Tory plan for Budget March 2015 to help win election
Discussion
Welshbeef said:
Well Govt borrowing is up 10% on last year... So give always would unless things improve look naive and the voters should realise.
However it raises a difficult issue for labour just how do you offer anything different to what the Tory's are delivering? Its either much more cuts or raising taxes. On the raising of Taxes IIRC income tax total take is c£130billion so to close the current deficit of £100billion would require the Labour Govt to increase income taxes by 75%.... Just think about that for a second! Now the realisation that cutting spending is the only option available - its needs to be quick else the EU recession issue will snowball and push us back to £160billion deficit before we know it + interest % on our borrowing will increase resulting in even more tax rises/spending cuts.
Tell us, how did such high levels of income tax help in years gone by?However it raises a difficult issue for labour just how do you offer anything different to what the Tory's are delivering? Its either much more cuts or raising taxes. On the raising of Taxes IIRC income tax total take is c£130billion so to close the current deficit of £100billion would require the Labour Govt to increase income taxes by 75%.... Just think about that for a second! Now the realisation that cutting spending is the only option available - its needs to be quick else the EU recession issue will snowball and push us back to £160billion deficit before we know it + interest % on our borrowing will increase resulting in even more tax rises/spending cuts.
Axionknight said:
Tell us, how did such high levels of income tax help in years gone by?
That is the point - so Labour have only one option to cut at a drastically higher rate than the Tory current actions plus the future plans. Considering that there is £25bilkion of committed spending cuts not yet identified to deal with by whoever is in power then add in a further £100billion of cuts just where do the cuts fall? Labours respondse is the economy will recover - what if it doesn't ? What is the plan B? Ah yes halve wealfare spend... 0% pay rises for a decade on oublic sector jobs removal on Final salary pensions for public sector Um what else as its still too much spending.
Axionknight said:
My understanding is that one government cannot hold the government that succeeds it to such an arrangement, only if the Tories claimed they would do it and used that to "drop Labour in it" would it work, and barely at all at that, as much of the electorate have a short memory.
Alistair Darling issued a spending review some time in 2009 with regards to tidying up the UK public spending figures by 2014/2015, but it was derided by just about everyone in Government as there was no way that the government that would end up winning the 2010 election could be held to account by such a plan.
One person who lambasted this idea/plan above all others was a certain George Osbourne - in opposition at the time, who has, since gaining office, made claims similar to those he derided with regards to spending plans continuing beyond the date of the 2015 election.
They would and have - labour has Torys have. A win win situation for party in powerAlistair Darling issued a spending review some time in 2009 with regards to tidying up the UK public spending figures by 2014/2015, but it was derided by just about everyone in Government as there was no way that the government that would end up winning the 2010 election could be held to account by such a plan.
One person who lambasted this idea/plan above all others was a certain George Osbourne - in opposition at the time, who has, since gaining office, made claims similar to those he derided with regards to spending plans continuing beyond the date of the 2015 election.
At its core, this country will continue to run in the red unless and until a government faces up to the NHS, benefits and pensions. Until that is done we are never going to truly resolve the situation, everything else (including foreign aid, EU contributions, defence, policing) is in the weeds
The Tories are addressing benefits - not there yet but made reasonable progress if you look at the graph I posted this morning
They daren't fully address Pensions or NHS as they would be slaughtered at the election. All they have done is stabilise it
UKIP (on current policy statments) have just said cut immigrants, which will not resolve the issue by a long way (even if you ignore the arguments about the benefits they bring)
Labour will make all 3 worse
LibDems I have no idea on, but I doubt it will matter.
Unfortunately, stating that one willl cut pensions or NHS, or doing so, guarantee to lose you the next election. Labour doing anything with benefits would do the same for them. So every party is ducking the issue. That is the big problem with the UK finances
The Tories are addressing benefits - not there yet but made reasonable progress if you look at the graph I posted this morning
They daren't fully address Pensions or NHS as they would be slaughtered at the election. All they have done is stabilise it
UKIP (on current policy statments) have just said cut immigrants, which will not resolve the issue by a long way (even if you ignore the arguments about the benefits they bring)
Labour will make all 3 worse
LibDems I have no idea on, but I doubt it will matter.
Unfortunately, stating that one willl cut pensions or NHS, or doing so, guarantee to lose you the next election. Labour doing anything with benefits would do the same for them. So every party is ducking the issue. That is the big problem with the UK finances
fblm said:
Welshbeef said:
But they will be setting up labour to fail - snookering them for a better term.
It would be nice if they could actually run the country for the benefit of the country and not adopt Labours disgusting scorched earth/poison pill tactics.Ian974 said:
Wouldn't it be nice if the main parties would look at an issue such as, I dunno, the budget deficit, figure out how best to sort it out and agree a way of fixing it, rather than trying as hard as they possibly can to sure the other guy isn't the one who fixes it.
If we the electorate gave them credit for that then they might. Unfortunately most of the electorate couldn't tell the difference between the deficit and a Hippoglosus stenolepiscrankedup said:
So what's the annual interest payment on our current deficit, about 50 billion.
Interest payment on our DEBT not the deficit. However were paying nearly £60billion in interest and our deficit is £100billion. But the deficit is from overspending on Welfare and the vast payrises Labour gave to nurses and doctors totally unfunded and remain as such - plus the public sector final salary pensions operate no fund and were seeing the outflows being £15billion and rocketing more than employees pay in.
Its impossible to create a state public sector pension fund so this issue will continue to grow in addition dwindling oil tax revenues - god only knows how SNP would have made it work as in Indy country their forecasts assumed min oil price $110 that's at the all time high range were at $80 a barrel today so a vast gap to plug with higher taxes.
Lib Dem manifesto photod here
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11178...
Naturally they will deny/ claim draft etc, nothing of interest or surprise really on show tho
"The papers being carried by Mr Coetzee set out four apparent "red lines" for any coalition negotiations.
There is a pledge to "balance the Budget by 2018" – two years earlier than the deadline Labour has set for eradicating the deficit.
On education, the party wants every child to have a qualified teacher, putting it at odds with the Tories. Commitments to protect spending for nurseries, schools and colleges also go further than their current partners in government.
On mental health, there will be waiting time targets similar to those for physical health conditions. And there is a pledge to raise the income tax threshold to £12,500 by 2020 by increasing taxes on the rich."
Other popular crap also there, mansion tax + GP's 7-7, 7 days a week (yeah right!), so lets hope peolpe do stop voting for them entirely, its clearly for the best all round as they're still fiddling with niff naff while Rome gets smoky.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11178...
Naturally they will deny/ claim draft etc, nothing of interest or surprise really on show tho
"The papers being carried by Mr Coetzee set out four apparent "red lines" for any coalition negotiations.
There is a pledge to "balance the Budget by 2018" – two years earlier than the deadline Labour has set for eradicating the deficit.
On education, the party wants every child to have a qualified teacher, putting it at odds with the Tories. Commitments to protect spending for nurseries, schools and colleges also go further than their current partners in government.
On mental health, there will be waiting time targets similar to those for physical health conditions. And there is a pledge to raise the income tax threshold to £12,500 by 2020 by increasing taxes on the rich."
Other popular crap also there, mansion tax + GP's 7-7, 7 days a week (yeah right!), so lets hope peolpe do stop voting for them entirely, its clearly for the best all round as they're still fiddling with niff naff while Rome gets smoky.
Edited by Croutons on Tuesday 21st October 19:45
JustAnotherLogin said:
At its core, this country will continue to run in the red unless and until a government faces up to the NHS, benefits and pensions. Until that is done we are never going to truly resolve the situation, everything else (including foreign aid, EU contributions, defence, policing) is in the weeds
The Tories are addressing benefits - not there yet but made reasonable progress if you look at the graph I posted this morning
They daren't fully address Pensions or NHS as they would be slaughtered at the election. All they have done is stabilise it
UKIP (on current policy statments) have just said cut immigrants, which will not resolve the issue by a long way (even if you ignore the arguments about the benefits they bring)
Labour will make all 3 worse
LibDems I have no idea on, but I doubt it will matter.
Unfortunately, stating that one willl cut pensions or NHS, or doing so, guarantee to lose you the next election. Labour doing anything with benefits would do the same for them. So every party is ducking the issue. That is the big problem with the UK finances
Agreed.The Tories are addressing benefits - not there yet but made reasonable progress if you look at the graph I posted this morning
They daren't fully address Pensions or NHS as they would be slaughtered at the election. All they have done is stabilise it
UKIP (on current policy statments) have just said cut immigrants, which will not resolve the issue by a long way (even if you ignore the arguments about the benefits they bring)
Labour will make all 3 worse
LibDems I have no idea on, but I doubt it will matter.
Unfortunately, stating that one willl cut pensions or NHS, or doing so, guarantee to lose you the next election. Labour doing anything with benefits would do the same for them. So every party is ducking the issue. That is the big problem with the UK finances
If the government "get serious" with the deficit, then it would have a major impact on growth, taking a spend of £100bn out of the economy would be a significant head wind to demand.
I fully agree it needs to be done, but Osbourne so far has done a decent job of maintaining growth. However I accept yesterdays numbers were awful.
I tend to agree though we aren't addressing the fundamentals, cut half of foreign aid (that's £6bn straight in the bank)
Tell every NHS trust, no more external management consultants, no more contractors and to reduce management staff by 10% across the board.
Welshbeef said:
crankedup said:
So what's the annual interest payment on our current deficit, about 50 billion.
Interest payment on our DEBT not the deficit. However were paying nearly £60billion in interest and our deficit is £100billion. But the deficit is from overspending on Welfare and the vast payrises Labour gave to nurses and doctors totally unfunded and remain as such - plus the public sector final salary pensions operate no fund and were seeing the outflows being £15billion and rocketing more than employees pay in.
Its impossible to create a state public sector pension fund so this issue will continue to grow in addition dwindling oil tax revenues - god only knows how SNP would have made it work as in Indy country their forecasts assumed min oil price $110 that's at the all time high range were at $80 a barrel today so a vast gap to plug with higher taxes.
You mention the oil revenues, agree they are one way only and that is down, hopefully the new revenue stream from fracking will eventually plug this particular hole. Small wonder the Government is keen to get the new fuel flowing.
fblm said:
crankedup said:
So what's the annual interest payment on our current deficit, about 50 billion.
Deficit, debt it's all so confusing. Are you Danny Alexander? 
I know, the times I get the two wrong. In future I will remember that the deficit is the Countries credit card. Hope that's correct.
Welshbeef said:
...But the deficit is from overspending on Welfare and the vast payrises Labour gave to nurses and doctors totally unfunded and remain as such - plus the public sector final salary pensions operate no fund and were seeing the outflows being £15billion and rocketing more than employees pay in.
Raise min wage & living wage policies sound good - amazed to see such "anti business" proposals from Tories though 
Reducing the govt spend on in work benefits would certainly help deficit reduction. Would be better to police/enforce the min wage and prevent abuse from employers / agencies. You can't blame labour spending for the deficit, it was a huge drop in tax receipts that pushed us into deficit. You can blame them for buying into the casino banks' economic miracle, and relying on their taxes to fund their political programme. The welfare bill rose in the recession, no great surprise.
This government has chosen specific tax & spend policies & they haven't worked very well for deficit reduction. I've got a few suggestions..some covered extensively on this forum..
Cut / reform EU CAP payments
Cut Stamp duty, VAT & other consumption/transaction taxes & replace with Land Value Tax
Reform company taxation - OECD plans for country by country reporting would be a start
Cut pension tax relief
Cut Trident replacement & other daft defence projects
Cut HS2
Cut GCHQ "war on terror" funding and put a stop to our surveillance state
and how about - Legalise drugs, regulate, tax, save massively on criminal justice & prisons costs.
Chipping away at the number of "managers" in the NHS isn't going to work. Making the "managers" more effective might help - getting them to act like managers rather than administrators filling in spreadsheets and sending reports to DH.
edh said:
You can't blame labour spending for the deficit, it was a huge drop in tax receipts that pushed us into deficit.
Sorry but that is bollocks, who are you trying to kid?Labour ran a budget deficit from 2002 onwards, almost immediately after the end of the period they had, to their credit, agreed to stick to the previous governments spending plans.
Tax receipts only dropped late 2008
And lastly even Ed Balls has finally admitted to running a structural deficit prior to the crisis, having previously denied it of course.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9633508/E...
If you don't know the difference between the budget deficit and a structural deficit google it. The former is expected in a regular economic cycle, the later will likely only ever end in disaster.
fblm said:
edh said:
You can't blame labour spending for the deficit, it was a huge drop in tax receipts that pushed us into deficit.
Sorry but that is bollocks, who are you trying to kid?Labour ran a budget deficit from 2002 onwards, almost immediately after the end of the period they had, to their credit, agreed to stick to the previous governments spending plans.
Tax receipts only dropped late 2008
And lastly even Ed Balls has finally admitted to running a structural deficit prior to the crisis, having previously denied it of course.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9633508/E...
If you don't know the difference between the budget deficit and a structural deficit google it. The former is expected in a regular economic cycle, the later will likely only ever end in disaster.
As for the Balls piece, I'd suggest the "structural" nature was more to do with assumptions on growth / tax income from illusory bank profits. Declaring profits at a bank sounds like it's based on a million assumptions. As I said, Labour bought the banks' fabrications..
I read this the other day on bank profits..
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-15/b...
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