Malaysian Airlines 777 down on Ukraine / Russia Border?
Discussion
KareemK said:
Russia has Crimea, that was their main objective. If Eastern Ukraine were to fall to Pro-Russian supporters as well then fine, they'll take that too but it was never the jewel in the crown or they would have done to Eastern Ukraine what they did to Crimea.
From the Ukraine Nationalists point of view fighting for Eastern Ukraine will probably roll over into also seeing the retaking of Crimea as an essential part of that.I'd be more pessimistic at the moment that what we're seeing,at least from the Russian military point of view, is Putin having effectively ( so far )lost ground on balance with knock on implications regarding the whole Crimea and Eastern Ukraine mission.Which realistically have to be seen as dependent on each other for their success.If it's that scenario then it's likely that the real flash point hasn't even started yet based on the questions.
1) will the Ukrainian nationalist forces want to stop assuming they are eventually successful in putting down the ethnic Russian and Russian backed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.
2)Will NATO then move into the the whole of Ukraine including possibly Crimea.
3)Will the Russian military leadership be prepared to allow even those questions to remain outstanding without calling Putin a loser then having him deposed and then meeting the potential,let alone any actual,Ukrianian/NATO threat,as they see it,head on.Id guess that while Russia sees Crimea as strategically important to it in that regard then there's no way that Eastern Ukraine at least can logically be seperated from that.It is therefore my guess that what happens in the medium term is on a knife edge in that regard depending on what is happening within the Russian government concerning the issue of NATO expansion,which is what this is really all about,and how Russia intends to deal with it.Which ominously seems to going on in silence behind closed doors on an ever increasing basis.Rather than NATO and Russia talking to each other openly about reaching an agreement that's acceptable to both concerning the issue.
Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 20th August 17:36
XJ Flyer said:
From the Ukraine Nationalists point of view fighting for Eastern Ukraine will probably roll over into also seeing the retaking of Crimea as an essential part of that.
I'd be more pessimistic at the moment that what we're seeing,at least from the Russian military point of view, is Putin having effectively ( so far )lost ground on balance with knock on implications regarding the whole Crimea and Eastern Ukraine mission.Which realistically have to be seen as dependent on each other for their success.If it's that scenario then it's likely that the real flash point hasn't even started yet based on the questions.
1) will the Ukrainian nationalist forces want to stop assuming they are eventually successful in putting down the ethnic Russian and Russian backed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.
2)Will NATO then move into the the whole of Ukraine including possibly Crimea.
3)Will the Russian military leadership be prepared to allow even those questions to remain outstanding without calling Putin a loser then having him deposed and then meeting the potential,let alone any actual,Ukrianian/NATO threat,as they see it,head on.Id guess that while Russia sees Crimea as strategically important to it in that regard then there's no way that Eastern Ukraine at least can logically be seperated from that.It is therefore my guess that what happens in the medium term is on a knife edge in that regard depending on what is happening within the Russian government concerning the issue of NATO expansion,which is what this is really all about,and how Russia intends to deal with it.Which ominously seems to going on in silence behind closed doors on an ever increasing basis.Rather than NATO and Russia talking to each other openly about reaching an agreement that's acceptable to both concerning the issue.
4) None of the above.I'd be more pessimistic at the moment that what we're seeing,at least from the Russian military point of view, is Putin having effectively ( so far )lost ground on balance with knock on implications regarding the whole Crimea and Eastern Ukraine mission.Which realistically have to be seen as dependent on each other for their success.If it's that scenario then it's likely that the real flash point hasn't even started yet based on the questions.
1) will the Ukrainian nationalist forces want to stop assuming they are eventually successful in putting down the ethnic Russian and Russian backed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.
2)Will NATO then move into the the whole of Ukraine including possibly Crimea.
3)Will the Russian military leadership be prepared to allow even those questions to remain outstanding without calling Putin a loser then having him deposed and then meeting the potential,let alone any actual,Ukrianian/NATO threat,as they see it,head on.Id guess that while Russia sees Crimea as strategically important to it in that regard then there's no way that Eastern Ukraine at least can logically be seperated from that.It is therefore my guess that what happens in the medium term is on a knife edge in that regard depending on what is happening within the Russian government concerning the issue of NATO expansion,which is what this is really all about,and how Russia intends to deal with it.Which ominously seems to going on in silence behind closed doors on an ever increasing basis.Rather than NATO and Russia talking to each other openly about reaching an agreement that's acceptable to both concerning the issue.
Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 20th August 17:36
XJ, you really do seem to think you are living in a Tom Clancy novel.
The Russians are simply not going to try and recreate the Soviet Union. They can't afford it. Their neighbours are properly tooled up and hate them. Most of the ruling bourgeoisie in Russia like to holiday in the US and Europe and they hate the way their lives are being affected.
Russia taking on the EU is effectively the same as stabbing yourself in the heart - given that the EU is Russias biggest customer and the Chinese really roasted them on the oil deal they've just signed. For all of these reasons and many, many more, Putin has no choice but to go back to his dacha, take his shirt off and pose around in a homo-erotic way to satisfy the home audience.
Its over.
toppstuff said:
XJ Flyer said:
From the Ukraine Nationalists point of view fighting for Eastern Ukraine will probably roll over into also seeing the retaking of Crimea as an essential part of that.
I'd be more pessimistic at the moment that what we're seeing,at least from the Russian military point of view, is Putin having effectively ( so far )lost ground on balance with knock on implications regarding the whole Crimea and Eastern Ukraine mission.Which realistically have to be seen as dependent on each other for their success.If it's that scenario then it's likely that the real flash point hasn't even started yet based on the questions.
1) will the Ukrainian nationalist forces want to stop assuming they are eventually successful in putting down the ethnic Russian and Russian backed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.
2)Will NATO then move into the the whole of Ukraine including possibly Crimea.
3)Will the Russian military leadership be prepared to allow even those questions to remain outstanding without calling Putin a loser then having him deposed and then meeting the potential,let alone any actual,Ukrianian/NATO threat,as they see it,head on.Id guess that while Russia sees Crimea as strategically important to it in that regard then there's no way that Eastern Ukraine at least can logically be seperated from that.It is therefore my guess that what happens in the medium term is on a knife edge in that regard depending on what is happening within the Russian government concerning the issue of NATO expansion,which is what this is really all about,and how Russia intends to deal with it.Which ominously seems to going on in silence behind closed doors on an ever increasing basis.Rather than NATO and Russia talking to each other openly about reaching an agreement that's acceptable to both concerning the issue.
4) None of the above.I'd be more pessimistic at the moment that what we're seeing,at least from the Russian military point of view, is Putin having effectively ( so far )lost ground on balance with knock on implications regarding the whole Crimea and Eastern Ukraine mission.Which realistically have to be seen as dependent on each other for their success.If it's that scenario then it's likely that the real flash point hasn't even started yet based on the questions.
1) will the Ukrainian nationalist forces want to stop assuming they are eventually successful in putting down the ethnic Russian and Russian backed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.
2)Will NATO then move into the the whole of Ukraine including possibly Crimea.
3)Will the Russian military leadership be prepared to allow even those questions to remain outstanding without calling Putin a loser then having him deposed and then meeting the potential,let alone any actual,Ukrianian/NATO threat,as they see it,head on.Id guess that while Russia sees Crimea as strategically important to it in that regard then there's no way that Eastern Ukraine at least can logically be seperated from that.It is therefore my guess that what happens in the medium term is on a knife edge in that regard depending on what is happening within the Russian government concerning the issue of NATO expansion,which is what this is really all about,and how Russia intends to deal with it.Which ominously seems to going on in silence behind closed doors on an ever increasing basis.Rather than NATO and Russia talking to each other openly about reaching an agreement that's acceptable to both concerning the issue.
Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 20th August 17:36
XJ, you really do seem to think you are living in a Tom Clancy novel.
The Russians are simply not going to try and recreate the Soviet Union. They can't afford it. Their neighbours are properly tooled up and hate them. Most of the ruling bourgeoisie in Russia like to holiday in the US and Europe and they hate the way their lives are being affected.
Russia taking on the EU is effectively the same as stabbing yourself in the heart - given that the EU is Russias biggest customer and the Chinese really roasted them on the oil deal they've just signed. For all of these reasons and many, many more, Putin has no choice but to go back to his dacha, take his shirt off and pose around in a homo-erotic way to satisfy the home audience.
Its over.
In which case I wouldn't bet the farm on your view which is what NATO is doing.While being a possible miscalculation along the lines which said that WW1 would be over by Christmas 1914.Except this time the game is being played with tactical and strategic nukes not just machine guns,artillery and tanks.
In which case don't be surprised if we hear news of a military coup,or at least military leadership pressure that deposes Russia's present leadership,in the coming months and if so it's then just a question of what happens next.Bearing in mind at that point Russia is a cornered military superpower with nothing to lose surrounded by perceived and/or real enemies which hate it.
DMN said:
Russia has nukes, but it is no longer a Military Super power.
Only the US remains so, although China is fast catching up.
The term 'Military Super power' is not really used, but in terms of non nuclear firepower Russia is still number 2 in the world behind the USA, china is third then IndiaOnly the US remains so, although China is fast catching up.
The Spruce goose said:
The term 'Military Super power' is not really used, but in terms of non nuclear firepower Russia is still number 2 in the world behind the USA, china is third then India
Number 2 is probably debatable TBHChina Vs Russia latest "Active" figures as of 2014:
China Navy = 377 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 990,077)
Russia Navy = 202 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 927,120)
China Air force = 1535 Fighter's 580 Bomber/Strike, Total = 2115 combat aircraft
Russia Air force = 808 Fighter's 701 Bomber/Strike, Total = 1509 combat aircraft
China Ground Forces = 9,150 tanks, 4788 APC/IFV, 9726 Artillery, 1,600,000 personnel
Russia Ground Forces = 2,562 tanks, 6105 APC/IFV, 5739 Artillery, 285,000 personnel
China Budget = $188,000,000,000
Russia Budget = $87,800,000,000
Edited by skyrover on Thursday 21st August 11:08
No wonder Russia wants to remain close to China, even more so now they have the resources to develop there own weapons rather than just mass buying everything from Russia.
Having said that from a military point of views Russia should still be massively respected and feared though, if they launched a full military attack against Ukraine it would be over within days if not hours.
I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
Having said that from a military point of views Russia should still be massively respected and feared though, if they launched a full military attack against Ukraine it would be over within days if not hours.
I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
skyrover said:
The Spruce goose said:
The term 'Military Super power' is not really used, but in terms of non nuclear firepower Russia is still number 2 in the world behind the USA, china is third then India
Number 2 is probably debatable TBHChina Vs Russia latest "Active" figures as of 2014:
China Navy = 377 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 990,077)
Russia Navy = 202 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 927,120)
China Air force = 1535 Fighter's 580 Bomber/Strike, Total = 2115 combat aircraft
Russia Air force = 808 Fighter's 701 Bomber/Strike, Total = 1509 combat aircraft
China Ground Forces = 9,150 tanks, 4788 APC/IFV, 9726 Artillery, 1,600,000 personnel
Russia Ground Forces = 2,562 tanks, 6105 APC/IFV, 5739 Artillery, 285,000 personnel
China Budget = $188,000,000,000
Russia Budget = $87,800,000,000
Edited by skyrover on Thursday 21st August 11:08
rich85uk said:
rs.
I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
China has no allies and has never gotten on very well with any of it's neighbors.I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
A large military ensures security and a large navy will allow power projection and the ability to secure shipping lanes/areas of "interest"
rich85uk said:
No wonder Russia wants to remain close to China, even more so now they have the resources to develop there own weapons rather than just mass buying everything from Russia.
Having said that from a military point of views Russia should still be massively respected and feared though, if they launched a full military attack against Ukraine it would be over within days if not hours.
I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
They have also been buying up mining rights all over Africa etc so I guess one day they want to be able to protect all their natural resources which they have been securing over the last 10 years or so.Having said that from a military point of views Russia should still be massively respected and feared though, if they launched a full military attack against Ukraine it would be over within days if not hours.
I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
Edited by TLandCruiser on Thursday 21st August 11:37
irocfan said:
skyrover said:
The Spruce goose said:
The term 'Military Super power' is not really used, but in terms of non nuclear firepower Russia is still number 2 in the world behind the USA, china is third then India
Number 2 is probably debatable TBHChina Vs Russia latest "Active" figures as of 2014:
US Navy = 271 Combat ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 3,382,959)
China Navy = 377 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 990,077)
Russia Navy = 202 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 927,120)
Royal Navy = 56 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 367,850)
US Air Force = 2728 Fighter's, 542 Bomber/Strike, Total = 3270 combat aircraft
China Air force = 1535 Fighter's 580 Bomber/Strike, Total = 2115 combat aircraft
Russia Air force = 808 Fighter's 701 Bomber/Strike, Total = 1509 combat aircraft
Royal Air Force = 120 Fighters 102 Bomber/Strike, Total = 222 combat aircraft
US Ground Forces = 6,343 tanks, 19,722 APC/IFV, 2407 Artillery, 546,047 personnel
China Ground Forces = 9,150 tanks, 4788 APC/IFV, 9726 Artillery, 1,600,000 personnel
Russia Ground Forces = 2,562 tanks, 6105 APC/IFV, 5739 Artillery, 285,000 personnel
British Army = 407 tanks, 1601 APC/IFV, 283 Artillery, 125,430 personnel
US Budget = $640,000,000,000
China Budget = $188,000,000,000
Russia Budget = $87,800,000,000
UK Budget = $62,600,000,000
Edited by skyrover on Thursday 21st August 11:08
Edited by skyrover on Thursday 21st August 11:51
skyrover said:
Number 2 is probably debatable TBH
China Vs Russia latest "Active" figures as of 2014:
China Navy = 377 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 990,077)
Russia Navy = 202 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 927,120)
China Air force = 1535 Fighter's 580 Bomber/Strike, Total = 2115 combat aircraft
Russia Air force = 808 Fighter's 701 Bomber/Strike, Total = 1509 combat aircraft
China Ground Forces = 9,150 tanks, 4788 APC/IFV, 9726 Artillery, 1,600,000 personnel
Russia Ground Forces = 2,562 tanks, 6105 APC/IFV, 5739 Artillery, 285,000 personnel
China Budget = $188,000,000,000
Russia Budget = $87,800,000,000
Does any of that Russian junk actually work though? I suspect much of it is very old and falling apart.China Vs Russia latest "Active" figures as of 2014:
China Navy = 377 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 990,077)
Russia Navy = 202 Combat Ships over 250 tons (total tonnage 927,120)
China Air force = 1535 Fighter's 580 Bomber/Strike, Total = 2115 combat aircraft
Russia Air force = 808 Fighter's 701 Bomber/Strike, Total = 1509 combat aircraft
China Ground Forces = 9,150 tanks, 4788 APC/IFV, 9726 Artillery, 1,600,000 personnel
Russia Ground Forces = 2,562 tanks, 6105 APC/IFV, 5739 Artillery, 285,000 personnel
China Budget = $188,000,000,000
Russia Budget = $87,800,000,000
Edited by skyrover on Thursday 21st August 11:08
Stevanos said:
Does any of that Russian junk actually work though? I suspect much of it is very old and falling apart.
The figures I have included are "active" and being maintained. The Russians have thousands of pieces of military equipment on top of what I have listed that are sitting rotting away in sheds.rich85uk said:
No wonder Russia wants to remain close to China, even more so now they have the resources to develop there own weapons rather than just mass buying everything from Russia.
Having said that from a military point of views Russia should still be massively respected and feared though, if they launched a full military attack against Ukraine it would be over within days if not hours.
I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
1. Russia and China are not friends. They are more like two large alpha male Grizzly bears. They respect each others power but do not instinctively like each other or want to get on. China has always kept huge armed forces on its borders with Russia. China is also the leading alpha in the relationship now - Russia is subordinate to China. Proof of this is the recent oil and gas deal Russia signed with the Chinese - the Russians badly wanted the deal because they were busy pissing off the EU ( the EU is Russias biggest source of income ) and they needed a counterpoint. The Chinese stiffed them big time and utterly ripped the Russians off. They didn't like it, but they had to bend over and take it from the Chinese without complaining.Having said that from a military point of views Russia should still be massively respected and feared though, if they launched a full military attack against Ukraine it would be over within days if not hours.
I wonder why China feels the need to have such a large and powerful army?
2. China has a huge armed forces because the armed forces have a significant political role and so they get access to the purse strings. A huge armed forces also employs millions of people, keeps the factories open, while also providing the means to kick ass both externally if needed and also internally, so they can repress their own population if need be in the future.
Ukraine forces captured a Russian APC complete with vehicle and soldier's documentation. The APC belonged to 74268 company of the PSKOV Airomobile division. They also have the names of the crew and commander with a name on an abandoned weapon. Whats more interesting these were Russian regulars who are currently in service.
skyrover said:
Left: tactical number 275. Right: emblem of of 76th division of Rus army, which happens to be stationing just at the other side of the border right now.
The APC was captured in Luhansk.
Edited by skyrover on Thursday 21st August 14:33
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