Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 5
Discussion
Edinburger said:
toppstuff said:
It must be said - given that in the UK the Gov guarantees the first £85000 of your money and in Scotland there is no such scheme, there is no harm in moving it out now. At least you can bring it back to Scotland once / if they sort it out, of course assuming the vote is Yes. It will probably still be No.. but it does no harm to make plans.
Woah!!! You're talking about the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and that covers deposits to £85K - per deposit (defined as per institution).Scotland is covered by this at the moment and certainly at least until the date of independence.
But for crying out loud, what a lot of scaremongering I've just read from you lot! Get a grip there will be no run on banks and you don't need to buy bullion gold. Dear of hear.
1. Please describe to me in detail the compensation scheme planned by the Scottish Government.
2. Given that Scotland apparently intends to walk away from its debts, tell me how it can prevent the international financial system from charging Scotland more interest for its loans. Given that Scotland will therefore have a lower credit rating ( maybe none at all - Argentina is trying to renege on its debts and see how that is panning out ) give me an assurance that the Scottish financial system will actually be able to stand these tests.
Or I can even make it easy for you. Just show the stress-test modelling and scenario analysis the SNP's noble academics have done to model these possible scenarios. Please do post them up here for all to read.
If a toilet paper company was going to move to a country using a different currency, they would do some modelling of the impact of different scenarios. The SNP are trying to create a country and they have not done a single piece of modelling. None at all.
If it was not so terrifyingly incompetent, it would be hilarious.
Given the idiots in charge, moving your money would be a very wise move. Hell, even the Scottish financial institutions themselves are doing it. London office space is right now being sized up by Scottish institutions.
Be careful what you wish for. And if you think this is scaremongering, it is nothing compared to the reality of what could happen.
A.J.M said:
I'm glad my cash is in Nationwide.
One of those scummy English Tory b
d banks. 
Is the co-op one as well? As I've a decently sized portfolio with them
Both British institutions. Safe.One of those scummy English Tory b
d banks. Is the co-op one as well? As I've a decently sized portfolio with them
Scottish Institutions will be an unknown quantity if the vote is Yes. It will probably be OK though. We don't know that, they haven't said anything remotely factual or sensible about the currency so far. Swinney has also confirmed that they have not done any modelling. And they may renege on their debts. And they've also said that they are going to both borrow a s
t load of money because they don't have enough, while at the same time being able to put some other mystical money away into a petroleum fund like the Norwegians. It all makes sense. Really, It does. It isn't inconsistent or half-baked at all. I'm sure your money is safe with these people. They know how to run a tight ship. Look at their government buildings, the trams ! All really well run projects. Lots of skill. Lots of skill. Nothing to worry about at all.... 
Nutters.
That's fine then.
I'm getting good returns on the co-op one so happy not to move it.
As for the rest, it's staggering.
However, I'll find out on the 15th if I can head off to Canada so I'm no longer that bothered.
It could be fun to watch the country vanish up its own kilt wearing arse within a decade.
I'm getting good returns on the co-op one so happy not to move it.
As for the rest, it's staggering.
However, I'll find out on the 15th if I can head off to Canada so I'm no longer that bothered.
It could be fun to watch the country vanish up its own kilt wearing arse within a decade.
Wasn't capital flight a feature do the last Canadian referendum because on the run up it looked like it would succeed?
In the event it didn't ( the majority in favor of yes in the opinion poles turned out to be a minority at actual voting) but the damage was done to people's confidence.
I'll check back into what I was reading, try and find the source again. D
In any event human behavior will lead to capital flight (whether there is an actual need to or not) if the people merely perceive their is a risk.
As we have seen in this referendum, facts are of no concern, it's about perceptions, beliefs, faith and confirmation bias.
In the event it didn't ( the majority in favor of yes in the opinion poles turned out to be a minority at actual voting) but the damage was done to people's confidence.
I'll check back into what I was reading, try and find the source again. D
In any event human behavior will lead to capital flight (whether there is an actual need to or not) if the people merely perceive their is a risk.
As we have seen in this referendum, facts are of no concern, it's about perceptions, beliefs, faith and confirmation bias.
Edinburger said:
. . . . . . Get a grip there will be no run on banks and you don't need to buy bullion gold. Dear of hear.
Those hedging their bets at this stage could be seen as the ones who are 'getting a grip'. Nothing to be lost by taking prudent action now! Those who continue to have their heads firmly stuffed up their rear ends over all this may just get a nasty shock - the SNP's plans for iScotland's budget, finance and currency can hardly be described as confidence boosting now can they?steveatesh said:
In the event it didn't ( the majority in favor of yes in the opinion poles turned out to be a minority at actual voting) but the damage was done to people's confidence.
Indeed - the last poll before the election showed Yes leading at 47% to 41% with 12% undecided.If we assume people voted the same way as the opinion polls indicated and the vote was decided by the undecideds - it means that less than 1/4 of undecided voters swung towards a Yes.
I'd say that undecided voters are probably more likely to vote no. If they haven't made their mind up whether the gamble is worth it by polling day - then the safe option would be to vote no. At least you know what you are getting by taking the status quo option.
If this referendum goes the same way - it'll be at least a 55-45 win for No based on the latest opinion poll result.
Even if the opinion polls continue to narrow or even flip before the 18th - Yes would still need to convince a sizeable percentage of undecided voters to secure victory.
Edited by Moonhawk on Thursday 4th September 18:24
Edinburger said:
Woah!!! You're talking about the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and that covers deposits to £85K - per deposit (defined as per institution).
Scotland is covered by this at the moment and certainly at least until the date of independence.
But for crying out loud, what a lot of scaremongering I've just read from you lot! Get a grip there will be no run on banks and you don't need to buy bullion gold. Dear of hear.
When will independence be?Scotland is covered by this at the moment and certainly at least until the date of independence.
But for crying out loud, what a lot of scaremongering I've just read from you lot! Get a grip there will be no run on banks and you don't need to buy bullion gold. Dear of hear.
The great one says 2016
What if Westminster turns round and says nope
You are out by christmas
Makes the election far simpler in 2015
And you thing Alex will turn down the chance to be king for a year?
Fittster said:
Funk said:
Slow clap for the SNP for creating this chaos.
What chaos are you experiencing?Edinburger said:
Woah!!! You're talking about the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and that covers deposits to £85K - per deposit (defined as per institution).
Scotland is covered by this at the moment and certainly at least until the date of independence.
But for crying out loud, what a lot of scaremongering I've just read from you lot! Get a grip there will be no run on banks and you don't need to buy bullion gold. Dear of hear.
Ah, but on the flip side you will know that there is only 18 months left before that guarantee expires. Given what we already know there is a significant possibility of capital flight, which means that leading up to independence some form of capital control will be necessary otherwise Scotland will not be able to maintain itself in a currency union with the UK, formal or otherwise. So it's absolutely correct to start getting worried about it now. Scotland is covered by this at the moment and certainly at least until the date of independence.
But for crying out loud, what a lot of scaremongering I've just read from you lot! Get a grip there will be no run on banks and you don't need to buy bullion gold. Dear of hear.
fblm said:
McWigglebum4th said:
When will independence be?
Before the next general election. Has to be. No way Scotland can have seats in Westminster after a Yes vote.jamiebae said:
Pound falling against other currencies, businesses holding off on investment in Scotland, Scottish based businesses planning moves away (some will go even if the result is a no because of the uncertainty of Devo-Max)...
I'm sure some economist somewhere will calculate what this has cost in terms of lost growth, uncertainty, lost investment, devalued currency etc - i'm sure it'll run to £billions.Just what we need when the country is trying to drag itself out of the deepest recession in history - a bunch of nats trying to divide us to further their own political aspirations and costing us money we can ill afford in the process.
Do Yes voters really think iScotland will be better under such people........wasn't it people selling out their own country to further their own political and financial ends the reason Scotland ended up in the union in the first place.
davepoth said:
Even Alex "Everything's great" Salmond thinks it will take 18 months.
He is only saying that because this term of the Scottish Parliament runs for another 18 months. He knows that unless he has a clear majority (and at the moment he has a majority of 1) he won't be able to pass a bill to declare Independence. Therefore, in the event of a Yes vote he will do anything to get it to a vote before the next Scottish election.After the disaster than was Cyprus, why would anybody in rUK choose to keep their money in Scotland. I would expect on the day after an Yes vote banks would be publishing their relocation plans. I think anything with the name Scotland attached is likely to be toxic south of the border, particularly as the exit negotiation are going to be plastered all over the media. The demands coming from SNP HQ are going to piss a whole lot of people off, particularly given their habit of bad mouthing everybody who dares disagree with them. Their business plan seems to be irritate your largest export market - what absolute idiots.
ralphrj said:
davepoth said:
Even Alex "Everything's great" Salmond thinks it will take 18 months.
He is only saying that because this term of the Scottish Parliament runs for another 18 months. He knows that unless he has a clear majority (and at the moment he has a majority of 1) he won't be able to pass a bill to declare Independence. Therefore, in the event of a Yes vote he will do anything to get it to a vote before the next Scottish election.The below was posted on Facebook today by a Scottish businessman who owns several well known businesses and hotels in Gretna.
It is probably one of the most sensible things I have seen written on Facebook about the matter:
"Well it's nearly here! The Referendum that could lead to Scotland divorcing from the UK. I am not a politician. I am a born and bred Scot living and working here and typing this on his phone from his bath. Sorry about the last bit.
Let's cut through the bullst, the scaremongering (on both sides) and the dream selling. This is important. For our children's grandchildren and beyond.
All proud Scots want what is best for Scotland, so let's start by agreeing that on this we can agree.
Let's also agree that too many policies for too many years were 'made in London' and did not address Scotland's specific needs.
But we now have a Scottish Parliament and all parties agree that it will get more powers whatever the outcome. I believe that. Mr Salmond and SNP do deserve credit for getting Scotland's voice heard better than ever before in my lifetime. But the fact is that with our own parliament in place we can't keep blaming everything on Westminster. That's out of date. We already have many independent powers, with more to come. To move from a wish to secure these extra powers, to filing for full divorce, cannot be the right thing for Scotland.
We have a population about the size of Yorkshire's but over a much greater land mass to service with roads, small schools, hospitals etc. Our population is ageing faster than UK with a big pensions challenge ahead with a lot of gold plated public sector pensions in there. We have a relatively small tax base and we rely heavily on the public sector for employment and on one commodity.
Oil and gas is a valuable resource. The most optimistic forecast gives us 30 or 40 more years on the dipstick, the blink of an eye in the life of a nation. Yes, it may see today's politicians out, but they will not be around to deal with 'life after oil.' During that time the price may vary greatly. Up or down. We have no control.
Basing a 400 year decision on a 40 year resource of which we do not control the price does not make good sense. Short term-ism on a grand scale. It will take one hell of lot of wind and whisky to replace it.
The form of 'independence' that says 'We would like to share the pound in a formal union and the Bank of England can carry on setting the interest rates' defeats one of the main claimed benefits of independence..controlling one's own future. Interest rates would be set in a country made foreign by a yes vote, a country that no longer had any political or other motive for considering the interests of the 'independent' country north of the border no longer part of UK. This could really hurt us. This is the version of 'independence' that Mr Salmond claims to want for us. I just don't get it.
Talking of banks, if we were to divorce from UK, we would have no lender of last resort. We don't need long memories to sicken ourselves with the mess of the so called 'financial crisis'. I have another set of words for it: greed, lies, arrogance and more greed. But the fact is that our own Scottish institutions had their snouts in the trough along with the best of them and together they nearly brought the country to its knees. IF we had been independent at that time, Scotland Plc would have been bust. The Scottish taxpayer could not have underwritten the debt. We needed the financial strength of the Bank of England and the UK taxpayer to bail out RBS and others. It is a fool that believes that humans really learn from past mistakes... They go right out there and make all their own new ones. Would we like to go to Europe for our bail out if it were needed in the future. Greece is not having fun.
It strikes me as a peculiar form of 'independence' that wants to divorce from England, while at the same time get closer to Brussels. If one of the main complaints is feeling controlled by an unelected government, do we really want to swap London for Brussels? It seems to me that there is a hefty dose of 'anti English' being confused and dressed up as pro-independence. Pre- divorce proceedings are messy, and it saddens me that Scotland is going through its own version, whatever the outcome, with our three other partners in rest of UK.
I am a passionately proud Scot. Born here, schooled here. I've spent my life working here, investing in and promoting Scotland both in UK and abroad, and doing my best to provide good employment here. My children were born here and are schooling here. My point is, don't try and tell me that believing that being in a BETTER version of UK, which we can have, and staying part of the family with our Welsh, Irish and English friends somehow makes me un-patriotic or less Scottish. Please.
I know some, perhaps many will disagree with what I say. I respect your right to do so. But to those that do in turn I say respect my right and those that agree with me when I say with my heart and my head, let's stay together and work hard together to make Scotland an even greater part of Great Britain.
Over and out. Bath cold"
It is probably one of the most sensible things I have seen written on Facebook about the matter:
"Well it's nearly here! The Referendum that could lead to Scotland divorcing from the UK. I am not a politician. I am a born and bred Scot living and working here and typing this on his phone from his bath. Sorry about the last bit.
Let's cut through the bulls
t, the scaremongering (on both sides) and the dream selling. This is important. For our children's grandchildren and beyond.All proud Scots want what is best for Scotland, so let's start by agreeing that on this we can agree.
Let's also agree that too many policies for too many years were 'made in London' and did not address Scotland's specific needs.
But we now have a Scottish Parliament and all parties agree that it will get more powers whatever the outcome. I believe that. Mr Salmond and SNP do deserve credit for getting Scotland's voice heard better than ever before in my lifetime. But the fact is that with our own parliament in place we can't keep blaming everything on Westminster. That's out of date. We already have many independent powers, with more to come. To move from a wish to secure these extra powers, to filing for full divorce, cannot be the right thing for Scotland.
We have a population about the size of Yorkshire's but over a much greater land mass to service with roads, small schools, hospitals etc. Our population is ageing faster than UK with a big pensions challenge ahead with a lot of gold plated public sector pensions in there. We have a relatively small tax base and we rely heavily on the public sector for employment and on one commodity.
Oil and gas is a valuable resource. The most optimistic forecast gives us 30 or 40 more years on the dipstick, the blink of an eye in the life of a nation. Yes, it may see today's politicians out, but they will not be around to deal with 'life after oil.' During that time the price may vary greatly. Up or down. We have no control.
Basing a 400 year decision on a 40 year resource of which we do not control the price does not make good sense. Short term-ism on a grand scale. It will take one hell of lot of wind and whisky to replace it.
The form of 'independence' that says 'We would like to share the pound in a formal union and the Bank of England can carry on setting the interest rates' defeats one of the main claimed benefits of independence..controlling one's own future. Interest rates would be set in a country made foreign by a yes vote, a country that no longer had any political or other motive for considering the interests of the 'independent' country north of the border no longer part of UK. This could really hurt us. This is the version of 'independence' that Mr Salmond claims to want for us. I just don't get it.
Talking of banks, if we were to divorce from UK, we would have no lender of last resort. We don't need long memories to sicken ourselves with the mess of the so called 'financial crisis'. I have another set of words for it: greed, lies, arrogance and more greed. But the fact is that our own Scottish institutions had their snouts in the trough along with the best of them and together they nearly brought the country to its knees. IF we had been independent at that time, Scotland Plc would have been bust. The Scottish taxpayer could not have underwritten the debt. We needed the financial strength of the Bank of England and the UK taxpayer to bail out RBS and others. It is a fool that believes that humans really learn from past mistakes... They go right out there and make all their own new ones. Would we like to go to Europe for our bail out if it were needed in the future. Greece is not having fun.
It strikes me as a peculiar form of 'independence' that wants to divorce from England, while at the same time get closer to Brussels. If one of the main complaints is feeling controlled by an unelected government, do we really want to swap London for Brussels? It seems to me that there is a hefty dose of 'anti English' being confused and dressed up as pro-independence. Pre- divorce proceedings are messy, and it saddens me that Scotland is going through its own version, whatever the outcome, with our three other partners in rest of UK.
I am a passionately proud Scot. Born here, schooled here. I've spent my life working here, investing in and promoting Scotland both in UK and abroad, and doing my best to provide good employment here. My children were born here and are schooling here. My point is, don't try and tell me that believing that being in a BETTER version of UK, which we can have, and staying part of the family with our Welsh, Irish and English friends somehow makes me un-patriotic or less Scottish. Please.
I know some, perhaps many will disagree with what I say. I respect your right to do so. But to those that do in turn I say respect my right and those that agree with me when I say with my heart and my head, let's stay together and work hard together to make Scotland an even greater part of Great Britain.
Over and out. Bath cold"
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