Lib Dem seats after the general election ?
Discussion
Having been a party of such history, I suspect that Parliamentarily they will be relegated to the standing of a Fringe party. And that is with FPTP as opposed to PR as the electoral system.
Clegg has done that party no favours - which is ironic how he came across 4 years ago as the bright-eyed boy that Winky & CM agreed with in the debates.
He seemed to portray a chance for change.
Now...Nothing more than a modern day Esau, selling their heritage for the Mess of Pottage which was the whiff of power.
Poor show IMO.
Clegg has done that party no favours - which is ironic how he came across 4 years ago as the bright-eyed boy that Winky & CM agreed with in the debates.
He seemed to portray a chance for change.
Now...Nothing more than a modern day Esau, selling their heritage for the Mess of Pottage which was the whiff of power.
Poor show IMO.
I've said this before: what I think will be interesting is the seats in the South West where it's a fight between the Tories and the Libdems. My own seat is a LD/Tory marginal.
One assumes they are both going to lose voter share but Labour are vanishingly far behind.
So anything could happen!
One assumes they are both going to lose voter share but Labour are vanishingly far behind.
So anything could happen!
Johnnytheboy said:
I've said this before: what I think will be interesting is the seats in the South West where it's a fight between the Tories and the Libdems. My own seat is a LD/Tory marginal.
One assumes they are both going to lose voter share but Labour are vanishingly far behind.
So anything could happen!
Unless UKIP can gain a foothold I'd foresee a couple of seats for "spoiled ballot" or "couldn't be ar5sed".One assumes they are both going to lose voter share but Labour are vanishingly far behind.
So anything could happen!
Johnnytheboy said:
I've said this before: what I think will be interesting is the seats in the South West where it's a fight between the Tories and the Libdems. My own seat is a LD/Tory marginal.
One assumes they are both going to lose voter share but Labour are vanishingly far behind.
So anything could happen!
This is a point that I've been banging on about when I read on here that the lib dems are going to get "annihilated" in the 2015 GE. Around here its a tory/ lib dem fight too - labour sometimes get to keep their deposit, and UKIP haven't got a cat in hell's chance of coming from nowhere to win it.One assumes they are both going to lose voter share but Labour are vanishingly far behind.
So anything could happen!
"Ooh look, their national poll ratings have taken a hammering so they'll get no seats/ be holding parliamentary meetings in a phone box" etc etc
Politics ain't that simple. As I recall, there has only been one by-election in a lib dem seat since 2010, and that after the sitting MP had to stand down because he'd broken the 11th commandment. Can anybody remember which party won it?
Well the Lib Dems won it obviously, but that also works two ways.
National % trend in a poll is no indication of actual seats won, as the Liberals and LD have used to their advantage over the decades, i.e. pockets of local activists and support. That's why any sensible poll analyst takes the 'national' figures, preferably using the regional weighting and then has a model which drills down to constituency level and uses that snapshot to try and predict a result.
There are some seats where the LD are completely irrelevant, some where they are not. Nevertheless they will not be annihilated but will most likely have a poor result compared to 2010.
But just taking the national % figure, which at this stage always includes a massive element of don't knows and maybe not even vote returns, and just take the positive returns and then dials that into Commons seats is primary school stuff. The issue is that there are significant differences as to what is happening this time around, the effects of which in GE are largely unknown. This is why it makes the 2015 prediction so difficult.
National % trend in a poll is no indication of actual seats won, as the Liberals and LD have used to their advantage over the decades, i.e. pockets of local activists and support. That's why any sensible poll analyst takes the 'national' figures, preferably using the regional weighting and then has a model which drills down to constituency level and uses that snapshot to try and predict a result.
There are some seats where the LD are completely irrelevant, some where they are not. Nevertheless they will not be annihilated but will most likely have a poor result compared to 2010.
But just taking the national % figure, which at this stage always includes a massive element of don't knows and maybe not even vote returns, and just take the positive returns and then dials that into Commons seats is primary school stuff. The issue is that there are significant differences as to what is happening this time around, the effects of which in GE are largely unknown. This is why it makes the 2015 prediction so difficult.
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