ebola, anyone else mildly terrified?

ebola, anyone else mildly terrified?

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Rocksteadyeddie

7,971 posts

226 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
quotequote all
If you look at all the outbreaks over the years the death rate is about 65% - not great but not 90% either. First World healthcare will help a lot if it makes it this far.

It is not that much of a problem, even in the countries effected. Take Sierra Leonne. Deaths from Ebola since the beginning of April c200. Deaths from Malaria c 4000. Deaths on the roads in the UK over the same period c1000. So it's not the end of the World as we know it.

Would love to have been a fly on the wall at the EMERGENCY Cobra meeting this morning:

"Thanks for coming chaps. Now, this Ebola, it's bad right?"

"Well yes, in the unlikely event it made it to the UK it would probably kill a few people"

"Ok. What should we do about it?"

"Well, there's not a lot we can do. Wait and see mainly. Oh, and keep a watching brief for zombies stumbling off flights from Africa, gobbing blood and vommiting everywhere. That's a sign"

"Good, good. Anything else? No? Right, meeting adjourned. I'll crack on with the press briefing about "a state of heighened alert" and "all preparedness". Any of those bacon sarnies left?"

Bill

52,479 posts

254 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
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vescaegg said:
Id imagine this is spot on. Imagine some of the hospitals where it is currently spreading. Then compare them to some of ours with our sterile clean rooms etc. Id bet if it did get here, it wouldnt get out of a hospital.
That and bagging the bodies up for cremation rather than letting the relatives have a last cuddle.

Compare that with flu: 300 people potentially infected and incubating, passing bugs for a couple of days before the initial vector gets symptoms. Those 300 incubating have infected 10+ people each before we're even aware there's a problem. And those 3000+ have started infecting people... If as few as 1% die we have more fatalities within a fortnight than this whole Ebola outbreak.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
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Du1point8 said:
Then again it also depends on which strain it is of the 4... weakest one usually is 50%, most deadly is 90%.
Current outbreak looks to be a new strain, genetically close to the most lethal strain (Zaire) but not the same.

http://www.globalhealthminders.dk/wp-content/uploa...

vescaegg

25,489 posts

166 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
quotequote all
Rocksteadyeddie said:
If you look at all the outbreaks over the years the death rate is about 65% - not great but not 90% either. First World healthcare will help a lot if it makes it this far.

It is not that much of a problem, even in the countries effected. Take Sierra Leonne. Deaths from Ebola since the beginning of April c200. Deaths from Malaria c 4000. Deaths on the roads in the UK over the same period c1000. So it's not the end of the World as we know it.

Would love to have been a fly on the wall at the EMERGENCY Cobra meeting this morning:

"Thanks for coming chaps. Now, this Ebola, it's bad right?"

"Well yes, in the unlikely event it made it to the UK it would probably kill a few people"

"Ok. What should we do about it?"

"Well, there's not a lot we can do. Wait and see mainly. Oh, and keep a watching brief for zombies stumbling off flights from Africa, gobbing blood and vommiting everywhere. That's a sign"

"Good, good. Anything else? No? Right, meeting adjourned. I'll crack on with the press briefing about "a state of heighened alert" and "all preparedness". Any of those bacon sarnies left?"
hehe

I think (and hope...) its a big fuss over nothing. There have only ever been around 2500 deaths from ebola since 1976 when it first was diagnosed. 1.1million children die of pneumonia every year! 1.1MILLION! 100,000 die of cholera and 30,000 die from yellow fever each year too. Ebola really is small fry.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
quotequote all
Ebola isn't our Captain Trips, not remotely, but it is something which from a purely self interested position we need to monitor. The last virus to emerge from Africa and crawl around the world was HIV, which has been a major public health issue in the West ever since. Ebola does not currently have characteristics which make it particularly risky - it's not insidious like HIV, by the time you are seriously contagious you are noticeably ill, and it incapacitates and kills you pretty quickly. It's not at home in humans and it isn't very good at infecting us nor at keeping us alive and contagious. Diseases do evolve, though. If Ebola happens to evolve a better strategy, it could become a serious problem. We in the West are not accustomed to being cut down by transmissible disease, and it scares the crap out of us.

Bill

52,479 posts

254 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
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AIDS has killed 36million people in total (WHO figures.) in a more populated world, the 1918 flu epidemic alone killed an estimated 50million.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
quotequote all
Sure - but it's still a problem, and illustrates that we can't just ignore emerging viruses. There's no need to panic, but we do need to monitor and be prepared, and that applies to new flu strains at least as much as it does to haemorrhagic fevers.

Bill

52,479 posts

254 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
quotequote all
Absolutely. At a governmental level it's a threat, but for individuals there are a wide range of bugs that you're far more likely to catch.

Rocksteadyeddie

7,971 posts

226 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
quotequote all
Interesting to look back at bird flu. It "only" killed about 400 people worldwide. The death rate for those who contract it is similar to Ebola at about 60%. And it is transmited in the air. So yes let's be awake to Ebola (And I certainly wouldn't want to contract it) but it's an awful long way from being a pressing issue.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Wednesday 30th July 2014
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Private pharmaceutical companies are not going to do research on viruses needing level 4 biosecurity without a bloody good profit motive. Poor Africans have no money. Aid charities have other medical issues with higher impact to prioritise. There is research going on into vaccines and antivirals, but it's government funded and driven more by bioterrorism concerns than worries about natural outbreaks.

vescaegg

25,489 posts

166 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
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If accurate is say this is a hell of a lot worse for the world (perhaps not Britain yet though).

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/health-28569966

nonuts

15,855 posts

228 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
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vescaegg said:
The W.H.O website has a good guide to it and obviously dont need to sensationalise to try and scare people like the papers and news websites do.

There have been many outbreaks of Ebola with victims in the hundreds. All generally in West or Central Africa. I dont see why people are suddenly so scared itll jump this time. There is currently only 200 more cases than the outbreak in 2000 when (as far as I remember) nothing further happened....

The 90% death rate doesnt seem accurate either. It CAN be up to that but for example in 2000 it was only 53%


http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en...
I'm not sure why you're not at least mildly concerned, the whole reason most people are concerned is that normally Ebola doesn't spread from the small remote towns where it's very good at killing people and not spreading. This time it has spread out of the remote areas into large cities. It's also the largest outbreak in recorded history by some margin affecting an ever larger area.

Here is the wiki link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbrea...
Which currently shows 1323 cases, with the next largest only being 425, so why do you say it's only 200 more cases than in 2000, it's not it's more like 900 more or 3 times as big.

Or rather than wiki, if you take the CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/resources/outbreaks.h...
They currently say up to 1201 cases, with 814 cases that have been verified as Ebola with 672 deaths. That is a death rate between 56% and 82% if you just take the confirmed cases.

Rocksteadyeddie

7,971 posts

226 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
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My stepdaughter returned from Sierra Leonne yesterday. Thank goodness she picked up nothing worse than a summer sniffle and a bit of a cough when she was there hehe

She made several interesting observations:

1) The official stats significantly underestimate her perception of the extent of the outbreak on the ground - geogrpaphically and, by extension, number of infections.
2) Police/military are severely restricting movement of people between towns/villages - even taking of peoples temperatures at road blocks as well as the usual bribes.
3) There is a widespread education and public health effort e.g. providing anti-bacterial handwash, lots of posters up etc
4) The country is not far from being closed down - hence she returned early
5) She was astounded that nary an eyebrow was raised when she landed at Gatwick yesterday having spent almost two weeks in rural Sierra Leonne

I suspect it is simply time before we see a case of Ebola in Europe. At which point all flights with West Africa will be severed, and they will be left to get through it as best as they can. The chance of it getting hold in Europe is slim to zero but that won't stop a media frenzy erupting.

Hoofy

76,253 posts

281 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
quotequote all
Rocksteadyeddie said:
2) Police/military are severely restricting movement of people between towns/villages - even taking of peoples temperatures at road blocks as well as the usual bribes.
"I'm sorry, but you've got a killer infection. You cannot proc..."
"Here's 5p."
"Ta. On your way. Have a nice day."

Scary.

Bill

52,479 posts

254 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
quotequote all
Rocksteadyeddie said:
I suspect it is simply time before we see a case of Ebola in Europe. At which point all flights with West Africa will be severed, and they will be left to get through it as best as they can. The chance of it getting hold in Europe is slim to zero but that won't stop a media frenzy erupting.
There was a case in the UK 18 months ago...

irocfan

40,153 posts

189 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
quotequote all
all we need now for the perfect DM storm is for some Islamic radical to deliberately get himself infected......

Lost soul

8,712 posts

181 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
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otolith said:
Ebola isn't our Captain Trips,
You have just reminded me that I want to re read that book smile

fido

16,752 posts

254 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
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irocfan said:
all we need now for the perfect DM storm is for some Islamic radical to deliberately get himself infected......
I don't think even one of those nutjobs is going to do that for any number of virgins .. ?

Rocksteadyeddie

7,971 posts

226 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
quotequote all
fido said:
irocfan said:
all we need now for the perfect DM storm is for some Islamic radical to deliberately get himself infected......
I don't think even one of those nutjobs is going to do that for any number of virgins .. ?
If you want to kill a lot of people Ebola is a particular painful and ineffective way of doing so.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Thursday 31st July 2014
quotequote all
Lost soul said:
otolith said:
Ebola isn't our Captain Trips,
You have just reminded me that I want to re read that book smile
Re-read it fairly recently, great book!