Malaysian Airlines 777 down on Ukraine / Russia Border?

Malaysian Airlines 777 down on Ukraine / Russia Border?

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XJ Flyer

5,526 posts

130 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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greygoose said:
XJ Flyer said:
Stelvio1 said:
Whether 'by mistake' or not they shot it down.

Appeasement already well oiled and underway by France and Germany - love the way their individual economic needs outweigh the EU partnership. United we fall smile
Maybe it's that unlike us Germany and to a lesser extent France both know what the 'results' of a policy of aggression in regards to Russia can lead to.The fact is the settlement reached with Russia at the end of WW2 at Yalta and Potsdam,regarding where western Europe's interests end and Russian ones start,showed the difference between appeasement and diplomacy based on objective thinking.Being that Churchill was no appeaser.

Russia has given more than enough ground in that regard since those agreements.It's now time for the west to start giving some in return.

None of which is the same thing as appeasement in saying that Russia isn't and won't always will be a hostile neighbour that we need to be on our guard against.In which case it's the strategic mutually assured destruction option that's the answer to that and which has kept the peace between Russia and 'the West' through the post war decades.Not the pointless and de stabilising idea of the eastward expansion of the EU and NATO.
You seem to be disregarding the feelings of the people in between Russia and Western Europe, if they want to join the EU then why shouldn't they be allowed to? The world has moved on from the days of the USSR and the Eastern Bloc living in fear.
It's all about the point of view of the Russians.In which case it's former Eastern Bloc and Soviet buffer states joining the EU might have been just about considered as ok.But NATO then also moving in in addition is obviously the issue.Which then leaves the question what's in it for us in firstly paying money that we need for ourselves to subsidise the backward economies of those former soviet/eastern bloc states.In addition to moving NATO's remit Eastwards up to,and in the case of the disputed Eastern Ukraine/Crimea over,the Russian border,which Russia obviously sees as a threat.Thereby making a potential future war more likely not less.

petrolsniffer

2,461 posts

174 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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XJ Flyer said:
It's all about the point of view of the Russians.In which case it's former Eastern Bloc and Soviet buffer states joining the EU might have been just about considered as ok.But NATO then also moving in in addition is obviously the issue.Which then leaves the question what's in it for us in firstly paying money that we need for ourselves to subsidise the backward economies of those former soviet/eastern bloc states.In addition to moving NATO's remit Eastwards up to,and in the case of the disputed Eastern Ukraine/Crimea over,the Russian border,which Russia obviously sees as a threat.Thereby making a potential future war more likely not less.
Maybe if they didn't occupy those states for 40+ years just because thier tanks got to east berlin before anyone else they wouldn't of been so keen to join the eu/nato.They all have large and mostly unwanted ethnic russian populations who says putin wouldn't try his luck destablizing any of these states had they not joined the EU/nato?

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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Looks like our friendly east European "insurgents" just got their hands on a new toy. Shorter legs than the last one though.

9K35 Strela-10 (NATO: SA-13 Gopher), optical/IR short-range SAM. Max range: 5 km. Max intercept altitude: 3,500 m (11,500 ft).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K35_Strela-10




vonuber

17,868 posts

165 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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XJ Flyer said:
It's all about the point of view of the Russians.
No it really isn't. It's all about what the ukrainian people want, which was generally (before russia started getting a bit 1939) about getting rid of the corrupt government and moving towards closer ties with the West.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the estonians for example don't regret one bit joining the eu and nato. It's probably the only thing that has stopped Russia from re-invading them.

Digga

40,320 posts

283 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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skwdenyer said:
As regards the distastefulness (as it were) or otherwise of reporting, showing bodies, highlighting personal effects, etc., I, for one, am hugely pleased it has happened.
With you on that. I'm afraid I don;t subscribe to the western squeamishness about death, even if I do believe in respecting the bodies of victims. I am worried about the way western media trivialises violence - skirts real images of it in news, but is free and easy with it in films and video games.

skwdenyer said:
My maternal Grandfather fought in Burma during WWII. He fought hand-to-hand against Japanese soldiers, he prevailed when so many didn't, and he came home with a Japanese officer's sword, still showing the blood of those who had not been so fortunate. He didn't pilot a drone or dispatch cruise missiles.
I have a Jap bayonet from the Burmese campaign, from a great uncle. It's beautifully crafted and sports five notches hand cut into the wooden handle, so I assume it 'works'. (I keep it between the bed and bedside table for the unlikely black swan event of an intruder(s) managing to get into the house undetected by both a doberman and rottwieler.)

Derek Smith

45,660 posts

248 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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skwdenyer said:
As regards the distastefulness (as it were) or otherwise of reporting, showing bodies, highlighting personal effects, etc., I, for one, am hugely pleased it has happened.

The Crimean War is credited with turning the public against war, precisely because it was the first to be photographed. What had previously been a noble and heroic endeavour was revealed as the horrible, horrific thing it is. The news reports from, and photographs of, the Crimean War brought down a government.

Since then, regimes around the world have tried hard to shield the public from images of war. Even "embedded" reporters have their footage and reports vetted before transmission.

War has stopped being horrific in the eyes of many, even if it has yet to regain the lustre of heroism.

The coverage of MH17 has been a - horrific, certainly - breath of fresh air. Here is the dividend of war, bared on TV for all to see. This is what a ground-to-air missile does, close-up; this is what the aftermath of destruction looks like. Oh that we could see the same images of Gaza on our nightly news.

My maternal Grandfather fought in Burma during WWII. He fought hand-to-hand against Japanese soldiers, he prevailed when so many didn't, and he came home with a Japanese officer's sword, still showing the blood of those who had not been so fortunate. He didn't pilot a drone or dispatch cruise missiles.

I believe that the press should report more death, more bodies, more blood, more carnage. People should know what war is, what it does, and how far it should be opposed. We should have UN forces on the ground in Eastern Ukraine right now, in my opinion, protecting the crime scene and stamping-out resistance. But we should never shield the public from the truth.
That made me think. Thanks.

I went to an arms fair once. It was at Brighton and there were demonstrations outside, the normal crowd plus a few more. I chatted to them for a while and then went inside. Sharply dressed men in sober suits and strange ties bobbed about and rather attractive women stood, somewhat bemused, being photographed against displays of missiles.

I wandered up to one display where there was a picture of a Jet Provost, a plane I rather liked, in a bank over open countryside. It seems the Provost was chosen because it was about as basic an airplane as you could get and that a lot of 3rd world countries had them as trainers. The display was for a type of air-launched anti-personnel weapon, mounted underwing. I forget the full specs and stuff but one little bit stuck in my mind.

The chap told me that with a full load a Provost could fly along a road in a built-up area for a distance of about a quarter mile (from memory), drop half its load and then turn, fly back and drop the balance. There was a kill/serious injury-rate (not his phrase) of somewhere in the region of 90% guaranteed. They were selling this stuff to 3rd world countries, making out it was for self defence. His enthusiasm for the product, what it did, and how cheap it was, just made the horror more real.

The hall was full of such stuff.

There were surface to air missile launchers - and this was after Iran Air 655 - with film of them being launched and the trails going up into the air.


EskimoArapaho

5,135 posts

135 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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vonuber said:
No it really isn't. It's all about what the ukrainian people want, which was generally (before russia started getting a bit 1939) about getting rid of the corrupt government and moving towards closer ties with the West.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the estonians for example don't regret one bit joining the eu and nato. It's probably the only thing that has stopped Russia from re-invading them.
I wouldn't bother trying to have a sensible debate with XJ. From earlier:

"Or from a neutral perspective Russia ( justifiably ) thinks that at least a large proportion of 'Ukraine' is Russia not Europe."

He started the sentence off promisingly, but couldn't even manage four successive words (let alone a whole sentence or comment) without showing his bias.

Rocksteadyeddie

7,971 posts

227 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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vonuber said:
XJ Flyer said:
It's all about the point of view of the Russians.
No it really isn't. It's all about what the ukrainian people want, which was generally (before russia started getting a bit 1939) about getting rid of the corrupt government and moving towards closer ties with the West.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the estonians for example don't regret one bit joining the eu and nato. It's probably the only thing that has stopped Russia from re-invading them.
Thankfully for the people of Europe there are two hopes of Ukraine being allowed to join the club. Ukraine being in Nato doesn't bear thinking about.

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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TBH the irony of Russia's involvement in East Ukraine has pushed the country faster towards EU and possibly NATO integration than ever before.

Had Russia stayed out, Ukraine would have made slow, if any progress... but if there's one thing that unites a country it's military aggression from a foreign power.

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
quotequote all
An excellent article by a Russian who did not fall into the propaganda trap.

norussian said:
No Russian


Posted on July 20th, 2014

No RussianMany people in Silicon Valley inquired over the years why I was not coming back to Russia often (I visited once in two decades) or why I’m not spending much time helping Russian startups. I usually answered these questions in generalities while keeping my grim thoughts and predictions to myself. The events of the past few days, unfortunately, show that the worst predictions I feared all these years did come true. The nightmare scenario is now unfolding as we speak, and Russia position in the world is now altered forever.


The mass murder of passengers & crew of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 using Russian’s weapons and (most likely) by hands of Russian military squad exposed to the world that Russia is now complicit in committing crimes against humanity. That was quite a journey for a country that just six months ago were considered a full member of the global community, even if notoriously ornery one. How was it possible for things to collapse so far and so fast?

The Empire of Lies
“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways, gradually and then suddenly”
-Ernest Hemingway
To understand Russia’s lighting fast descend into the abyss one has to understand a simple truth that many (myself included) suspect all along: Russia was and is a failed state. What is seen from the outside is just a facade imitating a functional country and government. High oil prices, residual infrastructure of USSR and internal mass propaganda machine maintained the illusion for more than a decade.

Silicon Valley is far removed from that part of the world (Russia is non-entity when it comes to startups and innovation, besides being inexhaustible source of great engineers, we will come back to that), so let’s review some basic facts about Russia.

In simple terms, Russia is a mafia state. All the way from Moscow to regions and to small towns, everything is controlled by various mafia gangs. Police and judiciary are parts of most powerful gangs. They usually assist in extortion or theft of property earned by local small and medium size businessmen. Big business is subject to federal mafia clan wars.

The mafia-state formation is logical consequence of Russian economy: it is totally dominated by oil and gas revenues. Oil, gas and derivatives provide meaningful employment to about 1M people. Russian population is about 150M. How do they survive? The majority depends on various forms of government handouts.

With russian-style oil production you don’t have to think, innovate or even hire smart people. All you have to do is to cash the check. Gazprom is ranked as one of the most grossly inefficient enterprises in the world. So what happens when a small, totally incompetent minority controls country-wide oil rent while the rest of 149 million people are a burden? The answer is obvious: that 1M would create a mafia state to keep the rest of 149M in check by means of police and judiciary abuse and mass propaganda.

Russian propaganda machine is vast, it now exceeds the one of Soviet Union. Official TV propaganda lies professionally and constantly. There are no independent TV channels; everything is controlled by government stooges. The “news” teams employ special teams that do video editing and fabrications to present absolutely falsified accounts for TV transmission. Then these fabrications are broadcast to brainwash captive population.

The population at large is, statistically speaking, not very bright. Many are deranged from overuse of alcohol or drugs. A big number are simply aging elderly rooted in USSR-centric mindset who never adjusted to the modern world. Most of them do not “work” in the sense we understand full-time employment here: they occupy placeholder positions sponsored by the government. Being dependent their whole life on government help, they are psychologically unable even to think government can do something wrong.

The families, wives, children of Russian elite (think top 1% of that 1M strong oil & gas service clan) doesn’t live in the country. They actually despise Russia and it’s people. All of the live in the west, many in London: Russian’s oligarch family spending is major contributing factor to London overall economy. They have absolutely no long term interest in Russian country or population survival.

Corruption and theft are endemic. Recent Olympic games ended up most expensive in history of the planet not because they were so well built: it was because it gave an excuse to a huge number of mafia clans to steal on a gigantic scale.

Modern Russia is not a weaker version of Soviet Union “empire of evil.” This capability is, thankfully, long gone. Russia is “cargo cult” of Soviet empire. It lacks competent professionals, leaders and minimal work ethics to accomplish anything on that scale. It just have enough capacity to cover everything in a blanket of lies, and as long as it works on captive domestic population that is all that it’s leaders need to keep channeling profits from Russia to London accounts.

The best way to understand modern Russia is to imagine a steep pyramid. At the very top there is a clique of KGB-affiliated oligarchs, who manage barely-competent class of middle-managers (which can and do steal a fraction of everything they touch) which in turn sit on top of largely brainwashed and deranged mass population living on life-long government welfare.

Needless to say this is most toxic environment imaginable to incubate a startup ecosystem.

Creative Class
Moscow-protest-draws-tens-of-thousandsDespite all that titanic effort, modern technology is far more powerful than any attempts by a backward medieval government to hold it back. Internet, web and mobile formed so called “creative class” in Russia. In general, these folk are young, smart, energetic, totally in tune how to leverage modern technology to find out the truth or to achieve their goals. They were the spearhead and main organizers ofDecember 2011 protests against Putin’s mafia state. When you see smart young Russian engineer in Silicon Valley, most likely, you are talking with a member of this creative class.

Yet, Macbook Pro Retina is a poor weapon when fighting AK-wielding government thugs. Mass propaganda and intimidation do work at mass scale. It is much easier to be dumb and “patriotic” than smart and inquisitive ( even US population had to learn that lesson the hard way after Iraq invasion ).

Creative class was a minority in modern day Russia and there is a strong emergent behaviour that draining their numbers. That is a class of people with the skills most in demand in Europe and USA. During “peaceful” decade of Putin’s rule over two million people emigrated from Russia: this is a number higher then immigration after communist revolution and civil war.

By my estimate there is probably few hundreds of thousands of people in the creative class in Russia. This vocal, yet very small group so far never succeeded at thwarting russian mafia state at anything. Then, recently everything had changed.

Ukrainian Valor
The differences between “Ukrainian” and “Russian” people are cosmetic. The distance between Kiev and Moscow is about same as Sacramento to San Diego. Even today, after all that happened, the most likely language you will hear on the streets of Kiev is Russian. So why Kremlin was so enraged about recent Ukrainian revolution? After all Ukraine has no natural gas or oil, there were no riches to divide, what was the fuss all about?

What happened is that first time in history, large group of ethnic “Russians” had overthrown a mafia clan in a popular uprising. Until then, Ukraine was a satellite state, and exactly because it had no natural oil and gas, much larger portion of the population had to develop “creative class” skills rather than going to work for oil company or police enforcement. Then suddenly this social group had enough heft and popular power to overthrow local mafia don.

You can imagine the amount of terror it produced in the gang occupying Kremlin right now. If was and still is an extensional threat to them, hence they pulled out all the stops to overthrow or destabilize a new government in Kiev, and at the same time whip out xenophobic mass-hysteria in a local population.

At this moment, Kremlin can not really stop. If Kiev government survives, it will fairly quickly unlock economic benefits of non-mafia, free economy. The large parasitic class living by bribes and extortion will be displaced: it will have the same effect as if base tax rate would suddenly drop by a double digit percentage. Next door, progressive Russians would quickly notice and spread information about growing prosperity and opportunity in a city next door. What was half million Euro-leaning progressives, would become a million, then few million: before long you can picture a Gaddafi-style demise for the Kremlin gang.

Kremlin is fighting for its own survival: supplying weapon system and military crew to a roaming criminal gangs is nothing for them in big scheme of things.

Russia’s brand is over
This situation will get worse before it gets better. Kremlin will fight to the last: we will yet see the massive flood of lies and deceit they will unleash to mitigate the anger of their recent mass murder. Very unfortunately everything they do will be branded with the words Russia or Russian. Can’t say the rest of the country is blameless: Putin got a stratospheric 71% support level after annexation of Crimea. Many in creative class would do the logical thing: give up the hopeless fight and emigrate. We are probably going to see another, super-massive wave of immigration coming from Russia in next few years.

I think we came to the end of the line with regards to Russia as a name, culture, a global brand. For the time being the country future is destroyed, police state is well-entrenched and the narrative for the brainwashed locals would be xenophobic tale of struggle with the “West”.

Here is what it all means for Silicon Valley:

Expect to see a lot of resumes coming from Russia. Keep in mind internal situation for smart and talented person is dire, they are not just looking for a job, they looking to save themselves and their families.

Try to differentiate between “creative class”, a few brave people trying to swim against incredibly dangerous tide and the rest of brainwashed population.

Help Ukraine. They have terrific outsourcing shops and consulting firms. Send them business if you can. Recent revolution would unlock even more creative force in this economically modest, yet energetic country. They are the first large group of ethnic “russians” who become free on their own power and valor. To understand the scale of that achievement, here is the last group of Russians who were not ruled by khans, czars, communist chairmans or KGB generals: Free Novgorod Republic. That was over 1000 years go. Ukrane was a cradle of Russian civilization – they might become a source of it rebirth yet again.

Boycott anything and everything related to Russian government and associated banks and corporations. Any business you send to them only strengthen the regime. Your contract dollars will pay for next Buk missile.
Personally, I’m thinking to start calling myself Euro-Slavic instead of “Russian”. It’s a flimsy defense, yet Russian brand, after already being tainted with gulag and the rest of its toxic legacy, is now synonymous with mass murder of innocent civilians. There is nothing of value left to recover.
http://skibinsky.com/no-russian/

Digga

40,320 posts

283 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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Slightly O/T but the sympathy and humility shown by the Ukranian villagers is extremely touching and humbling throughout. They are apparently holding a memorial service today.

Hackney

6,841 posts

208 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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Art0ir said:
GarageQueen said:
did anyone else see another Sky news reporter walking through the burnt ground amongst the wreckage? I thought that was a little untasteful as well
Full report here

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/07/22/kay-bu...
That's not a report, it's a piss-poor attempt at satire.

rich85uk

3,369 posts

179 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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skyrover said:
An excellent article by a Russian who did not fall into the propaganda trap.

norussian said:
stuff
http://skibinsky.com/no-russian/
Wow, probably the best post I have read in this thread so far!

croyde

22,898 posts

230 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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yes

simo1863

1,868 posts

128 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
quotequote all
skyrover said:
TBH the irony of Russia's involvement in East Ukraine has pushed the country faster towards EU and possibly NATO integration than ever before.

Had Russia stayed out, Ukraine would have made slow, if any progress... but if there's one thing that unites a country it's military aggression from a foreign power.
Do you think so? I'm getting a strong sense of 'we're disappointed but won't poke the angry bear too much about it' from the politicians.

I think part of that would be not to bring Ukraine into the EU and Nato, especially until the conflict is resolved. Just my gut feeling though.

simo1863

1,868 posts

128 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
quotequote all
vonuber said:
No it really isn't. It's all about what the ukrainian people want, which was generally (before russia started getting a bit 1939) about getting rid of the corrupt government and moving towards closer ties with the West.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the estonians for example don't regret one bit joining the eu and nato. It's probably the only thing that has stopped Russia from re-invading them.
Yanukovych was a freely elected President. I don't doubt he may have fallen in line with the Oligarchs but there was a time when most Ukrainians voted for him, well maybe not most; 48%

LittleEnus

3,226 posts

174 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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hidetheelephants said:
If the missile did detonate ahead of it as the section of the nosecone implies the aerodynamic forces plus the stresses of pressurisation probably caused rapid disintegration; the experiments carried out on models of Comets in the 1950s demonstrated violent destruction just from a small structural failure with the fuselage unpeeling like a banana, the massive impact and structural damage from a missile hit is likely to have destroyed it very quickly.
I watched a film of the actual explosion in mid air. If you look closely much of the plane was intact as it spiralled to earth. I was hoping it would have disintegrated in air but I fear many were alive for that final plunge. Awful and deeply saddening thought. Rest in peace.

Vaud

50,485 posts

155 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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LittleEnus said:
I watched a film of the actual explosion in mid air. If you look closely much of the plane was intact as it spiralled to earth. I was hoping it would have disintegrated in air but I fear many were alive for that final plunge. Awful and deeply saddening thought. Rest in peace.
Are you sure? Was it this?

http://www.snopes.com/photos/airplane/mh17video.as...

Rocksteadyeddie

7,971 posts

227 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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simo1863 said:
skyrover said:
TBH the irony of Russia's involvement in East Ukraine has pushed the country faster towards EU and possibly NATO integration than ever before.

Had Russia stayed out, Ukraine would have made slow, if any progress... but if there's one thing that unites a country it's military aggression from a foreign power.
Do you think so? I'm getting a strong sense of 'we're disappointed but won't poke the angry bear too much about it' from the politicians.

I think part of that would be not to bring Ukraine into the EU and Nato, especially until the conflict is resolved. Just my gut feeling though.
There's no chance of Ukraine being a part of Nato. The US don't want a war with Russia over a bit of the world that means nothing to one, and a lot to the other.

The US report overnight gives Russia just the opportunity for "plausible deniability" that it needs. We may not like to admit it, but geopolitically that's the best way out of this for all concerned.

LittleEnus

3,226 posts

174 months

Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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