Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6

[Strocky]

davepoth said:

Strocky said:

Define huge, in numbers please

819


If you squint a bit.


But I digress. If you take the 8.3% vs. 9.4% numbers and subtract the difference, roughly 13% of Scotland's economy would be oil revenue, based on last year's prices. That doesn't take into account the associated industries, so I would guess somewhere around 15%. It's about 1.2% for the UK as a whole. Oil has dropped by 50%; the UK could take that in its stride as it's only a 0.6% drop in revenue, but it would have left a 7.5% hole in a Scottish economy this year.

To put it another way, Scotland would be fked.

Edited by davepoth on Wednesday 29th April 22:38

So the use of the word Huge & fked is hyperbole, glad we cleared that up

[Strocky]

simoid said:

Strocky said:

simoid said:

Strocky said:

simoid said:

UKIP man coming across well on BBC Scotland with Jackie Bird... IN MY PERSONAL OPINION.

I can see why he resonates with your good self

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/ukip-...

You're calling me a sectarian homophobe?

Not at all, just a poor judge of character

A) I didn't judge anyone's character, just their ability to interview.
B) I wasn't talking about the person in your article - UKIP's MEP was on Reporting Scotland.

So it was Cockburn that was being interviewed, a strange chap, gay but against gay marriage
I assume you didn't see Bernard Ponsonby interviewing him the other night then?

[Strocky]

Funk said:

So that's just completely nuked any business investment in Scotland for another 18 months at least.

Well done, Scotland. Well done.

Well, bar my business and that small concern BP drilling off Orkney on the Loyal Field

[Strocky]

simoid said:

Talk of nationalist and unionist parties worries me

Why you vote for a Unionist party?

[Strocky]

Greedydog said:

Garvin said:

Not really. It will be Scottish people voting the SNP into power so the original "well done, Scotland, well done" is quite correct.

No, it will be FPTP allowing a minority of Scottish people to vote the SNP into power. The SNP do not speak for all, or even a majority, of Scots.

Boo fking hoo, the conservatives and labour were more than happy with the FPTP system and actively championed it against the LD AV proposal, so they can dry their eyes that for once their cosy duopoly might be upset

Edited by Strocky on Friday 1st May 14:02

[davepoth]

Strocky said:

So the use of the word Huge & fked is hyperbole, glad we cleared that up

No, writing "BIg" using 72pt numbers was hyperbole - and also a joke. Choosing the words "huge" and "fked" was just an elegant and apt use of English.

[gruffalo]

Strocky said:

simoid said:

Talk of nationalist and unionist parties worries me

Why you vote for a Unionist party?

It smack rather of 70's and 80's NI.

This was mentioned as a concern by some on this thread in the lead up to the referendum when it was clear that some of the campaigning was a little robust.

[Strocky]

Ridgemont said:

Edinburger said:

She just said "Even if the SNP win every seat in Scotland next week - that us not a mandate for another referendum".

If she holds her line in her conference, and subsequent manifesto for the 2016 Holyrood elections then I will accept she is a woman of principle. OTOH with Sillars on maneuvers I fully expect to see referendum back on the cards next year, not least because I suspect that the huge figures the SNP are polling are unsustainable without some red meat.

Sillars is too busy with his day of reckoning plans to even have the time to propose another referendum as a SNP member with a solitary vote

In real terms it would be madness for the SNP to want another referendum so quickly after the last one as they wouldn't be assured of a victory (and if they lost again it would kill them stone dead)

Now in another 10/15 years.............

[Strocky]

spitsfire said:

fluffnik said:

The SNP are now the majority, they've been polling consistently over 50% for the last week or so and are set to take all 59 seats.

I have a suspicion that the polling isn't a genuine reflection of voting intentions across the populous as a whole for a couple of reasons;

1) In the current climate, Nat voters are highly motivated and believe they're champions of social justice. They'd sit next to the phone for a week without going to the toilet if it gave them the opportunity to help 'shape' the opinion polls. As happened in 1992 with Major, I don't think those opposed to the SNP are quite so keen to publicise their opposition.

2) The less wealthy and well-educated you are, the more likely you are to vote SNP. These people are the least likely to vote, so polling that favours the SNP may not be replicated in the ballot.

As an aside, I'm amazed that nobody seems to be questioning the claim that having one political party holding all the seats is a great victory. It's not; it is a catastrophe for democracy and holding politicians to account. The Nats have spent years having a hissy about being disadvantaged by FPTP and demanding it be reviewed because it is 'undemocratic'. Now they've got the opportunity to gain control they're not complaining about the system, any more than they complained about winning a comfortable majority of seats at Holyrood despite not winning an overall majority at the ballot box.

They're playing by the rules of the game that doesn't usually suit the smaller parties, what do you want them to say, hey Scotland you voted democratically for us to represent you in Westminster, but hey it's not really cricket, so we won't bother going down to the HOC?

[Strocky]

simoid said:

Re. democracy: just imagine if we were going independent just now, and had decided on a FPTP system.

Every MSP in an independent Scotland would be SNP! Utopia!

They'd've set the ticking timebomb to go off...

As I've suggested before, the SNP are a means to an end for the majority of the new members, personally I don't agree with OFBA, the power they've given to Stephen House or wanting to scrap corroboration (I find them a bit too nanny state for my liking)

In the event of an iS, the SNP would fragment into left & right giving plenty of room for a truly socialist Labour Party, the greens with a decent voice and the conservatives with a small C would definitely have more representation

[Lefty]

Dinoboy said:

So as a Scottish voter who said No to independence, who should I vote for next Thursday?
Voting for labour may result in their forming a coalition with the SNP. Tories don't stand a chance up here. What to do.

Whoever stands the best chance of beating the SNP candidate in your constituency.

I'll be voting Lib Dem - purely in the hope that Salmond doesn't win. I've never voted Lib Dem in my life and never would if it wasn't for this opportunity.

[Garvin]

technodup said:

Garvin said:

if they do hold the 'balance of power' at Westminster they could just try and negotiate independence with a weak Milliband without the need for a referendum. They can try it - they've got nothing to lose in those circumstances.

Even they wouldn't be so stupid. There's be riots, and I'd be right at the front.

Don't get me wrong, such an approach would, IMHO, be a disaster for both the SNP and the Labour Party but I can see Sturgeon discussing it in private with Milliband and with Sturgeon hell bent on independence and Milliband desperate to remain as PM, one never knows . . . . . . .

[anonymous-user]

Lefty said:

Dinoboy said:

So as a Scottish voter who said No to independence, who should I vote for next Thursday?
Voting for labour may result in their forming a coalition with the SNP. Tories don't stand a chance up here. What to do.

Whoever stands the best chance of beating the SNP candidate in your constituency.

I'll be voting Lib Dem - purely in the hope that Salmond doesn't win. I've never voted Lib Dem in my life and never would if it wasn't for this opportunity.

Exactly that. I think if you don't want the SNP you should vote for either lib dem or labour, depending on who is more likely to win. There are quite a few seats in Edinburgh where Labour could quite easily beat the SNP candidate.

Despite having all the momentum, the SNP still avoid all the important questions and anyone talking against them gets shouted down. Edinburgh particularly has many traditional Conservative voters (older and well off) who will likely vote labour to keep the SNP out.

[simoid]

Strocky said:

So it was Cockburn that was being interviewed, a strange chap, gay but against gay marriage
I assume you didn't see Bernard Ponsonby interviewing him the other night then?

Aye, the MEP. Don't know much about him, expected embarrassment but none was forthcoming. Didn't see him with Bernard though.

[simoid]

gruffalo said:

Strocky said:

simoid said:

Talk of nationalist and unionist parties worries me

Why you vote for a Unionist party?

It smack rather of 70's and 80's NI.

This was mentioned as a concern by some on this thread in the lead up to the referendum when it was clear that some of the campaigning was a little robust.

Party that, and also because we've just punted the concept of an independent Scottish nation into oblivion by voting no in a "once in a lifetime opportunity".

So what's the point of division over constitutional lines?

[simoid]

Strocky said:

As I've suggested before, the SNP are a means to an end for the majority of the new members, personally I don't agree with OFBA, the power they've given to Stephen House or wanting to scrap corroboration (I find them a bit too nanny state for my liking)

In the event of an iS, the SNP would fragment into left & right giving plenty of room for a truly socialist Labour Party, the greens with a decent voice and the conservatives with a small C would definitely have more representation

As I said above - this seems strange that SNP members are supporting a party that doesn't suit their interests, and actively represses their dissent on such matters (see the new guidelines on criticising policy or whatever it was) when their ultimate aim has been rejected by the Scottish electorate.

All pain, no gain.

[Edinburger]

el stovey said:

Lefty said:

Dinoboy said:

So as a Scottish voter who said No to independence, who should I vote for next Thursday?
Voting for labour may result in their forming a coalition with the SNP. Tories don't stand a chance up here. What to do.

Whoever stands the best chance of beating the SNP candidate in your constituency.

I'll be voting Lib Dem - purely in the hope that Salmond doesn't win. I've never voted Lib Dem in my life and never would if it wasn't for this opportunity.

Exactly that. I think if you don't want the SNP you should vote for either lib dem or labour, depending on who is more likely to win. There are quite a few seats in Edinburgh where Labour could quite easily beat the SNP candidate.

Despite having all the momentum, the SNP still avoid all the important questions and anyone talking against them gets shouted down. Edinburgh particularly has many traditional Conservative voters (older and well off) who will likely vote labour to keep the SNP out.

I wouldn't be so sure. Edinburgh has suffered heavily at the hands of Labour-run councils for the last few decades so if the good people of Edinburgh were to tactically vote, for many people I doubt it would be in Labour's favour.

[Edinburger]

simoid said:

gruffalo said:

Strocky said:

simoid said:

Talk of nationalist and unionist parties worries me

Why you vote for a Unionist party?

It smack rather of 70's and 80's NI.

This was mentioned as a concern by some on this thread in the lead up to the referendum when it was clear that some of the campaigning was a little robust.

Party that, and also because we've just punted the concept of an independent Scottish nation into oblivion by voting no in a "once in a lifetime opportunity".

So what's the point of division over constitutional lines?

Comparisons with Northern Ireland are both very incorrect and unhelpful.

[technodup]

Edinburger said:

Comparisons with Northern Ireland are both very incorrect and unhelpful.

I think if Sturgeon pushes too far comparisons with NI might become more pertinent.

ETA http://www.thenational.scot/news/party-activist-tr...

SNP nationalists, Orange Order unionists, add some intimidation/threat/violence to the scenes in George Sq on referendum night and no, I can't see any comparison to NI.

I fear if Sturgeon gets her way this type of low level stuff could just be the start.

Edited by technodup on Friday 1st May 18:36

[simoid]

Edinburger said:

Comparisons with Northern Ireland are both very incorrect and unhelpful.

Totally. That's why I said I didn't like the parties being split unionist/nationalist. Pointless since nationalism should be dead and buried.