Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 5

[toppstuff]

Interesting to note that I am aware of several private equity deals, set to invest in Scottish companies, now aborted pending the outcome.

This is money that was set to be invested in Scottish companies, providing for jobs. Now it is on hold. Logic is simple - there is far too much economic and regulatory uncertainty for investors to stomach.

Will there be a new currency/ a pegged currency? Who will be the regulator? What about the EU? All serious questions that demand serious answers from serious people. And nothing is forthcoming other than an "fingers crossed it will be alright" narrative from the Scots leaders..

And so the unravelling begins..

[Gecko1978]

if we have a currecny union and thus share the assets including the pound this would be on a population basis. So Circa 10% of UK assets given to scotland etc so then 90% of UK assets saty with rUK so Oil its not the physical black stuff that we would want rather the £'s it generates in revenu so we get 90% of that and Scotland get 10% and that also means scotland get to use 10% of UK consulates etc over seas. Geographical share has F all to do with it, its all about being fair.

So VP, Burger tell me whats wrong with that (apart from there will be no CU and no one really thinks we are going to get 90% of oil even though if we have to give you 10% of everything we have so you must share too).

[McWigglebum4th]

toppstuff said:

Interesting to note that I am aware of several private equity deals, set to invest in Scottish companies, now aborted pending the outcome.

This is money that was set to be invested in Scottish companies, providing for jobs. Now it is on hold. Logic is simple - there is far too much economic and regulatory uncertainty for investors to stomach.

Quite a wise move

As once we are free from oppression we will all get a share of the 3429857345689billion pounds a second we generate in scotland


I'm buying ferrari

[Welshbeef]

Gecko1978 said:

if we have a currecny union and thus share the assets including the pound this would be on a population basis. So Circa 10% of UK assets given to scotland etc so then 90% of UK assets saty with rUK so Oil its not the physical black stuff that we would want rather the £'s it generates in revenu so we get 90% of that and Scotland get 10% and that also means scotland get to use 10% of UK consulates etc over seas. Geographical share has F all to do with it, its all about being fair.

So VP, Burger tell me whats wrong with that (apart from there will be no CU and no one really thinks we are going to get 90% of oil even though if we have to give you 10% of everything we have so you must share too).

But they want 10% of rUK and keep 100% of their own that's the fairness that SNP and the pro Tes supporters want.

Heck can we calculate how much of the Darian bail out costs are still yet to be paid?

[Welshbeef]

So given the report today its better for Scotland to dump the debt as Oil tax revenue would never pay it off - let's say IFrUK allowed a CU then they would take the debt as such an Oil Wealth fund could never happen as they would be paying off the debt so the sole way they can get a wealth fund is to default on the debt.


These Scots are getting nicer and nicer as every day passes.

[bullies180]

jimmyjimjim said:

pcvdriver said:

jimmyjimjim said:

How does being born English make it impossible for you to be anti-English?

Oh Jim, you sussed me out!!! I hate myself and my family and relatives and everyone South of the border. I'm an SNP plant sent back in time as a No Vote Terminator.

Alex-net went live at 0800 bst 17th September 2014 and I was sent back to 1970, so I would only be 9 years old, when the first referendum came round - unable to vote, I would be racked with hatred of a system that wouldn't allow 9 year olds to vote. Fast forward to present-day I became so bitter and twisted I would stab anyone English in my vicinity and call anyone who tried to come to their aid a bunch of s!!!*

*Of course my comments above do not represent any notion of reality, as for Jimjim's - they are just loopy..... Nurse, Nurse!!! Jimmy's got out again and he's got sharpened crayons

This seems a fairly excessive reaction to a simple question? But not an answer?

Did you really think you would actually get a proper answer?

[confused_buyer]

Welshbeef said:

So given the report today its better for Scotland to dump the debt as Oil tax revenue would never pay it off - let's say IFrUK allowed a CU then they would take the debt as such an Oil Wealth fund could never happen as they would be paying off the debt so the sole way they can get a wealth fund is to default on the debt.


These Scots are getting nicer and nicer as every day passes.

There are no figures anywhere which support an oil wealth fund unless Scotland runs a significant structual deficit with or without the debt. I know Norway is often used as a shining example but they haven't managed it either. They've built up a fund, but they've also built up a load of external debt about equal to it. All they've done is take out some cash on a credit card, put it in a savings account and declared it their money.

[jimmyjimjim]

bullies180 said:

Did you really think you would actually get a proper answer?

Actually, yes. It wasn't a policy question, nor was it something that couldn't be answerred because it wasn't measured or recorded currently; such as tax receipts, nor was it asking for details of a non-existant plan B.

So yes, I thought it would be inside his remit to reply.

[pcvdriver]

McWigglebum4th said:

Scottish nationalists

Isn't surprising how many english friends they always have

Nope, not even slightly.......and your point is?


Silly me, it's your usual cheap jibe, I don't know why I didn't recognise it as such at first - maybe I thought you'd given up the childish slurs you usually come out with and had decided to advocate sensible discussion instead..... note to self "Don't automatically Wiggly's "contributions" as a vehicle for sensible debate"...

Edited by pcvdriver on Tuesday 15th April 15:38

[Neonblau]

jimmyjimjim said:

Actually, yes. It wasn't a policy question, nor was it something that couldn't be answerred because it wasn't measured or recorded currently; such as tax receipts, nor was it asking for details of a non-existant plan B.

So yes, I thought it would be inside his remit to reply.

Fat chance. I'm waiting on an answer to a question I asked about all the decisions that will be made in, by and for Scotland and the benefits that will accrue.

Seems nat strategy is to file it in the "too difficult" bundle.

[pcvdriver]

Neonblau said:

Specifically which decisions do you have in mind, that can't already be made in Scotland, and what will the specific benefits be? Apart from your nuke obsession.

Specifically? Well for starters, immigration (there are other issues too, but for now let's stick with immigration). Whilst I appreciate that the sentiment from within the M25 is that "Eff Off Jonny Foreigner - we're full", as has been espoused by quite a few of the usual suspects (I won't go into naming and shaming individuals) - in other areas of the country we are not at bursting point.
In Scotland (there is the same issue, but to a slightly lesser extent South of the border) we have a population of working age that is shrinking and a population of pension age that is growing.
It has been calculated by the Institute of Economic Research that in 50 years, if nothing is done to address this problem, then we will reach critical mass where we will not be able to support our pensioners. We simply aren't having kids at the rate we used to a generation or two ago (this goes for both North and South of the border).
Therefore we need to massively encourage immigration, not restrict it, as has become various parties in Westminster's MO for some time now. Westminster and Whitehall make kneejerk reactions just because some wooly-headed numpties make the crack-pot assertions that they're all coming over here and taking our jobs.
At the current rate - we'll all be working well into our 80's by the time I retire - instead of being able to retire at 65/66 at present.

Westminster will always pander to the wishes of the needs of London first, so rational debate with Westminster as regards immigration will never happen, as Westminster will never allow us (Scotland) to make decisions regarding immigration. I'd vote for independence on an immigration ticket alone.

The nukes thing.....would be just the icing on the cake

[toppstuff]

pcvdriver said:

yada yada yada

Immigration? Is that really the burning issue of the day? Really?!

No Plan B for the currency. No answer to the thorny question of EU membership. But you want to talk about immigration?

Scotland could be holding a worthless pegged currency and be on the outside of the EU ( indeed, this is a probability not a remote possibility, given the FACTS of the matter ) in which case I can't imagine many people wanting to emigrate there..

[NomduJour]

toppstuff said:

in which case I can't imagine many people wanting to emigrate there

Not so sure given the SNP propose to keep paying benefits to failed asylum seekers.

[barryrs]

pcvdriver said:

Specifically? Well for starters, immigration (there are other issues too, but for now let's stick with immigration). Whilst I appreciate that the sentiment from within the M25 is that "Eff Off Jonny Foreigner - we're full", as has been espoused by quite a few of the usual suspects (I won't go into naming and shaming individuals) - in other areas of the country we are not at bursting point.
In Scotland (there is the same issue, but to a slightly lesser extent South of the border) we have a population of working age that is shrinking and a population of pension age that is growing.
It has been calculated by the Institute of Economic Research that in 50 years, if nothing is done to address this problem, then we will reach critical mass where we will not be able to support our pensioners. We simply aren't having kids at the rate we used to a generation or two ago (this goes for both North and South of the border).
Therefore we need to massively encourage immigration, not restrict it, as has become various parties in Westminster's MO for some time now. Westminster and Whitehall make kneejerk reactions just because some wooly-headed numpties make the crack-pot assertions that they're all coming over here and taking our jobs.
At the current rate - we'll all be working well into our 80's by the time I retire - instead of being able to retire at 65/66 at present.

Westminster will always pander to the wishes of the needs of London first, so rational debate with Westminster as regards immigration will never happen, as Westminster will never allow us (Scotland) to make decisions regarding immigration. I'd vote for independence on an immigration ticket alone.

The nukes thing.....would be just the icing on the cake

Why cant the Scottish Government currently make Scotland a more attractive place to immigrants now?

If there are the jobs and infrastructure to support higher population growth it really wouldn't be that difficult for Scotland to make the EU aware that they are "open for business" so to speak.

The only difference post independence would be immigration by non EU workers and the SNP's party line appears to be typically vague.

"Mr Salmond told MSPs the IFS had made clear that a different path could be taken"

[toppstuff]

NomduJour said:

toppstuff said:

in which case I can't imagine many people wanting to emigrate there

Not so sure given the SNP propose to keep paying benefits to failed asylum seekers.

I would love to see the envelope that Salmond must have used to calculate the impact of all of this...

A Scottish currency, pegged to the Pound/ USD / NOK or whatever.. How much in reserves would the central bank of Scotland have to hold in the foreign currency in order to stop the currency being arbitraged in the currency markets and made worthless overnight? I can't see Scottish people taking kindly to paying a Million Grotes for a loaf of bread - so the central bank is going to have to hold a LOT of currency. If not, Scotland will be doomed .

How much will the bank have to set aside in foreign currency reserves to support the peg?

What will it cost ?

How much will be left to pay for all this immigration and to provide for the future?

No idea.

Chancers, the lot of them. I can imagine how rapidly the mood will change if the gullible vote yes only to find a few months later just what a mess they are in.. Salmond will be living with Sean Connery in a sunny beach resort by then no doubt, blaming the disaster on the English..

[bodysnatcher]

pcvdriver said:

Therefore we need to massively encourage immigration, not restrict it, as has become various parties in Westminster's MO for some time now. Westminster and Whitehall make kneejerk reactions just because some wooly-headed numpties make the crack-pot assertions that they're all coming over here and taking our jobs.
At the current rate - we'll all be working well into our 80's by the time I retire - instead of being able to retire at 65/66 at present.

Westminster will always pander to the wishes of the needs of London first, so rational debate with Westminster as regards immigration will never happen, as Westminster will never allow us (Scotland) to make decisions regarding immigration. I'd vote for independence on an immigration ticket alone.

Or perhaps make Scotland a place that people do not want to or have to leave?
For most of our history there has been a net out-migration, which has more to do with Scotland than westminster
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files2/stats/high-l...

It's certainly true for my family, at one time there were as many of us in the South of England as in Scotland - which has made many of our next generation English. (or has it?)

People have always migrated from the sticks to the big city - usually because that's where the opportunities are. My father moved from a small island to Glasgow. Why - no real opportunity on a wee island for most kids - & it's still happening today. Politicians are unlikey to make any difference.

I moved South , so that now, despite maintaining a home in Scotland, I have no say in the future of what I regard as my country. (Thats both bits, N & S).

And by the way pal, you all sound like xenophobes, not racists mind, oh no, none of that in Scotland.

[Neonblau]

pcvdriver said:

Specifically? Well for starters, immigration (there are other issues too, but for now let's stick with immigration). Whilst I appreciate that the sentiment from within the M25 is that "Eff Off Jonny Foreigner - we're full", as has been espoused by quite a few of the usual suspects (I won't go into naming and shaming individuals) - in other areas of the country we are not at bursting point.
In Scotland (there is the same issue, but to a slightly lesser extent South of the border) we have a population of working age that is shrinking and a population of pension age that is growing.
It has been calculated by the Institute of Economic Research that in 50 years, if nothing is done to address this problem, then we will reach critical mass where we will not be able to support our pensioners. We simply aren't having kids at the rate we used to a generation or two ago (this goes for both North and South of the border).
Therefore we need to massively encourage immigration, not restrict it, as has become various parties in Westminster's MO for some time now. Westminster and Whitehall make kneejerk reactions just because some wooly-headed numpties make the crack-pot assertions that they're all coming over here and taking our jobs.
At the current rate - we'll all be working well into our 80's by the time I retire - instead of being able to retire at 65/66 at present.

Westminster will always pander to the wishes of the needs of London first, so rational debate with Westminster as regards immigration will never happen, as Westminster will never allow us (Scotland) to make decisions regarding immigration. I'd vote for independence on an immigration ticket alone.

The nukes thing.....would be just the icing on the cake

Okay that's one decision followed by your predictable anti Westminster bullst rant. Do you really think that unfetterd immigration will play well with the electorate?

Scotland currently has a youth unemployment rate of just over 19% which is the same as the UK total and in Scotland that has increased by around 2% in the last year whilst the UK figure has actually fallen 0.5% in the same period. More significantly the equivalent employment rate in Scotland is lower than the UK and has decreased whilst the UK has incresed. Are the SNP saying they are currently powerless to impact that? Surely a more sensible decision would be to focus on getting the existing population into work?

I agree that the worst of the border control type scare stories are unlikely to happen although along with EU membership the position around the Schengen arrangement is absolutely unclear but that agian is dependent on EU membership, if Scotland doesn't get that you can guarantee there will be some from of Scotland to rUK control.

Evidence from countries where liberalisation of immigration policy (Germany, Netherlands, Austria and the UK) has been attempted on the scale you seem to be suggesting tends to indicate that irrespective of any economic argument is that popular opposition is almost inevitable, why should Scotland be any different.

In any event why on earth would immigarnts chose an independent Scotland over the UK, Germany or the US if the economic argument isn't won. And then we are back to the unanswered fundamentals such as currency, EU membership, capital flight and the significant loss of UK goverment jobs and private sector employment. If the finance, shipbuilding and civil service goes the economy will shrink substantially. What are all these immigrants you've got lined up going to do?

What other decisions do you have by, for, to, in Scotland?

[pcvdriver]

mpire said:

pcvdriver said:

Er....fail!!! I've nearly lost count of the amount of times where I have stated how ironic independence would be for the Tory party, as it may spark a revival of their fortunes....

er, fail again ... " the era of Tory governments unelected by the people of Scotland handing out punishment to the poor and disabled, will be gone and gone for good ! "

Salmond at the last SNP conference ...

... that sounds
pretty left wingish to me, from a leader of a party whom you purport has
no anti-Tory impetus to his referendum mandate ... wouldn't you say ?

Seems McW's allegaion that you are virulently anti-Tory has some legs to it , based on that ? Or, at least your leader is ?

I think you'll find he was referring to the status quo - where successive Tory governments have been elected contrary to what the majority of people in Scottish constituencies voted for (using our current first past the post method of returning elected candidates to parliament).
In an independent Scotland, if the Tories get voted in - then it will be by the efforts of voters in Scotland alone...... Now what was it you were saying again?

[HD Adam]

I think we can all see how this will play out whatever the result.

No vote = The nasty English Torys stitched us up.

Yes vote = Negotiations with rUK. No currency union, pay the debt etc. = The nasty English Torys stitched us up.

Yes vote = Negotiations with rUK. Salmond gets everything he asks for +free beer and happy endings. Salmond then proceeds to spaff all the money on the Socialist Nirvana of Scotland with bigger pensions, more benefits, free education, unlimited immigration etc and ends up running to the IMF or being bailed out by rUK = The nasty English Torys stitched us up.

[pcvdriver]

barryrs said:

Why cant the Scottish Government currently make Scotland a more attractive place to immigrants now?

Er.....because under current immigration regs - most wouldn't be allowed Indefinite Leave to Remain, Scotland's hands are tied, as Westminster currently controls immigration regs, or didn't you get that bit?