Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6

[Janluke]

E24man said:

A genuine question for any Scottish residents and voters.

Regardless of whether the decision on Friday morning is Yes or No, how much damage do you think has been caused to Scotland's reputation, brands, products, tourism and industry by the conduct of the Yes campaign and in particular the very obvious anti-English sentiments that however commonplace or rare quite naturally have received a lot of press within your largest neighbour and trading partner?

I've been here(South Lanarkshire) for over 12 years and apart from one incident in Skye many years ago have never had any anti English comments directed towards me. However over the last two weeks several random strangers have passed comments once hearing my accent. While not exactly abuse its usually along the lines of assuming I'm a No voter(correct) and suggesting its a disgrace I have the vote, if I want to stay after the vote I need to be onside etc etc. Last Weds I had just finished coaching a swim session when one of the parents said "don't the club have any Scottish Coaches" Seriously I give up my free time to coach you child and you hit me with that.

Don't get me wrong I am good friend with several yes voters, we have reasonable sensible discussions about the whole thing and agree to disagree. But there is a wave of anti Englishness crossing the nation that appears to be growing. Whichever way it goes I can't see that changing

[Tony427]

It must be so comforting for the Scots to know that if they get a yes vote Salmond will be basing all his defence decisions on the opinions of a 91 year old desert rat whose advise he rates more highly than a host of past generals, admirals and air chief marshalls.

Cheers,

Tony

[Borghetto]

Phugoid said:

Hilarious post, thanks.

You realise Campbell soups are American, right?

Late night misprint on my part - meant to say Baxter's.

[Don1]

Moonhawk said:

OpulentBob said:

This is causing massive divisions in families. Radio 4 (or maybe 5) yesterday afternoon had a discussion between a grandfather and grand daughter, he voted no and she yes. It was really sad hearing the distance between them. I felt really sorry for the old boy, if Yes get their way then the futures of millions of Scots will be changed against their will, causing ructions and having an impact, well, forever.

Yep - a while back I questioned whether this referendum could have a similar impact on families and communities in Scotland as the miners strike in the 80s did in England/Wales.

There are families and communities in many coal mining areas that still feel the effects of that to this day - due to different people taking different sides of the argument.

I heard this one as well - the old boy was spot on when he said she was voting Yes because of her heart.... But worded it incorrectly. Her arguments were emotive ones, rather than his factual ones, but she couldn't see that. I turned it off in the end...

Which is exactly what has happened to my thinking over the last week. Right now I couldn't give a rats ass if they stay or go. Which is quite strange, as I'm half-scots, my family lived in Harwick and Jedbrugh for generations. It would be a sad time to see the union break, but the promises and the potential of a Yes means we are past the point of no return. Pull the sticking plaster off and be done with it.

[Wills2]

In the event of a Yes vote will the speculators in the market see it as an opportunity to make money and put intense pressure on the pound? What will we do in response? Another black Wednesday?

I know the situation is different, but where there is uncertainty it will be exploited.

[Dog Star]

confused_buyer said:

8:25am: Salmond says on Radio that it is Spain's position not to interfere.

8.28am: Rajoy stands up in Spanish parliament and says Scotland will have to apply as a new member.

Couldn't make it up.

He's very reminiscent of that Iraqi bloke, Comical Ali.

[Garvin]

Wills2 said:

In the event of a Yes vote will the speculators in the market see it as an opportunity to make money and put intense pressure on the pound? What will we do in response? Another black Wednesday?

I know the situation is different, but where there is uncertainty it will be exploited.

In the event of a yes vote I believe the UK goverment will have to make an immediate and unequivocal reiteration that there will be no currency union otherwise there could well be a problem for the pound

[chris watton]

Great blog in the DT:

"Pity England, pity Scotland: governed by fools and charlatans"

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/10028...

[catso]

Guam said:

(although they decribed her as HE which I am sure was merely a typo)

Mmmm...

[tomw2000]

OT: a much crueler person than I could probably start an attempt to get @NicolaSturgeon #legohair #lookslikejimmykrankie trending on twitter....

[benjj]

I'm revising my prediction to:

No - 100%
Yes - 0%

I base this on the fact that tonight the YES voters will almost certainly drink so much meths and Buckie that they'll not wake up until 10.01pm tomorrow night. tts.

[Zod]

fluffnik said:

Could be, but it is effectively optional.

Hungary is still using the Forint too...

Optional if the country has a currency. If not, then it's no entry, as was the case for Montenegro. So for Scotland, if it wants into the EU (once Spain and others allow it), it will have to introduce the Groat and build up massive foreign exchange reserves. If it doesn't and goes for the Montenegro/Panama solution, it will have to build up massive sterling reserves. Either way, that means massive cuts and severe recession.

That's what people like you are voting for. Have fun!

[ralphrj]

Wills2 said:

In the event of a Yes vote will the speculators in the market see it as an opportunity to make money and put intense pressure on the pound? What will we do in response? Another black Wednesday?

I know the situation is different, but where there is uncertainty it will be exploited.

In the event of a 'Yes' vote we may well see the Pound fall but the circumstances are not the same as on Black Wednesday.

At the time the Pound was in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) which meant that rather than the Pound floating freely against other currencies like the German Deutsche Mark it had an upper and lower limit. These limits obliged the Government to take action if the Pound fell below the lower limit. The currency trader George Soros exploited this by establishing a huge position on Sterling and then starting a massive sell off, forcing the price of Sterling down and the Bank of England to sell our foreign currency reserves.

Following Black Wednesday the Government withdrew from the ERM and the Pound returned to being freely floated as it still is today. Therefore the Government won't be forced to act the same way as they did on that day but may have to intervene if a fall in the Pound turns into a run. However, most analysts think that in the event of a 'Yes' vote (which now looks less likely) the Pound will fall by a maximum of 10%.

Although a disaster for the Government at the time it arguably turned out in our favour as the Pound was overvalued within the ERM and the devaluation triggered strong economic growth for the next 15 years.

[ralphrj]

Zod said:

it will have to introduce the Groat and build up massive foreign exchange reserves.

One thing an iScotland would have is the ability to build a currency reserve as oil is sold in US Dollars so there will be a regular inflow of foreign currency.

However, it won't be enough to make up for the complete and total clusterfk that the rest of their economic plans will lead to.

[GCH]

Amanpour (CNN) getting John Majors thoughts on this:
http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/09/16/scottish-...

[Twilkes]

ralphrj said:

... in the event of a 'Yes' vote (which now looks less likely)

What are you basing that view on? Are the Yes folk just a very vocal large minority? There are a lot of them, and they have been very persuasive - still lots of videos and posts on social media promoting oil reserves and save the NHS and 'get the government you vote for'.... I'm nervous.

[Wombat3]

ralphrj said:

Zod said:

it will have to introduce the Groat and build up massive foreign exchange reserves.

One thing an iScotland would have is the ability to build a currency reserve as oil is sold in US Dollars so there will be a regular inflow of foreign currency.

However, it won't be enough to make up for the complete and total clusterfk that the rest of their economic plans will lead to.

er, not unless the oil companies are state owned and they are actually selling the oil!

The government revenue from oil is via taxation - currently paid in Sterling I would think.

[General Price]

Salmond said:

Team Scotland

[Einion Yrth]

Wombat3 said:

er, not unless the oil companies are state owned and hey are actually selling the oil!

The government revenue from oil is via taxation - currently paid in Sterling I would think.

Sillars did say he was going to nationalise BP.

[confused_buyer]

ralphrj said:

One thing an iScotland would have is the ability to build a currency reserve as oil is sold in US Dollars so there will be a regular inflow of foreign currency.

However, it won't be enough to make up for the complete and total clusterfk that the rest of their economic plans will lead to.

Although Oil provides export revenue and will help the balance of payments, Scotland themselves do not sell any oil. Oil companies sell the oil (usually in USD) and then pay tax on their profits and a tax for extracting it to the revenue currently in GBP.