Scottish Referendum Your Vote Predictions
Discussion
doogz said:
fluffnik said:
65% Yes
35% No
85% Turnout
Is this what you genuinely think?35% No
85% Turnout
- 62% identified as Scottish in 2011 Census
- >1.3M have signed the Declaration for Yes
- Labour party loyalty seems to be crumbling
doogz said:
I understand you're a YES supporter, despite your assertations otherwise, and you want YES to win, you maybe even think YES will win, which is fine.
I've never pretended to be anything other than a supporter of Scottish independence, I've been on the case since 1974. 
doogz said:
But do you honestly believe it'll be by such a large margin?
Yup, it's what the canvassing suggests.Lots of Labour voters are concluding that taking this once in a lifetime opportunity is more important than any party loyalty.
A whole heap (c. 400k IIRC) of people have registered for the first time, because they've become politically engaged for the first time - I doubt they plan to prop up the status-quo...
The sudden influx of machine politicians from London seems to have swung a few our way too!
doogz said:
The 1.3m that have signed is what, 30% of those registered.
Near as dammit.doogz said:
You think the same again are going to vote YES?
Easily. It's mainly the long term political folks who have signed so far, the newly committed are still signing in droves...I'd be less surprised if Yes exceeded 70% than I would be if we failed to break 60%.
The Union is over, be happy.
fluffnik said:
A whole heap (c. 400k IIRC) of people have registered for the first time, because they've become politically engaged for the first time - I doubt they plan to prop up the status-quo...
Why do you propose that would be the case?It doesn't follow that someone has to have voted before in order to recognise utter stupidity when they see it and feel they have to help prevent it's eventual triumph over sense.
Like me, for example.
McWigglebum4th said:
fluffnik said:
- >1.3M have signed the Declaration for Yes
I guess I should have typed ">1.3M registered voters have signed the Declaration for Yes".
S13_Alan said:
fluffnik said:
A whole heap (c. 400k IIRC) of people have registered for the first time, because they've become politically engaged for the first time - I doubt they plan to prop up the status-quo...
Why do you propose that would be the case?It doesn't follow that someone has to have voted before in order to recognise utter stupidity when they see it and feel they have to help prevent it's eventual triumph over sense.
Like me, for example.
You are in for a big shock.
fluffnik said:
McWigglebum4th said:
fluffnik said:
- >1.3M have signed the Declaration for Yes
I guess I should have typed ">1.3M registered voters have signed the Declaration for Yes".
I can dig up pretty much everyone's name and address in the country with a few clicks.
Doesn't mean I am them.
The Declaration For Yes - would only be valid - with those signing to then receive a postal confirmation in plain envelope to the householder - to then log back in and type in a secure code.
Anything less than that is arse gravy.
But you are a clever cookie - you know this - right?
fluffnik said:
doogz said:
fluffnik said:
65% Yes
35% No
85% Turnout
Is this what you genuinely think?35% No
85% Turnout
- 62% identified as Scottish in 2011 Census
- >1.3M have signed the Declaration for Yes
- Labour party loyalty seems to be crumbling
doogz said:
I understand you're a YES supporter, despite your assertations otherwise, and you want YES to win, you maybe even think YES will win, which is fine.
I've never pretended to be anything other than a supporter of Scottish independence, I've been on the case since 1974. doogz said:
But do you honestly believe it'll be by such a large margin?
Yup, it's what the canvassing suggests.Lots of Labour voters are concluding that taking this once in a lifetime opportunity is more important than any party loyalty.
A whole heap (c. 400k IIRC) of people have registered for the first time, because they've become politically engaged for the first time - I doubt they plan to prop up the status-quo...
The sudden influx of machine politicians from London seems to have swung a few our way too!
doogz said:
The 1.3m that have signed is what, 30% of those registered.
Near as dammit.doogz said:
You think the same again are going to vote YES?
Easily. It's mainly the long term political folks who have signed so far, the newly committed are still signing in droves...I'd be less surprised if Yes exceeded 70% than I would be if we failed to break 60%.
The Union is over, be happy.
I can't help thinking that your 'union' with Europe will be far more painful than anything you've suffered so far.
The worst thing about this whole situation is I know a few people who aren't going to bother voting - I mean, what the actual f
k?
Do a few hours research or follow your heart, Yes, No, it doesn't matter which you choose as long as you do it with conviction, surely apathy is a fairly lame ideal in a situation like this?
k? Do a few hours research or follow your heart, Yes, No, it doesn't matter which you choose as long as you do it with conviction, surely apathy is a fairly lame ideal in a situation like this?
Axionknight said:
The worst thing about this whole situation is I know a few people who aren't going to bother voting - I mean, what the actual fk?
Do a few hours research or follow your heart, Yes, No, it doesn't matter which you choose as long as you do it with conviction, surely apathy is a fairly lame ideal in a situation like this?
Even if they went and spoilt the ballot paper in defiance.... it is something but not bothering to vote is shameful.k? Do a few hours research or follow your heart, Yes, No, it doesn't matter which you choose as long as you do it with conviction, surely apathy is a fairly lame ideal in a situation like this?
.... this leads back to late 1930's.... early 40's. discussion.
You have a moral obligation to vote.
S13_Alan said:
fluffnik said:
A whole heap (c. 400k IIRC) of people have registered for the first time, because they've become politically engaged for the first time - I doubt they plan to prop up the status-quo...
Why do you propose that would be the case?It doesn't follow that someone has to have voted before in order to recognise utter stupidity when they see it and feel they have to help prevent it's eventual triumph over sense.
Like me, for example.
k.The Radical Independence Campaign have been very active in getting folks registered and reckon to have signed ~140,000 (IIRC) up. It would surprise me if they didn't get most of them to the polls too.
I know a lot of people with fairly hardcore degrees - Maths PhDs, CompSci, MD, *Physics, etc - who think they recognise staying in the parasitic Union as utter stupidity, but they've mostly been registered for yonks, even if they can't always be bothered indicating a preference in General
fluffnik said:
GG89 said:
+1 please don't assume the first time voters are yessers.
You are in for a big shock.
I'm not referring to young first time voters, I'm referring to people who have seen no point in registering in years or decades, but see a point now. You are in for a big shock.
This isn't like any other election we have ever had.
Troubleatmill said:
The Declaration For Yes - would only be valid - with those signing to then receive a postal confirmation in plain envelope to the householder - to then log back in and type in a secure code.
Anything less than that is arse gravy.
But you are a clever cookie - you know this - right?
It's far from rigorous, true, but it's probably robust enough to be in the right ballpark.Anything less than that is arse gravy.
But you are a clever cookie - you know this - right?
It's first purpose is as information for the Yes campaign, it's value depends on it discarding false positives...
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