Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 5
Discussion
Einion Yrth said:
Moonhawk said:
pcvdriver said:
Self-rule......instead of having to ask Westminster everytime we want to do something. Before you chirp on about Brussels. Any power Brussels has, has been ceded voluntarily by it's member states, this is not the case with Holyrood and Westminster.
The act of union was entered into entirely voluntarily by Scotland.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acts_of_Union_1707#Tr...
Exactly how would you implement a nationwide vote on the proposed union in 1707 I wonder?
Siscar said:
Mrr T said:
Siscar said:
Mrr T said:
alock said:
The definition of 'mortgagee' is the lender. Is this what you meant?
I would have thought the mortgagee would rather keep the book value in the more stable currency? They're more likely to lose money by transferring the debt to a new currency. The borrower is more likely to want to change to the currency they are now being paid in.
Unfortunately this is plan B which the SNP don't want to discuss. I wonder why?
Yes I meant the lender. A lender would rather the loan was in the same currency as the underlying property since it eliminates FX risk. You can get Euro loans on Uk property but the LtoV and rates are very different to a sterling mortgage.I would have thought the mortgagee would rather keep the book value in the more stable currency? They're more likely to lose money by transferring the debt to a new currency. The borrower is more likely to want to change to the currency they are now being paid in.
Unfortunately this is plan B which the SNP don't want to discuss. I wonder why?
They would convert the loan to the new currency and hedge any FX risk between their borrowings and the loan with na FX forward. That's much better for the bank than having the property and loan in different currencies which would give a real FX risk if the borrower defaults.
I don't think we can ignore the reality of needing a peg IMO. I can't see how Scotland could avoid not using a peg.
Given the completely different economic dynamic of Scotland vs the rUK and how it would effectively be a petri-currency, you will quickly see quite large differences emerging between the two currencies if they were not pegged.
This would mean that things would be priced differently on each side of the Scottish border. The likelihood is that the Scottish unpegged currency would be weaker - so the markets would speak and rates would rise. Pretty soon a pint of beer costs more in Glasgow that it will in Carlisle.
I can imagine cheap booze and fags warehouses cropping up on the English side of the border.
barryrs said:
Im not sure you can directly compare the democratic process of 1707 to today.
Exactly how would you implement a nationwide vote on the proposed union in 1707 I wonder?
You can't compare it at all. Universal suffrage in the UK wasn't achieved until 1928, in Northern Ireland I think it was the late 1960s.Exactly how would you implement a nationwide vote on the proposed union in 1707 I wonder?
In 1707 very, very few people had the vote at all and those who did were landed and/or wealthy and already wielded power.
This is one of the things that really narks me about the whole freedom/Bannockburn/Braveheart nonsense that appeals to some. The common people - serfs - for most of human existence have had to suck up whatever s
t got thrown their way. I can't imagine a Scottish peasant felt any better off or saw any material benefit for being Scottish than his peers in England, Wales or anywhere else. 
toppstuff said:
snip I don't think we can ignore the reality of needing a peg IMO. I can't see how Scotland could avoid not using a peg.
How does it work in countries that have adoped the US dollar? How does a mortgage work in, say, Ecuador, which doesn't have a currency of its own?Genuine question, I promise I'm not trolling.
Alfa numeric said:
toppstuff said:
snip I don't think we can ignore the reality of needing a peg IMO. I can't see how Scotland could avoid not using a peg.
How does it work in countries that have adoped the US dollar? How does a mortgage work in, say, Ecuador, which doesn't have a currency of its own?Genuine question, I promise I'm not trolling.
They tried a peg but it ended very badly with hyper inflation.
The issue is that prices in Ecuador have no relation to prices in the US. Average salary in Ecuador is only about $300 per month and a loaf of bread is less than a dollar. Their economy is nothing like Scotlands.
Without a peg, the Scottish currency would get arbitraged in the markets - essentially because Scotland will have a lot of debt, not many taxpayers, a large public sector to pay for and a strong dependence on the oil price. This will mean that the Scottish currency will behave differently to the UK currency.
If the Scots don't want prices to be different compared to over the border, they will be forced to peg. Pegging will mean Scotland holding lots of Sterling and using it to protect their own currency from devaluing.
In any event, prices, wages etc, are likely to separate between Scotland the rUK. It does not take much imagination to consider the potential problems that brings.
Einion Yrth said:
Not, in fairness, the most democratic of procedures.
It was entirely democratic. The average English person had just as little say in the formation of the Union as the average Scottish person did 
Joking aside though. Whether or not it was 'democratic' or not by todays standards is kinda irrelevant - it was kinda implied that the union was forced on Scotland by England against Scotland's will. This is not the case - the union was negotiated by the authorities in charge of both countries at the time - and the agreement was entered into by mutual agreement.
Edited by Moonhawk on Thursday 24th April 16:25
toppstuff said:
A rolling FX forward is going to be expensive - who would pay for it?
A 3 month FX roll should costs no more than 2/3bp.toppstuff said:
I don't think we can ignore the reality of needing a peg IMO. I can't see how Scotland could avoid not using a peg.
Given the completely different economic dynamic of Scotland vs the rUK and how it would effectively be a petri-currency, you will quickly see quite large differences emerging between the two currencies if they were not pegged.
Even more reason a peg would not work.1992 proved if the market believes a pegged currency is undervalued or overvalued against the peg the market wins.Given the completely different economic dynamic of Scotland vs the rUK and how it would effectively be a petri-currency, you will quickly see quite large differences emerging between the two currencies if they were not pegged.
toppstuff said:
This would mean that things would be priced differently on each side of the Scottish border. The likelihood is that the Scottish unpegged currency would be weaker - so the markets would speak and rates would rise. Pretty soon a pint of beer costs more in Glasgow that it will in Carlisle.
Just as happens with Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic all of whom have there own currency and say Austria and Germany who use the Euro.toppstuff said:
I can imagine cheap booze and fags warehouses cropping up on the English side of the border.
Why? The change is currency value will be reflected in the costs of the goods.Why can't we be independent? Are we as Scots, too wee, too poor, too stupid? ...We have to believe in ourselves that we CAN make this work..
Forgetting oil, EU, taxes, Trident etc, for a moment, a yes vote means that Scots will have a vote in their own parliament for their own parties and policies instead of the constant labour/tory yo-yoing run by middle England in Wesminster, where we have not had a vote since the early '70's
Our own vote will work for us and us alone. The SNP will be no more, Alex will be out of a job and retired again.
Who cares if it works or not, the whole point is that it'll be up to us whether we sink or swim and its worth it just for that alone..
The reality is, ..is that there is no choice for Scots, ..as if you vote No, your voting against your own country and as such, you aren't a Scot or don't wish to be. This is an amazing chance to secure a future for generations to come, we need to grab this with both hands and make it work at ANY cost.. Anything else doesn't bear thinking about..
I can't fault your argument Exitwound and for you an independent Scotland will work (no matter the cost). If the SNP used the same argument your fellow countrymen could make an informed decision as to whether they felt the risk was worthwhile for them. I imagine your job in the NHS would remain safe, if you were a shipyard welder and your employment might disappear, I wonder if you would still feel the same way.
simoid said:
Cos Scotland will tax the hell out of them?
Assuming no profit or taxes. lets say an orange costs 1 euro in Spain to produce. If 1 pound is worth 1 euro and sterling and groat are at parity, Orange will cost 1 pound in the Uk and 1 groat in Scotland. If groat is now worth 50p. Orange will now cost 1 pound in the UK and 2 groats in Scotland. Mrr T said:
Assuming no profit or taxes. lets say an orange costs 1 euro in Spain to produce. If 1 pound is worth 1 euro and sterling and groat are at parity, Orange will cost 1 pound in the Uk and 1 groat in Scotland.
Not necessarily, the orange could cost 1 euro in Spain, 2 pounds in rUK and 3 groats in Scotland even if they are all at parity.Mrr T said:
simoid said:
Cos Scotland will tax the hell out of them?
Assuming no profit or taxes. lets say an orange costs 1 euro in Spain to produce. If 1 pound is worth 1 euro and sterling and groat are at parity, Orange will cost 1 pound in the Uk and 1 groat in Scotland. If groat is now worth 50p. Orange will now cost 1 pound in the UK and 2 groats in Scotland. 
exitwound said:
Why can't we be independent? Are we as Scots, too wee, too poor, too stupid? ...We have to believe in ourselves that we CAN make this work..
Forgetting oil, EU, taxes, Trident etc, for a moment, a yes vote means that Scots will have a vote in their own parliament for their own parties and policies instead of the constant labour/tory yo-yoing run by middle England in Wesminster, where we have not had a vote since the early '70's
Our own vote will work for us and us alone. The SNP will be no more, Alex will be out of a job and retired again.
Who cares if it works or not, the whole point is that it'll be up to us whether we sink or swim and its worth it just for that alone..
The reality is, ..is that there is no choice for Scots, ..as if you vote No, your voting against your own country and as such, you aren't a Scot or don't wish to be. This is an amazing chance to secure a future for generations to come, we need to grab this with both hands and make it work at ANY cost.. Anything else doesn't bear thinking about..
Wow! At any cost, really?Forgetting oil, EU, taxes, Trident etc, for a moment, a yes vote means that Scots will have a vote in their own parliament for their own parties and policies instead of the constant labour/tory yo-yoing run by middle England in Wesminster, where we have not had a vote since the early '70's
Our own vote will work for us and us alone. The SNP will be no more, Alex will be out of a job and retired again.
Who cares if it works or not, the whole point is that it'll be up to us whether we sink or swim and its worth it just for that alone..
The reality is, ..is that there is no choice for Scots, ..as if you vote No, your voting against your own country and as such, you aren't a Scot or don't wish to be. This is an amazing chance to secure a future for generations to come, we need to grab this with both hands and make it work at ANY cost.. Anything else doesn't bear thinking about..
exitwound said:
Why can't we be independent? Are we as Scots, too wee, too poor, too stupid? ...We have to believe in ourselves that we CAN make this work..
Forgetting oil, EU, taxes, Trident etc, for a moment, a yes vote means that Scots will have a vote in their own parliament for their own parties and policies instead of the constant labour/tory yo-yoing run by middle England in Wesminster, where we have not had a vote since the early '70's
Our own vote will work for us and us alone. The SNP will be no more, Alex will be out of a job and retired again.
Who cares if it works or not, the whole point is that it'll be up to us whether we sink or swim and its worth it just for that alone..
The reality is, ..is that there is no choice for Scots, ..as if you vote No, your voting against your own country and as such, you aren't a Scot or don't wish to be. This is an amazing chance to secure a future for generations to come, we need to grab this with both hands and make it work at ANY cost.. Anything else doesn't bear thinking about..
You can be British and Scottish, just as you can be Scottish and Orcandian or whatever.Forgetting oil, EU, taxes, Trident etc, for a moment, a yes vote means that Scots will have a vote in their own parliament for their own parties and policies instead of the constant labour/tory yo-yoing run by middle England in Wesminster, where we have not had a vote since the early '70's
Our own vote will work for us and us alone. The SNP will be no more, Alex will be out of a job and retired again.
Who cares if it works or not, the whole point is that it'll be up to us whether we sink or swim and its worth it just for that alone..
The reality is, ..is that there is no choice for Scots, ..as if you vote No, your voting against your own country and as such, you aren't a Scot or don't wish to be. This is an amazing chance to secure a future for generations to come, we need to grab this with both hands and make it work at ANY cost.. Anything else doesn't bear thinking about..
There is no need to choose between them, describing yourself as British doesn't make you any less Scottish any more than being Scottish doesn't make you any less Orcadian.
exitwound said:
Why can't we be independent? Are we as Scots, too wee, too poor, too stupid? ...We have to believe in ourselves that we CAN make this work..
Forgetting oil, EU, taxes, Trident etc, for a moment, a yes vote means that Scots will have a vote in their own parliament for their own parties and policies instead of the constant labour/tory yo-yoing run by middle England in Wesminster, where we have not had a vote since the early '70's
Our own vote will work for us and us alone. The SNP will be no more, Alex will be out of a job and retired again.
Who cares if it works or not, the whole point is that it'll be up to us whether we sink or swim and its worth it just for that alone..
The reality is, ..is that there is no choice for Scots, ..as if you vote No, your voting against your own country and as such, you aren't a Scot or don't wish to be. This is an amazing chance to secure a future for generations to come, we need to grab this with both hands and make it work at ANY cost.. Anything else doesn't bear thinking about..
Haha the sad thing is some people probably actually think like that Forgetting oil, EU, taxes, Trident etc, for a moment, a yes vote means that Scots will have a vote in their own parliament for their own parties and policies instead of the constant labour/tory yo-yoing run by middle England in Wesminster, where we have not had a vote since the early '70's
Our own vote will work for us and us alone. The SNP will be no more, Alex will be out of a job and retired again.
Who cares if it works or not, the whole point is that it'll be up to us whether we sink or swim and its worth it just for that alone..
The reality is, ..is that there is no choice for Scots, ..as if you vote No, your voting against your own country and as such, you aren't a Scot or don't wish to be. This is an amazing chance to secure a future for generations to come, we need to grab this with both hands and make it work at ANY cost.. Anything else doesn't bear thinking about..
(I'm really hoping you're at the wind up)
Mrr T said:
toppstuff said:
A rolling FX forward is going to be expensive - who would pay for it?
A 3 month FX roll should costs no more than 2/3bp.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff