Hong kong protests - Huge

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Discussion

Leithen

10,893 posts

267 months

Monday 29th September 2014
quotequote all
Taiwan is the elephant in the room.

China needs a solution that retains control yet doesn't jeopardise it's long term desire for unification with ROC. Overt military intervention would set that back by years.

alfaman

6,416 posts

234 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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davepoth said:
No, but they are a little bit better than China. Only a little bit, but they are.
Don't be daft - Singapore is way ahead of China ... It's like saying South Korea is only a tiny bit ahead of North Korea.

( have lived in Singapore for 3 - 4 years )

foliedouce

3,067 posts

231 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
Democracy, just like the British appointed Governor for 100 years?


Testaburger

3,683 posts

198 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
True, but it was a condition of the handover.

This could get quite interesting, and will probably result in an historic precedence for one side.

Living here for several years, I can attest that it's been building for a while, and the pressure cooker steadily building for a few months.

Hong Kongers are certainly proud of being so, and place themselves, unquestionably, as being from HK, not china. Certain factors have added to that sense of identity in recent years - the conduct of mainlanders in HK, the cost of living, the real-estate market pricing out HKers, etc.; all this has created a growing resentment of the mainland.

I think the extent that they feel that way is showing itself, and I can't see the Occupy demonstration going away soon. The youngsters who are spearheading the campaign are extremely passionate about it, and the HK youth is a fairly radical, politically aware one.

As Zod says, I'm not sure the mainland want to strangle Santa on this one. The political climate is a vast influence on the financial climate. Unless they don't see the issue in strangling HK, businesses relocating elsewhere in the region, and HK becoming a second-tier Chinese city. Without the financial climate, HK really won't survive in anything like its current guise.

That said, China will either lose face in front of their own people by backing down and reinstating a true 'one country, two systems' approach or losing face with the rest of the world. Either option will come at cost. The fact that they are controlling the media exposure of this demonstration on the mainland perhaps indicates which way they are leaning. They have a lot to lose either way, now that they've decided to assert control over HK elections.

Interesting time ahead.

Zod

35,295 posts

258 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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Fittster said:
Zod said:
Fittster said:
If you google "Human Rights" + either Singapore or Kuala Lumpur you don't exactly see results that would please a Guardian reader.
But they don't shoot people en masse.
Did financial services industry leave China after Tiananmen Square? Nothing has really changed since that event so has the financial services industry decided it didn't matter?
The financial services industry is hardly in China. There are big offices, employing lots of people, but all the decisions are taken in HK and Singapore.

Zod

35,295 posts

258 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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Mermaid said:
Our other ex-colony - how long before they backtrack? when China starts selling US Treasury Bonds?

"White House spokesman John Earnest said the US was watching closely and supports the "aspirations of the Hong Kong people".
They won't do that. The US Treasury Bonds are the only substance backing up the Renminbi.

Zod

35,295 posts

258 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
scorp said:
Zod said:
The financial services industry is hardly in China. There are big offices, employing lots of people, but all the decisions are taken in HK and Singapore.
Saw a graph somewhere which showed Hong Kongs declining GDP relative to China, today it's worth around 1%.
That's due entirely to Chinese growth. If you looked at financial services GDP, you'd see a different picture, although financial services GDP in China is hugely inflated by reckless lending by state-owned banks.

scorp

8,783 posts

229 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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Zod said:
That's due entirely to Chinese growth. If you looked at financial services GDP, you'd see a different picture, although financial services GDP in China is hugely inflated by reckless lending by state-owned banks.
Was in the middle of rewording my original post smile

Yes you're right this is down to China's growth and not HKs decline, the point is that China doesn't rely on HK economically, making HK more dispensable.

One thing has to be said, the protesters here are being very civilised, no burning cars or smashed shop fronts in sight. Although commuting is a fking pain at the moment.

Shaoxter

4,079 posts

124 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
Pretty funny to see the BBC harping on about protests spreading to the mainland - it's not gonna happen. People nowadays care about money and prosperity, not democracy.

The protests are more about the resentment towards mainlanders inflating house prices/using health services/buying up the infant formula/displaying general rudeness rather than democracy. After all, it was under non-democratic British rule for decades.

davepoth

29,395 posts

199 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
quotequote all
scorp said:
Was in the middle of rewording my original post smile

Yes you're right this is down to China's growth and not HKs decline, the point is that China doesn't rely on HK economically, making HK more dispensable.

One thing has to be said, the protesters here are being very civilised, no burning cars or smashed shop fronts in sight. Although commuting is a fking pain at the moment.
Economically, probably not. But in macroeconomic terms the idea of something drastic happening to Hong Kong (in any direction) will cause questions. And as we found out from the Scotland debacle, the market doesn't like questions. China's economy feels quite fragile at the moment, and I would think that the uncertainty might cause some problems.

scorp

8,783 posts

229 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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Shaoxter said:
The protests are more about the resentment towards mainlanders inflating house prices/using health services/buying up the infant formula/displaying general rudeness rather than democracy. After all, it was under non-democratic British rule for decades.
More sinister was recent proposals to change the history teaching here at school to be more patriotic, as well as focusing on teaching in Mandarin. Everyone can see the writing on the wall for the local culture.

fido

16,797 posts

255 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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Shaoxter said:
The protests are more about the resentment towards mainlanders inflating house prices/using health services/buying up the infant formula/displaying general rudeness rather than democracy. After all, it was under non-democratic British rule for decades.
Yes, that was often mentioned by the locals - but it's not different to people in the south-east (UK)complaining about the oligarchs/BRICS/PIGS buying up bits of London and general living costs. The main gripe is with China's interference in the election of their local executive - poor analogy perhaps but if the UK government vetted the candidates for the mayoral election in London?

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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Clegg has summoned the Chinese Ambassador - yep, that will sort things out in Hong Kong.

loose cannon

6,030 posts

241 months

Tuesday 30th September 2014
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A friends wife is a shoe purchaser for a major store and buys/ visits China regularly , she has said that China has changed drastically in just 10 years , most of the younger generation see the old guard and communism as a past parasite that will soon be finished and roll on living in the modern world.
I can foresee much trouble in China over the next decade

TVR1

5,463 posts

225 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
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Well, the tanks are on the streets now so I guess we know which way things are going....



Edited by TVR1 on Wednesday 1st October 14:13

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
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Wow!


Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

231 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
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strudel said:
Jimbeaux said:
This is why the Chinese need a larger military, to keep their own people in line.
Does the government not serve the people? If tens of thousands are protesting, that to me implies there may be a little grievance requiring listening to. Not oppressing.
You and I are in agreement. That was sarcasm on my part.

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

231 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
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Chimune said:
So hows this gonna end ?
I cant see China giving in, but they wont be sending the army / tanks in either. So how can it be resolved ?
Precedence says they will send in the tanks. Then again, I am sure they don't want those iconic images repeated.

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

231 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
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Mermaid said:
The UK Foreign Office said it was "concerned" by the heavy response in its former colony - but China has warned the international community not to "interfere".

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said: "Hong Kong is China's Hong Kong. Hong Kong is purely our internal affair.

"We are resolutely opposed to any foreign country using any method to interfere in China's internal affairs."
Is it not true that handing over the colony came with written and agreed upon conditions? If so, is it not proper to "interfere" if said agreements are not being adhered to?

Jimbeaux

Original Poster:

33,791 posts

231 months

Wednesday 1st October 2014
quotequote all
Mermaid said:
Our other ex-colony - how long before they backtrack? when China starts selling US Treasury Bonds?

"White House spokesman John Earnest said the US was watching closely and supports the "aspirations of the Hong Kong people".
China can't afford to do that; worry not.