UKIP - The Future - Volume 3
Discussion
FiF said:
So will Cameron's speech kill UKIP?
If he does, as expected, set out some red lines which could mean he campaigns for Brexit, will Wombat Zod et al who were most vocal that this was a wrong thing to do then change?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration...
The trouble is he's left his moment of awakening too late to be credible. It looks and seems like a cynical attempt to pass off doing nothing yet, as another promise he'll carry forward if he wins. If he does, as expected, set out some red lines which could mean he campaigns for Brexit, will Wombat Zod et al who were most vocal that this was a wrong thing to do then change?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration...
I suspect his speech will also struggle to balance his pro EU, pro immigration record with wanting to sound tough - we need to control immigration - which is wonderful - but we are tough on the excessive immigration - which is only a small part etc etc!
So Cameron has said he will negotiate with the EU to change benefits available to EU migrants. He will do this if he is PM after GE.
One example he gave of current benefits paid was to 400,000 EU migrants in work in the UK on minimum wage receive £700 a month in benefits, so that is £3.36bn per year.
No negotiation to cap numbers, just access to benefits. Of course all other 27 member states must agree
One example he gave of current benefits paid was to 400,000 EU migrants in work in the UK on minimum wage receive £700 a month in benefits, so that is £3.36bn per year.
No negotiation to cap numbers, just access to benefits. Of course all other 27 member states must agree
I think that Cameron gave a blinder of a speech. It hasn't changed my mind about anything, but I think that many waverers will be convinced.
One thing that this speech demonstrates is that UKIP are driving UK politics at the moment. Cameron looked like a puppet with Nigel's hand up his backside, which goes to demonstrate that we must keep up the pressure.
One thing was very clear, Cameron still cannot see any circumstances where he would support a Brexit.
One thing that this speech demonstrates is that UKIP are driving UK politics at the moment. Cameron looked like a puppet with Nigel's hand up his backside, which goes to demonstrate that we must keep up the pressure.
One thing was very clear, Cameron still cannot see any circumstances where he would support a Brexit.
Guam said:
So what do these remarks say about cmd and the Tory faithful like wombat and zod?
I'll give womby and the General the benefit of the doubt for now, since I've not seen a comment from either. Wavy Davy still just looks like the oleaginous, mendacious weasel I already believed him to be.FiF said:
So will Cameron's speech kill UKIP?
Nope- as he hasn't gone far enough, for example ability to cap in periods of excessive movement, checks on any previous convictions prior to entry etc. But will depends how well he markets it, as one mp today put it "he has given us enough to say on the doorstep".
BBC user comments: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30241251
chris watton said:
Does anyone (apart from the die-hard CMD groupies) believe a single word this guy utters anymore?
I certainly don't.
Being that he is a committed Europhile acting on behalf of his CBI cronies there is no way that he could truthfully follow the Farage line whatever he says.Firstly we need to get out of the EU ASAP the we need to make it clear to the EU dictators that we won't be bullied and blackmailed into following the EU line like Switzerland has allowed itself to be.If they want a trade war over free movement then bring it on.I certainly don't.
CMD will (like most modern mainstream politicians), say only what he (or his spin doctors) think the public want to hear. Whether he believes it or will follow up on it is irrelevant to him, saying the 'wrong' thing is political suicide. At present the rise of UKIP is steering him to say anti EU stuff, but he's rapidly loosing credibility as more voters start to see through it. He's promised an in/out EU referendum, but less and less people believe he'll really do it.
The EU has gone so far beyond the free trade market that the only way it can work is as one big federal nation. It needs to have the same currency, taxes and benefits, minimum wage, interest rates etc right across the board. Or it just won't work. The whole of the EU needs to embrace that idea or opposing countries leave the Union.
For the federal EU to work it means leveling the wealth and performance of each and every nation within it. This is what they are trying, crudely, to achieve with subsidies. But there is a massive difference between the wealthy EU countries like UK and Germany, and the developing ones. The wealthy ones have to suffer in order to bring the others up to a standard, where we all meet somewhere in the middle. How many UK voters actually want the UK to be assimilated into the EU to that extent? A significant proportion of Scotland want out of a much smaller union as they feel it isn't working for them. If the UK is too big to work, then how does that bode for the EU?
I feel that there are too many differences between EU countries financially, geographically, culturally, and politically for a federal EU to work.
The EU has gone so far beyond the free trade market that the only way it can work is as one big federal nation. It needs to have the same currency, taxes and benefits, minimum wage, interest rates etc right across the board. Or it just won't work. The whole of the EU needs to embrace that idea or opposing countries leave the Union.
For the federal EU to work it means leveling the wealth and performance of each and every nation within it. This is what they are trying, crudely, to achieve with subsidies. But there is a massive difference between the wealthy EU countries like UK and Germany, and the developing ones. The wealthy ones have to suffer in order to bring the others up to a standard, where we all meet somewhere in the middle. How many UK voters actually want the UK to be assimilated into the EU to that extent? A significant proportion of Scotland want out of a much smaller union as they feel it isn't working for them. If the UK is too big to work, then how does that bode for the EU?
I feel that there are too many differences between EU countries financially, geographically, culturally, and politically for a federal EU to work.
steveT350C said:
So Cameron has said he will negotiate with the EU to change benefits available to EU migrants. He will do this if he is PM after GE.
One example he gave of current benefits paid was to 400,000 EU migrants in work in the UK on minimum wage receive £700 a month in benefits, so that is £3.36bn per year.
No negotiation to cap numbers, just access to benefits. Of course all other 27 member states must agree
Just read the speech. He said EU immigrants can get a maximum of £700 pw, and 400,000 receive some benefits. Completely different to your post. But as a kipper I am sure you know all EU immigrants are on minimum wage.One example he gave of current benefits paid was to 400,000 EU migrants in work in the UK on minimum wage receive £700 a month in benefits, so that is £3.36bn per year.
No negotiation to cap numbers, just access to benefits. Of course all other 27 member states must agree
chris watton said:
Does anyone (apart from the die-hard CMD groupies) believe a single word this guy utters anymore?
I certainly don't.
This is key. I certainly don't.
"I rule nothing out" is a clear invite for people to interpret his speech , and for it to be interpreted and spun in the future in any way that is desired.
Clearly he wants some to interpret it as "I will campaign for Brexit." Clearly whilst it's possible to interpret it that way, also it could mean caving in and just getting enough to say " well we got reform and on balance it's better to remain in" Or any number of other interpretations.
Weasel words as always.
Then there is the announcement of extra cash for areas hard pressed by migrants. The timing says to me he still doesn't get it and it's as blatant an election bribe as the last minute devo max malarkey on the Scottish independence vote, the week of the vote.
We shall have to see if it works. There are a lot of people who got fooled by him last time and won't get fooled again. It's given the candidates something to say on the doorstep to try and persuade waverers. Not enough imo but some will succumb.
Meanwhile need to study Ashcroft's constituency poll for my own area. Clearly we are going to get some attention. Look forward to the doorstep arguments.
Genuine Qs... if immigrants are overwhelming nett contributors how can changing benefits they get seriously affect the numbers coming here?
Even if these changes are successfully negotiated what guarantee is there it will reduce immigration when they would probably still earn more than in their own country?
Are there any definitive figures of how many immigrants get benefits, in and out of work?
Even if these changes are successfully negotiated what guarantee is there it will reduce immigration when they would probably still earn more than in their own country?
Are there any definitive figures of how many immigrants get benefits, in and out of work?
mjb1 said:
CMD will (like most modern mainstream politicians), say only what he (or his spin doctors) think the public want to hear. Whether he believes it or will follow up on it is irrelevant to him, saying the 'wrong' thing is political suicide. At present the rise of UKIP is steering him to say anti EU stuff, but he's rapidly loosing credibility as more voters start to see through it. He's promised an in/out EU referendum, but less and less people believe he'll really do it.
The EU has gone so far beyond the free trade market that the only way it can work is as one big federal nation. It needs to have the same currency, taxes and benefits, minimum wage, interest rates etc right across the board. Or it just won't work. The whole of the EU needs to embrace that idea or opposing countries leave the Union.
For the federal EU to work it means leveling the wealth and performance of each and every nation within it. This is what they are trying, crudely, to achieve with subsidies. But there is a massive difference between the wealthy EU countries like UK and Germany, and the developing ones. The wealthy ones have to suffer in order to bring the others up to a standard, where we all meet somewhere in the middle. How many UK voters actually want the UK to be assimilated into the EU to that extent? A significant proportion of Scotland want out of a much smaller union as they feel it isn't working for them. If the UK is too big to work, then how does that bode for the EU?
I feel that there are too many differences between EU countries financially, geographically, culturally, and politically for a federal EU to work.
The EU federation has all of the historic ingredients for it to break down into war in the long term.IE large slavic content who don't generally like taking no for an answer in the case of continuing wealth transfer in their favour stopping at any point.Together with ever closer moves to centralised federal government removing the right to self determination of previously sovereign nation states.It really is time for us to leave and leave quick,like overnight,tearing up any treaties and previous agreements on the basis that the present/future government has no responsibility to any agreements made by previous governments concerning handing the country over to what is a foreign federal government. The EU has gone so far beyond the free trade market that the only way it can work is as one big federal nation. It needs to have the same currency, taxes and benefits, minimum wage, interest rates etc right across the board. Or it just won't work. The whole of the EU needs to embrace that idea or opposing countries leave the Union.
For the federal EU to work it means leveling the wealth and performance of each and every nation within it. This is what they are trying, crudely, to achieve with subsidies. But there is a massive difference between the wealthy EU countries like UK and Germany, and the developing ones. The wealthy ones have to suffer in order to bring the others up to a standard, where we all meet somewhere in the middle. How many UK voters actually want the UK to be assimilated into the EU to that extent? A significant proportion of Scotland want out of a much smaller union as they feel it isn't working for them. If the UK is too big to work, then how does that bode for the EU?
I feel that there are too many differences between EU countries financially, geographically, culturally, and politically for a federal EU to work.
Mrr T said:
steveT350C said:
So Cameron has said he will negotiate with the EU to change benefits available to EU migrants. He will do this if he is PM after GE.
One example he gave of current benefits paid was to 400,000 EU migrants in work in the UK on minimum wage receive £700 a month in benefits, so that is £3.36bn per year.
No negotiation to cap numbers, just access to benefits. Of course all other 27 member states must agree
Just read the speech. He said EU immigrants can get a maximum of £700 pw, and 400,000 receive some benefits. Completely different to your post. But as a kipper I am sure you know all EU immigrants are on minimum wage.One example he gave of current benefits paid was to 400,000 EU migrants in work in the UK on minimum wage receive £700 a month in benefits, so that is £3.36bn per year.
No negotiation to cap numbers, just access to benefits. Of course all other 27 member states must agree
I would hate to think that anyone is trying to mislead people over this matter.
mrpurple said:
Genuine Qs... if immigrants are overwhelming nett contributors how can changing benefits they get seriously affect the numbers coming here?
My own view is it will have almost no effect.mrpurple said:
Even if these changes are successfully negotiated what guarantee is there it will reduce immigration when they would probably still earn more than in their own country?
Why do they need to be negotiated? Benefits is not an EU competency. Its just a matter of sensible regulations. mrpurple said:
Are there any definitive figures of how many immigrants get benefits, in and out of work?
CMD quotes 400k getting benefits which seems about right since child benefit is a universal allowance and about 25% of EU immigrants have children. The figures I see suggest about 5% are getting Job Seekers but this will include some who have been here up to 8 years paying taxes. With about 10% getting WFTC.XJ Flyer said:
The EU federation has all of the historic ingredients for it to break down into war in the long term.IE large slavic content who don't generally like taking no for an answer in the case of continuing wealth transfer in their favour stopping at any point.Together with ever closer moves to centralised federal government removing the right to self determination of previously sovereign nation states.It really is time for us to leave and leave quick,like overnight,tearing up any treaties and previous agreements on the basis that the present/future government has no responsibility to any agreements made by previous governments concerning handing the country over to what is a foreign federal government.
I agree with the sentiment of this. What the EU is attempting, historically has ended badly. We should leave and if/when it falls apart, not get dragged into Europe's mess.Mrr T said:
mrpurple said:
Genuine Qs... if immigrants are overwhelming nett contributors how can changing benefits they get seriously affect the numbers coming here?
My own view is it will have almost no effect.mrpurple said:
Even if these changes are successfully negotiated what guarantee is there it will reduce immigration when they would probably still earn more than in their own country?
Why do they need to be negotiated? Benefits is not an EU competency. Its just a matter of sensible regulations. mrpurple said:
Are there any definitive figures of how many immigrants get benefits, in and out of work?
CMD quotes 400k getting benefits which seems about right since child benefit is a universal allowance and about 25% of EU immigrants have children. The figures I see suggest about 5% are getting Job Seekers but this will include some who have been here up to 8 years paying taxes. With about 10% getting WFTC.So what is the re-negotiations all about? I though I saw that he would need EU agreement to make changes.
TBH As to relevance of stats...figures need a bit more thought on my part but many thanks for posting.
ETA Farages view that I just found: "If this was supposed to be the speech that turned the tide of Cameron's fortunes he may well wish he had never made it."
http://www.ukip.org/we_cannot_control_migration_wh...
Edited by mrpurple on Friday 28th November 13:21
FiF said:
So will Cameron's speech kill UKIP?
If he does, as expected, set out some red lines which could mean he campaigns for Brexit, will Wombat Zod et al who were most vocal that this was a wrong thing to do then change?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration...
i've never said he'd be wrong to campaign for Brexit. My line has always been that he should negotiate to win a much better set of terms for us in the EU with the genuine threat of Brexit if the EU won't play ball.If he does, as expected, set out some red lines which could mean he campaigns for Brexit, will Wombat Zod et al who were most vocal that this was a wrong thing to do then change?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration...
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