UKIP - The Future - Volume 3

[JustAnotherLogin]

NicD said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

Well lets try shall we.

Lets start with the UKIP proposal to leave the EU and negotiate trade agreements. It has often been said on here that Germany will be particularly keen to get the EU to negotiate such an agreement "because they have a trade surplus with us". Agree so far?

In 2013 6.9% of their exports went to the UK. Whereas approx 50% of UK exports go to the EU.

In addition, the UK finance sector is heavily dependent on being inside the EU for trading in Euro oriented markets

Furthermore trade treaties have to consider not only tariffs but regulations. The EU has already a set that deals with external trading partners, whereas we would have to start from scratch (as UKIP will sifting through the regulations they like). So the EU will have the advantage there too.

Lastly, for PHers particularly, there will be reluctance to give up on their beloved BMWS, Mercs, Porches, VWs, Ferraris, Lambos etc. Whereas the (now very large) UK car industry will mostly relocate to the EU to be inside the EU free trade area.

So. In what way will Germany have more to lose than us, and be more desperate than us to negotiate a treaty?

I cant speak for what others have written.
We are not in a good place now. If we leave, for sure there will be a period of adjustment. This may be painful, especially as politicians from some EU countries may try to prove a point.
After a period, things will settle and I have confidence in the people.

As for the City, well, a dependence on the financial sector is not advisable in the long term.

Your problem is the same as anyone. You can quote some selective statistics, but no one can predict the future. If you could, you could retire from here and make your fortune spread betting.

So that is the extent of your intellectual argument? "no-one can predict the future".

And FYI, I do very nicely from investments thanks very much.

[NicD]

JustAnotherLogin said:

So that is the extent of your intellectual argument? "no-one can predict the future".

And FYI, I do very nicely from investments thanks very much.

Do you read all the words written, or pick out just one or two?

[handpaper]

don4l said:

Why is it that you lefties feel that it is OK to just make stuff up?

Its 'coz theyz kreativ, innit?

(Slightly more) seriously, Hannan did a piece a year or so back asking why so many look to actors, writers, authors - professional fantasists and liars - for guidance on what to think.

Found it :
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...

[XJ Flyer]

Gaspode said:

XJ Flyer said:

I actually said that we were trading German manufactured goods that we 'could' make for ourselves.In exchange for oil that we 'could' have kept at home on the domestic market to insulate ourselves from the embargo and resulting world market price hikes caused by the OPEC sanctions regarding perceived western support of Israel in the 1973 war.

So no we weren't 'forced' to 'sell' them cheap oil.We actually effectively 'gave' it to them in exchange for the privilege of queues at the pumps here and massive fuel price increases on a daily basis.The answer from the Europhile Cons and their crony Wilson to the question why usually being answered by the lie that North Sea oil was no good for making petrol or diesel.

When in fact it was being handed to the EU in addition to our other 'contributions' for the privilege of importing stuff from the EU which we didn't need because we could make it for ourselves.

That situation also based on the lie that British workers couldn't make stuff as competitively as the Germans.The result usually being those who believed it thinking that their late 1950's Ford type front suspension and steering set up and early 1960's Triumph type rear suspension set up,3.0 litre,6 cylinder BMW,was worth over twice the price of a domestic made Jag XJ12 with wishbone suspension all round and a 5.3 litre V12 engine thrown in for free plus some change in the form of a free spare one assuming the lie that it broke down too often was even true.

Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 17th December 21:36

Blimey. You're dead keen on protectionism, aren't you?

The idea that the British car industry was anything other than a shambles from the 1950s on is a joke. Not because of the workers, but due to sheer management incompetence and complacency. In the early 1950s the work that Deming was doing with the Japanese was paving the way, and yet UK management dismissed his thinking out of hand. Notions of production engineering were barely understood, BMC didn't even have a clue how much it was costing them to build their cars.

I remember all too well the shoddy nature of cars back then. My dad always bought British, and used to trade his cars in after 45k miles. Couldn't trust them to be reliable after that.

I think the survival rates of German v Brit on a like with like basis of cars made in the day,such as that example,says differently even allowing for the Germans having more than double the purchase price tag to work with.Like the lie that North Sea oil was no good for making petrol you've had to wheel out that tired old BMC v BMW argument in an attempt to make the same tired old case.

Which leaves that question why were we suffering with fuel shortages and massive fuel cost price led inflation when we were a self sufficient oil producer.While obviously paying more than enough to import stuff that we could make better and ( much ) more cheaply for ourselves.

[NicD]

XJ,

three words for you - Cars workers unions

Back in the 80's, they didn't go well togther.

[JustAnotherLogin]

NicD said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

So that is the extent of your intellectual argument? "no-one can predict the future".

And FYI, I do very nicely from investments thanks very much.

Do you read all the words written, or pick out just one or two?

I did. None of the rest were relevant to the question I asked

But I shouldn't have expected better. You did say previously you wouldn't discuss policies. Does make an intellectual analysis difficult though. Without that the thread resorts to
"Farage is a stupid smug ****"; "Cameron is a toff liar"; "Milliband is an idiot who looks like Wallace" etc

No-one will be persuaded by that sort of rubbish

[NicD]

JustAnotherLogin said:

I did. None of the rest were relevant to the question I asked

But I shouldn't have expected better. You did say previously you wouldn't discuss policies. Does make an intellectual analysis difficult though. Without that the thread resorts to
"Farage is a stupid smug ****"; "Cameron is a toff liar"; "Milliband is an idiot who looks like Wallace" etc

No-one will be persuaded by that sort of rubbish

so why write it?
Please stick to the many things I write, but its late and I have been called to bed.

[Yazar]

JustAnotherLogin said:

Well lets try shall we.

Lets start with the UKIP proposal to leave the EU and negotiate trade agreements. It has often been said on here that Germany will be particularly keen to get the EU to negotiate such an agreement "because they have a trade surplus with us". Agree so far?

In 2013 6.9% of their exports went to the UK.

That 6.9% still makes us their 3rd largest export market, and rising as French trade with Germany is declining.

You think Germany will not be concerned at all about the net 32 Billion Euros a year they make from the UK? You realise they will have significant job losses because of it.

Also you realise that many of the profits from our 'exports' go straight to Germany? For example Siemens AG exports wind turbines to Germany from here, so its complicated.

Further they need what we export to them the most of (refined and crude petroleum) being a huge energy importer, we can survive fine without their largest exports (cars and car parts).

Edited by Yazar on Wednesday 17th December 23:06

[JustAnotherLogin]

Yazar said:

That 6.9% still makes us their 3rd largest export market.

You think Germany will not be concerned at all about the net 32 Billion Euros a year they make from the UK? You realise they will have significant job losses because of it.

Further they need what we export to them the most of (refined and crude petroleum) being a huge energy importer, we can survive fine without their largest exports (cars and car parts).

Losing 6.9% of exports would be a big issue for them. Losing 50% of ours would be catastrophic. In practice it would not come to that of course, and I have no doubt that a deal would be done, but be under no illusions that we will have the whip hand. In practice every UK exporter to the EU would also have to obey all the EU regulations in order to sell there - and most would need a local agent to handle CE marking.
Any tariff would hurt us far more than them, and even if we negotiate a perfect treaty with no tariffs and no additional regulation, our car and finance industry would be decimated

But NicD has faith in the British people to adjust and suddenly create new (unspecified but highly competitive) industries to replace the ones they lost. So it will all be alright

[XJ Flyer]

JustAnotherLogin said:

NicD said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

Don't judge everyone by your own standards. Some other people are open to intellectual arguments based on facts and evidence

I was going to be scathing but its water off your back.
Where these people?
From the antis, I see lots of pseudo intellectual posturing but little evidence or relevant facts and no openness.

You are welcome to go back over the many posts to attempt to prove your point.

Well lets try shall we.

Lets start with the UKIP proposal to leave the EU and negotiate trade agreements. It has often been said on here that Germany will be particularly keen to get the EU to negotiate such an agreement "because they have a trade surplus with us". Agree so far?

In 2013 6.9% of their exports went to the UK. Whereas approx 50% of UK exports go to the EU.

In addition, the UK finance sector is heavily dependent on being inside the EU for trading in Euro oriented markets

Furthermore trade treaties have to consider not only tariffs but regulations. The EU has already a set that deals with external trading partners, whereas we would have to start from scratch (as UKIP will sifting through the regulations they like). So the EU will have the advantage there too.

Lastly, for PHers particularly, there will be reluctance to give up on their beloved BMWS, Mercs, Porches, VWs, Ferraris, Lambos etc. Whereas the (now very large) UK car industry will mostly relocate to the EU to be inside the EU free trade area.

So. In what way will Germany have more to lose than us, and be more desperate than us to negotiate a treaty?

Firstly the relevant comparison would be our trade deficit with Germany specifically.Then a 'seperate' calculation concerning our trade with the EU in general in which case both Germany 'and' the EU as a whole have a lot more to lose in a trade war with us than we have to lose with them.

As for 'PHers' having to do 'their bit' as part of that trade war where's the difference between having to do that to save the country's economy and sovereignty in peacetime or having to do same in a proper war.IE sometimes personal interest has to be sacrificed for the national interest.

In this case is national interest in the form of buying the UK made alternatives so bad.Assuming that is we firstly put tax incentives on domestic made products by at least the removal of the EU contribution component of VAT and stopping all further EU contributions in total.While imposing punitive tarrifs on EU imports 'if' the EU wants a trade war just because we refuse to be part of a federal Europe in order to trade with Europe and hopefully want to create at least a situation of trade balance between us and the EU by way of tarrifs and quotas.

Which is what we 'should have' done in 1973 rather than go along with Heath's treacherous ideas.

[XJ Flyer]

NicD said:

XJ,

three words for you - Cars workers unions

Back in the 80's, they didn't go well togther.

It was more a case of price led inflation caused by giving away the advantages of our self sufficiency in oil to the benefit of Europe.

Together with EEC 'price harmonisation' and taxation to pay for our net EEC contributions.

Then the inevitable wage demands to meet those price increases and real terms reductions in wages.

No money to pay those wage demands.

All because the economy was being given away to our competitors by the Europhiles like Heath,Wilson,Callaghan,and Thatcher.The rest is history and it wasn't just the car industry.

Edited by XJ Flyer on Wednesday 17th December 23:18

[JustAnotherLogin]

XJ Flyer said:

Firstly the relevant comparison would be our trade deficit with Germany specifically.Then a 'seperate' calculation concerning our trade with the EU in general in which case both Germany 'and' the EU as a whole have a lot more to lose in a trade war with us than we have to lose with them.

No its not. Each individual EU country would have 7% (or so, obviously it varies) at stake. We would have 50%.

They would have more alternative export outlets than us (all we have, plus the other EU countries), for both sides at a loss.

In negotiations we would be at a massive disadvantage.

[vonuber]

Scuffers said:

I bet if you divide his MEP pay by the hours he puts in, the figure would be scary...

The figure for not actually doing his job as an MEP, which he is paid to do and claims expenses and an additional salary for his wife? Too damn fking right it's scary .

Edited by vonuber on Wednesday 17th December 23:37

[XJ Flyer]

JustAnotherLogin said:

XJ Flyer said:

Firstly the relevant comparison would be our trade deficit with Germany specifically.Then a 'seperate' calculation concerning our trade with the EU in general in which case both Germany 'and' the EU as a whole have a lot more to lose in a trade war with us than we have to lose with them.

No its not. Each individual EU country would have 7% (or so, obviously it varies) at stake. We would have 50%.

They would have more alternative export outlets than us (all we have, plus the other EU countries), for both sides at a loss.

In negotiations we would be at a massive disadvantage.

In this case we would hit the EU as a trading block in which case the relevant figure is the 'overall' UK/EU trade deficit.In addition to which is our net EU contributions which we can use to lower domestic taxation and why would 'they' supposedly have 'more' alternative trade outlets than 'us'.As usual the pro EU case trying to rely on using selective figures to make its case.As for Germany if we just take back the UK market from German imports that would probably be enough to make the EU blink first let alone us then hitting all the rest.

The fact is UK producers have more to gain in the form of a protected domestic market than they have to lose in the form of the EU or for that matter the global free market economy.As proved by our ever continuing trade deficit.

[powerstroke]

JustAnotherLogin said:

NicD said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

Don't judge everyone by your own standards. Some other people are open to intellectual arguments based on facts and evidence

I was going to be scathing but its water off your back.
Where these people?
From the antis, I see lots of pseudo intellectual posturing but little evidence or relevant facts and no openness.

You are welcome to go back over the many posts to attempt to prove your point.

Well lets try shall we.

Lets start with the UKIP proposal to leave the EU and negotiate trade agreements. It has often been said on here that Germany will be particularly keen to get the EU to negotiate such an agreement "because they have a trade surplus with us". Agree so far?

In 2013 6.9% of their exports went to the UK. Whereas approx 50% of UK exports go to the EU.

In addition, the UK finance sector is heavily dependent on being inside the EU for trading in Euro oriented markets

Furthermore trade treaties have to consider not only tariffs but regulations. The EU has already a set that deals with external trading partners, whereas we would have to start from scratch (as UKIP will sifting through the regulations they like). So the EU will have the advantage there too.

Lastly, for PHers particularly, there will be reluctance to give up on their beloved BMWS, Mercs, Porches, VWs, Ferraris, Lambos etc. Whereas the (now very large) UK car industry will mostly relocate to the EU to be inside the EU free trade area.

So. In what way will Germany have more to lose than us, and be more desperate than us to negotiate a treaty?

Yes the intire motor industry would leave we would be like post revolution Cuba having to make do and mend ancient cars
The sky would fall and we would suffer terrible global warming plague of locusts etc if we didn't have The EU to protect us..

[XJ Flyer]

Yazar said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

Well lets try shall we.

Lets start with the UKIP proposal to leave the EU and negotiate trade agreements. It has often been said on here that Germany will be particularly keen to get the EU to negotiate such an agreement "because they have a trade surplus with us". Agree so far?

In 2013 6.9% of their exports went to the UK.

That 6.9% still makes us their 3rd largest export market, and rising as French trade with Germany is declining.

You think Germany will not be concerned at all about the net 32 Billion Euros a year they make from the UK? You realise they will have significant job losses because of it.

Also you realise that many of the profits from our 'exports' go straight to Germany? For example Siemens AG exports wind turbines to Germany from here, so its complicated.

Further they need what we export to them the most of (refined and crude petroleum) being a huge energy importer, we can survive fine without their largest exports (cars and car parts).

Edited by Yazar on Wednesday 17th December 23:06

As I said at least in the case of Germany it has been a case of providing them with oil in exchange for stuff we don't need because we can make it ourselves.Meanwhile there's no way that the Germans were ever going to buy UK manufactured goods over their own,at least to the point of trade balance in manufactured goods between the two countries.

[anonymous-user]

FiF said:

Eh? What's up, is it your time of the month then?

Pretty funny, that, coming from someone who usually disparages the petty bickering from a seat on a high horse.

[Timsta]

More on the VAT issue: http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2014/12/17/new-eu-tax-law-...

[NicD]

JustAnotherLogin said:

I did. None of the rest were relevant to the question I asked

But I shouldn't have expected better. You did say previously you wouldn't discuss policies. Does make an intellectual analysis difficult though. Without that the thread resorts to
"Farage is a stupid smug ****"; "Cameron is a toff liar"; "Milliband is an idiot who looks like Wallace" etc

No-one will be persuaded by that sort of rubbish

Others may attempt to answer the 'question i (you) asked'. I won't bother till you stop playing the school swot.

This thread is about politics, about our present life in the UK (for me, England) and the future.

If you are happy with the way the UK operates now, then start to defend the various deficiencies that are the reason d'être of UKIP supporters.

Then we can have a debate.

[NicD]

Timsta said:

More on the VAT issue: http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2014/12/17/new-eu-tax-law-...

Similar came up for contractors with IR35, so various 'umbrella companies' emerged to remove the hassle factor. Of course, they also removed some of the cost advantage.

I imagine a similar structure will emerge for the small software sales industry where a company will take on the hassle for a percentage.
Cost of doing business.