ebola, anyone else mildly terrified?
Discussion
Mr Whippy said:
I'm merely responding 'coldly' to the graph. Flu doesn't have a graph of deaths vs time going up exponentially. It's always been high and the risk factors and ways we can alleviate it's impacts are part of our daily lives.
Dave
Flu killed around 5% of the world population in less than 18 months in 1918/1919. How exponential do you imagine that would be?Dave
Bill said:
And the flu deaths graph matches the Ebola one, the difference being the scale. If you put the two together you wouldn't notice the Ebola one.
Yup, in the time the current ebola outbreak has so far spread, flu had killed at least around 10-15 million, and had another 70 million to go. Ebola has killed less than 7,000.eldar said:
Bill said:
And the flu deaths graph matches the Ebola one, the difference being the scale. If you put the two together you wouldn't notice the Ebola one.
Yup, in the time the current ebola outbreak has so far spread, flu had killed at least around 10-15 million, and had another 70 million to go. Ebola has killed less than 7,000.
The Wiki page reckons 50-100 million died (3-5% of the world population at the time) out of 500million infected.eldar said:
Bill said:
And the flu deaths graph matches the Ebola one, the difference being the scale. If you put the two together you wouldn't notice the Ebola one.
Yup, in the time the current ebola outbreak has so far spread, flu had killed at least around 10-15 million, and had another 70 million to go. Ebola has killed less than 7,000.You can't argue with the numbers at hand.
Doubling every month so far, suggests millions by next Christmas.
If it changes, great. I'd absolutely LOVE to be wrong. But there is no arguing with the graph.
I wonder how many people said at 1 month into the flu epidemic that it wasn't that bad because look, 2% mortality. Only a few thousand dead. It's nothing.
Dave
Snoggledog said:
However there are slight differences in the mortality rates of Influenza and Ebola. According to the font of all wisdom that's wikipedia the mortality rate for the 1918 flu pandemic was 2%. The CDC currently reckon that the mortality rate for Ebola is 50% whilst the WHO reckon it could be as high as 70%.
As with all diseases the numbers will shoot up as awareness and diagnosis are improved, however this also leads to better control of the spread of the infection. As of yet the only cases outwith Africa were from those dealing directly with those infected, and all cases (we know of) were contained.Aid i feel won't help much as diagnosis is fairly simple and most African nations aren't adequately trained to do much past containment (hence all the foreign medical staff). Proper awareness and focus on reducing the conditions that Ebola thrives in, or research into a possible cure, which i believe there are a few experimental drugs floating about the now.
Unfortunately what it boils down to is a infectious disease with a high mortality rate, in a third world nation. The worst possible mix.
In the end all the problems come down to the human element.
No matter what your processes and procedures are, it's irrational human behaviour that grips people and makes things not so clear cut.
It is very sad indeed. It must be horrible to live in these places and get symptoms. Questioning the reality, not knowing whether to be with your family or not. Your family not wanting to say anything in case they get split up or taken away from each other.
Lets just hope Western people are totally rational in the face of a 33% or so mortality rate virus like most around here seem to think! Then at least our average procedures can work to stop any spreading here.
Dave
No matter what your processes and procedures are, it's irrational human behaviour that grips people and makes things not so clear cut.
It is very sad indeed. It must be horrible to live in these places and get symptoms. Questioning the reality, not knowing whether to be with your family or not. Your family not wanting to say anything in case they get split up or taken away from each other.
Lets just hope Western people are totally rational in the face of a 33% or so mortality rate virus like most around here seem to think! Then at least our average procedures can work to stop any spreading here.
Dave
Yeah, i can imagine if it gets to the UK & 30 people got secondary infections. The gov would say don't panic. Then sainsbury would have no rice or tinned goods and the trains would be empty. Lol
I think the most worrying thing is those graphs only include official cases that turn up at infection centres. How many more have been infected or died off the books? Are the borders closed with neighbouring countries?
I think the most worrying thing is those graphs only include official cases that turn up at infection centres. How many more have been infected or died off the books? Are the borders closed with neighbouring countries?
Edinburger said:
Just saw this on the news - it's all happening in Glasgow this Christmas! :-( Confirmed case, isolated quickly. Hopefully nobody else has been in contact with body fluid.
http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Ebola-case-1414.a...
http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Ebola-case-1414.a...
sjabrown said:
Confirmed case, isolated quickly. Hopefully nobody else has been in contact with body fluid.
http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Ebola-case-1414.a...
How did the worker come into contact with fluid?http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Ebola-case-1414.a...
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff