Malaysian Airlines 777 down on Ukraine / Russia Border?
Discussion
Nato plans east European bases to counter Russian threat
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-...
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-...
vonuber said:
Nato plans east European bases to counter Russian threat
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-...
The Poles and Baltic states have been pushing for this for a while. Ironically the Russian's have invited NATO closer to their doorstep. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-...
skyrover said:
vonuber said:
Nato plans east European bases to counter Russian threat
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-...
The Poles and Baltic states have been pushing for this for a while. Ironically the Russian's have invited NATO closer to their doorstep. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-...
Ironically NATO is just following the predictable agenda which is what is driving Russia's policy to meet the threat as it sees it and which is causing the issues.
Meanwhile Putin clearly seemed to be under the type of pressure which I think he is under from his military to meet the problem head on rather than keep trying to hold back in that regard in the news reports showing him meeting his Ukrainian counterpart.So obviously nothing yet which would suggest that NATO and Russia's military leadership ( as opposed to Putin ) aren't still on a collision course with the potential to kick off WW3 over the issue of NATO expansion.More like the opposite.
MiniMan64 said:
All this will they won't they invade from Russia, the smoke and mirrors....
At this point would anybody actually do anything about it? Apart from the Ukraine obviously?
I can't see anybody else stepping in if Russia just decided to say bugger, let's get it done?
There will be no military help from the West... however widespread sanctions could cripple RussiaAt this point would anybody actually do anything about it? Apart from the Ukraine obviously?
I can't see anybody else stepping in if Russia just decided to say bugger, let's get it done?
MiniMan64 said:
At this point would anybody actually do anything about it? Apart from the Ukraine obviously?
I can't see anybody else stepping in if Russia just decided to say bugger, let's get it done?
History shows that the implications of that question shouldn't be underestimated.I can't see anybody else stepping in if Russia just decided to say bugger, let's get it done?
Obviously Putin sees something which suggest that once things start rolling in that regard it might not be as easy to stop it as it was to start it.I'd guess that would possibly include his removal from office in favour of a military led government at that point.
XJ Flyer said:
History shows that the implications of that question shouldn't be underestimated.
Obviously Putin sees something which suggest that once things start rolling in that regard it might not be as easy to stop it as it was to start it.I'd guess that would possibly include his removal from office in favour of a military led government at that point.
In which case it would be back to the Cold War but with the border being the actual Russian border rather than the Iron Curtain.Obviously Putin sees something which suggest that once things start rolling in that regard it might not be as easy to stop it as it was to start it.I'd guess that would possibly include his removal from office in favour of a military led government at that point.
MrCarPark said:
In which case it would be back to the Cold War but with the border being the actual Russian border rather than the Iron Curtain.
Will never happen. Russia would become bankrupt first, The old USSR was a closed society. They traded only with themselves. No one really bought anything from them.
This has all changed. The new Russia depends on the West for its economy.
We can't be their enemy AND their biggest customer at the same time.
toppstuff said:
MrCarPark said:
In which case it would be back to the Cold War but with the border being the actual Russian border rather than the Iron Curtain.
Will never happen. Russia would become bankrupt first, The old USSR was a closed society. They traded only with themselves. No one really bought anything from them.
This has all changed. The new Russia depends on the West for its economy.
We can't be their enemy AND their biggest customer at the same time.
As for a 'return' to the Cold War.Circumstances so far suggest that there's no way of getting back to such a status quo with NATO on Russia's borders.
Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 27th August 15:00
Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 27th August 15:01
In Ukraine, an armoured column appears out of nowhere
reuters said:
MOSCOW/ NOVOAZOVSK Ukraine (Reuters) - On Monday, a resident of Novoazovsk in south-eastern Ukraine said she saw a column of armored vehicles approach the town and start shooting.
"It all started at 8:00 this morning, tanks appeared, no fewer than seven of them," the woman, who gave her name only as Lyudmila, told Reuters by telephone. "Right now I can hear rumbling, explosions ... the residents are hiding."
In Kiev later that morning, Ukrainian officials said the column was an incursion by Russian troops which it alleges are fighting alongside pro-Moscow separatists, a claim Russia quickly dismissed as disinformation.
That is a now-familiar ritual: the five-month conflict over eastern Ukraine is one of claim and counter-claim by opposing sides, often centering on what role Russia is playing. With the battlefield mostly too dangerous for reporters to safely move around, verifying who is doing what is usually impossible.
On Tuesday, in a continuation of the pattern, Kiev said it had captured a group of Russian soldiers who had entered Ukraine on a "special mission", while Moscow said they were there by mistake.
However, the armored column that appeared on Monday in the far south-eastern corner of Ukraine, where it abuts the Russian border, was unusual because the spot was far removed from any territory held by the separatists.
It was therefore difficult to see how the column could have appeared in Ukraine without having come across the Russian border, unless it made an amphibious landing from the nearby Azov Sea which is improbable given the number of heavy vehicles witnesses said they saw.
A Reuters reporter was able to observe the situation in the area where the column was seen, first at the start of August and then most recently on Sunday afternoon, a few hours before the first sightings of the column were reported.
Those observations, combined with interviews with rebel leaders, Ukrainian soldiers, and other research, indicated two things.
First, that until late on Sunday there were no rebel formations within about 30 km (20 miles) of the area where the armored column first appeared, and had not been for weeks beforehand.
And secondly, that before the armored column appeared, the area had come under artillery fire at times when the nearest rebel positions were beyond the range of most types of weapon that could have delivered the strike.
It was not possible to establish whether the people driving the column and firing the artillery were Russian soldiers or separatist rebels. But there were strong indications that whoever it was doing those things operated out of Russian territory - something very unlikely to have happened without Moscow's consent.
The question of Russian involvement is at the core of Western governments' response to the Ukraine crisis, and could be crucial to how the conflict plays out.
The European Union and United States have already imposed sanctions on Russia in part based on allegations Moscow is arming the rebels. The West has warned of more sanctions if Russia provides further help.
ARTILLERY FIRE
A Ukrainian national guard unit stationed on the outskirts of Novoazovsk, on the road towards the Novoazovsk-Veselo-Voznesenka border crossing, showed a Reuters reporter a crater left by an exploding munition near their position.
They said the artillery fire was coming from over the border inside Russia, about 10 km (six miles) to the east.
"There were about 500 salvos from Grad (multiple rocket system) and mortars. There have been and are no rebels here whatsoever. They're just firing straight from Russia," Roman, the commander of a Ukrainian national guard unit, said on Sunday, before the armored column appeared in the same area.
Reuters saw no direct evidence of this, and Russian officials have repeatedly denied that their military is in any way involved in the conflict in eastern Ukraine, between pro-Moscow separatist rebels and government forces.
A spokesman for the Russian border guard service, when asked to comment, said: "This is stupid. Russia doesn't fire at anyone." The Russian defense ministry did not respond to a faxed request for comment.
But with no rebel presence within range inside Ukraine, it was not clear what other source there could have been for the artillery fire.
Even if rebels has somehow snuck into the area and fired the artillery, it seemed impossible they could have done that without using Russian territory to move about, given the distance from the nearest rebel-held locations.
CRATER
The crater seen by the Reuters reporter on Sunday, before the clashes with rebels, was in the corner of a field behind a defensive trench dug by the Ukrainian national guard unit. A metal fragment that appeared to come from a munition was found in the hole.
Reuters showed the photographs of the crater to four European weapons experts who said the crater was either made by an artillery rocket, most probably a Grad, or by a shell from a self-propelled 122 mm gun.
According to one of the experts, Konrad Muzyka, Europe and CIS Armed Forces Analyst with IHS, a consultancy, the maximum range for the 2S1 Gvozdika, the Soviet-designed self-propelled 122 mm gun in use in ex-Soviet states, is 15.3 km. That is extendable to 21.9 km when rocket-assisted projectiles are used, he said.
Muzyka said the maximum range for the most commonly used Grad rocket, designated as 9M22U, was 20.33 km. He said other variants have ranges of up to 40 km, but they are less widespread.
The rebels' self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) says its forces are pushing south from their main stronghold in the city Donetsk, but the settlements they said they had taken by Monday which were closest to the Novoazovsk-Veselo-Voznesenka crossing were Telmanovo, about 30 km (20 miles) away as the crow flies, and Novokaterinovka, about 60 km (40 miles) away.
That may have overstated the rebels' reach: a Reuters reporter who drove through Telmanovo twice on Sunday saw no sign of a rebel presence in or near the town.
One of the experts who reviewed the photographs, British-based independent weapons researcher Eliot Higgins, said he believed the crater was caused by a Grad rocket. He said the shape of the crater suggested the munition was fired from the north-east, the direction of the border with Russia.
The Ukrainian unit said most of the artillery struck in the area between their post and the border. Reuters was unable to inspect the other craters left behind by the strikes because of the risk the artillery fire could start up again.
Members of the unit said Russian artillery had been landing on the Ukrainian side overnight from Thursday to Friday, and again on Friday night.
On a previous visit to the area, on Aug. 1. Ukrainian border guards at the crossing point between Russia and Ukraine showed a Reuters reporter broken windows and holes in the roof of their building.
They said the damage was caused by mortar rounds fired from Russian territory. "There isn't a single insurgent around here for 50 km," said one of the border guards, Artur Zakharov. "A mortar can travel 6 (km)."
Asked by Reuters on Monday how the rebels could fire artillery so far from their positions, Andrei Purgin, DNR deputy prime minister, said: "In the conditions of modern warfare, 20 km is no kind of distance for artillery."
"This is not a war of fronts, it's a civil war. Movements of troops can take place here practically instantaneously. All of us here are insurgents. You come home, you grab your weapons and you go and shoot."
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-ukraine-armored-co..."It all started at 8:00 this morning, tanks appeared, no fewer than seven of them," the woman, who gave her name only as Lyudmila, told Reuters by telephone. "Right now I can hear rumbling, explosions ... the residents are hiding."
In Kiev later that morning, Ukrainian officials said the column was an incursion by Russian troops which it alleges are fighting alongside pro-Moscow separatists, a claim Russia quickly dismissed as disinformation.
That is a now-familiar ritual: the five-month conflict over eastern Ukraine is one of claim and counter-claim by opposing sides, often centering on what role Russia is playing. With the battlefield mostly too dangerous for reporters to safely move around, verifying who is doing what is usually impossible.
On Tuesday, in a continuation of the pattern, Kiev said it had captured a group of Russian soldiers who had entered Ukraine on a "special mission", while Moscow said they were there by mistake.
However, the armored column that appeared on Monday in the far south-eastern corner of Ukraine, where it abuts the Russian border, was unusual because the spot was far removed from any territory held by the separatists.
It was therefore difficult to see how the column could have appeared in Ukraine without having come across the Russian border, unless it made an amphibious landing from the nearby Azov Sea which is improbable given the number of heavy vehicles witnesses said they saw.
A Reuters reporter was able to observe the situation in the area where the column was seen, first at the start of August and then most recently on Sunday afternoon, a few hours before the first sightings of the column were reported.
Those observations, combined with interviews with rebel leaders, Ukrainian soldiers, and other research, indicated two things.
First, that until late on Sunday there were no rebel formations within about 30 km (20 miles) of the area where the armored column first appeared, and had not been for weeks beforehand.
And secondly, that before the armored column appeared, the area had come under artillery fire at times when the nearest rebel positions were beyond the range of most types of weapon that could have delivered the strike.
It was not possible to establish whether the people driving the column and firing the artillery were Russian soldiers or separatist rebels. But there were strong indications that whoever it was doing those things operated out of Russian territory - something very unlikely to have happened without Moscow's consent.
The question of Russian involvement is at the core of Western governments' response to the Ukraine crisis, and could be crucial to how the conflict plays out.
The European Union and United States have already imposed sanctions on Russia in part based on allegations Moscow is arming the rebels. The West has warned of more sanctions if Russia provides further help.
ARTILLERY FIRE
A Ukrainian national guard unit stationed on the outskirts of Novoazovsk, on the road towards the Novoazovsk-Veselo-Voznesenka border crossing, showed a Reuters reporter a crater left by an exploding munition near their position.
They said the artillery fire was coming from over the border inside Russia, about 10 km (six miles) to the east.
"There were about 500 salvos from Grad (multiple rocket system) and mortars. There have been and are no rebels here whatsoever. They're just firing straight from Russia," Roman, the commander of a Ukrainian national guard unit, said on Sunday, before the armored column appeared in the same area.
Reuters saw no direct evidence of this, and Russian officials have repeatedly denied that their military is in any way involved in the conflict in eastern Ukraine, between pro-Moscow separatist rebels and government forces.
A spokesman for the Russian border guard service, when asked to comment, said: "This is stupid. Russia doesn't fire at anyone." The Russian defense ministry did not respond to a faxed request for comment.
But with no rebel presence within range inside Ukraine, it was not clear what other source there could have been for the artillery fire.
Even if rebels has somehow snuck into the area and fired the artillery, it seemed impossible they could have done that without using Russian territory to move about, given the distance from the nearest rebel-held locations.
CRATER
The crater seen by the Reuters reporter on Sunday, before the clashes with rebels, was in the corner of a field behind a defensive trench dug by the Ukrainian national guard unit. A metal fragment that appeared to come from a munition was found in the hole.
Reuters showed the photographs of the crater to four European weapons experts who said the crater was either made by an artillery rocket, most probably a Grad, or by a shell from a self-propelled 122 mm gun.
According to one of the experts, Konrad Muzyka, Europe and CIS Armed Forces Analyst with IHS, a consultancy, the maximum range for the 2S1 Gvozdika, the Soviet-designed self-propelled 122 mm gun in use in ex-Soviet states, is 15.3 km. That is extendable to 21.9 km when rocket-assisted projectiles are used, he said.
Muzyka said the maximum range for the most commonly used Grad rocket, designated as 9M22U, was 20.33 km. He said other variants have ranges of up to 40 km, but they are less widespread.
The rebels' self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) says its forces are pushing south from their main stronghold in the city Donetsk, but the settlements they said they had taken by Monday which were closest to the Novoazovsk-Veselo-Voznesenka crossing were Telmanovo, about 30 km (20 miles) away as the crow flies, and Novokaterinovka, about 60 km (40 miles) away.
That may have overstated the rebels' reach: a Reuters reporter who drove through Telmanovo twice on Sunday saw no sign of a rebel presence in or near the town.
One of the experts who reviewed the photographs, British-based independent weapons researcher Eliot Higgins, said he believed the crater was caused by a Grad rocket. He said the shape of the crater suggested the munition was fired from the north-east, the direction of the border with Russia.
The Ukrainian unit said most of the artillery struck in the area between their post and the border. Reuters was unable to inspect the other craters left behind by the strikes because of the risk the artillery fire could start up again.
Members of the unit said Russian artillery had been landing on the Ukrainian side overnight from Thursday to Friday, and again on Friday night.
On a previous visit to the area, on Aug. 1. Ukrainian border guards at the crossing point between Russia and Ukraine showed a Reuters reporter broken windows and holes in the roof of their building.
They said the damage was caused by mortar rounds fired from Russian territory. "There isn't a single insurgent around here for 50 km," said one of the border guards, Artur Zakharov. "A mortar can travel 6 (km)."
Asked by Reuters on Monday how the rebels could fire artillery so far from their positions, Andrei Purgin, DNR deputy prime minister, said: "In the conditions of modern warfare, 20 km is no kind of distance for artillery."
"This is not a war of fronts, it's a civil war. Movements of troops can take place here practically instantaneously. All of us here are insurgents. You come home, you grab your weapons and you go and shoot."
skyrover said:
There's nothing there which would suggest anything different to the issues of the EU backed Ukrainian nationalist forces trying to take ground up to the Russian border.In areas where there is a strong Russian interest and locally supportive Russian loyalist population.All with the intention of moving NATO up to Russia's border on one side and ( so far ) limited Russian resistance to that situation on the other.It seems obvious that so long as the EU/NATO backed nationalist Ukrainian side keeps pushing the Russian side will keep resisting.The only question being if/when Putin is removed from office and the Russian military then change the situation from one of limited resistance to one of all out war.
A Novarussia video has been put on Youtube which could well be the convoy crossing into Ukraine then shelling the port town Skyrover quoted earlier. The shelling happens towards the end of the video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XOuPEXQv1Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XOuPEXQv1Q
toppstuff said:
Will never happen. Russia would become bankrupt first,
The old USSR was a closed society. They traded only with themselves. No one really bought anything from them.
Loop
This has all changed. The new Russia depends on the West for its economy.
We can't be their enemy AND their biggest customer at the same time.
Great Britain was Germany biggest trading partner Before WW1, did not stop them going to war.The old USSR was a closed society. They traded only with themselves. No one really bought anything from them.
Loop
This has all changed. The new Russia depends on the West for its economy.
We can't be their enemy AND their biggest customer at the same time.
Russian media confirms Ukrainian factory equipment has been taken back to Russia
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1923359
A Russian battalion has set up its HQ in Pobjeda, near Snizhne. Presumably by mistake
https://twitter.com/NSDC_ua/status/504576964301443...
http://www.rightnow.io/breaking-news/pobjeda_bn_14...
And a list someone has compiled of all the Russian units encountered in Ukraine so far
From JUVO (South Military District?), ground forces and artillery:
- BTG from the 18th Motorised Brigade Chechnya Hankala / Kalynovska (the so-called Chechen battalion);
- BTG from the 17th Motorised Brigade Chechnya, shawls;
- BTG from the 136th Motorised Brigade Botlikh, Dagestan;
- BTG from the 205th Motorised Brigade Budeonovsk, Stavropol Territory;
- BTG from the 19th Motorized Rifle Brigade Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia;
- BTG from the 7th military base from the occupied Abkhazia, Georgia;
- BTG from the 33rd mountain infantry brigade Maikop, Adygea;
- Mixed Division from the 291st Artillery Brigade Trinity, Ingushetia.
- Mixed company from the 78th brigade logistics Budeonovsk, Stavropol region.
From Airborne:
- BTG from the 76th Division of Pskov;
- BTG from the 98th Division, Ivanovo;
- BTG of the 45 separate regiment Specialty Kubinka;
- BTG from the from the 247th Regiment of the 7th Division of Novorossiysk.
BTG / RTG and divisions of the Land Forces and artillery units JUVO:
- from the 20th Motorised Brigade Volgograd,
- 34th mountain infantry brigade Karachay-Cherkessia;
- Division from the 943rd Artillery Regiment Krasnooktyabrskoe Adygea (MLRS "Hurricane")
- Division from the 1st Missile Brigade Krasnodar (PTRC "Tochka-U", "Iskander-M").
- 23th Motorized Rifle Brigade Samara;
- BTG / RTG from Airborne - from the 56th Air Assault Brigade Volgograd,
- 106th Division Tula. - RTG / DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups)
From the parts of the GRU stationed in the South of Russia:
- the 10th brigade of special purpose Molkino Krasnodar region,
- 22th Brigade Specialty Aksai, Rostov region,
- 100th Brigade experimental razvedyvatelnoy Mozdok North Ossetia,
- 346th Brigade Specialty Cool Kabardino-Balkaria,
- 25th Regiment Specialty Stavropol;
- 2nd Brigade Specialty Pskov,
- 16th Brigade Specialty Tambov,
- 3rd Brigade Specialty Ulyanovsk.
http://freejournal.biz/article4923/index.html
It seems orienteering skills have indeed been badly neglected in the Russian Army.
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1923359
A Russian battalion has set up its HQ in Pobjeda, near Snizhne. Presumably by mistake
https://twitter.com/NSDC_ua/status/504576964301443...
http://www.rightnow.io/breaking-news/pobjeda_bn_14...
And a list someone has compiled of all the Russian units encountered in Ukraine so far
From JUVO (South Military District?), ground forces and artillery:
- BTG from the 18th Motorised Brigade Chechnya Hankala / Kalynovska (the so-called Chechen battalion);
- BTG from the 17th Motorised Brigade Chechnya, shawls;
- BTG from the 136th Motorised Brigade Botlikh, Dagestan;
- BTG from the 205th Motorised Brigade Budeonovsk, Stavropol Territory;
- BTG from the 19th Motorized Rifle Brigade Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia;
- BTG from the 7th military base from the occupied Abkhazia, Georgia;
- BTG from the 33rd mountain infantry brigade Maikop, Adygea;
- Mixed Division from the 291st Artillery Brigade Trinity, Ingushetia.
- Mixed company from the 78th brigade logistics Budeonovsk, Stavropol region.
From Airborne:
- BTG from the 76th Division of Pskov;
- BTG from the 98th Division, Ivanovo;
- BTG of the 45 separate regiment Specialty Kubinka;
- BTG from the from the 247th Regiment of the 7th Division of Novorossiysk.
BTG / RTG and divisions of the Land Forces and artillery units JUVO:
- from the 20th Motorised Brigade Volgograd,
- 34th mountain infantry brigade Karachay-Cherkessia;
- Division from the 943rd Artillery Regiment Krasnooktyabrskoe Adygea (MLRS "Hurricane")
- Division from the 1st Missile Brigade Krasnodar (PTRC "Tochka-U", "Iskander-M").
- 23th Motorized Rifle Brigade Samara;
- BTG / RTG from Airborne - from the 56th Air Assault Brigade Volgograd,
- 106th Division Tula. - RTG / DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups)
From the parts of the GRU stationed in the South of Russia:
- the 10th brigade of special purpose Molkino Krasnodar region,
- 22th Brigade Specialty Aksai, Rostov region,
- 100th Brigade experimental razvedyvatelnoy Mozdok North Ossetia,
- 346th Brigade Specialty Cool Kabardino-Balkaria,
- 25th Regiment Specialty Stavropol;
- 2nd Brigade Specialty Pskov,
- 16th Brigade Specialty Tambov,
- 3rd Brigade Specialty Ulyanovsk.
http://freejournal.biz/article4923/index.html
It seems orienteering skills have indeed been badly neglected in the Russian Army.
It's now happening... large scale incursion by Russian forces in Ukraine 
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/poland-russian-army-...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukr...
They are tying to take the Ukrainian city of Mariupol on the south coast and the so called "green men" have been spotted in the vicinity ahead of large columns of Russian armour.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/poland-russian-army-...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukr...
They are tying to take the Ukrainian city of Mariupol on the south coast and the so called "green men" have been spotted in the vicinity ahead of large columns of Russian armour.
Shame that they are giving up but no surprise, out skilled, outnumbered and fighting against better tanks etc. this new attack is key if the Russians want the whole costal area, the right sector won't retreat that easily but sadly might just go on an ethnic cleansing spree instead, pretty grim times for Ukraine
skyrover said:
It's now happening... large scale incursion by Russian forces in Ukraine
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/poland-russian-army-...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukr...
They are tying to take the Ukrainian city of Mariupol on the south coast and the so called "green men" have been spotted in the vicinity ahead of large columns of Russian armour.
Surely this is just another accident. They are clearly lost again....http://www.nasdaq.com/article/poland-russian-army-...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukr...
They are tying to take the Ukrainian city of Mariupol on the south coast and the so called "green men" have been spotted in the vicinity ahead of large columns of Russian armour.
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