Tory MP defection.

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Discussion

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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Chrisgr31 said:
So we think he is a man of principle because he has resigned and caused a by-election. However bearing in mind conservative policy hasn't changed recently, why has he gone now? Equally why should we have to pay for a by-election a mere 8 months or so before a general election?

The reality is that he is just seek publicity or himself and therefore a standard politician.
You are in a minority there. The people who know him better than we do all state that he is indeed highly principled. He explained himself quite well on his blog, basically he eventually stopped believing Cameron after being told that the objective was to just do enough to fool people into thinking we will have a better arrangement with the EU.

Derek Smith

45,512 posts

247 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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rs1952 said:
My starting point was from the Representation of the People Act 1928, which in essence introduced universal suffrage. Since that time, 86 years ago, there have been two cases of "extreme" governments being elected (I quoted one, you quoted the other). Attlee had a single term before the conservatives were returned to power, and the conservatives IMHO only survived beyond 1983 because the opposition had made itself unelectable. 86 years is not exactly a short time frame and two "extreme" governments got themselves elected. Even if you include the whole of the 11.5 years of the Thatcher government (you can't really include John Major's later administration), that gives you a little under 18 years of "extreme" governments out of the last 86, or just a fraction over 20%.

The data seems to stack up to me smile
Atlee won two elections - pedantry matters. Indeed he was 'famous' as the longest serving labour PM until some other bloke beat him. He was also deputy PM to Chamberlain and during the war time coalition.

Despite what you read in the histories, especially those written by him, Churchill wasn't quite so well loved by the population as modern myth tells us. Indeed, he was often booed in and around London right up until D Day.

Labour lost the 51 election because they wanted austerity - there was a war on you remember and he had to join in to an extent - to continue and Churchill's party suggested that they would stop it - although they added more thing to rationing if my gran was to be believed, and I didn't have the nerve even to check. After the inter-war years, then the war itself plus post war austerity, that's over 30 years of struggle, Churchill's promise, although not fully fulfilled, must have been tempting. Atlee kept a tight rein on spending - the antithesis of what one thinks of as socialism, and a stark contrast to both right and left parties that followed.

The labour administration after the war was not really an extreme one in the sense of socialist. There were some ultra left socialists, bordering communists, in the labour government, but there were also some who would have had to take a long step to the left to be middle ground. The socialism was a necessity - Atlee was more or less a Cameron clone for his upbringing and class aspirations. With a devastated infrastructure and no money - we were totally broke, not like now - there was little option other than a return to the dreadful recession of the post WWI debacle, and no one wanted that.

There was no railway as such, no coal coming out of the ground, no steel, certainly none for home consumption, and road transport was seen as part and parcel of the railway network. Look how long it took to build the first motorway.

The more I read about Atlee and the way he governed, and he was in control of the domestic side during the war, he is becoming something of a hero. The way he managed the extremists in his own party, both sides, at least for most of the time, is an example many PMs could have usefully followed. Mind you, it shortened his life.

We could do with him now.


AJS-

15,366 posts

235 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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RS
The numbers do stack up in the sense you outline them. That bald statistic misses two things though.

Think about the most historically important governments of the last 86 years and the two "extremists" - Atlee and Thatcher - have to be up there.

Secondly, the times between extremist governments can be easily but wrongly dismissed as settled middle of the road parties swapping power every few years when in fact they're actually the times that ideas gain momentum and become game changers.

The gestation period seems to be about 40 years which broadly ties in with a generation of MPs and voters. The Labour party took about this time to go from a newly formed party to an actual government under Atlee, and 40 years after that their "social contract" fell apart as the Thatcher government came to power. By the end of the next parliament it will be 40 years since 1979 and it seems realistic to me to expect that around this time we will see some sort or a new era in British politics.

unrepentant

21,212 posts

255 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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AJS- said:
Think about the most historically important governments of the last 86 years and the two "extremists" - Atlee and Thatcher - have to be up there.
Atlee and Thatcher are probably the two most important PM's of the 20th Century and their premierships both ushered in huge change. Things had to change post war and they did with the advent of the welfare state and the NHS. Considering that he was able to do everything that he needed to do whilst dealing with a terrible economy and the sudden end of lend-lease and all that entailed Atlee was a remarkable PM in my opinion.

By the same token Thatcher took over a country that was in dire straits with union power at extraordinary levels and 29 million working days being lost to strikes in the year of her election. She of course crushed them and by the end of her tenure trade union membership had fallen by a 3rd and their powers severely curtailed. Her "extremism" came after the '83 election with the mass privatisation of British industry and the poll tax. had it not been for the Falklands war none of that may have happened as she would almost certainly have been a one term PM.

irocfan

40,152 posts

189 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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unrepentant said:
I lived in rural North Yorkshire, the black community could be counted on 1 finger. His name was Terry, he lived 2 villages away and he was a terribly nice chap.
what a strange comment... why on earth would he not be a terribly nice chap just because he's black?

eharding

13,599 posts

283 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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irocfan said:
unrepentant said:
I lived in rural North Yorkshire, the black community could be counted on 1 finger. His name was Terry, he lived 2 villages away and he was a terribly nice chap.
what a strange comment... why on earth would he not be a terribly nice chap just because he's black?
Because it's always a pleasant surprise to find a terribly nice chap in rural North Yorkshire, regardless of ethnicity?

They're all dour types up there, faces like a bull-whippet chewing a wasp that's been licking fox wee off a nettle, and don't hold with that lah-de-dah-Gunner-Graham 'terribly nice chap' carry-on.

MGJohn

10,203 posts

182 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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unrepentant said:
Walford said:
Europe is failing, we can all see that, we need to get control of our boarders before the wheel falls of Europe completely,
Yeah, get control of those pesky boarders. Make sure they do their full hour of prep each night or close the tuck shop!
Boarders and freeloaders crossing the borders. In their fousands.

Ought to be a law agin it.

MGJohn

10,203 posts

182 months

Friday 29th August 2014
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unrepentant said:
rs1952 said:
It also never ceases to amaze me that some people believe it. Here's a bit more history:

After losing the 1979 GE the labour party lurched to the left. They stayed out of power for 18 years
After losing the 1997 GE the conservative party lurched to the right. They haven't won an election outright since then, and would not have had a majority government for 18 years.

Those who preach that the conservative party should move further to the right to get their "true" supporters back are essentially the mirror image of Arthur Scargill and the loony left back in the 80s who thought that all that was needed was a further move to the left, and they would then romp back to power.

The UK population like, and vote for, centrist governments. The only exception to that rule since the introduction of universal suffrage was the 1979 conservative victory, and that had more to do with excessive power being wielded by the trades unions than a desire within the population for a right wing government.

There comes a time, when it is clear the medicine isn't working, to stop increasing the dose. The right of the political spectrum in the UK may not have realised it yet.
You're quite right and your argument stands in most places, not just the UK.

Conservative activists would like to move to the right, ditto their membership I'm sure. The public however dislike extremes on either wing. It's a lesson the republicans in the USA have still not learned. Candidates tack far to the right to appease their base in order to get the nomination and then can't tack back to the centre when it comes to broadening their appeal.
rs1952's post has lots of merit. A refreshing read for this observer.

Gaspode

4,167 posts

195 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
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MGJohn said:
rs1952's post has lots of merit. A refreshing read for this observer.
Indeed. It's good to see a decent level of analysis here.

Walford

2,259 posts

165 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
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MGJohn said:
unrepentant said:
Walford said:
Europe is failing, we can all see that, we need to get control of our boarders before the wheel falls of Europe completely,
Yeah, get control of those pesky boarders. Make sure they do their full hour of prep each night or close the tuck shop!
Boarders and freeloaders crossing the borders. In their fousands.

Ought to be a law agin it.
all very amusing, but naive, we need to be prepared for the Euro zone collapse
.

Gaspode

4,167 posts

195 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
Walford said:
all very amusing, but naive, we need to be prepared for the Euro zone collapse
.
What is going to happen, and how do we need to be prepared?

bad company

18,483 posts

265 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
Walford said:
all very amusing, but naive, we need to be prepared for the Euro zone collapse
.
Do you really, honestly believe that is likely?

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
bad company said:
Walford said:
all very amusing, but naive, we need to be prepared for the Euro zone collapse
.
Do you really, honestly believe that is likely?
It's possible, so the question is 'how likely'.

Gaspode

4,167 posts

195 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
It's possible, so the question is 'how likely'.
So what is meant by a 'Euro Zone collapse' and how likely do you think it is?

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
Gaspode said:
turbobloke said:
It's possible, so the question is 'how likely'.
So what is meant by a 'Euro Zone collapse' and how likely do you think it is?
My view...it's not imminent, so while the chances are small at the moment, they're not zero.

Possibly the most practical definition of eurozone collapse is when the drones in charge run out of illegal as well as legal means of keeping it from collapsing, and one or more country in dire straits breaks loose in a messy way with resulting eurochaos.

league67

1,878 posts

202 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
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schmunk said:
dandarez said:
Oh christ, don't bother, the penny's dropped.

'Real estate'. rolleyes

Oh and to add, 'aging and white' describes most of the UK, not just Clacton and Frinton.

Jeez!
If Unrepentant won't bite, I will. 'My area' is staunch Conservative (although I am not) but the BNP only registered 1% in the 2010 General Election. It is not 'that sort of area'.

For reference, the national average was 1.9%.

At nigh-on 5%, Clacton is 'that sort of area'.
Also having 'United States' in his profile might be a clue, unless your eyesight, or comprehension ability, is failing. In 'my area' BNP had less that 1% and at locals UKIP came last.


league67

1,878 posts

202 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
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research said:
because of the demographics in Clacton, which are ideal for UKIP - this is a struggling, coastal seat, lots of older, white voters, few minority voters, it's classic left-behind territory
steveT350C said:
so that will be the majority of the UK electorate then?
Probably majority in your social circles, not majority of UK electorate, otherwise UKIP would be on course for outright GE victory.

HTH.

Gaspode

4,167 posts

195 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
My view...it's not imminent, so while the chances are small at the moment, they're not zero.

Possibly the most practical definition of eurozone collapse is when the drones in charge run out of illegal as well as legal means of keeping it from collapsing, and one or more country in dire straits breaks loose in a messy way with resulting eurochaos.
How is the ECB acting illegally?

league67

1,878 posts

202 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
Chrisgr31 said:
So we think he is a man of principle because he has resigned and caused a by-election. However bearing in mind conservative policy hasn't changed recently, why has he gone now? Equally why should we have to pay for a by-election a mere 8 months or so before a general election?

The reality is that he is just seek publicity or himself and therefore a standard politician.
No, he has defected, as a tory he was merely a DC stooge to the point that nobody knew about him till about 3 days ago, and the cleansing process that is performed on all politicians who decide to join UKIP is the proof that he's now not just principled, most honest politician ever but one who'll never pander to local demographics. Saying things 'like unsustainable strain on local NHS caused by immigration' in area like Clacton, is the proof. That strain would never be caused by, I don't know, his target audience, it's always someone else's fault. It's just another 'msm' conspiracy.

league67

1,878 posts

202 months

Saturday 30th August 2014
quotequote all
Gaspode said:
Walford said:
all very amusing, but naive, we need to be prepared for the Euro zone collapse
.
What is going to happen, and how do we need to be prepared?
You are asking that question too soon. Breibart has not published stock answer to that question yet. Give it time. How unfair of you.