Tory MP defection.
Discussion
rs1952 said:
After losing the 1979 GE the labour party lurched to the right. They stayed out of power for 18 years
You must have them rolling in the aisles with gems like this; do you have any more? Michael Foot, 'the longest suicide note in history', unilateral disarmament, militant tendency, the GLC, etc, a lurch to the right?unrepentant said:
dandarez said:
TKF said:
league67 said:
Nottingham University's Matthew Goodwin said:
So I do not think he will struggle at all to win the election under the UKIP banner - [partly] because of the demographics in Clacton, which are ideal for UKIP - this is a struggling, coastal seat, lots of older, white voters, few minority voters, it's classic left-behind territory - voters who feel they are not getting a say in Westminster, who feel they are getting left behind economically.
Quelle surprise.Wonder how many they picked up in 'your area'? care to tell us?
Especially as the BNP picked up that sort of percentage in many 'sort of areas' in 2010.
4.6% clearly shows one thing, not that it is that 'sort of area' but that it is a minority vote (note it wasn't even 5%, but nothing like distortion eh?).
But you seem to think it something else.
The population is mainly white and ageing with a very small ethnic mix. Prime real estate for the xenophobic right wing parties like UKIP and the BNP.
IIRC it was considered the most likely constituency to elect a UKIP MP.
unrepentant said:
dandarez said:
Answer the question. Don't be like a politician.
WHERE is your area?
If you're addressing me I don't have an area in that context. I do know the area in question though, my aunt lives in Frinton.WHERE is your area?
'Real estate'.
Oh and to add, 'aging and white' describes most of the UK, not just Clacton and Frinton.
Jeez!
dandarez said:
Oh christ, don't bother, the penny's dropped.
'Real estate'.
Oh and to add, 'aging and white' describes most of the UK, not just Clacton and Frinton.
Jeez!
If Unrepentant won't bite, I will. 'My area' is staunch Conservative (although I am not) but the BNP only registered 1% in the 2010 General Election. It is not 'that sort of area'.'Real estate'.
Oh and to add, 'aging and white' describes most of the UK, not just Clacton and Frinton.
Jeez!
For reference, the national average was 1.9%.
At nigh-on 5%, Clacton is 'that sort of area'.
hidetheelephants said:
rs1952 said:
After losing the 1979 GE the labour party lurched to the right. They stayed out of power for 18 years
You must have them rolling in the aisles with gems like this; do you have any more? Michael Foot, 'the longest suicide note in history', unilateral disarmament, militant tendency, the GLC, etc, a lurch to the right?It's often best to check that what you're quoting is still what's there to quote
unrepentant said:
dandarez said:
TKF said:
league67 said:
Nottingham University's Matthew Goodwin said:
So I do not think he will struggle at all to win the election under the UKIP banner - [partly] because of the demographics in Clacton, which are ideal for UKIP - this is a struggling, coastal seat, lots of older, white voters, few minority voters, it's classic left-behind territory - voters who feel they are not getting a say in Westminster, who feel they are getting left behind economically.
Quelle surprise.Wonder how many they picked up in 'your area'? care to tell us?
Especially as the BNP picked up that sort of percentage in many 'sort of areas' in 2010.
4.6% clearly shows one thing, not that it is that 'sort of area' but that it is a minority vote (note it wasn't even 5%, but nothing like distortion eh?).
But you seem to think it something else.
The population is mainly white and ageing with a very small ethnic mix. Prime real estate for the xenophobic right wing parties like UKIP and the BNP.
IIRC it was considered the most likely constituency to elect a UKIP MP.
so that will be the majority of the UK electorate then?
steveT350C said:
unrepentant said:
dandarez said:
TKF said:
league67 said:
Nottingham University's Matthew Goodwin said:
So I do not think he will struggle at all to win the election under the UKIP banner - [partly] because of the demographics in Clacton, which are ideal for UKIP - this is a struggling, coastal seat, lots of older, white voters, few minority voters, it's classic left-behind territory - voters who feel they are not getting a say in Westminster, who feel they are getting left behind economically.
Quelle surprise.Wonder how many they picked up in 'your area'? care to tell us?
Especially as the BNP picked up that sort of percentage in many 'sort of areas' in 2010.
4.6% clearly shows one thing, not that it is that 'sort of area' but that it is a minority vote (note it wasn't even 5%, but nothing like distortion eh?).
But you seem to think it something else.
The population is mainly white and ageing with a very small ethnic mix. Prime real estate for the xenophobic right wing parties like UKIP and the BNP.
IIRC it was considered the most likely constituency to elect a UKIP MP.
so that will be the majority of the UK electorate then?
Guam said:
unrepentant said:
I'd say it excludes all big cities and many smaller ones. Maybe I should have said aged rather than ageing. The area around Clacton is unusually full of old white people who tend to be of the little Englander persuation and therefore susceptible to the more extreme parties.
How long is it since you emigrated to the US, just remind us would you?Things have been changing pretty fast demographically speaking in many areas of the UK of late so I wonder how "current" you really are?
Guam said:
unrepentant said:
I'd say it excludes all big cities and many smaller ones. Maybe I should have said aged rather than ageing. The area around Clacton is unusually full of old white people who tend to be of the little Englander persuation and therefore susceptible to the more extreme parties.
How long is it since you emigrated to the US, just remind us would you?Things have been changing pretty fast demographically speaking in many areas of the UK of late so I wonder how "current" you really are?
) and I also get around the country a fair bit.It is true that the population is ageing; it is also true that, for want of a better word, the ethnic mix is also changing. In my neck of the woods, hearing people speaking Polish or Russian in the street is quite commonplace, and that would simply not have been heard 20 years ago (around here there were always a lot of Poles who ended up here after WW2, but they all tended to speak English in public). We also have a family of Asians in the street, another thing you wouldn't have seen 20 years ago.
These people do not generally hold the sort of views that make UKIP appeal to them. They are unlikely to be heard banging on about Europe, having far more important and interesting ways to spend their lives, and their views on immigration are also unlikely to fit in too well with those of UKIP.
Clacton, on the other hand, is not representative of the changes that have taken place in the UK over the last 20 years, and has a much higher proportion of white retired people in it. Judging by the people I've seen being interviewed on TV from Clacton in the last 24 hours, they have more than their fair share of Alf Garnett clones.
All this being the case, I wouldn't like to put money on who will win the by-election when it comes but, if Carswell does win, I'll hazard a guess he'll have a much smaller majority than he did in 2010. And if he did win, whether he'd keep the seat come next year's GE would also be open to question.
Mind you, I do see one positive aspect of all this - David Cameron has one less loon on his back benches
rs1952 said:
It also never ceases to amaze me that some people believe it. Here's a bit more history:
After losing the 1979 GE the labour party lurched to the left. They stayed out of power for 18 years
After losing the 1997 GE the conservative party lurched to the right. They haven't won an election outright since then, and would not have had a majority government for 18 years.
Those who preach that the conservative party should move further to the right to get their "true" supporters back are essentially the mirror image of Arthur Scargill and the loony left back in the 80s who thought that all that was needed was a further move to the left, and they would then romp back to power.
The UK population like, and vote for, centrist governments. The only exception to that rule since the introduction of universal suffrage was the 1979 conservative victory, and that had more to do with excessive power being wielded by the trades unions than a desire within the population for a right wing government.
There comes a time, when it is clear the medicine isn't working, to stop increasing the dose. The right of the political spectrum in the UK may not have realised it yet.
Edited because I apparently don't know me left from me right
Edited by rs1952 on Friday 29th August 17:50
Like most mantras the idea that the middle ground always wins is false even if it might appear reliable over a shorter time frame.
The Conservatives, like any party, will win elections by answering the concerns of the electorate and at least in Clacton I suspect Douglas Carswell answers them better under a UKIP banner.
So we think he is a man of principle because he has resigned and caused a by-election. However bearing in mind conservative policy hasn't changed recently, why has he gone now? Equally why should we have to pay for a by-election a mere 8 months or so before a general election?
The reality is that he is just seek publicity or himself and therefore a standard politician.
The reality is that he is just seek publicity or himself and therefore a standard politician.
dandarez said:
TKF said:
league67 said:
Nottingham University's Matthew Goodwin said:
So I do not think he will struggle at all to win the election under the UKIP banner - [partly] because of the demographics in Clacton, which are ideal for UKIP - this is a struggling, coastal seat, lots of older, white voters, few minority voters, it's classic left-behind territory - voters who feel they are not getting a say in Westminster, who feel they are getting left behind economically.
Quelle surprise.Wonder how many they picked up in 'your area'? care to tell us?
Especially as the BNP picked up that sort of percentage in many 'sort of areas' in 2010.
4.6% clearly shows one thing, not that it is that 'sort of area' but that it is a minority vote (note it wasn't even 5%, but nothing like distortion eh?).
But you seem to think it something else.
Clacton is exactly "that sort of area" where fear politics thrives. Massive % of white old people who whine about immigrants (despite not having any in their actual area) coming over to take their jobs (despite being retired/near retired). Small minded Alf Garnett redtop readers. BNP did well and I expect UKIP to do well too.
rs1952 said:
oyster said:
BlackLabel said:
I hear this more and more now. Many conservatives view Cameron's Tories as Labour-lite and are willing to sacrifice the 2015 election in the hope that a 'proper' conservative takes charge and leads the party to a win 5 years later. I can understand this to a certain extent however PM Miliband and Chancellor Balls is quite a scary proposition.
Cameron's Tories are a lot more right wing than almost all other previous Tory governments. Esseesse said:
You're assuming that historic Conservative voters care. Many conservative voters would rather the non conservative Conservatives continually lost until they change. We'll never see a conservative government while this lot are squatting on the name.
It's quite debilitating having debates with people who think the Thatcher years epitomised classic Conservatism. It's quite the opposite in fact.
Never ceases to amaze me how people try and offer an opinion based on history when they don't even research history.
It also never ceases to amaze me that some people believe it. Here's a bit more history:
After losing the 1979 GE the labour party lurched to the left. They stayed out of power for 18 years
After losing the 1997 GE the conservative party lurched to the right. They haven't won an election outright since then, and would not have had a majority government for 18 years.
Those who preach that the conservative party should move further to the right to get their "true" supporters back are essentially the mirror image of Arthur Scargill and the loony left back in the 80s who thought that all that was needed was a further move to the left, and they would then romp back to power.
The UK population like, and vote for, centrist governments. The only exception to that rule since the introduction of universal suffrage was the 1979 conservative victory, and that had more to do with excessive power being wielded by the trades unions than a desire within the population for a right wing government.
There comes a time, when it is clear the medicine isn't working, to stop increasing the dose. The right of the political spectrum in the UK may not have realised it yet.
I agree in the main with what RS says although I think that there were other reasons for the loss labour suffered and that of the tories that you quote. Labour were in disarray going into the election in 79 and the tories were in a much worse situation in 97. I voted for Blair in his first term and even knowing now what type of person he is, I would still do the same again as the tories were a shambles. They had a PM who, with support, most people could follow as he was intelligent, reasonable and right of the middle. Major was the best PM we could have had but the tory right destroyed the party.
History is in danger of repeating itself.
As the population gets older it gets more conservative and depending on savings to maintain a standard of living, many historic labour supporters might well be inclined to vote tory. But it is not enough I think.
Further, there will be a backlash if the Scots go and I think the incumbents will be blamed to an extent, at least if Milliband has any intelligence they will.
As with 97 the, right wing back benchers seem to think that sabotaging the party will give them some authority over it.
The current tory party is the most right wing party this country has had in my lifetime, and probably since the Normans. That's why most people are dissatisfied with it. They got in because of Brown. Had someone with a bit of sense been in charge then labour would have been returned.
God knows what will happen in the election but I've got no idea which way to vote. Not that it matters. My MP typifies everything that is wrong with the tory party and the seat's about as safe as you can get. He's a sexist oaf who does little for the locals. My only hope is that he'll defect to the UKIP and we might get someone who wants to work with his community.
Some hopes.
AJS- said:
Going for the middle ground never fails. Unless an "extreme" position is actually correct. Or at least, in the case of Clement Atlee, resonates with the public mood at the time. Atlee rejected a National coalition and stood on a radically left wing platform against no less an opponent than Winston Churchill straight after WW2 and won quite convincingly. This was because his emphasis on housing, employment, health and education answered the concerns of the electorate while Churchill's grandiose international plans and attempt to smear Labour didn't.
Interesting. You seem to be saying, and I agree with you (which itself is unusual ) that the average man in the street was more concerned about matters of immediate concern to his way of life (housing, employment, health and education ) whilst caring less about international plans. We know what UKIP stands for internationally, at least as far as Europe is concerned - what do they have to say to the ordinary bloke and blokess in the street about housing, employment, health and education? AJS- said:
Like most mantras the idea that the middle ground always wins is false even if it might appear reliable over a shorter time frame.
My starting point was from the Representation of the People Act 1928, which in essence introduced universal suffrage. Since that time, 86 years ago, there have been two cases of "extreme" governments being elected (I quoted one, you quoted the other). Attlee had a single term before the conservatives were returned to power, and the conservatives IMHO only survived beyond 1983 because the opposition had made itself unelectable. 86 years is not exactly a short time frame and two "extreme" governments got themselves elected. Even if you include the whole of the 11.5 years of the Thatcher government (you can't really include John Major's later administration), that gives you a little under 18 years of "extreme" governments out of the last 86, or just a fraction over 20%.The data seems to stack up to me
AJS- said:
The Conservatives, like any party, will win elections by answering the concerns of the electorate
Quite. Which then begs the question are they ready for a right wing government or will they go for a centrist one again, the same as they have for almost 80% of the time since universal suffrage?Guam said:
unrepentant said:
You're saying the country has become more white since I left?
Oddly enough if you want to put it in those terms, in many areas that is exactly what is happening, like I asked just how current are you really!I doubt whether where I last lived has got any whiter. I lived in rural North Yorkshire, the black community could be counted on 1 finger. His name was Terry, he lived 2 villages away and he was a terribly nice chap.
TKF said:
Windsor. Fewer than 1000 votes and 2% (1.9%, it's called "rounding", look it up)
Clacton is exactly "that sort of area" where fear politics thrives. Massive % of white old people who whine about immigrants (despite not having any in their actual area) coming over to take their jobs (despite being retired/near retired). Small minded Alf Garnett redtop readers. BNP did well and I expect UKIP to do well too.
I love the way you type here endlessly moaning about sweeping generalisations with, er.. sweeping generalisations.Clacton is exactly "that sort of area" where fear politics thrives. Massive % of white old people who whine about immigrants (despite not having any in their actual area) coming over to take their jobs (despite being retired/near retired). Small minded Alf Garnett redtop readers. BNP did well and I expect UKIP to do well too.
TKF said:
dandarez said:
TKF said:
league67 said:
Nottingham University's Matthew Goodwin said:
So I do not think he will struggle at all to win the election under the UKIP banner - [partly] because of the demographics in Clacton, which are ideal for UKIP - this is a struggling, coastal seat, lots of older, white voters, few minority voters, it's classic left-behind territory - voters who feel they are not getting a say in Westminster, who feel they are getting left behind economically.
Quelle surprise.Wonder how many they picked up in 'your area'? care to tell us?
Especially as the BNP picked up that sort of percentage in many 'sort of areas' in 2010.
4.6% clearly shows one thing, not that it is that 'sort of area' but that it is a minority vote (note it wasn't even 5%, but nothing like distortion eh?).
But you seem to think it something else.
Clacton is exactly "that sort of area" where fear politics thrives. Massive % of white old people who whine about immigrants (despite not having any in their actual area) coming over to take their jobs (despite being retired/near retired). Small minded Alf Garnett redtop readers. BNP did well and I expect UKIP to do well too.
I could go so much better than that, here in Mr Cameron's constituency - we might get Kippers standing, even at the last Gen Election a 'Wessex Regionalist' stood, and naturally, the Monster Raving Looney Party did too, but BNP?
NOT A BLOODY CHANCE!
You need to clean up your Windsor, it must be that 'sort of area'!
Edited by dandarez on Friday 29th August 21:12
dandarez said:
Royal Windsor... it had a BNP candidate standing!
I could go so much better than that, here in Mr Cameron's constituency - we might get Kippers standing, even at the last Gen Election a 'Wessex Regionalist' stood, and naturally, the Monster Raving Looney Party, did but BNP?
NOT A BLOODY CHANCE!
You need to clean up your Windsor, it must be that 'sort of area'!
Yup - all those bloody Germans up at the "big house"I could go so much better than that, here in Mr Cameron's constituency - we might get Kippers standing, even at the last Gen Election a 'Wessex Regionalist' stood, and naturally, the Monster Raving Looney Party, did but BNP?
NOT A BLOODY CHANCE!
You need to clean up your Windsor, it must be that 'sort of area'!
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