UKIP - The Future - Volume 3

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don4l

10,058 posts

175 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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IainT said:
I can't see Labour forming a coalition with UKIP so that's just plain stupid and we can see that they've hoovered up support from the Libdims and Tories.

The phrase "Vote UKIP, get Labour" is looking less unreasonable.

I can understand UKIP supporters being disillusioned with the coalition and a rather centrist Conservative party but preferring Labour is just plain crazy. Of all the policies that UKIP push for which OTHER party with a realistic change of forming a government is closest to them?

People have to vote with their consciences, I get that, but surely the right-wing ethos shouldn't support all the things they are against - Labour?
If just a quarter of Conservative voters in Heywood had voted UKIP, then we would have one less Labour MP.

The only way to keep Labour out in the North, is to vote UKIP. Let's hope that people wake up to this new reality before next May.

Camoradi

4,285 posts

255 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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Kermit power said:
Well what's the point in being able to refuse foreigners entry if you're just going to let them all stay anyway?
the point is that if we leave the EU, the UK government gets to choose who stays and who doesn't.

Crush

15,077 posts

168 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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TLandCruiser said:
I agree completely and not even the BBC can grasp why UKIP are being successful according to their article "The Rise of UKIP"; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21614073 As they just write about how UKIP are anti EU and thats the appeal, when they miss the point entirely. Its time for a fresh change in politics instead of the usual dribble coming from the other parties. I like Nigel Farages straight talking to the point answers who can relate to know what its like to be an average UK citizen..Something the others can not grasp.

Whats more annoying and I find so stupid is that they try to dismiss UKIP as either being racist or protest voters instead of actually looking at the manifesto etc.

Edited by TLandCruiser on Friday 10th October 09:44
One of the reasons that UKIP interest me is their stance on MMGW, they're the only party not supporting the religious rubbish.



anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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TLandCruiser said:
the BBC <snip> miss the point entirely. Its time for a fresh change in politics instead of the usual dribble coming from the other parties. I like Nigel Farages straight talking to the point answers who can relate to know what its like to be an average UK citizen..Something the others can not grasp.
You really believe that? Really?

You could have written that precise sentence in 2010, replacing "Nigel Farage" with "Nick Clegg". Look how that went.

Transmitter Man

4,253 posts

223 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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JF87 said:
Isn't it just? Right-wing vote irreperably cleaved, Lab share of vote up in a safe seat on a feebly low turnout - and thanks to the rejection of AV, still not a hope in hell that UKIP will return more than a couple of MPs in a general election!

party
Congratulations to UKIP.

With the current voting system and with 650 MP's in Westminster just exactly how many seats would UKIP have to win in a GE to take power?

Phil

supersingle

3,205 posts

218 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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The Tories split the UKIP vote! Vote Tory get labour.

FiF

43,965 posts

250 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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Guam said:
Alex said:
Stunning results from UKIP last night. I can see them winning seats in the General Election now, 20 or even 30.

Heywood & Middleton shows, "Vote Tory, Get Labour!"
Bugger was just typing my feelings on this when the mods bolted the doors smile


Not sure on the numbers however it does make FIF and my forecast of a Bloodbath across Eastern England seem much more likely and that could certainly get the figures beyond 10 on its own.
On the other thread I have stuck with my prediction of 3-6 possibly 10, but increasingly it looks to be the higher end of that range is likely.

As before though, the real problem in prediction is the way votes are spraying everywhere, especially with the implosion of the LibDem vote nationally. Local hotbeds of sandals may react differently.

Plus the Greens, don't forget the Greens.

This election may show boots out on the streets and doorsteps are pivotal. Greens may turn out to have a good few activists willing to turn out on the scent of blood, which is ironic.

Tory footsoldiers disappearing in droves apart from bright young things anxious to join the trough.

Labour always traditionally good at this.

UKIP not so organised or professional, but lots of strong second places in 2015, a term of an unpopular government, get an organisation in place, get a costed budget of some sorts due to more information available to parties with sitting MPs, then political classes watch out 2020.


PRTVR

7,073 posts

220 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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The Don of Croy said:
Mrr T said:
Might have something to do with the 2 million UK passport holders living and working in the EU.
Wow - I can believe 2 million living in Europe, but working? Please confirm source of this...
Just what I was thinking, my guess is most are pensioners in Spain.

johnxjsc1985

15,948 posts

163 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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wait for the abuse to start. UKIP and anyone associated with it will get some flak between now and May 2015.
Very satisfied with last night's result and confirmation that an awful lot of people regardless of previous political persuasion will vote UKIP.

wc98

10,334 posts

139 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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well done douglas carswell ,and so it begins smile

wc98

10,334 posts

139 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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Guam said:
You keep telling yourself that, wait until the analysis is in (based on last night) of certain known "at risk seats" across East Anglia then we can draw sensible conclusions regarding their probable numbers.
ye,crushing victory, by 613 seats. every labour politicians bum in the country is twitching now .

johnxjsc1985

15,948 posts

163 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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wc98 said:
ye,crushing victory, by 613 seats. every labour politicians bum in the country is twitching now .
if they don't understand the message then what happens in May will be down to them they have been warned

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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johnxjsc1985 said:
wait for the abuse to start. UKIP and anyone associated with it will get some flak between now and May 2015.
Very satisfied with last night's result and confirmation that an awful lot of people regardless of previous political persuasion will vote UKIP.
If by "abuse", you mean "magnifying glass", that's right. UKIP have been at the margins. Running up to the next election they and their policies will be much more closely examined by the media, and rightly so.

That's what happens when you draw attention to yourself. You get attention.

johnxjsc1985

15,948 posts

163 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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Greg66 said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
wait for the abuse to start. UKIP and anyone associated with it will get some flak between now and May 2015.
Very satisfied with last night's result and confirmation that an awful lot of people regardless of previous political persuasion will vote UKIP.
If by "abuse", you mean "magnifying glass", that's right. UKIP have been at the margins. Running up to the next election they and their policies will be much more closely examined by the media, and rightly so.

That's what happens when you draw attention to yourself. You get attention.
as long as it is balanced along with the other parties then that is expected.

Scuffers

20,887 posts

273 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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PRTVR said:
Just what I was thinking, my guess is most are pensioners in Spain.
and it would be suicide for the Spanish (region) to kick them out

Cheese Mechanic

3,157 posts

168 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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Anybody know if UKIP are standing in Peterborough in the GE? The sitting tory (Stewart Jackson) has been a darn good MP , so a quandary for the likes of me. Have to say though, from memory, he, (Jackson) I'm [pretty sure is a Euro sceptic.

Dog Star

16,079 posts

167 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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IainT said:
I can't see Labour forming a coalition with UKIP so that's just plain stupid and we can see that they've hoovered up support from the Libdims and Tories.

The phrase "Vote UKIP, get Labour" is looking less unreasonable.
People keep ignoring the fact that in huge swathes of, for example, the North a conservative vote is absolutely worthless - you might as well burn your ballot paper. However in these same seats I strongly suspect that UKIP have a very strong chance of winning them from Labour.

So it all depends on whether there was any realistic chance of a conservative win - if yes then "Vote UKIP, get Labour" is true, if no then "Vote Conservative, get Labour" is the case (as it was in Heywood).

RobGT81

5,227 posts

185 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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johnxjsc1985 said:
as long as it is balanced along with the other parties then that is expected.
Indeed. It will make a nice change for the media to focus on UKIPs policies, rather than just branding them racist/protest vote.

brenflys777

2,678 posts

176 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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Kermit power said:
brenflys777 said:
Timsta said on vol. 2:


UKIP won 50% of the seats last night.

Share of votes over both seats:
UKIP 50.82%
Lab 24.66%
Con 19.30%

But of course, they are just a protest party.




That's a shocking figure for both UKIP and the conservatives. They can insult and belittle it, but a majority of those who voted went with UKIP.
Whilst factually accurate to say that the majority of those who voted went with UKIP, that has to be viewed in context of over half those who voted going with their incumbent MP who, from all the reports I've seen, is a good, diligent constituency MP.

Even though they didn't win the other election, I suspect Farage will actually be more pleased with the result there from a strategic perspective.
I can see your point but, the bald figure is over half the actual voters chose UKIP. It's a shockingly high figure.

I can see your point about Carswell. I don't know him but the fact he resigned and have his constituents a by election is a good sign to me. Evidently he won comfortably and it's unlikely he would have done so well as an unknown candidate.

However, whilst Carswell could benefit from his past reputation, the Labour candidate in Middleton benefitted from her predecessor being a diligent and good MP too. Middleton was served well by Jim Dobson and having grown up there, for Labour to have kept the seat by only a few hundred votes is remarkable. I think you are right about the significance of Middleton, it shows the conservatives aren't close to taking traditional Labour seats but UKIP are. It highlights just how ridiculous the vote UKIP get Labour nonsense is. If the conservatives want to win they have to change not just insult former conservative voters like myself as thicko's or racists!

Over half the actual voters yesterday voted UKIP. It's a big result.

WinstonWolf

72,857 posts

238 months

Friday 10th October 2014
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Cheese Mechanic said:
Anybody know if UKIP are standing in Peterborough in the GE? The sitting tory (Stewart Jackson) has been a darn good MP , so a quandary for the likes of me. Have to say though, from memory, he, (Jackson) I'm [pretty sure is a Euro sceptic.
Wouldn't surprise me if SJ defected. Cereste makes the Tories un-votable in local elections IMO...
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