Putin:- Playtime is over.....

[Octoposse]

Transmitter Man said:

Octoposse said:

And the economy looks OK for now at street level in Moscow.

Could write more, but somebody is demanding a cuddle . . .

I'll call a rain-check on the cuddle.

Could you please explain the 'street level' power of the Ruble?

Not scientifically! But the ones in my wallet worked well enough, I cadged a free glass of bubly at a Land Rover dealership, and Louis Vuitton dresses still seemed to be selling.

OK, that's central Moscow and it's a big country, but I certainly didn't get a sense of economic crisis. Only scientific measure I can apply is the Children's Playground Index which is up 500% in two years - every courtyard in residential areas now boasts colourful decent quality play equipment.

[Transmitter Man]

So do you think the interest rate rise will hurt the buying power of your average Russian sooner or later, especially if it continues to rise to say 15%?

Phil

[Octoposse]

Transmitter Man said:

So do you think the interest rate rise will hurt the buying power of your average Russian sooner or later, especially if it continues to rise to say 15%?

Seriously no idea. The only visible (to me) indication of the high interest rates were advertisements in bank windows offering attention grabbing rates to savers.

Presumably consumer credit isn't as significant in Russia as the UK? Certainly the people I know who have Russian 'credit cards' have to pre-load them at cash machines. Given that, I'd speculate that the effects of higher interest rates would be:
- Decrease capital flight, support the value of the Ruble, reduce domestic inflation;
- Increase domestic saving rates, both by reducing current consumption and tempting banknotes out from under mattresses;
- Impact commercial investment adversely.

All above just speculation on my part . . . the international system is more my specialist subject than Russian economics (and academically I'm a few years out of date on that as well, although I'd argue that nothing in principle has changed since 18 January 1871)!

[ATG]

Octoposse said:

es. Abso-bloomin-lutely. (Which bit in particular do you question?).

The whole lot I'm afraid.

[davepoth]

Octoposse said:

eriously no idea. The only visible (to me) indication of the high interest rates were advertisements in bank windows offering attention grabbing rates to savers.

Presumably consumer credit isn't as significant in Russia as the UK? Certainly the people I know who have Russian 'credit cards' have to pre-load them at cash machines. Given that, I'd speculate that the effects of higher interest rates would be:
- Decrease capital flight, support the value of the Ruble, reduce domestic inflation;
- Increase domestic saving rates, both by reducing current consumption and tempting banknotes out from under mattresses;
- Impact commercial investment adversely.

All above just speculation on my part . . . the international system is more my specialist subject than Russian economics (and academically I'm a few years out of date on that as well, although I'd argue that nothing in principle has changed since 18 January 1871)!

You aren't far off I'd guess. Those that are rich enough have moved most stuff offshore already, and those that aren't probably can't afford credit anyway. Even with the high interest rates, I would imagine that they are merely keeping pace with inflation. Putin doesn't really care though. The population outside of the cities seem quite happy with the idea of a return to a planned economy.

[Transmitter Man]

Octoposse said:

Transmitter Man said:

So do you think the interest rate rise will hurt the buying power of your average Russian sooner or later, especially if it continues to rise to say 15%?

Seriously no idea. The only visible (to me) indication of the high interest rates were advertisements in bank windows offering attention grabbing rates to savers.

Presumably consumer credit isn't as significant in Russia as the UK? Certainly the people I know who have Russian 'credit cards' have to pre-load them at cash machines. Given that, I'd speculate that the effects of higher interest rates would be:
- Decrease capital flight, support the value of the Ruble, reduce domestic inflation;
- Increase domestic saving rates, both by reducing current consumption and tempting banknotes out from under mattresses;
- Impact commercial investment adversely.

All above just speculation on my part . . . the international system is more my specialist subject than Russian economics (and academically I'm a few years out of date on that as well, although I'd argue that nothing in principle has changed since 18 January 1871)!

I thought that the Ruble was already being propped up.

I forsee dollar continuing to rise and gold going down, this time bigtime.

This will sting Putin being I believe the worlds largest gold producer.

Oil price will be kept low, the king of Saudi does not fart without first getting permission from the US.

Someone has to reign in Putin and 'it will happen'.

As a by product the Chinese will also squeak.

Phil

[TobyLaRohne]

greygoose said:

smegmore said:

Where's XJFlyer when you need him......

In his bunker with 10,000 tins of beans and a hard on?

This actually made me laugh out loud in the office!

[DMN]

Transmitter Man said:

Oil price will be kept low, the king of Saudi does not fart without first getting permission from the US.

The NY Times has hinted that the US and Saudi are waging economic war agianst Russia and Syria. They broke Russia once, they'll do it again.

[Bluebarge]

Wacky Racer said:

1. Russia will no longer play games and engage in back-room negotiations over trifles. But Russia is prepared for serious conversations and agreements, if these are conducive to collective security, are based on fairness and take into account the interests of each side.

2. All systems of global collective security now lie in ruins. There are no longer any international security guarantees at all. And the entity that destroyed them has a name: The United States of America.

3. The builders of the New World Order have failed, having built a sand castle. Whether or not a new world order of any sort is to be built is not just Russia’s decision, but it is a decision that will not be made without Russia.

4. Russia favours a conservative approach to introducing innovations into the social order, but is not opposed to investigating and discussing such innovations, to see if introducing any of them might be justified.

5. Russia has no intention of going fishing in the murky waters created by America’s ever-expanding “empire of chaos,” and has no interest in building a new empire of her own (this is unnecessary; Russia’s challenges lie in developing her already vast territory). Neither is Russia willing to act as a savior of the world, as she had in the past.

6. Russia will not attempt to reformat the world in her own image, but neither will she allow anyone to reformat her in their image. Russia will not close herself off from the world, but anyone who tries to close her off from the world will be sure to reap a whirlwind.

7. Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it. Russia does not war—nor does she fear it.

8. Russia does not intend to take an active role in thwarting those who are still attempting to construct their New World Order—until their efforts start to impinge on Russia’s key interests. Russia would prefer to stand by and watch them give themselves as many lumps as their poor heads can take. But those who manage to drag Russia into this process, through disregard for her interests, will be taught the true meaning of pain.

9. In her external, and, even more so, internal politics, Russia’s power will rely not on the elites and their back-room dealing, but on the will of the people.

To these nine points I would like to add a tenth:

10. There is still a chance to construct a new world order that will avoid a world war. This new world order must of necessity include the United States—but can only do so on the same terms as everyone else: subject to international law and international agreements; refraining from all unilateral action; in full respect of the sovereignty of other nations.

To sum it all up: play-time is over. Children, put away your toys. Now is the time for the adults to make decisions. Russia is ready for this; is the world?



http://www.infowars.com/putin-to-western-elites-pl...

That summary bears no relation to the actual speech. It seems to have been written by someone with posters of muscly bare-chested Vlad on his wall.

Putin's speech didn't say anything he hadn't said before - which is "Don't ignore Russia". To which the answer is to increase NATO defence spending, keep the sanctions screw on and suppress the oil price.

[Neonblau]

ATG said:

Putin views international relations from the perspective of someone stuck in the 19th century. The rest of the world had moved on.

Very true, all the old paranoia is coming back:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/unpatri...

[scherzkeks]

Neonblau said:

Very true, all the old paranoia is coming back:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/unpatri...

From a pro-Western paper created entirely for Western expats in Russia. Not sure I'd put much stock in that if objectivity is of interest.

[Neonblau]

scherzkeks said:

From a pro-Western paper created entirely for Western expats in Russia. Not sure I'd put much stock in that if objectivity is of interest.

The irony is strong in that statement.

[FredClogs]

Talk of "reaping whirlwinds" etc... strikes me as a man in trouble

[FredClogs]

I forwarded this link to a pal who actually read the speech and suggested that none of the "10 salient points" that appear in the bloggers summary actually appear in the speech in anywhere near the suggestion that the summary makes out.

Added to that the amount of Alec Jones self promotion on that website and I'm calling bull st.

[scherzkeks]

Neonblau said:

The irony is strong in that statement.

Then you should easily be able to point it out.

[Esseesse]

FredClogs said:

I forwarded this link to a pal who actually read the speech and suggested that none of the "10 salient points" that appear in the bloggers summary actually appear in the speech in anywhere near the suggestion that the summary makes out.

Added to that the amount of Alec Jones self promotion on that website and I'm calling bull st.

I read the speech (on my iPhone!) and I did think the 10 points seemed to be pretty far off the mark.

[XJ Flyer]

DMN said:

Transmitter Man said:

Oil price will be kept low, the king of Saudi does not fart without first getting permission from the US.

The NY Times has hinted that the US and Saudi are waging economic war agianst Russia and Syria. They broke Russia once, they'll do it again.

The great US and Saudi alliance against Syria.Great idea Saudi continues to support IS etc while Assad tries to stop them taking over the whole region.As for economic war against Russia the last time America tried that was against Japan before Pearl Harbour.The difference this time being that Russia isn't the same pushover that Japan was.Although what can you expect from a country that answered a massive Saudi based attack on New York by turning Iraq into either greater Iran or IS whichever wins out and getting involved in a 13 year wild goose chase in Afghanistan.While China continues to get ever stronger economically and militarily in the global free market economy.

Edited by XJ Flyer on Tuesday 4th November 14:43

[Neonblau]

scherzkeks said:

Then you should easily be able to point it out.

Stop digging.

[DMN]

XJ Flyer said:

DMN said:

Transmitter Man said:

Oil price will be kept low, the king of Saudi does not fart without first getting permission from the US.

The NY Times has hinted that the US and Saudi are waging economic war agianst Russia and Syria. They broke Russia once, they'll do it again.

The great US and Saudi alliance against Syria.Great idea Saudi continues to support IS etc while Assad tries to stop them taking over the whole region.As for economic war against Russia the last time America tried that was against Japan before Pearl Harbour.The difference this time being that Russia isn't the same pushover that Japan was.Although what can you expect from a country that answered a massive Saudi based attack on New York by turning Iraq into either greater Iran or IS whichever wins out and getting involved in a 13 year wild goose chase in Afghanistan.While China continues to get ever stronger economically and militarily in the global free market economy.

Edited by XJ Flyer on Tuesday 4th November 14:43

Four days and thats all you could muster?

So much dissapoint.

[Bluebarge]

FredClogs said:

I forwarded this link to a pal who actually read the speech and suggested that none of the "10 salient points" that appear in the bloggers summary actually appear in the speech in anywhere near the suggestion that the summary makes out.

You have a man who does the reading for you? That's very PH

My butler only irons my paper the lazy git