Hottest August in 300 yrs?
Discussion
Jimbeaux said:
We have had two genuine cold fronts, in July, pushing all the way down to tropical Louisiana. It was 61 degrees F. for a week in the mornings here. People in their 80s here cannot say they ever saw it that cool in the summer here in their lifetime.
Same effect as the cold snaps the US had in the winter. This time caused by the cyclones in the Western Pacific causing the jet stream to buckle. This time the UK gained 
Jimbeaux said:
We have had two genuine cold fronts, in July, pushing all the way down to tropical Louisiana. It was 61 degrees F. for a week in the mornings here. People in their 80s here cannot say they ever saw it that cool in the summer here in their lifetime.
Here in Yorkshire we have had plenty of sunshine for the last three weeks.The odd thunder shower but we can't complain.Last winter was mild and wet, little snow and ice.The weather here is very unpredictable do.A few climate changes in a day is not unusual.
lamboman100 said:
The UK Summer temperature peak arrives on August 12th, in about a week.
Really? Based on Met office data - the peak maximum and minimum temperatures both occur in July.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19...
The UK seasonal lag is approximately 4 weeks.
Edited by Moonhawk on Sunday 3rd August 20:51
Moonhawk said:
lamboman100 said:
The UK Summer temperature peak arrives on August 12th, in about a week.
Really? Based on Met office data - the peak maximum and minimum temperatures both occur in July.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19...
The UK seasonal lag is approximately 4 weeks.
Edited by Moonhawk on Sunday 3rd August 20:51
And on average most places do record the highest daytime temperature for the year in August.
The season cools quicker than it warms, which probably brings the average for the whole month down below July marginally.
It's statistics, everybody can be 'right'. Just depends how you look at it I expect.
Mr GrimNasty said:
That's only for a fairly short period, if you take a longer term average.......
And on average most places do record the highest daytime temperature for the year in August.
Longer term average data - again from the met office. This runs from 1910 to present - and show that the maximum, minimum and average temperatures for July are higher in all cases except for the maximum min temperature recorded in 2006 (possibly an anomaly):And on average most places do record the highest daytime temperature for the year in August.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/
Maximum Max Temp = 23.2 vs 22.7
Average Max Temp = 18.8 vs 18.6
Minimum Max Temp = 16.2 vs 15.2
Maximum Mean Temp = 17.8 vs 17.3
Average Mean Temp = 14.6 vs 14.5
Minimum Mean Temp = 12.3 vs 11.7
Maximum Min Temp = 12.5 vs 12.7
Average Min Temp = 10.5 vs 10.4
Minimum Min Temp = 8.5 vs 8.2
Over 100 years of data point towards the fact that August in the UK is, on average, cooler than July.
Edited by Moonhawk on Monday 4th August 00:09
That's still a very very very short period of time.
You've deliberately missed the point I made that the highest daily max. is 'usually' registered in August.
As I said, the season cools faster in later August, bringing down the average August temperature slightly below July.
As I also said, you can prove anything with statistics.
The original point about the 12th August that you chose to pick a fight with IS CORRECT.
As another point, the Met Office dataset is so messed with in the pursuit of proving AGW, it isn't worth a nickel.
There is no argument.
You've deliberately missed the point I made that the highest daily max. is 'usually' registered in August.
As I said, the season cools faster in later August, bringing down the average August temperature slightly below July.
As I also said, you can prove anything with statistics.
The original point about the 12th August that you chose to pick a fight with IS CORRECT.
As another point, the Met Office dataset is so messed with in the pursuit of proving AGW, it isn't worth a nickel.
There is no argument.
Mr GrimNasty said:
That's still a very very very short period of time.
What period of time are you talking about then? Where are you getting the data to support the assertion that August the 12th is the hottest day?Mr GrimNasty said:
You've deliberately missed the point I made that the highest daily max. is 'usually' registered in August.
Not according to the met office data - I quoted the maximum recorded temperatures in August - and they are lower than July. Out of the 102 years data available from the met office website - July recorded a higher maximum temperature in 56 of those years.Mr GrimNasty said:
As I said, the season cools faster in later August, bringing down the average August temperature slightly below July.
That would affect the average temperature recorded - but not the maximum temperature recorded (which I also quoted)
Mr GrimNasty said:
As I also said, you can prove anything with statistics.
Well - not really, that's just a cop out statement. What else are we going to use to prove that August is hotter than July without using statistics? If you can show the data/methodology I have used is flawed - or my conclusions incorrect - then by all means.Mr GrimNasty said:
The original point about the 12th August that you chose to pick a fight with IS CORRECT.
I'm not "picking a fight". I just believe that based on the available data/evidence - the assertion is flawed. There is no reason to get uppity about it. I'm happy to accept the assertion if there is data to support it.Mr GrimNasty said:
As another point, the Met Office dataset is so messed with in the pursuit of proving AGW, it isn't worth a nickel.
There is no argument.
Well - all of my posts do contain the caveat that it is based on met office data - if you have access to what you consider an 'unbiased' data source - i'm happy to take a look.There is no argument.
Edited by Moonhawk on Monday 4th August 11:30
Edited by Moonhawk on Monday 4th August 15:49
Mr GrimNasty said:
Like I said, you are just being argumentative and selective. Weather stats. are vastly complex.
There is no argument, you are just representing the data differently.
I'm not being argumentative. I'm not even sure why you are pursuing this, it wasn't even your assertion I challenged. There is no argument, you are just representing the data differently.
I challenged an assertion made by another poster and you immediately jumped on my post, trying to poke holes in my line of reasoning without providing any supporting evidence/data. What's that if not being argumentative.
I'm not being selective - I was open and honest about my data source (even linking to it so others can double check I haven't made a mistake) - and my analysis looked at all years of data available for the whole UK. I haven't cherry picked the data.
Mr GrimNasty said:
And for the record, the average temp for August is 21, and July 20, for my location.
For your location?........and you accuse me of being selective.The assertion was that the UK temperature peaks on the 12th August. Of course it's possible there are local micro climates or anomalies scattered throughout the UK that buck the met office UK data trend - but the assertion wasn't for a specific location in the UK - it was for the UK as a whole.
It is that assertion I am challenging since the data doesn't appear to support it. As I said - if you can provide data which contradicts the met office data and/or shows my analysis to be incorrect - i'll happily look at it.
Edited by Moonhawk on Monday 4th August 14:31
Are you autistic? Why do you dissect general comments which are made as an example of how things are not so simple. (rhetorical BTW)
The fact is that even the average temperatures for JUL & AUG in the UK are nip and tuck, take one town 2 miles from another, one has a warmer average August than July and vice versa. It also depends what you regard as the temperature average - just the average of the absolute daily max, or the average of the temperature taken every hour, every minute, every second? All will give different results.
But back to the original point, if you aren't educated enough to understand that a peak can occur in one period, but that period may have a lower average, there's really nothing more I can say.
If you care to look at record maximum temperatures, you will discover they occur predominantly in one month - AUGUST.
And as you have history of being a pointlessly circular argumentative individual, that is my last comment on the matter.
The fact is that even the average temperatures for JUL & AUG in the UK are nip and tuck, take one town 2 miles from another, one has a warmer average August than July and vice versa. It also depends what you regard as the temperature average - just the average of the absolute daily max, or the average of the temperature taken every hour, every minute, every second? All will give different results.
But back to the original point, if you aren't educated enough to understand that a peak can occur in one period, but that period may have a lower average, there's really nothing more I can say.
If you care to look at record maximum temperatures, you will discover they occur predominantly in one month - AUGUST.
And as you have history of being a pointlessly circular argumentative individual, that is my last comment on the matter.
Mr GrimNasty said:
Are you autistic? Why do you dissect general comments which are made as an example of how things are not so simple. (rhetorical BTW)
Why resort to name calling? The person who made the assertion didn't make a general comment - they were very specific about the date.Mr GrimNasty said:
The fact is that even the average temperatures for JUL & AUG in the UK are nip and tuck, take one town 2 miles from another, one has a warmer average August than July and vice versa. It also depends what you regard as the temperature average - just the average of the absolute daily max, or the average of the temperature taken every hour, every minute, every second? All will give different results.
Why are you so adamant to disprove what I wrote - yet appear unable to provide any supporting data. Why not just post the data you are basing your argument on as I have done? There is no point throwing tit for tat insults if we aren't looking at the same data.If what you assert is true based on the data you are looking at - then why can't you accept that my statements may also be true based on the data set I am looking at. If you post the source of your data - at least it will be clear why we are drawing different conclusions.
Mr GrimNasty said:
But back to the original point, if you aren't educated enough to understand that a peak can occur in one period, but that period may have a lower average, there's really nothing more I can say.
More name calling.....I totally understand that a peak can occur in data that has an overall lower average - hence the reason I posted information on both the average and max temperature data. Over the period 1910 - 2012, both the average temperature recorded and the maximum temperature recorded was higher in July - so what you are asserting (that August's temperature average is lower - but its peak is higher - doesn't ring true).
Mr GrimNasty said:
If you care to look at record maximum temperatures, you will discover they occur predominantly in one month - AUGUST.
Are you even reading my posts - or just arguing for the sake of it. I already stated above that I did look at the maximum recorded temperatures. From 1910 to 2012 - July had a higher recorded maximum temperature in 56 out of 102 years when compared to August.Mr GrimNasty said:
And as you have history of being a pointlessly circular argumentative individual, that is my last comment on the matter.
More name calling.....is there any need really? 
Edited by Moonhawk on Monday 4th August 15:51
First we had scorchio, then we had wet wet wet, now it looks likely to be a flash and sprinkle job.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hur...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hur...
Moonhawk said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
Are you autistic? Why do you dissect general comments which are made as an example of how things are not so simple. (rhetorical BTW)
Why resort to name calling? The person who made the assertion didn't make a general comment - they were very specific about the date.Mr GrimNasty said:
The fact is that even the average temperatures for JUL & AUG in the UK are nip and tuck, take one town 2 miles from another, one has a warmer average August than July and vice versa. It also depends what you regard as the temperature average - just the average of the absolute daily max, or the average of the temperature taken every hour, every minute, every second? All will give different results.
Why are you so adamant to disprove what I wrote - yet appear unable to provide any supporting data. Why not just post the data you are basing your argument on as I have done? There is no point throwing tit for tat insults if we aren't looking at the same data.If what you assert is true based on the data you are looking at - then why can't you accept that my statements may also be true based on the data set I am looking at. If you post the source of your data - at least it will be clear why we are drawing different conclusions.
Mr GrimNasty said:
But back to the original point, if you aren't educated enough to understand that a peak can occur in one period, but that period may have a lower average, there's really nothing more I can say.
More name calling.....I totally understand that a peak can occur in data that has an overall lower average - hence the reason I posted information on both the average and max temperature data. Over the period 1910 - 2012, both the average temperature recorded and the maximum temperature recorded was higher in July - so what you are asserting (that August's temperature average is lower - but its peak is higher - doesn't ring true).
Mr GrimNasty said:
If you care to look at record maximum temperatures, you will discover they occur predominantly in one month - AUGUST.
Are you even reading my posts - or just arguing for the sake of it. I already stated above that I did look at the maximum recorded temperatures. From 1910 to 2012 - July had a higher recorded maximum temperature in 56 out of 102 years when compared to August.Mr GrimNasty said:
And as you have history of being a pointlessly circular argumentative individual, that is my last comment on the matter.
More name calling.....is there any need really? Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 4th August 15:51
Dear me.
REALIST123 said:
Moonhawk said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
Are you autistic? Why do you dissect general comments which are made as an example of how things are not so simple. (rhetorical BTW)
Why resort to name calling? The person who made the assertion didn't make a general comment - they were very specific about the date.Mr GrimNasty said:
The fact is that even the average temperatures for JUL & AUG in the UK are nip and tuck, take one town 2 miles from another, one has a warmer average August than July and vice versa. It also depends what you regard as the temperature average - just the average of the absolute daily max, or the average of the temperature taken every hour, every minute, every second? All will give different results.
Why are you so adamant to disprove what I wrote - yet appear unable to provide any supporting data. Why not just post the data you are basing your argument on as I have done? There is no point throwing tit for tat insults if we aren't looking at the same data.If what you assert is true based on the data you are looking at - then why can't you accept that my statements may also be true based on the data set I am looking at. If you post the source of your data - at least it will be clear why we are drawing different conclusions.
Mr GrimNasty said:
But back to the original point, if you aren't educated enough to understand that a peak can occur in one period, but that period may have a lower average, there's really nothing more I can say.
More name calling.....I totally understand that a peak can occur in data that has an overall lower average - hence the reason I posted information on both the average and max temperature data. Over the period 1910 - 2012, both the average temperature recorded and the maximum temperature recorded was higher in July - so what you are asserting (that August's temperature average is lower - but its peak is higher - doesn't ring true).
Mr GrimNasty said:
If you care to look at record maximum temperatures, you will discover they occur predominantly in one month - AUGUST.
Are you even reading my posts - or just arguing for the sake of it. I already stated above that I did look at the maximum recorded temperatures. From 1910 to 2012 - July had a higher recorded maximum temperature in 56 out of 102 years when compared to August.Mr GrimNasty said:
And as you have history of being a pointlessly circular argumentative individual, that is my last comment on the matter.
More name calling.....is there any need really? Edited by Moonhawk on Monday 4th August 15:51
Dear me.
Really? I hope not as that means we will have rain of biblical proportions.
Does anyone pay any attention to what the met office or these rags have to say about the weather?
Wasn't last winter predicted to have been the driest on record? Anyone remember the floods?
The previous winter was supposed to have had more snow than the previous two years combined. It was grey and manky!
And what of the previous predictions of a BBQ summer? It was dank and miserable.
I just take what they predict and turn it 180 degrees, I am often more right than they are.
Does anyone pay any attention to what the met office or these rags have to say about the weather?
Wasn't last winter predicted to have been the driest on record? Anyone remember the floods?
The previous winter was supposed to have had more snow than the previous two years combined. It was grey and manky!
And what of the previous predictions of a BBQ summer? It was dank and miserable.
I just take what they predict and turn it 180 degrees, I am often more right than they are.
Oldred_V8S said:
Really? I hope not as that means we will have rain of biblical proportions.
Does anyone pay any attention to what the met office or these rags have to say about the weather?
Wasn't last winter predicted to have been the driest on record? Anyone remember the floods?
The previous winter was supposed to have had more snow than the previous two years combined. It was grey and manky!
And what of the previous predictions of a BBQ summer? It was dank and miserable.
I just take what they predict and turn it 180 degrees, I am often more right than they are.
In my experience ( and I'm generalising of course) the weather in places where most people live in the UK is so benign that I don't think its worth looking at a forecast unless something's absolutely crucial.Does anyone pay any attention to what the met office or these rags have to say about the weather?
Wasn't last winter predicted to have been the driest on record? Anyone remember the floods?
The previous winter was supposed to have had more snow than the previous two years combined. It was grey and manky!
And what of the previous predictions of a BBQ summer? It was dank and miserable.
I just take what they predict and turn it 180 degrees, I am often more right than they are.
When it's cold it's not really cold, minus 2 or 3, when it's hot it's not really hot 27/28 and people get excited.
Talk of rain and monsoon conditions is always odd, I suppose most have never experienced a monsoon where literally feet of rain can fall in a day, an inch in the UK ( often expressed in millimetres to make it sound more ) and it's on the front page of the papers , same with snow.
I know here are localised events but generally look out the window and you won't be far wrong.
Plus people have very short memories.
I showed my mum a write up of how good the summer had been and she nodded saying how much better it was than last year. The article was for 2013 so there you go.
No, for me the worst most get is the need to wear a jacket or carry an umbrella and for that kind of weather we really don't need the massive input of the met office and forecasters on TV three or four times an hour.
Thankyou4calling said:
In my experience ( and I'm generalising of course) the weather in places where most people live in the UK is so benign that I don't think its worth looking at a forecast unless something's absolutely crucial.
When it's cold it's not really cold, minus 2 or 3, when it's hot it's not really hot 27/28 and people get excited.
Talk of rain and monsoon conditions is always odd, I suppose most have never experienced a monsoon where literally feet of rain can fall in a day, an inch in the UK ( often expressed in millimetres to make it sound more ) and it's on the front page of the papers , same with snow.
I know here are localised events but generally look out the window and you won't be far wrong.
Plus people have very short memories.
I showed my mum a write up of how good the summer had been and she nodded saying how much better it was than last year. The article was for 2013 so there you go.
No, for me the worst most get is the need to wear a jacket or carry an umbrella and for that kind of weather we really don't need the massive input of the met office and forecasters on TV three or four times an hour.
You are right about uk 'monsoons', but this summer has been much better than 2013, which in turn was better than 2012.When it's cold it's not really cold, minus 2 or 3, when it's hot it's not really hot 27/28 and people get excited.
Talk of rain and monsoon conditions is always odd, I suppose most have never experienced a monsoon where literally feet of rain can fall in a day, an inch in the UK ( often expressed in millimetres to make it sound more ) and it's on the front page of the papers , same with snow.
I know here are localised events but generally look out the window and you won't be far wrong.
Plus people have very short memories.
I showed my mum a write up of how good the summer had been and she nodded saying how much better it was than last year. The article was for 2013 so there you go.
No, for me the worst most get is the need to wear a jacket or carry an umbrella and for that kind of weather we really don't need the massive input of the met office and forecasters on TV three or four times an hour.
madbadger said:
You are right about uk 'monsoons', but this summer has been much better than 2013, which in turn was better than 2012.
This summers not over yet ( June, July, August) so you can't tell.Met office official stats show 2013 to have been the hottest, driest and sunniest sumner since 2006.
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