Tory MP defection.

[TKF]

Fed up with the establishment. Joins career politician.

[BlackLabel]

The latest from Paddy Power.

[Jasandjules]

Well if he is ensuring a by-election he appears to have the courage of his convictions and would appear to actually believe in the democratic process. For that reason alone I hope he is successful.

[0a]

This of course also means wall to wall coverage for UKIP

[Puggit]

If he hadn't called a by-election UKIP would have their first MP

[avinalarf]

Assuming he wins this will give a huge boost to UKIP and if Farage wins then they are on a roll.
More Tory and I think Labour voters that were doubtful on voting UKIP will be encouraged to do so.
This puts Cameron in a difficult position.
To have any chance of winning a majority next election he will need to move more to the right,more populist.
What with concern over uncontrolled immigration and Europe I can't see it any other way.

[wc98]

Jasandjules said:

Well if he is ensuring a by-election he appears to have the courage of his convictions and would appear to actually believe in the democratic process. For that reason alone I hope he is successful.

this ,never thought i would see the day in modern politics a politician would actually risk any loss on point of principle.

[z4RRSchris99]

Puggit said:

If he hadn't called a by-election UKIP would have their first MP

they had one for a bit when whats his face defected, but he was put down as an indipendant as ukip didnt have a whip

[anonymous-user]

Never heard of him , attention seeking?

[unrepentant]

Jimboka said:

Never heard of him , attention seeking?

He's a weirdo who has never fitted in with the Tories. In parliament 9 years and never offered a job, tells you a lot.

He'll probably win the by-election on a protest vote (unless the Tories persuade Johnson to run) then get booted out at the general.

[hidetheelephants]

unrepentant said:

Jimboka said:

Never heard of him , attention seeking?

He's a weirdo who has never fitted in with the Tories. In parliament 9 years and never offered a job, tells you a lot.

He'll probably win the by-election on a protest vote (unless the Tories persuade Johnson to run) then get booted out at the general.

It's this kind of thinking that will lose CMD the next election and leave us with friend Gump in charge of the till; please ask him to up his game, as it appears you're on his management team.

[unrepentant]

hidetheelephants said:

It's this kind of thinking that will lose CMD the next election and leave us with friend Gump in charge of the till; please ask him to up his game, as it appears you're on his management team.

You're going to have a Lib Lab coalition after the next election, everyone knows that.

[anonymous-user]

unrepentant said:

He's a weirdo who has never fitted in with the Tories. In parliament 9 years and never offered a job, tells you a lot.

He'll probably win the by-election on a protest vote (unless the Tories persuade Johnson to run) then get booted out at the general.

Don't bank on it, he'll be dragging down the unemployment stats soon !

[Fittster]

unrepentant said:

Jimboka said:

Never heard of him , attention seeking?

He's a weirdo who has never fitted in with the Tories. In parliament 9 years and never offered a job, tells you a lot.

That hardly makes him unusual. My weirdo: Julian Brazier MP.

[Esseesse]

unrepentant said:

hidetheelephants said:

It's this kind of thinking that will lose CMD the next election and leave us with friend Gump in charge of the till; please ask him to up his game, as it appears you're on his management team.

You're going to have a Lib Lab coalition after the next election, everyone knows that.

You're assuming that historic Conservative voters care. Many conservative voters would rather the non conservative Conservatives continually lost until they change. We'll never see a conservative government while this lot are squatting on the name.

[wolves_wanderer]

unrepentant said:

He's a weirdo who has never fitted in with the Tories. In parliament 9 years and never offered a job, tells you a lot.

He'll probably win the by-election on a protest vote (unless the Tories persuade Johnson to run) then get booted out at the general.

Johnson wont run because he isn't guaranteed a win.

Carswell is the sort we need more of in parliament, pity he will be a kipper.

[rs1952]

Esseesse said:

unrepentant said:

hidetheelephants said:

It's this kind of thinking that will lose CMD the next election and leave us with friend Gump in charge of the till; please ask him to up his game, as it appears you're on his management team.

You're going to have a Lib Lab coalition after the next election, everyone knows that.

You're assuming that historic Conservative voters care. Many conservative voters would rather the non conservative Conservatives continually lost until they change. We'll never see a conservative government while this lot are squatting on the name.

What's a "historic conservative?"

A Winston Churchill?
A Harold MacMillan?
A Ted Heath?

All of whom, incidentally, wanted the UK to play a bigger role in Europe

Or do you mean a Margaret Thatcher sort of conservative, which isn't actually all that "historic"?

Any way - forget me trying to second guess what you're on about - what's a "historic conservative" in your view?

[Esseesse]

rs1952 said:

Esseesse said:

unrepentant said:

hidetheelephants said:

It's this kind of thinking that will lose CMD the next election and leave us with friend Gump in charge of the till; please ask him to up his game, as it appears you're on his management team.

You're going to have a Lib Lab coalition after the next election, everyone knows that.

You're assuming that historic Conservative voters care. Many conservative voters would rather the non conservative Conservatives continually lost until they change. We'll never see a conservative government while this lot are squatting on the name.

What's a "historic conservative?"

A Winston Churchill?
A Harold MacMillan?
A Ted Heath?

All of whom, incidentally, wanted the UK to play a bigger role in Europe

Or do you mean a Margaret Thatcher sort of conservative, which isn't actually all that "historic"?

Any way - forget me trying to second guess what you're on about - what's a "historic conservative" in your view?

Deliberately obtuse? If you read what I wrote it's quite clear I'm referring to conservative voters (the clue is the use of the word voters). I.e. People who have voted for the Conservative party historically.

[BlackLabel]

I hear this more and more now. Many conservatives view Cameron's Tories as Labour-lite and are willing to sacrifice the 2015 election in the hope that a 'proper' conservative takes charge and leads the party to a win 5 years later. I can understand this to a certain extent however PM Miliband and Chancellor Balls is quite a scary proposition.

Esseesse said:

You're assuming that historic Conservative voters care. Many conservative voters would rather the non conservative Conservatives continually lost until they change. We'll never see a conservative government while this lot are squatting on the name.

[eharding]

BlackLabel said:

I hear this more and more now. Many conservatives view Cameron's Tories as Labour-lite and are willing to sacrifice the 2015 election in the hope that a 'proper' conservative takes charge and leads the party to a win 5 years later. I can understand this to a certain extent however PM Miliband and Chancellor Balls is quite a scary proposition.

...and therein lies the rub. John Major wasn't right-wing-euro-phobic enough for a small head-banging portion of the Conservative Party in the run-up to the 1997 election. Combined with a small portion of the Conservative Parliamentary Party - Neil Hamilton, I'm thinking of you - who seemed hell-bent on smothering themselves in as much sleeze as their wives' tongues could handle - the Conservatives were ejected from power. In national financial probity terms, it was akin to being thrown out of the Garden of Eden.

For 13 years.

We tried, repeatedly and dismally, lurching to the right, and as a result we lost, repeatedly and dismally, 2 general elections.

By and large, the head-bangers and sleaze-merchants who cost us the 1997 election have migrated to UKIP.

Carswell isn't part of that dismal tribe, however - I suspect the 'kipper Old Guard don't really know what to make of him - despite his noisy anti-EU rhetoric, his stance on a number of issues dear to the Bloom-henden wing of UKIP would have him bundled up in a corner at the UKIP conference, petrol-filled tyre round his neck with Godfrey B. and any number of his pals ready with a Zippo.

Carswell is full-on awkward squad, never a Tory team-player, but he isn't 'kipper heartland either.

Which is why I don't think Nigel understands quite what he's tried to swallow with the Carswell defection.

Edited by eharding on Friday 29th August 00:42