ebola, anyone else mildly terrified?
Discussion
B17NNS said:
It's a risk. But then you have to put it into context - how much bush meat is eaten in Africa, versus how often someone catches ebola. QuantumTokoloshi said:
This is a very nasty virus.
The average death to infected rate runs at about 57 percent.In Nigeria it is 11 percent.
avian influenza had an average death rate of 60 percent .
I don't see this virus being the great city killer, if it got into the western world i would imagine the death rate would be around 5 percent considering the medical care is much better than Africa.
QuantumTokoloshi said:
An indication of the virulence of this virus is the large number doctors and nurses who have been infected, who should know about infection control and proper protection from the virus.
Jayessgee said:
Absolutely agree. I reckon we don't hear half of it.
The WHO is there so what benefit does it have to unreported, it is already the largest outbreak, so nothing has been sugar coated? In reality, over reporting would get more money invested in it, but would lose long term credibility. I see the WHO as a very secure source of information over the scare mongering the papers like to stir up.just have a look on the WHO website, it gives outbreak updates last was the 6th.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_08_ebola/en/
The Spruce goose said:
The WHO is there so what benefit does it have to unreported, it is already the largest outbreak, so nothing has been sugar coated? In reality, over reporting would get more money invested in it, but would lose long term credibility. I see the WHO as a very secure source of information over the scare mongering the papers like to stir up.
just have a look on the WHO website, it gives outbreak updates last was the 6th.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_08_ebola/en/
Good link, thanks. The stats are definitely interesting. I probably didn't word it very well. I just meant I bet it's absolutely terrifying to actually be out there and we don't see what's going on, over here. You make a good point though, it's probably a moot point, as there's not really anything we can do about it anyway. I've bookmarked that link, so I'll keep going back for updates. just have a look on the WHO website, it gives outbreak updates last was the 6th.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_08_ebola/en/
B17NNS said:
I see what you did there....
Odd there's no mention of the impact on house prices.
The Spruce goose said:
The average death to infected rate runs at about 57 percent.
In Nigeria it is 11 percent.
avian influenza had an average death rate of 60 percent .
I don't see this virus being the great city killer, if it got into the western world i would imagine the death rate would be around 5 percent considering the medical care is much better than Africa.
The question to ask is why has Nigeria got such a low death rate? When it is the same virus as in Liberia? It certainly not because Nigeria has better medical infrastructure. I work in Lagos, and West Africa, so talk from a position of first hand knowledge. It probably has more to do with the inability or unwillingness to report the true numbers.In Nigeria it is 11 percent.
avian influenza had an average death rate of 60 percent .
I don't see this virus being the great city killer, if it got into the western world i would imagine the death rate would be around 5 percent considering the medical care is much better than Africa.
Ebola Zaire has a 50+% death rate, even when treated in first world conditions, although this new drug treatment may hold promise, assuming the NHS can handle a large scale outbreak. The number of isolation wards in the NHS can probably cater for no more that 100 patients countrywide.
This virus gets completely airborne, and it will be on the scale of the black death worldwide, not my words, but the words of the CDC doctor who treated the Congo outbreak.
QuantumTokoloshi said:
This virus gets completely airborne, and it will be on the scale of the black death worldwide, not my words, but the words of the CDC doctor who treated the Congo outbreak.
The virus has never become airborne in all past outbreaks and again this is scare mongering as it doesn't mean it end up that way.In reality any discussion on this outbreak can only judged in 6 months time, but in answer to the originally OP question i still stick to the fact that this is not the 'world killer' that is continuously spouted by the media based on the WHO reporting.
t than this.Interestingly to see if this 'airborne case evolution' which some more hard line new report of turning into the world killer which requires transmission in the air without water, where ebola can transmit in particles in water, coughing etc.
The study found pigs could transmit without direct contact which does seem scary, but the way effects pigs is different, they do not die.
'In pigs, Ebola mainly infects the lungs and airways, which makes them well-suited to spreading the virus through the air. To see if this was possible, Kobinger teamed up with Hana Weingartl from the University of Manitoba. They used nose swabs to infect piglets with Zaire Ebola, then placed them in a room with four cynomolgus macaques. The monkeys lived inside a wire cage within the pig pen, so the two species never made direct contact despite sharing living quarters.
The piglets developed heavier breathing and mild fevers, but were otherwise unharmed by the infection. But the monkeys were not as lucky. After 2 weeks, the pigs had passed the virus to all their neighboring macaques, who developed bloody spots on their chest and limbs and signs of damage in their lungs.
The study shows that the virus can spread without direct contact, but “keep in mind that Ebola is not suddenly an airborne virus, like influenza,” said Kobinger. Instead, the virus could have jumped from pigs to monkeys via small droplets in the air, or larger ones that splashed into the monkeys’ cages when the handlers cleaned the floor of the pigs’ area.'
http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/f...
The study found pigs could transmit without direct contact which does seem scary, but the way effects pigs is different, they do not die.
'In pigs, Ebola mainly infects the lungs and airways, which makes them well-suited to spreading the virus through the air. To see if this was possible, Kobinger teamed up with Hana Weingartl from the University of Manitoba. They used nose swabs to infect piglets with Zaire Ebola, then placed them in a room with four cynomolgus macaques. The monkeys lived inside a wire cage within the pig pen, so the two species never made direct contact despite sharing living quarters.
The piglets developed heavier breathing and mild fevers, but were otherwise unharmed by the infection. But the monkeys were not as lucky. After 2 weeks, the pigs had passed the virus to all their neighboring macaques, who developed bloody spots on their chest and limbs and signs of damage in their lungs.
The study shows that the virus can spread without direct contact, but “keep in mind that Ebola is not suddenly an airborne virus, like influenza,” said Kobinger. Instead, the virus could have jumped from pigs to monkeys via small droplets in the air, or larger ones that splashed into the monkeys’ cages when the handlers cleaned the floor of the pigs’ area.'
http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/f...
Edited by The Spruce goose on Sunday 10th August 12:19
The Spruce goose said:
QuantumTokoloshi said:
This virus gets completely airborne, and it will be on the scale of the black death worldwide, not my words, but the words of the CDC doctor who treated the Congo outbreak.
The virus has never become airborne in all past outbreaks and again this is scare mongering as it doesn't mean it end up that way.In reality any discussion on this outbreak can only judged in 6 months time, but in answer to the originally OP question i still stick to the fact that this is not the 'world killer' that is continuously spouted by the media based on the WHO reporting.
You read the accounts of virologists and epidemiologists who have treated or worked with the virus, they certainly do not think it is scaremongering. The numbers in Lagos will go up hugely, the city cannot even handle the endemic malaria cases never mind an exotic haemorrhagic virus running rife.
QuantumTokoloshi said:
Ebola has never got into a large human population as it has now. It provides ample opportunity to mutate. The one redeeming fact is that the virus does not mutate readily, and has tended to remain stable. This may be because it has been quite isolated before this.
You read the accounts of virologists and epidemiologists who have treated or worked with the virus, they certainly do not think it is scaremongering. The numbers in Lagos will go up hugely, the city cannot even handle the endemic malaria cases never mind an exotic haemorrhagic virus running rife.
I'm not familiar with Liberia but I have spent some time in Nigeria. Lagos is a very chaotic place, if this disease has a chance to spread anywhere Lagos would be it. You read the accounts of virologists and epidemiologists who have treated or worked with the virus, they certainly do not think it is scaremongering. The numbers in Lagos will go up hugely, the city cannot even handle the endemic malaria cases never mind an exotic haemorrhagic virus running rife.
br d said:
QuantumTokoloshi said:
Ebola has never got into a large human population as it has now. It provides ample opportunity to mutate. The one redeeming fact is that the virus does not mutate readily, and has tended to remain stable. This may be because it has been quite isolated before this.
You read the accounts of virologists and epidemiologists who have treated or worked with the virus, they certainly do not think it is scaremongering. The numbers in Lagos will go up hugely, the city cannot even handle the endemic malaria cases never mind an exotic haemorrhagic virus running rife.
I'm not familiar with Liberia but I have spent some time in Nigeria. Lagos is a very chaotic place, if this disease has a chance to spread anywhere Lagos would be it. You read the accounts of virologists and epidemiologists who have treated or worked with the virus, they certainly do not think it is scaremongering. The numbers in Lagos will go up hugely, the city cannot even handle the endemic malaria cases never mind an exotic haemorrhagic virus running rife.
QuantumTokoloshi said:
br d said:
QuantumTokoloshi said:
Ebola has never got into a large human population as it has now. It provides ample opportunity to mutate. The one redeeming fact is that the virus does not mutate readily, and has tended to remain stable. This may be because it has been quite isolated before this.
You read the accounts of virologists and epidemiologists who have treated or worked with the virus, they certainly do not think it is scaremongering. The numbers in Lagos will go up hugely, the city cannot even handle the endemic malaria cases never mind an exotic haemorrhagic virus running rife.
I'm not familiar with Liberia but I have spent some time in Nigeria. Lagos is a very chaotic place, if this disease has a chance to spread anywhere Lagos would be it. You read the accounts of virologists and epidemiologists who have treated or worked with the virus, they certainly do not think it is scaremongering. The numbers in Lagos will go up hugely, the city cannot even handle the endemic malaria cases never mind an exotic haemorrhagic virus running rife.
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