Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 5

[simoid]

All that's certain is whatever happens, it won't be the fault of a supporter of independence.

[toppstuff]

Gecko1978 said:

I noticed the gap in the latest polls is narrowing. Seems saying No = Netgative and Yes = Land of milk and honey works well with voters.

You would have thought people would give it more thought but guess not. Also if it does go yes and there is not currecy union, orders for ship yards are cancelled, banks leave, the EU says no etc, then what happens then do we have Scotalnd balming the ruk and hatred being breed left an right or will people blame the folk who lied to them...hmm seems odd.

Still I suspect closer to the time there will be less chance to say its all bluff and scaremongering etc and more pressuer to say what plan B will be.

I think you are spot on.

If the vote is Yes ( and that is still a big IF, it may well still be No ) then you are right..

- There won't be a currency union. But they will keep the Pound. Scottish central bank will have to hold lots of sterling reserves - this could easily totally throw out the finance assumptions made and have a big impact on the Scottish economy but no-one on Yes has done the maths. Still, if it happens, they will peg to the pound and we will see how aggressively the FX markets try to arbitrage the currency. This should worry them a LOT.

- It will be certain that Royal Navy contracts will leave - EU rules won't allow for anything else.

- EU membership will at best take years and years, at worst not happen at all. There are too many countries in the EU that hate nationalistic movements because it frightens them in their own countries.

So it is easy to imagine it all going wrong and lots of people falling out with each other in the process.

It does seem an odd objective. But it what they will end up with if they vote Yes.

[///ajd]

interesting views

http://www.realstreet.co.uk/2014/03/slick-propagan...

funny how the bloke who presumably works in a pub, is described as working in the 'hospitality industry'. seems the snp have to 'sex up' supporters jobs to make them seem more credible i guess. just like the much quoted 'nobell lorryats' that reckon rUK should back all the risks of a currency union.

[Mrr T]

Many on here, most I expect English like myself have been, pushing the nats for answers on some of the very important questions such as what currency, what happens if the EU say no, the nats have been avoiding the questions. I assume they are just following Alex the braves lead.

The reason for Alex avoiding the questions is easy to understand. Alex believes he can create a independent Scottish socialist utopia. For that he needs to win 50% of the vote at the referendum. Alex did not ask for a formal referendum because he could not afford to lose. He was looking for less formal vote which had a low enough turnout that the core nat vote might give him a win.

The formal referendum is likely to have a far higher turn out so the core nat vote will not be enough for him to win. To win he needs the don't knows and there are 2 strategies to win them over:
1. The truth - There are lots of difficulties to creating an independent Scotland and not every thing will be roses.
2. The story - Its all easy very little will change and you will all be better off.

Strategy 1 will never win over the don't knows. strategy 2 might so he is following that strategy.

I think the saying is you never won an election by over estimating the intelligence of the voters.

The problem for the nats is if they win.

All divorces are difficult and Alex the braves habit of insulting those who have the power to legislate on the divorce is not a good negotiating stance.

The nats will quickly discover 2 things if they win:
1. The rUk will be in little mood to bare any of the costs or in connivence caused by the divorce.
2. Internationally the successor state will be down to the other parties who have agreed treaties with the UK. I am sure most will be prepared to recognise the rUk a country of 55M and will nuclear weapons as the successor state. It less clear that they will want the in connivence of considering any request that both countries are treated as successor states even if the rUk agreed, This would require Scotland to negotiate all new tax, trade, visa treaties with the rest of the world.

I would not be surprised if the nats win by the time the terms of the divorce are finalised there would be a substantial majority who now want to continue the union.

[McWigglebum4th]

Mrr T said:

Many on here, most I expect English like myself have been, pushing the nats for answers on some of the very important questions such as what currency, what happens if the EU say no, the nats have been avoiding the questions. I assume they are just following Alex the braves lead.

The reason for Alex avoiding the questions is easy to understand. Alex believes he can create a independent Scottish socialist utopia. For that he needs to win 50% of the vote at the referendum. Alex did not ask for a formal referendum because he could not afford to lose. He was looking for less formal vote which had a low enough turnout that the core nat vote might give him a win.

The formal referendum is likely to have a far higher turn out so the core nat vote will not be enough for him to win. To win he needs the don't knows and there are 2 strategies to win them over:
1. The truth - There are lots of difficulties to creating an independent Scotland and not every thing will be roses.
2. The story - Its all easy very little will change and you will all be better off.

Strategy 1 will never win over the don't knows. strategy 2 might so he is following that strategy.

I think the saying is you never won an election by over estimating the intelligence of the voters.

The problem for the nats is if they win.

All divorces are difficult and Alex the braves habit of insulting those who have the power to legislate on the divorce is not a good negotiating stance.

The nats will quickly discover 2 things if they win:
1. The rUk will be in little mood to bare any of the costs or in connivence caused by the divorce.
2. Internationally the successor state will be down to the other parties who have agreed treaties with the UK. I am sure most will be prepared to recognise the rUk a country of 55M and will nuclear weapons as the successor state. It less clear that they will want the in connivence of considering any request that both countries are treated as successor states even if the rUk agreed, This would require Scotland to negotiate all new tax, trade, visa treaties with the rest of the world.

I would not be surprised if the nats win by the time the terms of the divorce are finalised there would be a substantial majority who now want to continue the union.

We won't get a second referendum

no chance

and the nats don't give a fk how bad the terms are

as they will have FFRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[A.J.M]

By the time the full details of the divorce are sorted, many if us who wanted to leave will have packed our bags and fked off to leave them to it.

[Alpacaman]

I think a lot of the yes voters do believe every word Alex Salmond says, they think he is right that the rest of the UK will go "oh yes we were bluffing about the currency union" they think every country in the EU will say "welcome, we can't survive without you". They think everyone is bluffing or bullying or scaremongering. They don't even seem to consider it a possibility that it won't happen.

I fully accept that many people here feel that Westminster is a long way away and might not always represent their views, but to me Holyrood is no better, and the dangers and uncertainties of independence are far too great. To go into a referendum not knowing exactly what will happen with currency and the EU, and with all the potential risks to cross border trade, I think you would have no option but to vote no. If we were a great trading nation or had a growing young workforce things might be different. Viewing Scotland through rose tinted glasses will not change the reality. We can't rely on North Sea oil or wind power and we can't survive on sales of whisky and smoked salmon. We are stronger in the Union, the risks are spread between 70 million and not 6, and we have a louder voice across the world.

This referendum is already damaging peoples view of Scotland and I believe it will cause long term damage to this country whatever the result. My only hope is that Alex Salmond will go down in history as the man who tried to destroy Scotland and not as the man that did. I am proud to be British, born in England, with Welsh, Scottish and Irish ancestors, and choosing to live in Scotland, and I don't want that taken away from me.

[MintyChris]

I think the problem is that people want to believe so badly that Scotland will be better on its own that they will believe anything on the yes side and will ignore everything from the no side.

There is faith in your country and then there is blind arrogance.

Ofcoarse there are also lots and lots of people who are completely misinformed aswell, place themselves completely outside of discussion circles because it doesn't interest them, yet are happy to just assume this info in their heads is fact.

And despite what some will say there are quite a few who just simply hate. Hate the English, hate the tories...hate anything that is different from what they class as a Scot.

Its a sad state of affairs.

[Gecko1978]

In 1997 I went to uni in Scotland (Stirling) it was a great place beautiful campus great course inexpensive to live there etc. However I also encountered for the first time in my life the phrase "yues English" sort of pointing me out as being different. Now as it happens I was born in wales to welsh parents but had lived just outside london since I was 11 and had a southern accent.

I never knew there was a rivalry between Scotland and England and had always thought of myself as British so this was a revelation. Most other students I met could care less about the old divide but one or two really felt oppressed telling me if Scotland had its oil it would he richest country in europe and that the government hide this from the people (how they knew this then is anyones guess).

Still as time passed I put it down to banter and joking etc now years later it makes me laugh that thoes crazy ideas have fulled a strong political movement desperate to break away from there oppressors.

Divorce is messy no one wins and the costs are huge, remaining friends afterwards because its best for one side or the other is a pipe dream.

[Gecko1978]

Also while Scotland might be a better society with a goverment more representative of scottish peoples values, its a fact today save the USA (and its market power is diminishing) we are no longer a planet dominated by one global power but more blocs of nations. The UK on its own is not as mighty as it is without being a member of Europe or Nato or having a seat at the UN or having strong bonds with the US.

I wonder who Scotland will forge aliances with my guess would be they would choose the UK but would the rest of the UK choose them (Europe have said no, USA have not looked fondly on independance the northern european states are alinged with the EU etc).

Scotland needs to think of the bigger pictuer. Take evil Tory run London its a Global city and by far the wealthest in the UK. Its not perfect but it contributes 14% of total GDP or to put iy more bluntly the financial centers in the city and the wharf contribute 14% of UK GDP. Because they are global not because they are isolationist.

That revenue is then spread across all of the UK (a good thing) we still have rich and poor but can give every one a fair minimum standard and lets face it times are tough now pre 2007 times were good and that golden goose allowed many more goverment jobs to be created outside of London.

So what will scotland do to fund its pooer areas (dwindling oil requirinfg subsidiesed devlopment and brought on shore in England).

Being small in a large world sucks unless you are a leader in a certain feild. (Germany Japan car production, UK Finance, Italy Fashion etc)

[toppstuff]

If Scotland votes Yes, I think it is easy to imagine how things could go bad, and pretty quickly, too.

Currency Union is out. So Scotland will independently peg to the pound. The reserves they will have to hold will cost a fortune and, even then, there is the real risk that the pegged Scottish currency will be arbitraged on the FX markets and take a beating - or , at least, have a lot of volatility. This means that inflation may be a problem. At the very least - you are likely to see price disparity cropping up on each side of the new border. That could be awkward to say the least.

Joblessness WILL increase, simply because the rUk will protect its own. Shipyards, finance, etc, will move south.

EU membership is not on the cards - at least not immediately, and certainly not for at least several years. This will mean that Scotland will be on its own.

Scotland could quickly become a mess. Inflation, joblessness, isolation. And people will want to blame someone. Knowing the SNP, it is obvious that they won't take responsibility themselves but blame the English.

It could get ugly, very quickly.

It is very, very depressing to consider just how realistic this scenario could be.

[Mrr T]

toppstuff said:

If Scotland votes Yes, I think it is easy to imagine how things could go bad, and pretty quickly, too.

Currency Union is out. So Scotland will independently peg to the pound. The reserves they will have to hold will cost a fortune and, even then, there is the real risk that the pegged Scottish currency will be arbitraged on the FX markets and take a beating - or , at least, have a lot of volatility. This means that inflation may be a problem. At the very least - you are likely to see price disparity cropping up on each side of the new border. That could be awkward to say the least.

Joblessness WILL increase, simply because the rUk will protect its own. Shipyards, finance, etc, will move south.

EU membership is not on the cards - at least not immediately, and certainly not for at least several years. This will mean that Scotland will be on its own.

Scotland could quickly become a mess. Inflation, joblessness, isolation. And people will want to blame someone. Knowing the SNP, it is obvious that they won't take responsibility themselves but blame the English.

It could get ugly, very quickly.

It is very, very depressing to consider just how realistic this scenario could be.

I agree a currency union will not take place.

However, I do not understand why you suggest Scotland will peg its new currency to sterling. 1992 proves that no matter how big your bank account is if the market has a different view on the exchange rate the market wins.

I do not see the need for a peg. Europe has a number of countries with shared borders, use different currencies, and being within the EU individuals have complete rights to move goods across the borders. This does not seem to cause any problems.

Anyway since Scotland will not be in the EU its likely any trade agreement Scotland agrees with the EU will not extend to individuals. So anyone crossing the border from Scotland into the UK will be subject to the same import regime as those entering from other non EU countries.

[pcvdriver]

Alpacaman said:

But the SNP have already said Gordon Brown is (Surprise surprise) Scaremongering.

I wouldn't trust Gordon Brown if he told me that Wednesday followed Tuesday every week. I'd be cross checking the information from other sources first. (and for those who might be tempted into silly remarks - I know for a fact that Wednesday follows Tuesday every week, but being told anything by GB, I'd want some independently verified facts first).

[Wombat3]

pcvdriver said:

Alpacaman said:

But the SNP have already said Gordon Brown is (Surprise surprise) Scaremongering.

I wouldn't trust Gordon Brown if he told me that Wednesday followed Tuesday every week. I'd be cross checking the information from other sources first. (and for those who might be tempted into silly remarks - I know for a fact that Wednesday follows Tuesday every week, but being told anything by GB, I'd want some independently verified facts first).

Regret to advise that in an independent Scotland, Wednesday will no longer follow Tuesday, the Sun will no longer rise in the East, Scotland will have a currency Union with the UK, will have a fully equipped armed forces from day one, will be nuclear free within 3 months; and will be an automatic member of the EU.

Lastly, Scottish Nationalists are highly economic with the truth.

(only one of these things is true)

[London424]

pcvdriver said:

Alpacaman said:

But the SNP have already said Gordon Brown is (Surprise surprise) Scaremongering.

I wouldn't trust Gordon Brown if he told me that Wednesday followed Tuesday every week. I'd be cross checking the information from other sources first. (and for those who might be tempted into silly remarks - I know for a fact that Wednesday follows Tuesday every week, but being told anything by GB, I'd want some independently verified facts first).

And yet you seem to be pretty light on the facts on every other issue.

[simoid]

pcvdriver said:

I wouldn't trust Gordon Brown if he told me that Wednesday followed Tuesday every week. I'd be cross checking the information from other sources first. (and for those who might be tempted into silly remarks - I know for a fact that Wednesday follows Tuesday every week, but being told anything by GB, I'd want some independently verified facts first).

I appreciate the desire to verify claims.

Do you trust any politicians? Or do you check all claims?

[McWigglebum4th]

pcvdriver said:

I wouldn't trust Gordon Brown if he told me that Wednesday followed Tuesday every week. I'd be cross checking the information from other sources first. (and for those who might be tempted into silly remarks - I know for a fact that Wednesday follows Tuesday every week, but being told anything by GB, I'd want some independently verified facts first).

Where as what ever the YES campaign sayes is the gospel truth

[alock]

Mrr T said:

However, I do not understand why you suggest Scotland will peg its new currency to sterling. 1992 proves that no matter how big your bank account is if the market has a different view on the exchange rate the market wins.

If you didn't have a peg (at least for a couple of years), you are running the risk of the markets inflating or deflating the new currency.

As an example, you probably have a mortgage and pension in GBP. What happens if the new currency inflates or deflates. Your mortgage might go up but then your pension might as well. Do you want to take the risk? Do you think the majority of Scots want to take this risk? Have huge numbers not even thought about this?

[pcvdriver]

Gecko1978 said:

Divorce is messy no one wins and the costs are huge, remaining friends afterwards because its best for one side or the other is a pipe dream.

Divorce, can indeed be messy, expensive and acrimonious, but it needn't be. To use an oft quote PH expression "Just think of the children"..... Only the bat-st crazy go for all out war in divorces. The more pragmatic go for mutual acceptance that the marriage is over and work together, in order not to have the children have to, or want to choose between their parents.

[mrpurple]

pcvdriver said:

Gecko1978 said:

Divorce is messy no one wins and the costs are huge, remaining friends afterwards because its best for one side or the other is a pipe dream.

Divorce, can indeed be messy, expensive and acrimonious, but it needn't be. To use an oft quote PH expression "Just think of the children"..... Only the bat-st crazy go for all out war in divorces. The more pragmatic go for mutual acceptance that the marriage is over and work together, in order not to have the children have to, or want to choose between their parents.

Totally agree....from my experience it is the one that wants out and then finds the grass is not greener after all that then turns on the acrimony.