Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 5

[confused_buyer]

simoid said:

Got the letter there?

Ah cannae find it

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11071043/Independent-Scotland-could-not-keep-pound-and-join-EU.html

[Axionknight]

Cheers!

[anonymous-user]

Sorry for the teenage girl type post, but listening to some 1982 Jethro Tull this morning made me chuckle. Premonition indeed.

"Fallen on hard times, but it feels good to know
That milk and honey's just around the bend
Running on bad lines we'd better run as we go
Tear up, tear up the overdraft again

Oh, dear Prime Minister, it's all such a mess
Go right ahead and pull the rotten tooth
Oh, Mr. President, you've been put to the test
Come clean for once and hit us with the truth

Looking for sunshine, oh, but it's black and it's cold
Yet, you say that milk and honey's just round the bend
Giving us a hard time, my friends
Handing us the same line again

Fallen on hard times and there's nowhere to hide
Now they've re-possessed the Rolls Royce and the mink
Turning on the peace sign and it's back to the wood
Soon there will be raised a holy stink

Somebody wake me I've been sleeping too long
Oh, I don't have to take this lying down
You can keep your promises shove `em where they belong
Don't ask me to the party won't be around

Looking for sunshine, oh, but it's black and it's cold
Yet, you say that milk and honey's just round the bend
Giving us a hard time, my friends
Handing us the same line again"

[anonymous-user]

Moonhawk said:

McWigglebum4th said:

You think they will listen?

Doudtful

Any government perceived as pandering to iScotland will likely be out at the next election - there is enough bad feeling over this issue to ensure that IMO.

The election is in 2015, if Scotland votes yes, will they be allowed to vote in that election? If they vote and Labour win, will there be another general election after the actual break up? It will take years to sort out the mess. I doubt any government in Westminster will come out of it well.

Being in charge during the break up of the union must be career ending for the PM surely?

[Moonhawk]

el stovey said:

Being in charge during the break up of the union must be career ending for the PM surely?

Not if that PM ensures the best interests of the rUK are met. It could actually be a defining moment.

Scottish independence has been a spectre waiting in the shadows for decades - which PM gets lumbered with the actual breakup (should it happen) is largely down to where the roulette wheel stops.

[Gargamel]

McWigglebum4th said:

Easy to answer

We stop paying for trident

or

we have no deficit we are sending 35 billion extra a year to you english SCUM

What a charmer.

Anyone - I have long felt that the only way for Scotland is full independence, it's the only way they will ever really know. Personally I am with Joni Mitchell.

The best and brightest of Scotland's population will be off in a heartbeat, birth rates will fall, so will average incomes. Gradually the big firms will withdraw. York, Leeds and Newcastle will enjoy a proper boom again.

Scotland's taxes will become higher over time and the cost of managing a geographical dispersed population will become even more apparent.

Finally stuff Scotland has taken for granted, like Defence, a Foreign Policy, Consulate services, Passports, trade agreements and currency will gradually separate.

In five years time, instead of better together they will Bitter alone.

[jamiebae]

Are there any estimates floating around on the cost of setting up a new currency, and a central bank to go with it? This appears to be the only way Scotland will be able to join the EU, but I haven't seen any numbers.

It is interesting that the Lloyds move plan has 'leaked' out, I wonder if any other plans might be accidentally released now that the gap in the polls is narrowing. The majority of big employers want the Union to remain, so if they can destabilise the Yes campaign with the implied threat of relocation and the related Scottish job losses I'm sure a few of them will.

There are a lot of very busy surveyors and property guys in London right now working with businesses currently based in Scotland, the government may not be doing any contingency planning, but businesses certainly are.

[ralphrj]

el stovey said:

The election is in 2015, if Scotland votes yes, will they be allowed to vote in that election? If they vote and Labour win, will there be another general election after the actual break up? It will take years to sort out the mess. I doubt any government in Westminster will come out of it well.

I doubt that the 2015 GE would be impacted by a Yes vote as the a date for independence would still have to agreed (even if it were to actually happen post a Yes vote). If independence were to go ahead then there would have to be a bill through Westminster parliament which would also resolve the issue of Scottish MPs. Most likely they would simply cease to be MPs at the date of independence.

In theory, we could end up with a Labour government post 2015 GE that needs Scottish MPs to form a majority. If these MPs cease to exist post independence then what happens next would depend on the state of the parties. If Labour were still the biggest party, Miliband could try to form a coalition in order to continue, rule as a minority government or if there was no hope of forming a working government to declare a GE.

el stovey said:

Being in charge during the break up of the union must be career ending for the PM surely?

There was an opinion poll at the weekend (or one before, unfortunately I can't find it) that suggested that the public did not feel that it was a resignation issue.

You could argue that the blame lies more with Blair (for allowing devolution) and Brown and Miliband (for making Labour so unappealing to Scottish voters that the SNP were able to form a government).

[AstonZagato]

• Fewer Labour MPs
• Relocation of public sector workers to rUK
• Relocation of Scottish banks to UK
• Relocation of shipbuilding
• Redirecting Barnett payments to NI, Wales and NE
• Businesses looking to relocate to a bigger market flooding into Northern England

I am starting to hope that we do see a Yes. Great for the rUK.

[Zod]

el stovey said:

Moonhawk said:

McWigglebum4th said:

You think they will listen?

Doudtful

Any government perceived as pandering to iScotland will likely be out at the next election - there is enough bad feeling over this issue to ensure that IMO.

The election is in 2015, if Scotland votes yes, will they be allowed to vote in that election? If they vote and Labour win, will there be another general election after the actual break up? It will take years to sort out the mess. I doubt any government in Westminster will come out of it well.

Being in charge during the break up of the union must be career ending for the PM surely?

I raised the former question weeks ago. If Labour wins the election an dits majority is assured only becasue of its Scottish MPs, then it cannot be right for Labour to get to govern until the Scottish MPs get kicked out less than a year after the election. Surely if Scotland votes for economic suicide, then the May election has to exclude Scotland.

As for the second question, I cannot see how Cameron can possibly be blamed if the Scots decide to spli off into their fantasy future.

[McWigglebum4th]

ralphrj said:

There was an opinion poll at the weekend (or one before, unfortunately I can't find it) that suggested that the public did not feel that it was a resignation issue.

You could argue that the blame lies more with Blair (for allowing devolution) and Brown and Miliband (for making Labour so unappealing to Scottish voters that the SNP were able to form a government).

Also there is a growing feeling the only people that would be sad to see the union go is scots with an IQ higher then a bath sponge

[Einion Yrth]

McWigglebum4th said:

Also there is a growing feeling the only people that would be sad to see the union go is scots with an IQ higher then a bath sponge

I would be sad to see the end of the union, but if it turns out that the majority of Scots actually have an I.Q. lower than the cited bath sponge then I must assume that rUK would be better off without them.

[Moonhawk]

AstonZagato said:

* Fewer Labour MPs

• Relocation of public sector workers to rUK
• Relocation of Scottish banks to UK
• Relocation of shipbuilding
• Redirecting Barnett payments to NI, Wales and NE
• Businesses looking to relocate to a bigger market flooding into Northern England

I am starting to hope that we do see a Yes. Great for the rUK.

The icing on the cake for rUK is that the oil may not get split geographically either (if existing precedents play out). rUK may get all of the above benefits - and get to keep 90% of the oil revenues on existing finds too.

[AstonZagato]

Zod said:

I raised the former question weeks ago. If Labour wins the election an dits majority is assured only becasue of its Scottish MPs, then it cannot be right for Labour to get to govern until the Scottish MPs get kicked out less than a year after the election. Surely if Scotland votes for economic suicide, then the May election has to exclude Scotland.

I don't think it would be right or honourable to disenfranchise the Scots before independence (even if it were for just a year). I also doubt that it would pass parliament - despite the "Wastemonster" gibes, it takes its role as representing the people seriously. Undermining that principle would be dangerous.

[barryrs]

Moonhawk said:

The icing on the cake for rUK is that the oil may not get split geographically either (if existing precedents play out). rUK may get all of the above benefits - and get to keep 90% of the oil revenues on existing finds too.

One of the points that i find most amusing about Yes voters is that they refuse to accept this to be the case and immediately crow about vast new found reserves.

The announcement of the finding of those reserves is really not a good thing for the SNP and one "could" suggest that there has been a push to identify the reserves prior to independence by the UK government.

[Nick Grant]

AstonZagato said:

Great for the rUK.

Wait until you see UK/rUK torn apart in the Euro referendum it is the most unplesent experience I can assure you, regardless of the outcome.

[Garvin]

Having now read and listened to the arguments from both sides, including the televised debates, I have come to the conclusion that the yes supporters are driven purely by emotion on this very important issue. The land of milk and honey vision put toward by the yes campaign is so weak, wish washy and based on a 'hope' that, with a yes vote, rUK and the EU will just accede to iScotland demands no sensible, right minded individual can possibly believe it. Therefore I am now convinced that those supporting the yes campaign are willing to suffer the inevitable financial consequences just to obtain independence . . . . . . even if that independence is really no such thing with no control over currency.

This is why rational, logical argument has little effect on them and, quite frankly, it is a fruitless exercise to keep putting these arguments to them.

Despite the rUK position on currency union being made abundantly clear the yes campaign merely respond that it'll be all right on the night using Sterling with no control over it.

Despite the EU position on Scotland being made abundantly clear the yes campaign merely respond that the EU doesn't really mean it and will have no option but to allow iScotland a special 'pragmatic' solution.

Despite the yes campaign position on removal of nuclear weapons being made abundantly clear and that they consider them the work of the devil they are quite happy to join NATO and shelter under its nuclear umbrella.

Rarely, even amongst the most outrageous politicians, have I witnessed such arrogance, narrow mindedness and hypocrisy.

To be clear if the yes vote carry it then I have no problem at all with Scotland being granted independence except that I object to rUK having to pick up the bill for it. However, if Scotland want independence then they must pay for it and accept that for the foreseeable future they will struggle. I have sympathy for the no voters who will be dragged into this but that's democracy for you!

[Moonhawk]

barryrs said:

The announcement of the finding of those reserves is really not a good thing for the SNP and one "could" suggest that there has been a push to identify the reserves prior to independence by the UK government.

Indeed - it was only a few weeks back that it was suggested that there was a Westminster conspiracy to keep data regarding vast new reserves in the Claire field a secret until after the referendum.

However based on existing precedents - it would be more beneficial to make them public before the referendum/independence - because any existing discoveries are likely to be split per capita. It makes no sense to keep such discoveries secret as it would only lead to question marks when you attempt to lay a claim on them.

The more oil is found in the north sea whist the UK remains intact - the better for the rUK going forward.

[Edinburger]

Spitfire2 said:

Welshbeef said:

Well well

Just in the Sky news now Oiil Rhen (European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn ) has submitted a formal letter from the EU to Scotland re The vote


Basically it clarifies IF Scotland voted Yes and used the Sterlingisation "plan b" entry to the EU would not be possible they have to use their own currency have their own central bank.



So voting Yes is a 100% guarantee of EU exit.




Interesting

More interesting, is how the FORMER monetery affairs commissioner Olli Rehn who STOOD DOWN IN JULY could submit a FORMAL LETTER FROM THE EU

Actually, using the pound without a currency union would be prohibited under European Treaty law. Iceland and Montenegro had their EU applications rejected because they didn't have their own stable monetary authorities.

Such a shame our representatives at Westminster wouldn't ask questions our behalf... as I said two or three years ago on this htread.

[Edinburger]

confused_buyer said:

Grumfutock said:

No doubt it will be a Tory/English plot to prevent them getting their god given freedom.

As is the other leaked news that Lloyds Group will be moving to England. No surprise really as they're mainly London based anyway but it will mean that what is left of Bank of Scotland will officially be English.

Calm down, calm down. Those are just contingency plans.

What Lloyds actually said was that they could move south if Scots vote for independence. They're considering having the group's registered office in London, with Bank of Scotland operating from Edinburgh as a foreign division of the business.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/02/uk-lloyds...