Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6

[Rollin]

Strocky said:

Only in a UK GE (well not this one obviously)

In the Holyrood elections, the SNP & Labour absolutely smash the Tory representation (have less than 14% of the vote)
An absolute irrelevance of a party in Scotland

Votes % +/- Seats +/- Votes % +/- Seats +/- Total +/- %
SNP 902,915 45.39 +12.46 53 +32 876,421 44.04 +13.03 16 -9 69 +23 53.49
Labour 630,461 31.69 -0.45 15 -20 523,559 26.31 -2.85 22 +13 37 -7 28.68
Conservative 276,652 13.91 -2.69 3 -3 245,967 12.36 -1.55 12 -2 15 -5 11.63
Liberal Democrats 157,714 7.93 -8.25 2 -9 103,472 5.20 -6.10 3 -3 5 -12 3.88

How do the SNP do in Scotland's oil producing constituencies?

[Rollin]

Strocky said:

McWigglebum4th said:

And by the same measure you SNP st are completely irrelevant on the UK front


Do you not get it


You cannot demand an extra 180 billion a year spending in the UK with less then 5% of the votes

It's £140Bn wiggles, if I've told you a million times don't exaggerate

The Tory economic plan for the next 5 years was slammed by the IFS as the one with the biggest funding gap of all the parties and a Nobel winning economist has just torpedoed "austerity economics" as a flawed concept, looks like the SNP plan is the sensible course for a country coming out of recession, but if you'd rather let your hatred for the SNP cloud your judgement about the best economic plan for the country......

What did the IFS think of the SNP's white paper? Did they think that was sensible? Seems you let your hatred of the union cloud your judgement about the best economic plan for the country...

[davepoth]

Strocky said:

So let me get my head round this, your happy for the Westminster government to spend all the oil money and run a large defecit but not a Scottish Government doing the same?

So what should an iS they do with the oil money?

Yes. We went over this ad nauseam last year. UK spunking the oil money only makes up a few % of national income, it's an irrelevance if the income tax take is a bit higher than expected or the money turns up from elsewhere. Added to that the UK still has a reserve currency which gives it substantial leeway to run a deficit, which is how nobody tried to call in our loans even though we were deeper into the hole than Greece.

For an independent Scotland it's a huge proportion of national income and spunking that and then running a deficit will get you into a similar position to Greece very quickly. Being part of a large and economically powerful country does have some benefits, you know.

[simoid]

Strocky said:

simoid said:

UKIP man coming across well on BBC Scotland with Jackie Bird... IN MY PERSONAL OPINION.

I can see why he resonates with your good self

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/ukip-...

You're calling me a sectarian homophobe?

[nightcruiser]

jonny996 said:

Edinburger said:

Welshbeef said:

Anyone think that in Scotland we may see a repeat of the John Major silent victory style is all polls saying SNP going to destroy everyone but instead that doesn't materialise at all.

I think the Conservatives will do better than expected. Other parties' promises feel too similar and I think many people are tiring of the "anyone but the Tories" lines which we keep hearing.

Could be wrong but I think this will drive some people to vote Conservative.

Complete bks, I feel sorry for any tory supporter in Scotland. they have the choice of voting for what they believe in & risk getting the SNP forced on them OR tactilely voting Labour to keep the SNP out, at least with Labour they would still be in the UK.

This is exactly how I feel . The only way is to tactical vote all over Scotland for the most likely pro-union party to beat the SNP, regardless if you agree with that party or not.

I'll just leave this here... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB2lwWrdIRY

[Strocky]

Rollin said:

How do the SNP do in Scotland's oil producing constituencies?

Not badly enough to stop them having a majority in Holyrood

[Strocky]

simoid said:

Strocky said:

simoid said:

UKIP man coming across well on BBC Scotland with Jackie Bird... IN MY PERSONAL OPINION.

I can see why he resonates with your good self

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/ukip-...

You're calling me a sectarian homophobe?

Not at all, just a poor judge of character

[Strocky]

nightcruiser said:

jonny996 said:

Edinburger said:

Welshbeef said:

Anyone think that in Scotland we may see a repeat of the John Major silent victory style is all polls saying SNP going to destroy everyone but instead that doesn't materialise at all.

I think the Conservatives will do better than expected. Other parties' promises feel too similar and I think many people are tiring of the "anyone but the Tories" lines which we keep hearing.

Could be wrong but I think this will drive some people to vote Conservative.

Complete bks, I feel sorry for any tory supporter in Scotland. they have the choice of voting for what they believe in & risk getting the SNP forced on them OR tactilely voting Labour to keep the SNP out, at least with Labour they would still be in the UK.

This is exactly how I feel . The only way is to tactical vote all over Scotland for the most likely pro-union party to beat the SNP, regardless if you agree with that party or not.

I'll just leave this here... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB2lwWrdIRY

Might be no need for a 2nd referendum if Scotland returns 59 SNP MP's and the Tories still manage to do a deal to stay in power

[Welshbeef]

Strocky said:

Rollin said:

How do the SNP do in Scotland's oil producing constituencies?

Not badly enough to stop them having a majority in Holyrood

Out of interest what's the tipping point?

[Strocky]

Rollin said:

Strocky said:

McWigglebum4th said:

And by the same measure you SNP st are completely irrelevant on the UK front


Do you not get it


You cannot demand an extra 180 billion a year spending in the UK with less then 5% of the votes

It's £140Bn wiggles, if I've told you a million times don't exaggerate

The Tory economic plan for the next 5 years was slammed by the IFS as the one with the biggest funding gap of all the parties and a Nobel winning economist has just torpedoed "austerity economics" as a flawed concept, looks like the SNP plan is the sensible course for a country coming out of recession, but if you'd rather let your hatred for the SNP cloud your judgement about the best economic plan for the country......

What did the IFS think of the SNP's white paper? Did they think that was sensible? Seems you let your hatred of the union cloud your judgement about the best economic plan for the country...

Different vote, different plan, the referendums over why don't you let it go

[Strocky]

davepoth said:

Strocky said:

So let me get my head round this, your happy for the Westminster government to spend all the oil money and run a large defecit but not a Scottish Government doing the same?

So what should an iS they do with the oil money?

Yes. We went over this ad nauseam last year. UK spunking the oil money only makes up a few % of national income, it's an irrelevance if the income tax take is a bit higher than expected or the money turns up from elsewhere. Added to that the UK still has a reserve currency which gives it substantial leeway to run a deficit, which is how nobody tried to call in our loans even though we were deeper into the hole than Greece.

For an independent Scotland it's a huge proportion of national income and spunking that and then running a deficit will get you into a similar position to Greece very quickly. Being part of a large and economically powerful country does have some benefits, you know.

Define huge, in numbers please

[Strocky]

Welshbeef said:

Strocky said:

Rollin said:

How do the SNP do in Scotland's oil producing constituencies?

Not badly enough to stop them having a majority in Holyrood

Out of interest what's the tipping point?

65 seats out of 129 to get a majority

It uses both FPTP and the additional member system which allows 2nd choice candidates to be elected via a list selection

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Ed...

[davepoth]

Strocky said:

Define huge, in numbers please

819


If you squint a bit.


But I digress. If you take the 8.3% vs. 9.4% numbers and subtract the difference, roughly 13% of Scotland's economy would be oil revenue, based on last year's prices. That doesn't take into account the associated industries, so I would guess somewhere around 15%. It's about 1.2% for the UK as a whole. Oil has dropped by 50%; the UK could take that in its stride as it's only a 0.6% drop in revenue, but it would have left a 7.5% hole in a Scottish economy this year.

To put it another way, Scotland would be fked.

Edited by davepoth on Wednesday 29th April 22:38

[Rollin]

Strocky said:

Rollin said:

Strocky said:

McWigglebum4th said:

And by the same measure you SNP st are completely irrelevant on the UK front


Do you not get it


You cannot demand an extra 180 billion a year spending in the UK with less then 5% of the votes

It's £140Bn wiggles, if I've told you a million times don't exaggerate

The Tory economic plan for the next 5 years was slammed by the IFS as the one with the biggest funding gap of all the parties and a Nobel winning economist has just torpedoed "austerity economics" as a flawed concept, looks like the SNP plan is the sensible course for a country coming out of recession, but if you'd rather let your hatred for the SNP cloud your judgement about the best economic plan for the country......

What did the IFS think of the SNP's white paper? Did they think that was sensible? Seems you let your hatred of the union cloud your judgement about the best economic plan for the country...

Different vote, different plan, the referendums over why don't you let it go

You'll still vote for whatever st the SNP serve up. You did before.....and defended their plans.

[Mobile Chicane]

The SNP have been very clever. They know they're likely to have enormous influence in the almost inevitable event of a minority government/weak coalition.

Thereby giving them all the autonomy they ever wanted for Scotland, without the punitive costs of pursuing independence.

The Scots of course know this. Hence they'll be voting SNP in their droves.

[arp1]

Quite right! Let the games begin!

[Sway]

Strocky said:

Might be no need for a 2nd referendum if Scotland returns 59 SNP MP's and the Tories still manage to do a deal to stay in power

Why? Sturgeon has repeatedly told everyone that a vote for the SNP isn't a vote for independence...

Was that a lie? I think you'd have a bloodbath if she tried a UDI when a significant percentage of the SNP voters apparently do not support independence.

[speedy_thrills]

It seems likely to me they'll continue to broaden their political ambitions. Eventually (a decade or two perhaps) they may push for another referendum but I think they realise they have to build a lot more support next time.

In the meantime you get the SNP who'll leverage their position to get what they feel is the best deal for their constituents.

[Murph7355]

Sway said:

Why? Sturgeon has repeatedly told everyone that a vote for the SNP isn't a vote for independence...

Was that a lie? I think you'd have a bloodbath if she tried a UDI when a significant percentage of the SNP voters apparently do not support independence.

Read mobile chicane's post.

Worst possible outcome for the rest of the UK. It would have been significantly better all round if Salmond had won his referendum.

[andymadmak]

arp1 said:

Quite right! Let the games begin!

Games?

Hmm. OK, just so long as you don't start squawking when the other team (rUK) decides to play full out. Remember, you asked for it. 60 million people will not be blackmailed. Can you hear that sound? It's the sound of companies cancelling investment plans north of the border. It's the sound of skilled jobs steadily flowing south of the border. Kiss goodbye to those The 26 contracts.
Games? Games? Scotland is gonna inherit the whirl wind.