Tory MP defection.
Discussion
BlackLabel said:
David Davis on the Sunday Politics today made some interesting points. He said that a quarter of the 2010 Tory voters have left them and 3/4 of that group are now with UKIP. He said that many within his party are simply banking on voters 'sobering up' and switching from UKIP to Tory as the polls near. He also said that they could cope with UKIP moving on from the 3% they polled in 2010 to 5% but anything more and it's a massive headache.
It's not much of a strategy is it.
The Tories seem resigned to losing the next election. Cameron will go, let's see who replaces him. It's not much of a strategy is it.
Oa the Tories aren't going to lose the next election. The worst will be a Tory/ukip coalition.
The UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it. The UK electorate isn't any never has been as stupid as the politically minded like to think because by and large they get exactly the govt they want. Moreover they get the leader they want. NOBODY wants Ed and Ed leading the country. Its a guaranteed, take it to the bank, put the mortgage on it job. Everything else is pretty much secondary to that. Even a recovering economy. CMDs biggest threat was Eck and not delivering the Union, that was avoided and neatly slipped a noose round Labours neck with out positioning them on constitutional matters as well.
If he loses MPs to UKIP then come any govt bargaining time they will always side with forming a Tory lead govt, they sure as hell won't go with a Labour one.
And you keep ignoring the effect of UKIP on the labour vote...they are going to hurt labour badly.
The UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it. The UK electorate isn't any never has been as stupid as the politically minded like to think because by and large they get exactly the govt they want. Moreover they get the leader they want. NOBODY wants Ed and Ed leading the country. Its a guaranteed, take it to the bank, put the mortgage on it job. Everything else is pretty much secondary to that. Even a recovering economy. CMDs biggest threat was Eck and not delivering the Union, that was avoided and neatly slipped a noose round Labours neck with out positioning them on constitutional matters as well.
If he loses MPs to UKIP then come any govt bargaining time they will always side with forming a Tory lead govt, they sure as hell won't go with a Labour one.
And you keep ignoring the effect of UKIP on the labour vote...they are going to hurt labour badly.
DJRC said:
The Tory core vote is holding up well and providing CMD can maintain a centrist line
davepoth said:
It's been more than 30 years since a really left wing Labour party has been in power, and frankly I don't think there's the stomach in the country for that sort of government any more.
The problem for the tories in the rise of the UKIP is that he will be forced to move to the right by his nutty extremists. Cameron is well to the right already and if he gives in to 1922 et al then I don't think the voters will follow. If he doesn't then the party will, as ever, beat itself up.If the right think that by losing the election they gain more influence then that is what they will try for. They've done it often enough in the past.
Labour are not standing on a socialist platform, not at the moment anyway. They have divested themselves of those whose performance has been highly criticised and now all they have to overcome is the lack of presence of Miliband and the offensive presence of Harman.
The UKIP is the catalyst in all of this.
Remember that the tories have not won a majority for quite some time. What is there to turn the population around?
The UKIP, or at least Farage, are promising all sorts of spend, spend, spend politics. The tories won't be able to match this - nor will the UKIP if they had to balance the books of course. We have the tories promising more of the same. No wonder the UKIP is getting votes.
A move to the right, which Cameron might well be forced into, will be a move too far.
This election is far from decided. What is worrying for the tories is that, with Miliband and Harman facing them, they still struggle for votes. There is little doubt that if Bair returned labour would also be returned.
Derek Smith said:
The problem for the tories in the rise of the UKIP is that he will be forced to move to the right by his nutty extremists. Cameron is well to the right already and if he gives in to 1922 et al then I don't think the voters will follow. If he doesn't then the party will, as ever, beat itself up.
If the right think that by losing the election they gain more influence then that is what they will try for. They've done it often enough in the past.
Labour are not standing on a socialist platform, not at the moment anyway. They have divested themselves of those whose performance has been highly criticised and now all they have to overcome is the lack of presence of Miliband and the offensive presence of Harman.
The UKIP is the catalyst in all of this.
Remember that the tories have not won a majority for quite some time. What is there to turn the population around?
The UKIP, or at least Farage, are promising all sorts of spend, spend, spend politics. The tories won't be able to match this - nor will the UKIP if they had to balance the books of course. We have the tories promising more of the same. No wonder the UKIP is getting votes.
A move to the right, which Cameron might well be forced into, will be a move too far.
This election is far from decided. What is worrying for the tories is that, with Miliband and Harman facing them, they still struggle for votes. There is little doubt that if Bair returned labour would also be returned.
Just a small note. Ukip are claiming their manifesto will be fully costed when released.If the right think that by losing the election they gain more influence then that is what they will try for. They've done it often enough in the past.
Labour are not standing on a socialist platform, not at the moment anyway. They have divested themselves of those whose performance has been highly criticised and now all they have to overcome is the lack of presence of Miliband and the offensive presence of Harman.
The UKIP is the catalyst in all of this.
Remember that the tories have not won a majority for quite some time. What is there to turn the population around?
The UKIP, or at least Farage, are promising all sorts of spend, spend, spend politics. The tories won't be able to match this - nor will the UKIP if they had to balance the books of course. We have the tories promising more of the same. No wonder the UKIP is getting votes.
A move to the right, which Cameron might well be forced into, will be a move too far.
This election is far from decided. What is worrying for the tories is that, with Miliband and Harman facing them, they still struggle for votes. There is little doubt that if Bair returned labour would also be returned.
Art0ir said:
Just a small note. Ukip are claiming their manifesto will be fully costed when released.
Yeah, right.Most commentators suggest that in leaving the EU the savings will be neutral. A few suggest there will be a saving of a maximum of 10%. Most commentators suggest that foreign aid gives a positive return: i.e. we get more back than we pay.
Even if these estimates are a bit out of true, the fact remains that there will be insufficient to pay for the extra prisons, the NHS refunding, the larger armed forces, the extra police officers and the rest.
It is fantasy politics.
It won't be costs and even a cursory reality check will show this.
Derek Smith said:
Yeah, right.
Most commentators suggest that in leaving the EU the savings will be neutral. A few suggest there will be a saving of a maximum of 10%. Most commentators suggest that foreign aid gives a positive return: i.e. we get more back than we pay.
Even if these estimates are a bit out of true, the fact remains that there will be insufficient to pay for the extra prisons, the NHS refunding, the larger armed forces, the extra police officers and the rest.
It is fantasy politics.
It won't be costs and even a cursory reality check will show this.
Maybe, but it depends on the timescales and what else UKIP can get through. Just scrapping the climate change act saves fortunes over the course of even one parliament let alone the next decade or two. If UKIP ram through a huge deregulation bill in tandem with Brexit again there will be fortunes saved for British industry. I think the Taxpayers alliance estimate that the cost of all the EU regulation has added perhaps 100 billion of costs to business. Not anything like that will be saved as a lot of the regulation we would keep, but a couple of 10s of billions per year would go some way to paying for extra stuff elsewhere.Most commentators suggest that in leaving the EU the savings will be neutral. A few suggest there will be a saving of a maximum of 10%. Most commentators suggest that foreign aid gives a positive return: i.e. we get more back than we pay.
Even if these estimates are a bit out of true, the fact remains that there will be insufficient to pay for the extra prisons, the NHS refunding, the larger armed forces, the extra police officers and the rest.
It is fantasy politics.
It won't be costs and even a cursory reality check will show this.
DJRC said:
Oa the Tories aren't going to lose the next election. The worst will be a Tory/ukip coalition.
The UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it.
seriously????? the 2 Eds show will get voted in unless something changes because they operate on the politics of envyThe UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it.
Einion Yrth said:
Derek Smith said:
Cameron is well to the right already
You are delusional.Well to the right of what exactly?
Cameron is representative of the old fashioned paternalistic Conservative which was challenged by Thatcherism but seems to have reasserted itself. Apart from the fact he is against further EU integration (and why is that a right or left wing position?) he is indistinguishable from his forbearers.
The BBC like to pretend the Conservatives are becoming ever more right wing and use any statement of standard Conservative values to illustrate this. But the Tories seem to have been "moving to the right" for the last two decades to end up to the left of where they were in the late 80s.
irocfan said:
DJRC said:
Oa the Tories aren't going to lose the next election. The worst will be a Tory/ukip coalition.
The UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it.
seriously????? the 2 Eds show will get voted in unless something changes because they operate on the politics of envyThe UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it.
steveT350C said:
BlackLabel said:
David Davis on the Sunday Politics today made some interesting points. He said that a quarter of the 2010 Tory voters have left them and 3/4 of that group are now with UKIP. He said that many within his party are simply banking on voters 'sobering up' and switching from UKIP to Tory as the polls near. He also said that they could cope with UKIP moving on from the 3% they polled in 2010 to 5% but anything more and it's a massive headache.
It's not much of a strategy is it.
"Sobering up"?It's not much of a strategy is it.
No chance!
DJRC said:
irocfan said:
DJRC said:
Oa the Tories aren't going to lose the next election. The worst will be a Tory/ukip coalition.
The UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it.
seriously????? the 2 Eds show will get voted in unless something changes because they operate on the politics of envyThe UK electorate is NOT voting into head office Ed and Ed. They aren't, simple as that and policies have nothing to do with it.
JagLover said:
Apart from the fact he is against further EU integration (and why is that a right or left wing position?) he is indistinguishable from his forbearers.
He is not against further integration, he just makes out he is. Neither were his forebearers. That the Conservative party is and has ever been overall Eurosceptic is a triumph of spin over substance. The last truly vocal Tory Eurosceptic surely was Enoch. Mrs T was pro eu for most of her time, and when she was no longer she was removed. Mr Major... ERM, Maastricht...Esseesse said:
He is not against further integration, he just makes out he is. Neither were his forebearers. That the Conservative party is and has ever been overall Eurosceptic is a triumph of spin over substance. The last truly vocal Tory Eurosceptic surely was Enoch. Mrs T was pro eu for most of her time, and when she was no longer she was removed. Mr Major... ERM, Maastricht...
it never fails to amaze me how many people cannot seem to recognise this.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff