UKIP - The Future - Volume 3
Discussion
brenflys777 said:
I can see your point but, the bald figure is over half the actual voters chose UKIP. It's a shockingly high figure.
I can see your point about Carswell. I don't know him but the fact he resigned and have his constituents a by election is a good sign to me. Evidently he won comfortably and it's unlikely he would have done so well as an unknown candidate.
However, whilst Carswell could benefit from his past reputation, the Labour candidate in Middleton benefitted from her predecessor being a diligent and good MP too. Middleton was served well by Jim Dobson and having grown up there, for Labour to have kept the seat by only a few hundred votes is remarkable. I think you are right about the significance of Middleton, it shows the conservatives aren't close to taking traditional Labour seats but UKIP are. It highlights just how ridiculous the vote UKIP get Labour nonsense is. If the conservatives want to win they have to change not just insult former conservative voters like myself as thicko's or racists!
Over half the actual voters yesterday voted UKIP. It's a big result.
And yet this morning people on PH as saying only Bigots vote for UKIP. Its like the flat earth club has reformed. Those of us who cannot vote for the usual suspects at last have an alternative and we are going to make sure we use this opportunity. Is Cameron, Clegg and Milliband the best this country has to offer us?.I can see your point about Carswell. I don't know him but the fact he resigned and have his constituents a by election is a good sign to me. Evidently he won comfortably and it's unlikely he would have done so well as an unknown candidate.
However, whilst Carswell could benefit from his past reputation, the Labour candidate in Middleton benefitted from her predecessor being a diligent and good MP too. Middleton was served well by Jim Dobson and having grown up there, for Labour to have kept the seat by only a few hundred votes is remarkable. I think you are right about the significance of Middleton, it shows the conservatives aren't close to taking traditional Labour seats but UKIP are. It highlights just how ridiculous the vote UKIP get Labour nonsense is. If the conservatives want to win they have to change not just insult former conservative voters like myself as thicko's or racists!
Over half the actual voters yesterday voted UKIP. It's a big result.
On reflection, I could handle up to about 30 UKIP MPs. Should pretty well guarantee a Labour majority government.
Only downside is that when a huge chunk of these inevitably out themselves as idle, thick and offensive (cf the UKIP MEPs), the bottom will drop out of the UKIP vote market and we'll have to endure a Tory recovery.
Only downside is that when a huge chunk of these inevitably out themselves as idle, thick and offensive (cf the UKIP MEPs), the bottom will drop out of the UKIP vote market and we'll have to endure a Tory recovery.
Guam said:
Mrr T said:
Might have something to do with the 2 million UK passport holders living and working in the EU.
Well they made their choice, they moved overseas and no longer contribute to our economy so why should we concern ourselves with them?
k load more!brenflys777 said:
Kermit power said:
brenflys777 said:
Timsta said on vol. 2:
UKIP won 50% of the seats last night.
Share of votes over both seats:
UKIP 50.82%
Lab 24.66%
Con 19.30%
But of course, they are just a protest party.
That's a shocking figure for both UKIP and the conservatives. They can insult and belittle it, but a majority of those who voted went with UKIP.
Whilst factually accurate to say that the majority of those who voted went with UKIP, that has to be viewed in context of over half those who voted going with their incumbent MP who, from all the reports I've seen, is a good, diligent constituency MP.UKIP won 50% of the seats last night.
Share of votes over both seats:
UKIP 50.82%
Lab 24.66%
Con 19.30%
But of course, they are just a protest party.
That's a shocking figure for both UKIP and the conservatives. They can insult and belittle it, but a majority of those who voted went with UKIP.
Even though they didn't win the other election, I suspect Farage will actually be more pleased with the result there from a strategic perspective.
I can see your point about Carswell. I don't know him but the fact he resigned and have his constituents a by election is a good sign to me. Evidently he won comfortably and it's unlikely he would have done so well as an unknown candidate.
However, whilst Carswell could benefit from his past reputation, the Labour candidate in Middleton benefitted from her predecessor being a diligent and good MP too. Middleton was served well by Jim Dobson and having grown up there, for Labour to have kept the seat by only a few hundred votes is remarkable. I think you are right about the significance of Middleton, it shows the conservatives aren't close to taking traditional Labour seats but UKIP are. It highlights just how ridiculous the vote UKIP get Labour nonsense is. If the conservatives want to win they have to change not just insult former conservative voters like myself as thicko's or racists!
Over half the actual voters yesterday voted UKIP. It's a big result.
Wombat3 said:
I think the issue with that analysis is the turnout in H&M. It was something like 36%. Its unlikely that those that stayed at home were UKIP-ers & so in a GE when the turnout will be MUCH higher you would expect Labour to walk that one as usual.
You are missing one important point.The misguided voters in Heywood who put their "x" by the Conservative candidate are now aware that they need to vote UKIP to keep labour out. They will all do this at the next election.
In fact, if the Conservatives really want to stop Labour from winning the next election, then they shouldn't field any candidates in most northern constituencies.
don4l said:
You are missing one important point.
The misguided voters in Heywood who put their "x" by the Conservative candidate are now aware that they need to vote UKIP to keep labour out. They will all do this at the next election.
In fact, if the Conservatives really want to stop Labour from winning the next election, then they shouldn't field any candidates in most northern constituencies.
By the same token of course UKIP should not field anyone in areas where it risks splitting the vote and letting labour in.The misguided voters in Heywood who put their "x" by the Conservative candidate are now aware that they need to vote UKIP to keep labour out. They will all do this at the next election.
In fact, if the Conservatives really want to stop Labour from winning the next election, then they shouldn't field any candidates in most northern constituencies.
That of course is an electoral pact which both Cameron and Farage have ruled out - Farage certainly ruled it out whilst Cameron was the Tory leader.
Unlike at the local & euro elections (where a hard look at the numbers was far more dispaointing than the headlines and sound-bites stated), this clearly was a good day for UKIP.
The question though is whether it is a sign of a political movement breaking through (cf SDP for example), or of no more lasting significance than Martin Bell's election (which had a similar majority).
I doubt that agreement will be reached on here, but we won't really know until the GE. At the very least I agree that it will make politics over the next year more interesting
JustAnotherLogin said:
By the same token of course UKIP should not field anyone in areas where it risks splitting the vote and letting labour in.
That of course is an electoral pact which both Cameron and Farage have ruled out - Farage certainly ruled it out whilst Cameron was the Tory leader.
Before I joined UKIP I specifically asked this question and got negative replies both at a local level and even directly from Farage's office.That of course is an electoral pact which both Cameron and Farage have ruled out - Farage certainly ruled it out whilst Cameron was the Tory leader.
Due to overtures from Rees Mogg this was subsequently tested here in my local branch and any suggestions of a pact was given a resounding no in a vote of branch members.
I truly hope NO pact of any kind is agreed and that UKIP has the courage of it's convictions but if I am 100% honest (as I always am) part of me thinks some sort of deal will be done at some point.
mrpurple said:
Before I joined UKIP I specifically asked this question and got negative replies both at a local level and even directly from Farage's office.
Due to overtures from Rees Mogg this was subsequently tested here in my local branch and any suggestions of a pact was given a resounding no in a vote of branch members.
I truly hope NO pact of any kind is agreed and that UKIP has the courage of it's convictions but if I am 100% honest (as I always am) part of me thinks some sort of deal will be done at some point.
I think the chances of an electoral pact between anyone and anyone are about zero. Due to overtures from Rees Mogg this was subsequently tested here in my local branch and any suggestions of a pact was given a resounding no in a vote of branch members.
I truly hope NO pact of any kind is agreed and that UKIP has the courage of it's convictions but if I am 100% honest (as I always am) part of me thinks some sort of deal will be done at some point.
Post GE, if there is no one party with a Parliamentary majority*, then deals are there to be done.
The question I asked, and which was not answered, is what UKIP supporters would think were Farage invited into a governing coalition on terms that there would be an in/out referendum and nothing more in the next Parliament, where the alternative were he to say "no thanks" would be a Labour-led coalition with no chance of a referendum.
*Interesting to consider in these coalition Government time whether Sinn Fein might ever decide to take up their seats, either to make or block a coalition. One suspects not, but then...
Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 10th October 12:58
Scuffers said:
PRTVR said:
Just what I was thinking, my guess is most are pensioners in Spain.
and it would be suicide for the Spanish (region) to kick them outUK pensioner are a major issue for many Spanish because the demand they place on the Spanish health care system. Estimates are hard to come by but many is Spain consider the benefits of UK retires is far out weighted by the costs of health care.
Many would welcome the opportunity to throw them out. There view is that not only might it save money but it would reduce house prices.
Guam said:
Mrr T said:
Might have something to do with the 2 million UK passport holders living and working in the EU.
Well they made their choice, they moved overseas and no longer contribute to our economy so why should we concern ourselves with them?Also can you imagine the headlines if UKIP policies resulted in them having to move back to the UK having potentially lost lots on money selling homes abroad.
2m votes is a lot.
mrpurple said:
Before I joined UKIP I specifically asked this question and got negative replies both at a local level and even directly from Farage's office.
Due to overtures from Rees Mogg this was subsequently tested here in my local branch and any suggestions of a pact was given a resounding no in a vote of branch members.
I truly hope NO pact of any kind is agreed and that UKIP has the courage of it's convictions but if I am 100% honest (as I always am) part of me thinks some sort of deal will be done at some point.
Might change when Carswell replaces Nigel as leader.Due to overtures from Rees Mogg this was subsequently tested here in my local branch and any suggestions of a pact was given a resounding no in a vote of branch members.
I truly hope NO pact of any kind is agreed and that UKIP has the courage of it's convictions but if I am 100% honest (as I always am) part of me thinks some sort of deal will be done at some point.
JustAnotherLogin said:
Mrr T said:
Might change when Carswell replaces Nigel as leader.
What are the procedures within UKIP for selecting, challenging, replacing the leader?Mrr T said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
Mrr T said:
Might change when Carswell replaces Nigel as leader.
What are the procedures within UKIP for selecting, challenging, replacing the leader?Old news
Mrr T said:
Scuffers said:
PRTVR said:
Just what I was thinking, my guess is most are pensioners in Spain.
and it would be suicide for the Spanish (region) to kick them outUK pensioner are a major issue for many Spanish because the demand they place on the Spanish health care system. Estimates are hard to come by but many is Spain consider the benefits of UK retires is far out weighted by the costs of health care.
Many would welcome the opportunity to throw them out. There view is that not only might it save money but it would reduce house prices.
the vast majority of retired people out there have taken a shed load of cash with them, brought houses/land/etc. and pay their own way.
without their money, some of these places would just not exist, Take Marbella, without the brit's exactly what would it be?
Now demonstrate how the same can be said for any place in the UK?
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