Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6

[ralphrj]

HarryW said:

Is the vote going to be easily identifiable by areas/regions?

Each of the local authorities will count the votes in their area and declare a result. The number of votes Yes or No will then be totalled across Scotland.

HarryW said:

If the Shetlands and Orkneys vote for No does that mean they can stay as part of the union and we get to keep the oil which must surely be 'theirs to gift' certainly they have a greater claim on it than say glasgow or Edinburgh........

No, the overall total will decide the fate of all of Scotland.

[Derek Smith]

I've just seen an interview with Redwood on Sky News. It would appear he is a firm supporter of separatism.

[Moonhawk]

HarryW said:

Is the vote going to be easily identifiable by areas/regions?

Yep - according to somebody earlier in the thread - each unitary authority will declare as soon as their result has been verified.

Will be interesting to see how it splits. I'm thinking the Borders and Highlands will be predominantly No. but there will be a a central belt running from Stranraer - through Glasgow, Dundee and up to Peterhead that will be predominantly Yes.

This pattern is pretty much how the 2010 general election split - with the former areas being either conservative or LD - whilst the latter tended to be Labour or SNP.

[Axionknight]

HarryW said:

If the Shetlands and Orkneys vote for No does that mean they can stay as part of the union and we get to keep the oil which must surely be 'theirs to gift' certainly they have a greater claim on it than say glasgow or Edinburgh........

Me and my girlfriend are voting no, in the event of a wider yes vote, can our house, garden and drive way remain part of the UK?

...

[MDMetal]

Statistics after will be interesting regardless of the outcome especially if it's clear that the 16 year olds contributed a big sway one way or another.

[HarryW]

ralphrj said:

HarryW said:

Is the vote going to be easily identifiable by areas/regions?

Each of the local authorities will count the votes in their area and declare a result. The number of votes Yes or No will then be totalled across Scotland.

HarryW said:

If the Shetlands and Orkneys vote for No does that mean they can stay as part of the union and we get to keep the oil which must surely be 'theirs to gift' certainly they have a greater claim on it than say glasgow or Edinburgh........

No, the overall total will decide the fate of all of Scotland.

OK, thats the game today.........so in five years time when the islands apply for independance from the main land............. I can but assume that SNP will apply the same fair play rules afforded to them this time around.........

[Moonhawk]

MDMetal said:

Statistics after will be interesting regardless of the outcome especially if it's clear that the 16 year olds contributed a big sway one way or another.

That particular fact will be very interesting. The cynic in me thinks that Salmond insisted they had the vote because he thought the rebellious, idealistic nature of teenagers would work in his favour.

If this was his aim - it would be ironic if it was they who in fact swung the vote to No.

As pointed out - many of the chips that nats seem to harbour about Thatcher/'The Tories' etc will be alien to youngsters who were still in nappies when she left power.

[HarryW]

Axionknight said:

HarryW said:

If the Shetlands and Orkneys vote for No does that mean they can stay as part of the union and we get to keep the oil which must surely be 'theirs to gift' certainly they have a greater claim on it than say glasgow or Edinburgh........

Me and my girlfriend are voting no, in the event of a wider yes vote, can our house, garden and drive way remain part of the UK?

...

Certainly you can declare it a Salmond free area, I would and possitively encourange it... if that fails then picking it up and carrying it is an option. If its too heavy then just sell up and move south, I'm sure you won't be alone....

[grand cherokee]

have a look at the comments pages on the web sites of 'Scottish' newspapers

real racist anti English comments which moderators seem to allow

the comments are nothing to do with economics etc - just about history (frequently wrong)and the belief that Wee Eck is right and all the English are evil

[ralphrj]

Moonhawk said:

As pointed out - many of the chips that nats seem to harbour about Thatcher/'The Tories' etc will be alien to youngsters who were still in nappies when she left power.

There are people voting in this election who have never lived under a conservative majority government let alone when Thatcher was in power.

[Moonhawk]

HarryW said:

OK, thats the game today.........so in five years time when the islands apply for independance from the main land............. I can but assume that SNP will apply the same fair play rules afforded to them this time around.........

They may well do that if Salmond tried to run roughshod over them:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/97...

Ironically - the nationalist stance over how oil is split seems to change depending on who the conversation is with:

"But Stewart Stevenson, a former minister, told MSPs on Wednesday that Shetland had too few residents to lay claim to any North Sea oil revenues, around a quarter of which derive from fields around the islands."

...but I thought the nat stance was about 'geographic share' - rather than 'population share'.

[Moonhawk]

ralphrj said:

There are people voting in this election who have never lived under a conservative majority government let alone when Thatcher was in power.

Sorry you are right - I dropped a decade

It's been 24 years since Thatcher left power and 17 since the last conservative government. A 16-17 year old in Scotland has only ever lived under a Labour or Coalition government.

[worsy]

Moonhawk said:

MDMetal said:

Statistics after will be interesting regardless of the outcome especially if it's clear that the 16 year olds contributed a big sway one way or another.

That particular fact will be very interesting. The cynic in me thinks that Salmond insisted they had the vote because he thought the rebellious, idealistic nature of teenagers would work in his favour.

If this was his aim - it would be ironic if it was they who in fact swung the vote to No.

As pointed out - many of the chips that nats seem to harbour about Thatcher/'The Tories' etc will be alien to youngsters who were still in nappies when she left power.

You'd need to be 17 to have lived under a Tory government let alone Thatcher.

[Moonhawk]

worsy said:

You'd need to be 17 to have lived under a Tory government let alone Thatcher.

Yep - I had a brain fart moment - see above.

[MDMetal]

Moonhawk said:

MDMetal said:

Statistics after will be interesting regardless of the outcome especially if it's clear that the 16 year olds contributed a big sway one way or another.

That particular fact will be very interesting. The cynic in me thinks that Salmond insisted they had the vote because he thought the rebellious, idealistic nature of teenagers would work in his favour.

If this was his aim - it would be ironic if it was they who in fact swung the vote to No.

As pointed out - many of the chips that nats seem to harbour about Thatcher/'The Tories' etc will be alien to youngsters who were still in nappies when she left power.

Break downs between homeowners/renters as well as regional differences/pay levels will also highlight if there's specific issues or a general evenly spread feeling.

[ralphrj]

Posted before but this shows the expected declaration times, the share of the electorate in that area and also a guesstimate on how likely that area is to vote 'Yes'.



It isn't very clear in the picture but I think that they have highlighted the key areas as:

North Lanarkshire
South Lanarkshire
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Highland
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Aberdeen

Note that these areas are not constituencies like in parliamentary elections. If 250,001 Glaswegians vote 'Yes' and 249,999 vote 'No' then all of those votes will be added to the cumulative totals rather than a single "Glasgow votes Yes".


Edit: Just to add, if you assume an area with odds of voting 'Yes' of 8 translates to 80% of the vote and apply that rational to all the other areas then 'Yes' will win 50.5% vs 49.5%. If anyone fancies staying up all night for the results then you could update this with the actual vote split as it comes in which will give you an ever increasingly accurate forecast of the final result.

Edited by ralphrj on Tuesday 16th September 13:10

[lamboman100]

Alan Greenspan, ex-head of US Fed, today saying Salmond's economic figures are nonsense.

He joins Obama a few days ago saying everyone should vote "No".

Outside Salmond and the Scottish working classes and North Korea, almost everyone worldwide is urging Scotland to vote "No".

One pollster this morning on the radio even suggested scared and intimidated Scots are saying "Yes" to pollsters in public, but they will really vote "No" in the private polling-booth on Thursday. Say one thing, do another.

[Mattygooner]

What happens post Yes vote when the Ruskies send over a Bear to probe the airspace, I seem to recall that they usually appear nearer Scottish airspace. do we send up jets to intercept or just let IScotland deal with them?

I don't think Russia would invade the non EU member IScotland but what I am trying to ask is if we would provide defensive support In the event of those pesky Russkies having a pop.

Also, as horrific as the recent events involving the currently British hostage executed by ISIS are, I believe he was Scottish, would it fall upon them to have negotiated with those vile gits and what kind of international recognition would they have with the heads of other countries.

What about the British regiments stationed in Scotland, the existing Scottish soldiers fighting for the UK at home and abroad, are they recalled and redistributed or do they have a choice?

[worsy]

Moonhawk said:

worsy said:

You'd need to be 17 to have lived under a Tory government let alone Thatcher.

Yep - I had a brain fart moment - see above.

It is ingrained though. I suspect the majority of people hold the same views as their parents did as there is a huge environmental factor.

[Risky Shift]

Moonhawk said:

As pointed out - many of the chips that nats seem to harbour about Thatcher/'The Tories' etc will be alien to youngsters who were still in nappies when she left power.

Sadly not as alien as you might think as the parents of a fair number of those youngsters will have been indoctrinated by their parents to believe all the negative tripe.