UKIP - The Future - Volume 3

[Scuffers]

BlackLabel said:

The bookies now have UKIP as odds on to win 6 or more seats in 2015. This time last year they were odds against (and by some margin) to even pick up 1 seat.

so, here in PH land, what's the consensus?

A <10?
B 10-20?
C >20?

I thinking B is a pretty safe bet?

[johnxjsc1985]

Scuffers said:

so, here in PH land, what's the consensus?

A <10?
B 10-20?
C >20?

I thinking B is a pretty safe bet?

I would go with B as well .However if Dave and Ed continue to alienate people then who knows how many they could get but definitely double figures. If the media keep calling people names and creating scaremonger stories then UKIP do not have to actually do much between now and next May

[Yazar]

Scuffers said:

BlackLabel said:

The bookies now have UKIP as odds on to win 6 or more seats in 2015. This time last year they were odds against (and by some margin) to even pick up 1 seat.

so, here in PH land, what's the consensus?

A <10?
B 10-20?
C >20?

I thinking B is a pretty safe bet?

Need to see what Comb Me Dave comes up with in his upcoming Immigration speech, the stakes are so high for him he may well go all out on immigration.

[Mermaid]

Yazar said:

Need to see what Comb Me Dave comes up with in his upcoming Immigration speech, the stakes are so high for him he may well go all out on immigration.

Zero immigration for 5 years, and then a new points system will please the natives (& recent immigrants)

[Scuffers]

Mermaid said:

Yazar said:

Need to see what Comb Me Dave comes up with in his upcoming Immigration speech, the stakes are so high for him he may well go all out on immigration.

Zero immigration for 5 years, and then a new points system will please the natives (& recent immigrants)

realistically, he just can't go anything like that far, so to even hint at promising this would be blatant lying.

it's about as credible as him saying he is backing Brexit...

[Mermaid]

Scuffers said:

Mermaid said:

Yazar said:

Need to see what Comb Me Dave comes up with in his upcoming Immigration speech, the stakes are so high for him he may well go all out on immigration.

Zero immigration for 5 years, and then a new points system will please the natives (& recent immigrants)

realistically, he just can't go anything like that far, so to even hint at promising this would be blatant lying.

it's about as credible as him saying he is backing Brexit...

Been lying about 10's of thousands, that had no basis too. Bold.

[XJ Flyer]

Mermaid said:

Yazar said:

Need to see what Comb Me Dave comes up with in his upcoming Immigration speech, the stakes are so high for him he may well go all out on immigration.

Zero immigration for 5 years, and then a new points system will please the natives (& recent immigrants)

He could blow UKIP out of the water by simply calling an EU referendum with a date set for before the general election and going for the retrospective EU immigration policy that UKIP bottled out of.The Libdems are in no position to challenge it.The fact is he won't because UKIP are effectively the Cons insurance policy against a Labour win at the next election.

Which just leaves the question of a massive change in the Labour Party by ditching Miliband and all of its socialist dogma and then making a sharp move to the so called right of UKIP by going for the above policy.

[McWigglebum4th]

XJ Flyer said:

He could blow UKIP out of the water by simply calling an EU referendum with a date set for before the general election and going for the retrospective EU immigration policy that UKIP bottled out of.The Libdems are in no position to challenge it.The fact is he won't because UKIP are effectively the Cons insurance policy against a Labour win at the next election.

Which just leaves the question of a massive change in the Labour Party by ditching Miliband and all of its socialist dogma and then making a sharp move to the so called right of UKIP by going for the above policy.

Very few folk in the UK are quite as twisted and fked up as you

So while it would win your vote

It wouldn't win mine

[XJ Flyer]

McWigglebum4th said:

XJ Flyer said:

He could blow UKIP out of the water by simply calling an EU referendum with a date set for before the general election and going for the retrospective EU immigration policy that UKIP bottled out of.The Libdems are in no position to challenge it.The fact is he won't because UKIP are effectively the Cons insurance policy against a Labour win at the next election.

Which just leaves the question of a massive change in the Labour Party by ditching Miliband and all of its socialist dogma and then making a sharp move to the so called right of UKIP by going for the above policy.

Very few folk in the UK are quite as twisted and fked up as you

So while it would win your vote

It wouldn't win mine

That would of course depend on how many Labour voters would prefer something like a Powell led Conservative and Shore led Labour coalition from 1975 with hindsight.As opposed to Callaghan,Blair and Minibrain.

Edited by XJ Flyer on Saturday 22 November 15:59

[FiF]

McWigglebum4th said:

XJ Flyer said:

The fact is he won't because UKIP are effectively the Cons insurance policy against a Labour win at the next election.

Very few folk in the UK are quite as twisted and fked up as you

So while it would win your vote

It wouldn't win mine

Whilst there are few posters on PH more out in lala land than the old outside lane flyer he has, strangely for him, the edge of a semi sensible point.

UKIP will be Cameron's sole proffered excuse / scapegoat when he doesn't get returned with an outright majority in May. Thus he will be ignoring the truth that he has so screwed up the CConservative party, compounded by being so devoid of both ideas and principles, together with not being able to organise his way out of a paper bag, that the Conservative party are almost as unelectable as the other two main sets of useless tits.

God I feel dirty for even having read one of Flyer's rabid random key bashing exhibiting frequent failures of the space key as usual.

[FiF]

Well has Austin Mitchell just handed Grimsby to UKIP. Said on BBC R4 that Miliband was completely wrong to sack Thornberry and basically she didn't do much wrong and should have refused to go. Also no respect for white van man apart from the terrible way WVM drives out of self preservation.

Oh dear.

[Scuffers]

When in a hole stop digging

[FiF]

Latest forecast update: Con 286, Lab 280, LD 24, SNP 34, UKIP 4.

91% probability hung parliament.


More details at
http://electionforecast.co.uk

[XJ Flyer]

FiF said:

Latest forecast update: Con 286, Lab 280, LD 24, SNP 34, UKIP 4.

91% probability hung parliament.


More details at
http://electionforecast.co.uk

Assuming a socialist alliance of LabLibdemSNP that is far from a hung parliament.More like a pro EU pro immigration nightmare at least for the south east.If it is accurate Farage and maybe by then Davis will regret that support of the Scottish no to independence vote.

[Scuffers]

FiF said:

Latest forecast update: Con 286, Lab 280, LD 24, SNP 34, UKIP 4.

91% probability hung parliament.


More details at
http://electionforecast.co.uk

Is it credible that the libdems get 24 seats and ukip 4?

[johnxjsc1985]

Scuffers said:

Is it credible that the libdems get 24 seats and ukip 4?

No it would be a miracle

[NicD]

No, a disaster.

[FiF]

Scuffers said:

Is it credible that the libdems get 24 seats and ukip 4?

Well yes it is credible based on the current information. It's done by drilling down to constituency level and applying what might happen based on previous results, geography, socio-economic factors and local polling where available. There's not much of the latter. It can't take account if there's a particularly popular candidate standing, especially if it's their first time in the seat.

It's a base line best way of describing it. What ought to happen if things stay as they are. But there are still, as always the known unknowns, e.g. defections and the unknown unknowns e.g. Nigel Farage has a serious illness, say, or a terrorist attack and Govt is seen to be particularly effective/ineffective, or the EU does something loopy again.

So as always there is an experimental error margin, there's the adjustment not made based on gut feel, and it's a snapshot not a prediction.

If you want me to add the gut feel mentioned above, then imho LD is a bit high and UKIP a bit low but only by a small number in each case.

[Scuffers]

I would be amazed if the libdems get 10 next time round.

[BlackLabel]

Scuffers said:

FiF said:

Latest forecast update: Con 286, Lab 280, LD 24, SNP 34, UKIP 4.

91% probability hung parliament.


More details at
http://electionforecast.co.uk

Is it credible that the libdems get 24 seats and ukip 4?

Many of the Lib Dem seats are or have been 2 horse races between the Lib Dems and the Tories with Labour nowhere to be seen. I think they will keep a fair few of these especially with UKIP in the picture taking more of the Tory votes than they do the Lib Dem ones like they did in Eastleigh