UKIP - The Future - Volume 3

[JustAnotherLogin]

There is insufficient information to calculate an action probability

What we can do is hypothesise that the trend, if any, follows a linear, exponential, or polynomial (I have chosen 3rd order) pattern. Each of these can be down up, or in the latter case a series of curves in different directions.

We can then see what parameters of those curves give the best fit to the data (using least sum of squares). Or you can cheat and use excel to do exactly the same for you. Below are the 3 best fits to just Sun/You Gov polls since late October

Does it prove that support has definitely dropped? No
Does it show that it is more likely that support has dropped rather than increased or stayed static? Yes



You can of course do the same with the other pollsters and get similar results. Though I wouldn't advise it with Ashcroft because he changes his baseline to examine specific issues

[don4l]

JustAnotherLogin said:

There is insufficient information to calculate an action probability

What we can do is hypothesise that the trend, if any, follows a linear, exponential, or polynomial (I have chosen 3rd order) pattern. Each of these can be down up, or in the latter case a series of curves in different directions.

We can then see what parameters of those curves give the best fit to the data (using least sum of squares). Or you can cheat and use excel to do exactly the same for you. Below are the 3 best fits to just Sun/You Gov polls since late October

Does it prove that support has definitely dropped? No
Does it show that it is more likely that support has dropped rather than increased or stayed static? Yes



You can of course do the same with the other pollsters and get similar results. Though I wouldn't advise it with Ashcroft because he changes his baseline to examine specific issues

You appear to have nicked the global temperature chart for the last 18 years and 4 months.

... It also has the same statistical significance.

[MGJohn]

turbobloke said:

longblackcoat said:

dandarez said:

Blimey!
Why has this not had more airplay?

In all honesty, because it's simply not news.

When, in reality, it is.

It hasn't got its tits out, was that what you meant?

Like your style turbobloke, really like your style.

Nailed it right there !

[Axionknight]

A fine statistic is that general support at the polls has increased by in excess of 10% since the last election.

[dandarez]

longblackcoat said:

dandarez said:

Blimey!
Why has this not had more airplay?

In all honesty, because it's simply not news. Think about it - a non-representative sample of non-voters selected a candiate in a constituency where the Conservative candidate will, in reality, win at a canter with a minimum 10,000 majority, having had a 20k majority last time round.

Like I say, just not really news.

Non-voters?
I take you do realise school age groups today?
Some 18 year olds in the school in question who took part, inc the Head Girl, will be voting.

Of 1,168 pupils nearly a quarter put their X in the Kipper box. Not news, eh? Not news you or liblabcon want to hear perhap?

But then this school is not the usual brainwashed pc type.

Ofsted report is telling -
ENGLISH
'significantly' better than the national average, ensuring literacy needs of students are well met.
Students 'read' widely and often.
As a result all students are articulate and able to express their views well.

Yeah, we know!

[JustAnotherLogin]

If it news, then just consider. Since Hansard launched its mock election site in 2003, over 1 million children have taken part. Assume that it is the same number every year (actually its far more likely to be higher this year) that means that roughly 83000 children do it every year. At am average secondary school size of 950, that means about 88 schools will have done it in the last year.

And this is the first one that has been reported to vote for UKIP. And then only just

If constituencies go in the same proportion UKIP would win 7 or 8 seats.

Is that news Kippers should be celebrating?

[s2art]

JustAnotherLogin said:

If it news, then just consider. Since Hansard launched its mock election site in 2003, over 1 million children have taken part. Assume that it is the same number every year (actually its far more likely to be higher this year) that means that roughly 83000 children do it every year. At am average secondary school size of 950, that means about 88 schools will have done it in the last year.

And this is the first one that has been reported to vote for UKIP. And then only just

If constituencies go in the same proportion UKIP would win 7 or 8 seats.

Is that news Kippers should be celebrating?

Yes indeed, given that 7-8 is more than was predicted a few months ago. Obviously I would prefer more, but given UKIPs limited resources it would be a good haul and put them in a better position for 2020.

[Axionknight]

JustAnotherLogin said:

If it news, then just consider. Since Hansard launched its mock election site in 2003, over 1 million children have taken part. Assume that it is the same number every year (actually its far more likely to be higher this year) that means that roughly 83000 children do it every year. At am average secondary school size of 950, that means about 88 schools will have done it in the last year.

And this is the first one that has been reported to vote for UKIP. And then only just

If constituencies go in the same proportion UKIP would win 7 or 8 seats.

Is that news Kippers should be celebrating?

I suggested 8-10 so it's a tad disappointing, but I'll live another day. Anyway, many on here suggest that UKIP voters are fossils and ancients, so don't give it too much credit either for or against.

[dandarez]

JustAnotherLogin said:

If it news, then just consider. Since Hansard launched its mock election site in 2003, over 1 million children have taken part. Assume that it is the same number every year (actually its far more likely to be higher this year) that means that roughly 83000 children do it every year. At am average secondary school size of 950, that means about 88 schools will have done it in the last year.

And this is the first one that has been reported to vote for UKIP. And then only just

If constituencies go in the same proportion UKIP would win 7 or 8 seats.

Is that news Kippers should be celebrating?

Children? Now, now. 'YOUNG PEOPLE' surely? I thought you were pc?

Anyway, 11-18 year olds are the ones in these mock elections. Bet they like the description 'children'. Especially the 'teenagers'. I thought 'children' went to junior school, but what do I know?

But I digress. The POINT is we were led to believe the 'young' don't, won't, will never, vote UKIP. It's old codgers' club only, not the bright young things.

I think the Thomas Gainsborough School in question was named after some artist famed for his painting, 'Blue Boy'. Perhaps it it's a tinge of 'Purple Boy' now?

Shock coming.

Wait and see.

Oh, and your friend standing against Nigel, one Al Murray, had a rough day. Deemed too fat to parachute into Thanet, and then his day was utterly ruined when he was heckled and heckled ...by a 'real' pub landlord. Ha ha.

Roll on May 7.

[JustAnotherLogin]

You keep saying there will be a shock dandarez, but you refuse to say what it will be. Are you one of the (supposedly 25%) of kippers who think ukip will get a majority and garage will be PM? Or you going to jump out and say you were right if ukip get 11 instead if 10 MPs?

Have the courage of your convictions and say what you think will happen

[JustAnotherLogin]

You keep saying there will be a shock dandarez, but you refuse to say what it will be. Are you one of the (supposedly 25%) of kippers who think ukip will get a majority and garage will be PM? Or you going to jump out and say you were right if ukip get 11 instead if 10 MPs?

Have the courage of your convictions and say what you think will happen

[Mojocvh]

Farage on the NHS. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31883683

Better qualified

"I have now had three near-death experiences - cancer, an accident and a plane crash - and I've seen the best and worst of the NHS. I am better qualified to criticise and defend our health care system than most politicians," he writes.

"When I had cancer, the incompetence and negligence of the NHS almost killed me, but it has also saved my life. I am certainly not taking any flak from gutless politicians who claim that I am no fan or supporter of the NHS."

As always, straight up.

[anonymous-user]

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned,

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ice...

"Iceland drops bid to become part of European Union"

“Iceland’s interests are better served outside of the European Union,” the country’s foreign minister, Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson wrote on his website

[turbobloke]

It's been mentioned somewhere but can't recall which thread...possibly this one possibly another...still, good to see sense at work, including more than once!

[turbobloke]

PS it was here:

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

See comment from Blib and replies from me and others.

An interesting development

[anonymous-user]

Too many similar threads to read them all....

[turbobloke]

djstevec said:

Too many similar threads to read them all....

Totally, it's thread overload!

[Mojocvh]

djstevec said:

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned,

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ice...

"Iceland drops bid to become part of European Union"

“Iceland’s interests are better served outside of the European Union,” the country’s foreign minister, Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson wrote on his website

Ah so that’s where Putins got too....

[matchmaker]

They really should watch what they are saying...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-pol...

BBC said:

Humza Yousaf has called on a UKIP MEP to resign after the Scottish government minister was reportedly compared to a convicted terrorist.

In a newspaper interview, David Coburn is alleged to have said: "Humza Yousaf, or as I call him, Abu Hamza".

Has managed to unite all the main political parties in Scotland. That takes some doing!

BBC said:

Scotland's main political parties have united in condemning Mr Coburn's reported comments, with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon describing them as "reprehensible".

She added: "For David Coburn to effectively compare Humza to a convicted terrorist because he is Muslim is disgraceful and he must surely face consequences for that."

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy said: "This isn't the first time that Mr Coburn has been caught out for having vile views. People across Scotland, including even those who voted for him, will now want to see the back of him."

Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives tweeted: "Totally unacceptable. Our country is better than this. And he's got form. Mindless idiot."

Meanwhile, Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie called Mr Coburn "an offensive fool".

[s2art]

matchmaker said:

They really should watch what they are saying...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-pol...

BBC said:

Humza Yousaf has called on a UKIP MEP to resign after the Scottish government minister was reportedly compared to a convicted terrorist.

In a newspaper interview, David Coburn is alleged to have said: "Humza Yousaf, or as I call him, Abu Hamza".

Has managed to unite all the other political parties in Scotland.

BBC said:

Scotland's main political parties have united in condemning Mr Coburn's reported comments, with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon describing them as "reprehensible".

She added: "For David Coburn to effectively compare Humza to a convicted terrorist because he is Muslim is disgraceful and he must surely face consequences for that."

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy said: "This isn't the first time that Mr Coburn has been caught out for having vile views. People across Scotland, including even those who voted for him, will now want to see the back of him."

Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives tweeted: "Totally unacceptable. Our country is better than this. And he's got form. Mindless idiot."

Meanwhile, Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie called Mr Coburn "an offensive fool".

Sensitive aren't they. I think most Scots who voted for him/UKIP (and a lot of others) would be mildly amused by his comment.