Tory MP defection.
Discussion
schmunk said:
Mr_B said:
Explain please.
Read the rest of the thread.Can you list other majority Tory areas that are also one of " those areas " , or could you just mention any likely UK favorable seats that aren't one of " those areas " ? Do any exist in your view ?
Over 2000 votes for the English Democrats? Yep, one of those areas.
And Mark Reckless appears to have an interesting history. Too drunk to vote. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
UKIP certainly knows how to pick 'em.
And Mark Reckless appears to have an interesting history. Too drunk to vote. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
UKIP certainly knows how to pick 'em.
TKF said:
Over 2000 votes for the English Democrats? Yep, one of those areas.
And Mark Reckless appears to have an interesting history. Too drunk to vote. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
UKIP certainly knows how to pick 'em.
Well the guy sending pics of his sausage was and still is a Conservative!And Mark Reckless appears to have an interesting history. Too drunk to vote. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
UKIP certainly knows how to pick 'em.
TKF said:
Over 2000 votes for the English Democrats? Yep, one of those areas.
And Mark Reckless appears to have an interesting history. Too drunk to vote. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
UKIP certainly knows how to pick 'em.
Oh dear. He WAS a TORY!And Mark Reckless appears to have an interesting history. Too drunk to vote. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
UKIP certainly knows how to pick 'em.
Just watched Nigel Farage on the Andrew Marr show. Whether or not you like UKIP and its policies, it cannot be denied that this guy is unequivocal on issues, answers the questions asked and represents a refreshing approach. No wonder he has appeal to other MPs and the other party leaders might learn a few things from such a straightforward, no nonsense approach.
MarshPhantom said:
Interesting times tor The Tories.
Even more interesting for Labour. The Tory core vote is holding up well and providing CMD can maintain a centrist line and deliver a recovering economy he is in the driving seat. 1 - 5 Tory MPs buggering off to UKIP is entirely acceptable as they are still banker boys when it comes to govt time .
Labour though are only just realising that Nige is an absolute weapon to their heartland vote. UKIP haven't been a "Tory" problem for a cpl of yrs, they have been an all party problem. The MEP voting was only half at Tory expense the other gains were ripping voters from labour. From an electoral strategy pov though for Labour is this now represents an unquantified threat to them at the polls. How badly will they lose votes? How much can UKIP take from them on Election Day? My own guess is that Labour will lose 10% of their vote to Nige across the country... Inc Scotland. That will deliver a hammer blow to Scottish Labour MPs and in total.
Farage is going to play the Salmon card on a national scale now but with far more personality and big stage experience than Eck ever had. UKIP might get 5 MPs at the GE but they will cause havoc in damn nr every seat.
DJRC said:
Even more interesting for Labour.
The Tory core vote is holding up well and providing CMD can maintain a centrist line and deliver a recovering economy he is in the driving seat. 1 - 5 Tory MPs buggering off to UKIP is entirely acceptable as they are still banker boys when it comes to govt time .
This isn't how I'd put it. Enough of the Tory core vote has gone to UKIP to mean that a 'same old' strategy from Cameron guarantees he will lose the next election. The Tory core vote is holding up well and providing CMD can maintain a centrist line and deliver a recovering economy he is in the driving seat. 1 - 5 Tory MPs buggering off to UKIP is entirely acceptable as they are still banker boys when it comes to govt time .
Labour have one of the most useless leaders ever, and still the Conservatives are significantly behind in the polls. Failing to win boundary changes means that on current numbers there will be a healthy Labour majority at the next election.
I use my mother as a helpful marker on the 'Tory core vote' - in her 60s, does stuff for the national trust, has never voted other than Conservative for her whole life (apart from the last European elections). She's still saying she will vote UKIP at the next election; as a former activist and leaflet deliverer I thought she'd be back in Cameron's fold by now!
Indeed. I think the Labour vote is if anything more vulnerable. It's been more than 30 years since a really left wing Labour party has been in power, and frankly I don't think there's the stomach in the country for that sort of government any more. Labour's pro-EU, pro-immigration stance puts them in opposition to the two cornerstones of UKIP, and I think the electorate will lean towards UKIP rather than Labour on those matters.
unrepentant said:
jimbobsimmonds said:
As a constituent I will agree there are some of 'those areas' but all in, it isn't that bad. There is a lot of rural areas, not full of 'those' types, on my road alone there is an Aston, 2 Bentley's, numerous Rangies; none of 'those' types; and some of Rochester is positive ly lovely. But bits are s
t! Bit like anywhere really...
Driving a Bentley or an Aston doesn't preclude someone from being a xenophobic little Englander.t! Bit like anywhere really... Any questioning of unlimited immigration into a small overcrowded island, or why we should be ruled by Brussels instead of our elected representatives apparently makes you a "Xenophobic little Englander"
This might represent the future. Constituencies wanting proper Conservative values switching to UKIP, as well as Northern areas that would never vote Tory, and a rump Conservative party for other areas.
David Davis on the Sunday Politics today made some interesting points. He said that a quarter of the 2010 Tory voters have left them and 3/4 of that group are now with UKIP. He said that many within his party are simply banking on voters 'sobering up' and switching from UKIP to Tory as the polls near. He also said that they could cope with UKIP moving on from the 3% they polled in 2010 to 5% but anything more and it's a massive headache.
It's not much of a strategy is it.
It's not much of a strategy is it.
BlackLabel said:
David Davis on the Sunday Politics today made some interesting points. He said that a quarter of the 2010 Tory voters have left them and 3/4 of that group are now with UKIP. He said that many within his party are simply banking on voters 'sobering up' and switching from UKIP to Tory as the polls near. He also said that they could cope with UKIP moving on from the 3% they polled in 2010 to 5% but anything more and it's a massive headache.
It's not much of a strategy is it.
"Sobering up"?It's not much of a strategy is it.
No chance!
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