join UKIP. He did not say 'no'.

http://www.ukipdaily.com/we-wrote-to-rees-mogg-inv...

Thanks for that Steve.......not seen it before. Richard Crowder is a lovely, genuine man that works like a trojan on behalf of the party and a big part of the reason I actually joined UKIP in the 1st place.

How did you join UKIP?

go to www.ukip.org

What did you expect, rolled up trouser leg and a hot crumpet between the buttocks?

We are not the Tories!

[mrpurple]

SpeedMattersNot said:

mrpurple said:

steveT350C said:

mrpurple said:

I know Rees Mogg has been courting, and having conversations with, our local UKIP branch for quite a long time now on the subject of doing a pact but I do wonder if he has half an eye on joining UKIP as well.

UKIP did write to Rees Mogg asking him to join UKIP. He did not say 'no'.

http://www.ukipdaily.com/we-wrote-to-rees-mogg-inv...

Thanks for that Steve.......not seen it before. Richard Crowder is a lovely, genuine man that works like a trojan on behalf of the party and a big part of the reason I actually joined UKIP in the 1st place.

How did you join UKIP?

Went along to a couple of meetings in a pub (where else) sat in the background and listened.

Then met a couple of senior local members.....quizzed them.....got the right answers and joined....simple as that really.

Note I was apathetic to politics and had not even voted since I 1st laid eyes on Blair, would rather poke my eyes out than vote Conservative,let alone joined a party.

[mrpurple]

steveT350C said:

go to www.ukip.org

What did you expect, rolled up trouser leg and a hot crumpet between the buttocks?

We are not the Tories!

No we use Benecol rather than butter....far better for the (are) heart.

[steveT350C]

mrpurple said:

steveT350C said:

go to www.ukip.org

What did you expect, rolled up trouser leg and a hot crumpet between the buttocks?

We are not the Tories!

No we use Benecol rather than butter....far better for the (are) heart.

Did I mention lubricant?

Benecol must be for 'Tory-lite', another new phrase I have recently heard to label and try to side-line UKIP.

Too late; we are here! mrpurple and myself, and a few others are happy and here to stay with UKIP. It's a nice party to be in.

[Esseesse]

steveT350C said:

rudecherub said:

steveT350C said:

Hannan on the defections. As per usual, a thoughtful and well written article.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...

Check the comments though...

Hitchins reply to Hannan (and Rees Mogg) on why a Tory UKIP pact isn't right.

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/09/a-t...

I was wondering who would pick up on this.

A very long piece with some very astute observations and the odd paragraph of drivel. On the whole though, spot on and well worth a read.

Hitchens is pretty much bang on wih his assessment of the Tory party, and has been consistently.

I repeatedly pointed out to Blairite Cameron lovers on here that their promised referendum is not worth anything because CMD is offering it because he sees it as an opportunity to seal our fate within the EU. We want to leave the EU, not have a referendum. A referendum is just a route to the aim of leaving the EU if it's at the right time on the right terms.

[FiF]

sjn2004 said:

FiF said:

Just remember folks there are a lot of ifs and buts in the development of that ranking.
If Reckless wins no 271 that really doesn't mean all the previous 270 are at risk.

Where did that get that figure from? I thought UKIP did well in that region?

OK to answer that properly needs several pages, but here is the very short and nasty version.

Demographics most likely to support UKIP or not identified.

Each constituency examined from census data.

Find that most constituencies where UKIP support suggested to be strong are ones where the incumbent party is defending a very big majority.

This means that UKIP has not just got to deepen support with their existing social groups but widen support to others where their support is not strong.

Thus you can have a constituency where theoretically they should be popular, and had a good result in the European elections, but basically it's a massive hill to climb.

Rochester is like this, basically and hence lower ranked.

HTH